2016-09-30 11:56

I promised a list of the playoff contenders and I decided to build it in 3 categories, "Ahead", "In needs of a great goalline stand" and "In need of a Hail Mary".

For a power 5 school this will basically mean, unbeaten, 1-loss or 2-loss. A 3-loss team is out as long as the unbeaten field is not thinned out to zero.
A group of 5 / non-power 5 team can never be "ahead" and is therefore ruled out as 2-loss team.

So far the conference are still crowded with teams under those 3 categories and I will make a comment on them for their conference, too.
The teams are not in a special sorting, just by conference and name.
Later in the season I will start sorting them, when the pool got smaller and smaller.

"Ahead"
Clemson Atlantic Coast Conference
With Louisville leading candidate for the ACC

Louisville Atlantic Coast Conference
With Clemson leading candidate for the ACC

Miami Atlantic Coast Conference
Only unbeaten team in the Coastal, might fall soon

Wake Forest Atlantic Coast Conference
Surprisingly unbeaten, believed to be an outsider

Baylor Big 12 Conference
At the moment with West Virginia the only hope for the Big12

West Virginia Big 12 Conference
At the moment with Baylor the only hope for the Big12

Maryland Big Ten Conference
Surprisingly unbeaten, believed to be an outsider

Michigan Big Ten Conference
Believed to be a favorite for the Big10

Minnesota Big Ten Conference
Surprisingly unbeaten, believed to be an outsider

Nebraska Big Ten Conference
Will challenge Wisconsin for the division

Ohio State Big Ten Conference
Believed to be a favorite for the Big10

Wisconsin Big Ten Conference
Did play themselves into the favorite role for their division

Arizona State Pac-12 Conference
Surprisingly unbeaten, believed to be an outsider

Stanford Pac-12 Conference
With Washington the favorite to win the PAC12

Utah Pac-12 Conference
The Favorite to win the PAC12 South

Washington Pac-12 Conference
With Stanford the favorite to win the PAC12

Alabama Southeastern Conference
Favorite to win the SEC

Tennessee Southeastern Conference
At the moment the favorite to win the SEC East

Texas A&M Southeastern Conference
Did play themselves into the leading contender against Alabama

"In needs of a great goalline stand"
Houston American Athletic
Favorite to win the AAC and believed to be the only group of 5 team to really have a chance to get a playoff spot

Memphis American Athletic
So far unbeaten, but only outsider

Navy American Athletic
Did show not the performance of last season, outsider

Florida State Atlantic Coast Conference
Lost to Louisville and will face Clemson soon

Georgia Tech Atlantic Coast Conference
Not really a contender, outsider

NC State Atlantic Coast Conference
So far better than expected, but an outsider

North Carolina Atlantic Coast Conference
Will play for the Coastal division

Virginia Tech Atlantic Coast Conference
Surprisingly good so far, but believed to be an outsider

Kansas State Big 12 Conference
Not really a contender, outsider

TCU Big 12 Conference
Will challenge all teams for the Big12 title

Texas Big 12 Conference
Did show some progress, but believed to be an outsider

Texas Tech Big 12 Conference
Not really a contender, outsider

Indiana Big Ten Conference
So far not really tested, outsider

Iowa Big Ten Conference
Lost against North Dakota State (FCS) and will have to work themselves back into the ranks the hard way

Michigan State Big Ten Conference
Lost heavily against Wisconsin, outsider

Purdue Big Ten Conference
So far not really tested, outsider

Toledo Mid-American Conference
So far not really tested, outsider

Western Michigan Mid-American Conference
Played good so far, could crash the party, at least for the Bowl spot as MAC Champ

Air Force Mountain West Conference
So far not really tested, outsider

Boise State Mountain West Conference
Did win some bigger games, favorite to win the MWC

San Diego State Mountain West Conference
Will challenge Boise for the MWC

Colorado Pac-12 Conference
Surprisingly with only 1 loss, will be tested further

Arkansas Southeastern Conference
Lost against Texas A&M, is still in the mix for the SEC West

Florida Southeastern Conference
Did struggle against Tennessee, will contend for the SEC East

Georgia Southeastern Conference
Did lose big time against Ole Miss, still in the mix for the SEC East

"In need of a Hail Mary"
Cincinnati American Athletic
Lost against Houston, outsider

