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| Main / Discussions / Game Long Performance Factors Search Forum | |
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pderekdactyl
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posted: 2020-07-10 17:36:05 (ID: 100150579) Report Abuse |
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I've definitely felt like some games my team is cursed and can't do anything right and some days my team has a golden horseshoe wrapped in four leaf clovers in every pocket. My last Supercup game was one of the former.
My understanding is that each play has some random factors that go into the outcome, I believe I read somewhere that coaches have game long factors that go into the engine as well. Do players have game long factors? Is it player specific, skill specific, position specific, or maybe the whole team? I also gave up two long punt returns and didn't get the benefit of many drops, which makes me think that maybe it's more team wide than I previously thought. The stat that really caught my eye and was the genesis of this post is an 88% completion rate in my last game. That's an epic day. My opponent QB was a 19 year old draftee with standard VIS, PAS, etc for such a draftee. He currently lacks what is generally considered ideal SPD/STR/INT that I would expect to fetch 50M+ in the transfer market. That's fine, he's a developing youngster and is coming off of a great day and a victory over my team. I did get 9 sacks, so maybe it's just an anomaly; I don't think it would have caught my eye if some of those sacks were incomplete passes instead. Sad Day Malones Does anyone have any thoughts on how big the spectrum is for whatever is like "game day form" in the RZA world ... what is the equivalent range from Nathan Peterman vs the Ravens to Eli vs the Patriots in the RZA world? Did I just happen to run into a career day where my opponent QB was plugged into the Matrix and was seeing my DBs in green binary slow motion? I really hope this post is about the subject and not why my team lost, I am not concerned about the score of the game and really hope this doesn't come off as sour grapes. Any post after a loss looks that way, but I really don't intend it as such; I really am just trying to understand the game more. I had a game this season where my QB had an 86% completion day, so I've definitely been on the other side of this. I thought about posting about this after that game but a post after a win sounds like gloating; I'd rather err on the side of being seen as a complainer if it has to be one or the other. My team lost and I'm ok with that. I underestimated my opponent and used sub optimal depth chart to get some experience for younger players, a super generic/bad defensive playbook, and had some bad fourth down calls. I blew it and not the game engine. The loss is entirely on me and credit to my opponent. This post is not about "my team lost, something went wrong". I'm fine with the loss. I've won games before that I "shouldn't" have and will enjoy all good and bad surprises in the future. |
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| posted: 2020-07-10 18:23:11 (ID: 100150580) Report Abuse | |
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there is a daily form per player, and a small form per player and play, just to kick off the discussion.
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pderekdactyl
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posted: 2020-07-10 18:55:27 (ID: 100150581) Report Abuse |
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Thanks Pete. It's probably too much to ask, but any chance you could let me know where on the spectrum this 88% completion day landed? Was it right down the middle, a 1 in 50 day, etc? I assume you can't because then you open it up to everyone requesting such things, but I just want to ask. I don't think that would give too much away on the exact distribution used. Or better yet and not just relevant to my team, any chance you could let us know which QB had the best day form this season and what game it was?
Now I'm just being even greedier, but .... Do all players and plays use the same probability distributions? I would guess "yes and no". "Yes" they use the same general formula, but "no" they don't use the same parameter values. Does each player have some hidden consistency value like coaches have, only the players consistency is not visible? I don't have a guess for this. Does experience matter in any way for this day form? I would guess that if it does matter a more experienced player would have more favorable odds of a good day, or a tighter range of odds. |
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| posted: 2020-07-10 19:09:34 (ID: 100150582) Report Abuse | |
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if you check some gamestts you will see those 88 percent are no regular thing, I am sure
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LuLuBa
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posted: 2020-07-11 11:00:12 (ID: 100150585) Report Abuse |
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pete wrote:
there is a daily form per player, and a small form per player and play, just to kick off the discussion. Thanks Pete, I always suspected there is also some team form on a gameday. But this impression may be coming from the fact that just enough key players had bad form or their opponents good form. I also suspected some kind of a season form factor, looks like this depends also only on a dice roll how often a player got good or bad dayform. Should this balance out over a season or is the number of games not high enough? |
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Cheesehead
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posted: 2020-07-15 11:37:58 (ID: 100150673) Report Abuse |
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Coaches consistency could be a major factor. Your D coaches are not that consistent which could lead to a worst case scenario of all three parts performing sub-par.
The problem with American Football and RZA in general is that there are so many inputs into a play calculation it's almost impossible to narrow it down to a factor, even if all variables were known. I think it's just that given the number of plays and games there are bound to be anomalies as there are in real life (crap teams beating good teams). The truth is in RZA is that Pete will never allow us to know too much so we can make educated guesses and I like it that way as it keeps the mystery alive and encourages experimentation. Having said that, it would be great indeed if there was an indication, like a score from 1-10 from your coach for that position group, that showed how much the player was under- or overperforming (ie form). |
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PJRAVENS
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posted: 2020-07-15 11:42:38 (ID: 100150676) Report Abuse |
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I am not able to decript "small form per player and play"
Anyone could write a synonym of "small form" please? |
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Cheesehead
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posted: 2020-07-15 11:46:43 (ID: 100150677) Report Abuse |
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Pete means to say that there is a small % per play that is impacted by how good or how bad the player is playing which affects the outcome of that play.
Classic example is your elite OT/L missing a block on a play that leads to a sack. He just had a bad play but over the game he still plays elite. Just that play he perhaps misjudged a movement of the OLB. This is captured in RZA by what Pete calls 'small form'. |
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PJRAVENS
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posted: 2020-07-15 11:55:03 (ID: 100150680) Report Abuse |
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Thanks a lot, you turned on the light!
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| posted: 2020-07-15 17:06:22 (ID: 100150691) Report Abuse | |
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Good to have such a Pete-translator
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