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| Main / Discussions / ELO - slow to adjust? Search Forum | |
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| Poster | Message |
| posted: 2017-05-17 14:51:55 (ID: 100104491) Report Abuse | |
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If ELO factors in only the last 5 seasons than it would be a credible, fair and reasonable accurate representation of a teams strength.
10 seasons is too much for reasonable accuracy. Especially with recent changes in TM and salaries - etc.. |
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| posted: 2017-05-17 14:54:52 (ID: 100104492) Report Abuse | |
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Just to make it clear: the shrink by X % would happen at each single seasonrollover...
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jggreen
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posted: 2017-05-17 15:09:49 (ID: 100104496) Report Abuse |
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JonnyP wrote:
Yes, though I suggest: 100% for current and previous season *0.9 for each season before eg, it would currently be: 100% for S24 and S25 results 90% for S23 81% for S22 and so on... Brilliant. |
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oakbark
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posted: 2017-05-17 18:23:35 (ID: 100104520) Report Abuse |
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Cheesehead wrote:
Solana_Steve wrote:
One thing is clear…there is not enough empathy for the Blitz on this thread…. Steve SD Blitz Might as well rename your team to the New England Patriots and username to Belichick  Can we have an option to change the inflation of the balls in playoff games for The Blitz too please |
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Rock777
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posted: 2017-05-17 21:34:03 (ID: 100104526) Report Abuse |
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pete wrote:
Just to make it clear: the shrink by X % would happen at each single seasonrollover... But if that is applied across the board, it doesn't really change anything right? I think the K-factor needs to be adjusted if we wanted to make ELO more reactive to recent performance. |
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| posted: 2017-05-17 21:41:03 (ID: 100104527) Report Abuse | |
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Rock777 wrote:
pete wrote:
Just to make it clear: the shrink by X % would happen at each single seasonrollover... But if that is applied across the board, it doesn't really change anything right? It would change things. It would narrow the ELO-range. If we keep the tresholds as they are today, less teams would face the big morale hit... |
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thomastem
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posted: 2017-05-17 22:05:26 (ID: 100104528) Report Abuse |
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Either it helps Steve win the triple crown each year or it doesn't.
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Rock777
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posted: 2017-05-17 23:24:26 (ID: 100104534) Edits found: 1 Report Abuse |
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pete wrote:
Rock777 wrote:
pete wrote:
Just to make it clear: the shrink by X % would happen at each single seasonrollover... But if that is applied across the board, it doesn't really change anything right? It would change things. It would narrow the ELO-range. If we keep the tresholds as they are today, less teams would face the big morale hit... Yeah, I can see that narrowing the range would have an effect. Just wondering if it is enough. Teams at the top would all be dropping a similar amount, so relative to each other there isn't a huge difference. Since ELO is calculated based on the ELO of your opponent, I wonder how much it would really change expectations of team strength (by ELO). A larger K-factor would result in a more reactive ELO score, which I *think* would enable the ELO self correcting to happen a little quicker. Doesn't have to be a huge boost. Probably just pushing the k-factor up a few points. Personally I don't think there is anything wrong with the big moral hits for teams expected to win. Just the win expectation (ELO ranking) which could use some fine tuning. Last edited on 2017-05-17 23:28:08 by Rock777 |
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Rock777
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posted: 2017-05-17 23:26:26 (ID: 100104535) Report Abuse |
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thomastem wrote:
Either it helps Steve win the triple crown each year or it doesn't. Any change is always going to be either a benefit or a detriment to every team in the short run. I'm less concerned with any one individual player, and more concerned with making the ranking system work better overall. |
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| posted: 2017-05-18 09:29:35 (ID: 100104550) Report Abuse | |
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Rock777 wrote:
Personally I don't think there is anything wrong with the big moral hits for teams expected to win. This is my point of view, without any added "but"... |
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