South Florida American Athletic
Will compete for the AAC

Tulsa American Athletic
Surprisingly lost so far only 1 time, outsider

Boston College Atlantic Coast Conference
Is not done yet, but outsider

Duke Atlantic Coast Conference
Is not done yet, but outsider

Pittsburgh Atlantic Coast Conference
Will challenge UNC and Miami for the coastal division

Syracuse Atlantic Coast Conference
Is not done yet, but outsider

Kansas Big 12 Conference
Was not really tested yet, outsider

Oklahoma Big 12 Conference
Lost 2 crucial games, might be toast sooner than later

Oklahoma State Big 12 Conference
Lost 1 against a MAC team on a bad call, might slip back, but likely outsider

Illinois Big Ten Conference
Is not done yet, but outsider

Penn State Big Ten Conference
Lost some close ones, will likely not survive against the favorites

Rutgers Big Ten Conference
Is not done yet, but outsider

Middle Tennessee Conference USA
Will compete for the CUSA

Southern Mississippi Conference USA
Will compete for the CUSA

Army FBS Independents
Is surprisingly still alive, outsider

Ball State Mid-American Conference
Is not done yet, but outsider

Central Michigan Mid-American Conference
Is not done yet, but outsider

Eastern Michigan Mid-American Conference
Is not done yet, but outsider

Arizona Pac-12 Conference
Is not done yet, but outsider

California Pac-12 Conference
Lost already 2 games, will likely fall fast

Oregon Pac-12 Conference
Lost against Colorado, which is not a good sign. Might be soon eliminated

Oregon State Pac-12 Conference
Is not done yet, but outsider

UCLA Pac-12 Conference
Will play for the South division

Washington State Pac-12 Conference
Is not done yet, but outsider

Auburn Southeastern Conference
Is not done yet, but outsider

Kentucky Southeastern Conference
Will likely not challenge the favorites for the SEC East

LSU Southeastern Conference
Is not done yet, but outsider

Mississippi State Southeastern Conference
Is not done yet, but outsider

Missouri Southeastern Conference
Did play strong against Georgia, but lost, outsider

Ole Miss Southeastern Conference
Is still in the mix for the SEC West, but only outsider

South Carolina Southeastern Conference
Is not done yet, but outsider

Vanderbilt Southeastern Conference
Is not done yet, but outsider

Georgia Southern Sun Belt Conference
A Sun Belt team as playoff candidate is VERY unlikely, outsider

Troy Sun Belt Conference
A Sun Belt team as playoff candidate is VERY unlikely, outsider

Wow, that's still a list of 79 teams out of 128.
The reason of having still such a high number after 4 gamedays is the amount of FCS games.
The list would be much shorter of the 128 teams would have played only against each other.

The good news is, the list will become shorter very fast, since the main part of the season is about to get into full speed and we will see a lot of conference games.

As usual it will be fun to see, whether some teams or even conference will shot themselves into the foot over the next 2 month and what the final fall out will be.
It will start with this week, where some really good games are coming up.

Let's have a look at the BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 5

Fri. Sept. 30 - 9:00 PM ET
#7 Stanford @ #10 Washington
I had Washington as favorite to win the PAC12 North in my preview, but the 4 wins they have so far did not look THAT convincing, especially when they almost fell to Arizona last week.
On the other hand did Stanford also not really dominate the games they played so far they just won them.
The difference is, they had from my point of view some better quality as opponent and still won, while the Huskies had more or less 3 pushovers and Arizona.
If this would be in Palo Alto I would give Stanford the edge here, but this is in Seattle, which does change this a bit.
Vegas sees Washington ahead with 3.5 points, which is not much.
I think both teams do have a chance to win this, my gut feeling says that it will be indeed a close game and Washington will hold the Cardinals off.
Huskies win.

Sat. Oct. 1 - 3:30 PM ET
#11 Tennessee @ #25 Georgia
This will be a very nice game regarding the SEC East power rankings.
Georgia did look ahead of rebuilding schedule under a new coach until Ole Miss did crush them, and Tennessee did look like they would not fulfill their preseason hype of winning the SEC East and seemed to get grow into that role during the Florida game last week.
At the moment does look Tennessee very good, but this might just be a misleading interpretation.
They are 3.5 point favorite by Vegas and my gut feeling is they will beat Georgia by a even higher margin.
The crucial part is, they have to play up to their full potential.
Georgia is from talent point of view by far not a bad team, in fact I would say they should be better than the Vols, if the team would be 100%.
Based on the growing pains a team has when a new coach comes in and changes the system, they do not click in synch so far, which gives Tennessee the chance to exploit the weaknesses and win the game.
Volunteers win.

