no content
AdBlocker active?
It seems you are using software to block advertisements. You could help us if you could switch it off when visiting redzoneaction.org.
The reason is very simple: Advertisements help us running the site, to offer you the game in a good quality for free. So if you like the game, please support us by purchasing a Supporter Account or disabling the AdBlocker on this site.
Thank you very much!
| Main / Discussions / Unlikely big plays after sacks Search Forum | |
| Navigation: |< 2 3 4 > >| | |
| Poster | Message |
|
Cheesehead
|
posted: 2017-01-03 12:48:10 (ID: 100094982) Report Abuse |
|
The end of last season and this season I'm playing more aggressively with the blitz and I've seen an uptick in sacks as a result. However I've also noticed really big plays after a sack (see examples below).
This would not be strange in the NFL but in RZA we never try to throw over 10 yards as it's basically suicide. It seems however that when a a sack has occurred the frequency of a really big play increases dramatically as I never ever see big plays over 12-14 yards...unless there is a big play and the ball is taken to the house (in which case you can see a 65 yard play for example). Here however the ball is not taken to the house but is just over the distance required to get the first down. Has anyone else seen this as well? EXAMPLES: Q4 6:04 3 and 27 to go on own 6, Gelu Codrea (OC) snaps the ball to Samir Fras (QB), Samir Fras (QB) selected Constantino Márquez (WR/R) as target, Roderique Boshoff (MLB) goes for the blitz, this outer right pass goes to the receiver, who catches the ball, the tackle was missed by Luke Calvert (CB/L), Dominique Maisonneuve (MLB) made the tackle, forward progress: 29 yards, New first down (I-formation vs. 5-2) more Q4 14:04 2 and 18 to go on own 34, Toby Purnell (OC) snaps the ball to Samir Fras (QB), Samir Fras (QB) selected Berthold Schreiber (TE/L) as target, Abbas Hasan (OLB/R) goes for the blitz, John King (FB/R) blocks, the pass goes inner left to the receiver, who catches the ball, Sudarak Supachai (CB/R) made the tackle, forward progress: 20 yards, New first down (Shotgun 2 WR vs. 3-3-5) more 7:25 2 and 20 to go on own 40, Peter Forman (OC) snaps the ball to Dennis Baylor (QB), Dennis Baylor (QB) selected Lyle Salley (WR/R) as target, Adrian Barlow (DE/R) breaks through the line, the receiver of this inner right pass catches the ball, Luke Calvert (CB/L) made the tackle, forward progress: 24 yards, New first down (Singleback Spread vs. 3-3-5) 7:25 2 and 20 to go on own 40, Peter Forman (OC) snaps the ball to Dennis Baylor (QB), Dennis Baylor (QB) selected Lyle Salley (WR/R) as target, Adrian Barlow (DE/R) breaks through the line, the receiver of this inner right pass catches the ball, Luke Calvert (CB/L) made the tackle, forward progress: 24 yards, New first down (Singleback Spread vs. 3-3-5) |
|
| Quote Reply Edit | |
|
Buddy Ryan
|
posted: 2017-01-03 12:55:20 (ID: 100094985) Report Abuse |
|
Cheesehead wrote:
This would not be strange in the NFL but in RZA we never try to throw over 10 yards as it's basically suicide. It seems however that when a a sack has occurred the frequency of a really big play increases dramatically as I never ever see big plays over 12-14 yards...unless there is a big play and the ball is taken to the house (in which case you can see a 65 yard play for example). Here however the ball is not taken to the house but is just over the distance required to get the first down. Has anyone else seen this as well? yep, a lot, and it really is annoying, since defenses in RZA dont have many options against the strong passing formations anyway. and these frequent 10+ yard passes after sacks seem to come at the same rate as way shorter (and easier) 3rd down situations get converted which is frustrating for a defensive-minded team. to me it seems the riscs of medium and long passes are "off" when its within the distance needed to convert for a 1st down - like the risc of an INT on a 3rd and 5 pass might be the same as on 3rd and 17. but if you go deep in a 2nd and 1 situation, watch out... |
|
| Quote Reply Edit | |
|
hollyhh2000
|
posted: 2017-01-03 13:40:41 (ID: 100094990) Report Abuse |
|
Buddy Ryan wrote:
Cheesehead wrote:
This would not be strange in the NFL but in RZA we never try to throw over 10 yards as it's basically suicide. It seems however that when a a sack has occurred the frequency of a really big play increases dramatically as I never ever see big plays over 12-14 yards...unless there is a big play and the ball is taken to the house (in which case you can see a 65 yard play for example). Here however the ball is not taken to the house but is just over the distance required to get the first down. Has anyone else seen this as well? yep, a lot, and it really is annoying, since defenses in RZA dont have many options against the strong passing formations anyway. and these frequent 10+ yard passes after sacks seem to come at the same rate as way shorter (and easier) 3rd down situations get converted which is frustrating for a defensive-minded team. to me it seems the riscs of medium and long passes are "off" when its within the distance needed to convert for a 1st down - like the risc of an INT on a 3rd and 5 pass might be the same as on 3rd and 17. but if you go deep in a 2nd and 1 situation, watch out... I agree that it is frustrating if an offense converts on 3rd and very long time and again, while the long pass on 2nd and 1, which should be far more dangerous gets picked at an alarming rate. However, fortunately the conversion rate is not that good on 3rd and 11+ last Elite season: Just passing 3rd and 1: 66,4% Conversion Rate 3rd and 2-3 65,5% Conversion Rate 3rd and 4-6 48,3 % Conversion Rate 3rd and 7-10 24,3% Conversion Rate 3rd and 11-20 25,8% Conversion Rate 3rd and 15-20 14,2% Conversion Rate so it is not that bad and quite reasonable ( imo 3rd and very long should be even lower and with higher turnover rate). I think what really is not reasonable , is the extremely high turnover rate on medium passes in short situation |
|
| Quote Reply Edit | |
|
Cheesehead
|
posted: 2017-01-03 13:57:24 (ID: 100094996) Report Abuse |
|
But I think we are just talking about long plays after a sack and not even necessarily on 3rd down so those statistics are not that useful for this discussion.
To me it feels like it's an issue in the engine like Buddy Ryan says where a different calculation seems to be used for those long plays after a sack. But it's empirical hence why I created this thread to see if others are seeing the same. |
|
| Quote Reply Edit | |
|
Meitheisman
|
posted: 2017-01-03 14:15:09 (ID: 100094997) Report Abuse |
|
hollyhh2000 wrote:
Buddy Ryan wrote:
Cheesehead wrote:
This would not be strange in the NFL but in RZA we never try to throw over 10 yards as it's basically suicide. It seems however that when a a sack has occurred the frequency of a really big play increases dramatically as I never ever see big plays over 12-14 yards...unless there is a big play and the ball is taken to the house (in which case you can see a 65 yard play for example). Here however the ball is not taken to the house but is just over the distance required to get the first down. Has anyone else seen this as well? yep, a lot, and it really is annoying, since defenses in RZA dont have many options against the strong passing formations anyway. and these frequent 10+ yard passes after sacks seem to come at the same rate as way shorter (and easier) 3rd down situations get converted which is frustrating for a defensive-minded team. to me it seems the riscs of medium and long passes are "off" when its within the distance needed to convert for a 1st down - like the risc of an INT on a 3rd and 5 pass might be the same as on 3rd and 17. but if you go deep in a 2nd and 1 situation, watch out... I agree that it is frustrating if an offense converts on 3rd and very long time and again, while the long pass on 2nd and 1, which should be far more dangerous gets picked at an alarming rate. However, fortunately the conversion rate is not that good on 3rd and 11+ last Elite season: Just passing 3rd and 1: 66,4% Conversion Rate 3rd and 2-3 65,5% Conversion Rate 3rd and 4-6 48,3 % Conversion Rate 3rd and 7-10 24,3% Conversion Rate 3rd and 11-20 25,8% Conversion Rate 3rd and 15-20 14,2% Conversion Rate so it is not that bad and quite reasonable ( imo 3rd and very long should be even lower and with higher turnover rate). I think what really is not reasonable , is the extremely high turnover rate on medium passes in short situation Very interesting and excellent data as usual Holly, thanks 
Would you happen to know what the numbers look like on second down? And do you have the interception rate for the 3rd down distances you provided please? Thanks! |
|
| Quote Reply Edit | |
|
andrew2scott2
|
posted: 2017-01-03 17:04:53 (ID: 100095030) Report Abuse |
|
alot of this happen as QB try to throws for or near the first down.
