Beckos 2.0 S49 projections

While putting the public spreadsheet together I noticed I used the wrong ratings to do the seeds for my predictions - the W/L projections are right but I didn't notice the global seeds were sorted by ratings at the beginning of S48, not the end.
I could go back and edit them but instead I'll just say... take them with a grain of salt.


Anyway, here's what I came up with putting the entire history of RZA into my Elo program.


The Names tab has historical ratings (from the end of the season) and league / SC win predictions for S49.
Blue teams are projected division winners, orange teams are projected wildcards.
The color scale is based on percentile for each season, the different shades are the top 70% - 80% - 90% of teams (not all that useful anymore with only 250 teams or so)

The Games tab has win% and expected PD for all scheduled official games (all regular season league and SC and first round of CoC)

The Regions & Divisions tab has the human average for each Division 1 league and each SC division, colored by quartile (darker generally means more difficult). Some other metrics as well regarding SC divisions.

The Elo conversion tab shows the relationship between team A & B Elo difference, predicted win% and predicted PD for a given match.
Roughly, for every 100 points of Elo difference, a team's expected chance of winning changes by a factor of 11 (pretty close to a factor of 10):
A 100 Elo favorite has a 10/11 chance of winning, a 200 Elo favorite has a 120/121 chance of winning, and so on.

The Analyses tab shows some historical data regarding league parity over time (darker generally means greater parity - very roughly).
The maximum and minimum global ratings are shown based on the league census at the end of each season, as well as the average of the top 32 teams, the rating of the 32nd best team and the rating of the 90th percentile cutoff team (183rd best team).
The Dominance scores are each season's maximum rating minus the relevant metric.
Finally the StDev/range metric is the standard deviation of each season's ratings scaled to the global difference in min/max (min represents a bot team's rating, human ratings are much much higher).

It's a cool chart; some of it's a little deep in the weeds, but fun to look at.
Will it be updated on a regular basis as teams' rating change?

I enjoy this game because of my love of football and for stats based games. The kind of stats and projections you're compiling with Beckos 2.0 is feeding my greed for numbers. It simply heightens my enjoyment. Thanks for contributing so much!

We ought to present trophies once a season for who we vote as the "Contributor of the Year." There are a few GMs that belong on that list. You're at the top of it far as I'm concerned, bobloblaw! The very top!

Thanks Maynard, this has been a fun side project for me for a while and I'm glad to put it out into the world.

I will try to keep the spreadsheet updated week to week, probably won't have time to do many write-ups during the season but I'll definitely put something out at the start of the playoffs.

I'm looking forward to it almost as much as I'm looking forward to cooking up some Mongolian Prairie Weasel Stew after our game tomorrow!! Muahahaha

Woooo,

Back to back games listed with a .28% and something like a .14% chance to win, and won both games by ~ a touchdown =P.

I'll take some steals against those teams anyday, lol.

With CoC kicking off this week I figured we're due for another write-up on the Beckos predictions!

Here's the regional report on Beckos' favorites to make the playoff, along with global Elo rankings and projected record:

Admirals

1. AC North: #52 London Silverbacks 14-2
2. AC South: #59 Glastonbury Grail Knights 12-4
3. AC East: #120 2nd Chronicles 7:14 11-5
4. AC West: #69 Melittlemenon thepitchhitchin 10-6
5. Wildcard: #78 Nanaimo Bluebacks 11-5
6. Wildcard: #98 Alprausch Alpakas 9-7

1. NC South: #31 Amma's Angels 16-0
2. NC East: #45 vamosahi 15-1
3. NC North: #71 VenoM 14-2
4. NC West: #35 Free Agent Mascots 14-2
5. Wildcard: #70 SP Nightstorms 13-3
6. Wildcard: #82 Tovari 9-7

One of Amma's Angels and Free Agent Mascots are likely to take the NC title - seeding might pit these teams against each other before the Conference Championship but whoever comes out on top will be strong favorites for the Admirals title.
Things are much less certain in the AC, with ten 7-win teams left in the final 3 weeks the RZA engine is showing no teams clinched yet. Whoever makes it out of this crowded AC field will be a double digit underdog in the Admirals title game.

Claymore

1. AC South: #26 Diorite Lions 16-0
2. AC North: #36 Saker Falcons 14-2
3. AC East: #141 Long Island Islanders 14-2
4. AC West: #66 Olivos Borrachos 13-3
5. Wildcard: #100 Loch Ness Monsters 11-5
6. Wildcard: #129 Ibiza Flamingoes 9-7

1. NC North: #13 Peoples Republic of Yorkshire 16-0
2. NC South: #40 Chuuou Hololivers 15-1
3. NC East: #81 Suchdol Minors 14-2
4. NC West: #80 Rockford Titans 12-4
5. Wildcard: #118 Helsinki Gangsters 12-4
6. Wildcard: #160 Edmond Fighting Bulldogz 12-4

Diorite and Yorkies will likely cruise to 18-0 for a chance to put it all on the line. Saker Falcons are Beckos' most likely candidate to play spoiler but the Lions would be about a single-score favorite in that matchup.