Sat. Oct. 1 - 3:30 PM ET
#8 Wisconsin @ #4 Michigan
I'm impressed by the Badgers.
They did beat LSU (which is maybe not that big, but it was on the road), they beat 2 mid to low level team and they did beat Michigan State on the road by a high margin.
Is that enough to beat the high flying Michigan Wolverines in the big house?
The Wolverines can be proud of their wins against Penn State and Colorado (even when Colorado might not be THAT good).
Believe it or not, but Vegas sees Michigan as 10.5 points favorite.
That's big.
Do I believe in a Badgers upset?
No.
Will they lose by 10+ points?
Maybe, but I have doubts.
The main reason for that is, that Wisconsin might be not good enough to hold of Michigan all day long, but very likely often enough to stay in the game.
They can defend and they can score.
It might be that the Wolverines will deliver another 40-burger here, but I doubt it.
Wolverines win in a close one.

Sat. Oct. 1 - 3:30 PM ET
North Carolina @ #12 Florida State
I did pick this one as TOP game, because it feature two ACC teams which do both content for their divisions and which might play in the ACC title game later.
The chances for North Carolina are a bit better than for Florida State, which is only that way, because the Atlantic division is a 3 team struggle between Clemson, Louisville and Florida State and FSU has already lost to Louisville and does look at the moment clearly as 3rd best team out of that group, while the Coastal division is wide open and North Carolina has the maturity which might be needed to stay focused until season end.
They won against Pitt, which gives them a great head-to-head-compare.
Still, FSU is a 10.5 point favorite here and this will very likely come down to the defense of the Tar Heels.
If they can't keep FSU in check, they will lose. Fast.
I think North Carolina will put up points against FSU and they will have to stop FSU from matching that performance.
Last week was South Florida not able to do that, but maybe North Carolina CAN do that.
I expect a close game, but pick FSU as the winner.
Seminoles win.

Sat. Oct. 1 - 7:00 PM ET
#3 Louisville @ #5 Clemson
This is the game of the week.
Louisville is the Clemson of last season and Clemson is ... still Clemson, only with some problems in QB performance.
If Louisville can bring their A-game and Clemson still delivers the way it has done it the past few weeks, the Cardinals will win.
I think it's all a question of motivation and determination.
I pick Louisville as winner, based on their momentum and the fact that Clemson has not shown any signs of last seasons determination.
Cardinals win.

Other interesting games:

Sat. Oct. 1 - 12:00 PM ET
#22 Texas @ Oklahoma State
Texas has some issues and Oklahoma had also some. In a perfect world Oklahoma State would still have only 1 loss, but it's not the case.
I pick Texas, because the Cowboys seemed to have some issues on both sides of the ball. As does Texas, but I trust Strong more to fix that.
Longhorns win.

Sat. Oct. 1 - 12:00 PM ET
#14 Miami @ Georgia Tech
GT lost only to Clemson, which was the preseason favorite to win the ACC, so far and will test the upcoming Miami, at home. I think they will give Miami something to work with, but Richt has a deep history against GT and I think Miami can win this.
Hurricanes win.

Sat. Oct. 1 - 3:30 PM ET
Navy @ Air Force
Who will get the Commander-In-Chief-Trophy? With Army a bit better this season, this game here might not be the real deciding game, but likely it will give us a hint.
I think Air Force will win here, at home, against a reloading Navy team.
Falcons win.

Sat. Oct. 1 - 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma @ #21 TCU
Oklahoma is almost done for the season. TCU can deliver a heavy blow on contention plans and can also boost their chance to win the BIG12.
I pick them as home team and as it seems, better coached team.
Horned Frogs win.

Sat. Oct. 1 - 7:00 PM ET
Memphis @ #16 Ole Miss
Very interesting game. Memphis is a quite high flying team and Ole Miss did blow some leads in the past few games, so maybe Memphis can win here.
In the best of all worlds, Ole Miss will stomp them. We will see. I still pick Ole Miss, but I expect a fun, close, game.
Rebels win.

Tags: Block of Granite