And the defense does not get the bonus it should it long down and distance.Even when you play the right formation. But the game is ever changing |
|
| Quote Reply Edit | |
|
hollyhh2000
|
posted: 2017-01-03 17:51:32 (ID: 100095042) Report Abuse |
|
Meitheisman wrote:
last Elite season: Just passing (12130 passes) 3rd and 1: 66.4% Conversion Rate / 1.9% int 3rd and 2-3 65.5% Conversion Rate / 3.0% int 3rd and 4-6 48.3 % Conversion Rate / 2.3% int 3rd and 7-10 24.3% Conversion Rate / 2.2% int 3rd and 11-20 25.8% Conversion Rate / 2.2% int 3rd and 15-20 14.2% Conversion Rate / 4.0% int 2nd and 1: 66.8% Conversion Rate / 2.9% int 2nd and 2-3 67.7% Conversion Rate / 2.1% int 2nd and 4-6 48.5 % Conversion Rate / 2.2% int 2nd and 7-10 27.7% Conversion Rate / 2.1% int 2nd and 11-20 26.0% Conversion Rate / 2.5% int 2nd and 15-20 15.7% Conversion Rate / 3.1% int Very interesting and excellent data as usual Holly, thanks
Would you happen to know what the numbers look like on second down? And do you have the interception rate for the 3rd down distances you provided please? Thanks! I updated the numbers. The numbers include screen passes. I would need to exclude them to do it properly but I think the trend should be valid. Interesting would be to see how medium passing would be in other situations. Unfortunately, on an incompletion there is no way to get the amount of yards which the ball traveled from the play by play. However, I recently scouted one opponent who would throw medium from 2nd and one in a specific formation: unfortunately I realized just 19 passes (assuming he did not change his playbook during that time 2nd and 1 19 passes 3 completions (13/23/28 yards) (23 and 28 include broken tackle) 4 interceptions (15/15/21/25 yards) 12 incompletions very limited numbers but they absolutely match my own experience when I tried to go for medium on 2nd and short (even when I knew my opponent will run 5-3-3 |
|
| Quote Reply Edit | |
|
Meitheisman
|
posted: 2017-01-03 17:56:31 (ID: 100095046) Report Abuse |
|
You're a machine
 
Thanks for the numbers, at first glance I'd expect the INT rate to increase slower against longer passes, it appears to jump up from 2% to 4% once you get to 15 yards. Very interesting, thanks again Holly! |
|
| Quote Reply Edit | |
|
thomastem
|
posted: 2017-01-03 23:01:29 (ID: 100095086) Edits found: 1 Report Abuse |
|
To avoid the auto 1st down after a sack stop blitzing and make sure DEs have under 40 speed. It's not like reality but I find more effective against the engine's auto first after a sack. You can blitz on 3rd down if the team doesn't go for it typically on 4th and long.
The math guys picked this up quickly. Last edited on 2017-01-03 23:02:38 by thomastem |
|
| Quote Reply Edit | |
|
wiesengrund
|
posted: 2017-01-04 13:46:11 (ID: 100095123) Report Abuse |
|
hollyhh2000 wrote:
3rd and 7-10 24.3% Conversion Rate / 2.2% int 3rd and 11-20 25.8% Conversion Rate / 2.2% int 2nd and 7-10 27.7% Conversion Rate / 2.1% int 2nd and 11-20 26.0% Conversion Rate / 2.5% int Those drop-offs seem way to small. There should be a) a big difference between 2nd and 3rd down. On 2nd down, you have to defend the whole field, on 3rd down, defenses will key in in the conversion line 99% of the time, which makes it harder to convert 3rd and 15 vs 2nd and 15 for example. and b) The dropoff between 7-0 and 11-20 range is to small for both downs. If we take a look at the general conversion rates we can see how the curve for 3rd down for instance is right above 40% for 3rd and 7 and the steadily drops to about 35 % for 3rd and 10 (a far cry from the 24% we get in RZA). After that it drops to around 15% for 3rd and 19. If we wanna "bucket" the two grops according to the intervals we have at RZA, the difference should be stark: 3rd and 7-10 should average around 37%, and the 3rd and 11-20 group should average around 22%. |
|
| Quote Reply Edit | |
| reply Mark this thread unread | |
| Navigation: |< 2 3 4 > >| | |
| Main / Discussions / Unlikely big plays after sacks | |