Dragons

1. AC East: #50 Alert Polar Bears 13-3
2. AC West: #72 Rio Atoms 12-4
3. AC South: #104 Viper 12-4
4. AC North: #49 SkiD MarKs 12-4
5. Wildcard: #53 Paladins 12-4
6. Wildcard: #62 Quack Attack 11-5

1. NC South: #112 Alaskan Fur Traders 15-1
2. NC North: #55 The Pinellas Pikes 12-4
3. NC West: #67 Werewolves 12-4
4. NC East: #83 Nottingham Outlaws 11-5
5. Wildcard: #73 Gardians 10-6
6. Wildcard: #76 Oldtown Rooks 10-6

Dragons AC was a battleground as predicted, but Beckos thinks the Alert Polar Bears will win their last 3 to pull ahead of this very crowded field.
The Piniellas Pikes still enjoy a healthy Elo advantage over Alaskan Fur Traders so they should be able to topple the #1 NC seed - if they can make it that far.
In any case we should end up with a great Bowl matchup here in Dragons.

Fire

1. AC South: #156 THE Vikings 13-3
2. AC North: #133 Aberthaw Dolphins 12-4
3. AC West: #157 Rostov Rednecks 11-5
4. AC East: #145 negbone 10-6
5. Wildcard: #185 Stuttgart Stormtroopers 11-5
6. Wildcard: #134 Hainaut Gamecocks 10-6

1. NC West: #86 Fargo Knights 16-0
2. NC East: #137 frenchkiss 14-2
3. NC South: #108 GLADIATORI ROMA 14-2
4. NC North: #85 Pitcairn Bounty Mutineers 13-3
5. Wildcard: #149 Niceville Norsemen 13-3
6. Wildcard: #113 Bonaval Acorns 12-4

Fargo Knights will have a real challenge in the Mutineers, but it will be smooth sailing from there on out. NC are big favorites for this title match.
Beckos' early AC favorites Aberthaw and Hainaut remain in the race, but whoever secures home field advantage will be the front runner for the AC title.

Galaxy

1. AC West: #54 Air Force Falcons 16-0
2. AC East: #92 Philadelphia Eagles 15-1
3. AC North: #48 Mongolian Prairie Weasels 2 14-2
4. AC South: #146 Meda Bruins 9-7
5. Wildcard: #96 16_horsepower 13-3
6. Wildcard: #195 Cardiff Colliers 10-6

1. NC East: #18 Dumbarajko Elephants 16-0
2. NC West: #23 TOOL 16-0
3. NC North: #94 Fort Lauderdale Rainmakers 15-1
4. NC South: #43 Bretzfeld Bandits 14-2
5. Wildcard: #122 Deimon Devil Bats 12-4
6. Wildcard: #197 Big Ben's 11-5

Dumbarajko have been running a skeleton crew all season but you couldn't tell from the numbers: 16-0 and beyond still seems a very real possibility.
They remain the league's PD leaders after week 14 and it looks like Maynard is the NC's best hope to put a stop to their rampage.
AC looks to be outclassed this season, with the undefeated Air Force Falcons likely dropping their first in the title game. MPW are Beckos' favorite for the AC but have had trouble with the Falcons in the past, and will be fighting against home field advantage as well.

Monarchs

1. AC South: #37 Leverkusen Leopards 16-0
2. AC West: #29 Black Dragons 16-0
3. AC East: #63 Torchwood Aliens 14-2
4. AC North: #68 MK Saints 13-3
5. Wildcard: #65 Roll Badge 2.0 11-5
6. Wildcard: BOT Arizona Hummingbirds 11-5

1. NC South: #39 Trois-Rivieres Oilers 15-1
2. NC East: #58 Burnaby Bruisers 13-3
3. NC West: #125 Osler Rotties 12-4
4. NC North: #130 birney's weekenders 10-6
5. Wildcard: #75 Paxtang Black Panthers 13-3
6. Wildcard: #116 KAFakofers 11-5

If going BOT means the Hummingbirds drop their next 3, Toronto Thunder are next on the shortlist for the wildcard spot. AZ are playing bots 2 out of the 3 remaining games however, so we'll likely have a bot sneak into the playoffs.
Leverkusen and Black Dragons will continue to dominate, with the latter a single-score favorite. Trois-Rivieres Oilers are heavy favorites for the NC and slight underdogs in the final.

Sea Devils

1. AC North: #34 Sunrise City Prairie Dogs 16-0
2. AC West: #21 Växjö Vikings AFC 16-0
3. AC South: #172 Glasgow Tigers 14-2
4. AC East: #89 Devon Warriors 12-4
5. Wildcard: #110 Schrodingers Cats 13-3
6. Wildcard: #131 Konjarnik HighTowers 13-3

1. NC South: #44 Social Distance Runners 15-1
2. NC West: #147 Vancouver Corsairs 13-3
3. NC North: #151 SH Cougars 12-4
4. NC East: #204 Dnipros Dendroids 9-7
5. Wildcard: #95 The Alpin Ducks 13-3
6. Wildcard: #166 San Diego Lions 10-6

A tight AC battle here as well, with Beckos slightly less bullish on Växjö since season start, putting them only a touchdown ahead of Sunrise City.
AC still likely to take this title home though.

Thunder

1. AC West: #103 Barossa Bulldogs 15-1
2. AC East: #41 Kalapana Wild Thangs 14-2
3. AC South: #77 Xu Da 13-3
4. AC North: #155 Hell A Rams 13-3
5. Wildcard: #148 Metropolis Berlin Mavericks 11-5
6. Wildcard: #93 The Blue and White 11-5

1. NC East: #56 Vienna Falcons 2 16-0
2. NC South: #74 Fredericksburg Comanches 15-1
3. NC North: #121 RC Frogs 13-3
4. NC West: #107 Waukesha Wolverines 13-3
5. Wildcard: #90 Inbhir Narann 14-2
6. Wildcard: #176 Guardians 13-3

Kalapana and Vienna are healthy Elo favorites in their conferences and will likely meet in the finals for the first time this season. Barossa will have home field advantage this post season but a handy defeat by Kalapana a few weeks ago doesn't bode well for their chances to an Elite Season 50.

Elite

1. AC South: #3 Sydney Sea Eagles 12-4
2. AC North: #8 TigerCats 12-4
3. AC East: #5 Willemstad Bridges 11-5
4. AC West: #11 BobBoy Magpies 11-5
5. Wildcard: #10 Highland Wildcats 11-5
6. Wildcard: #16 Norfolk Heroes 9-7

1. NC North: #4 Space Kraken 14-2
2. NC South: #1 San Diego Blitz 14-2
3. NC East: #6 KMN Mandalorians 13-3
4. NC West: #9 Chelt Nam Bobbers 9-7
5. Wildcard: #2 CHEESE MODE Malones 11-5
6. Wildcard: #12 Department for Love and Peace 11-5

With KMN Mandalorians handing Space Kraken their first loss last week, the fight for the NC home field just got a whole lot more interesting.
Hemet Hooligans get a chance to play spoiler, with their final 3 games against teams ranked #4, #6 and #2 (gulp).
Looks like Rufio has a slightly easier schedule than Steve going into the home stretch but it's far from a done deal.

In the AC, Sydney have a big PD lead and an easier schedule than likely 2-seed TigerCats. Claw prevailed over talon in week 7 in a modest win for the Northern hemisphere but Sydney have since climbed the Elo ladder and are a comfortable double-digit favorite over any AC competition.
Only 5 Elo points (about a field goal) separate Sydney and San Diego... But there's still a long way to go for both conference favorites.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SUPERCUP
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The top 128 teams by projected win total are now highlighted on the spreadsheet - this doesn't take into account PD of past games so some of the tiebreakers will be off.

Beckos predicts:

16 undefeated SC teams
59 14+ win SC teams
102 13+ win SC teams
136 12+ win SC teams

- - - - - - - - --------
CHAMP OF CHAMPS
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#201 Orono Ancient Snappers (-60) vs BOT
BOT vs #24 Lincoln Towncars (-60)
#205 Sakeo SnakeBird vs #47 Ghost of Bautzen (-60)
#51 Sfniner08 vs #38 Bradford Bulls (-10)
#42 Hemet Hooligans vs CHEESE MODE Malones (-35)
#5 Willemstad Bridges (-60) vs BOT
BOT vs #10 Highland Wildcats (-60)
#22 Maykop Dynamos (-3) vs #27 Hell Hounds
BOT vs #7 Zombaes (-60)
BOT vs #33 Raspberry Bush (-60)
#46 Deflators (-60) vs BOT
BOT vs #25 Mülheim Seahawks (-60)
#79 Novosibirsk Eagles (-60) vs BOT
#17 Raven Loonies vs #11 BobBoy Magpies (-4)
#202 Jaxinburgh SteelCats vs #20 Bracciano Lakers (-60)

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I will keep updating the ratings and win totals week to week, unfortunately copying over the game results is a little too time consuming for me right now.
I will try to do at least one more write-up before the playoffs, and then weekly from there on out.

There is a bug in there, the Lovers appeared LOL

Nice work, mate.

bobloblaw of the Mongolian Prairie Weasels 2 has not logged since the 13th of December...

Is this the end of beckos 2.0 ?

Apparently yes. Strange for someone to put in tha much work then disappear into the wilderness