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| Main / Discussions / Experimental Malones Search Forum | |
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| posted: 2022-12-08 17:59:14 (ID: 100170800) Report Abuse | |
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pderekdactyl wrote:
Offseason/Preseason theories to work on because they matter for overall team construction Thoughts: I'm going to say that TEs drop more ooc, where did you get this idea? I just looked at my stats and my TEs have a better catch:drop ratio than my WRs even though my WRs have much better stats. Also, they score significantly more TDs per pass. |
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pderekdactyl
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posted: 2022-12-08 18:17:43 (ID: 100170801) Report Abuse |
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Olband wrote:
pderekdactyl wrote:
Offseason/Preseason theories to work on because they matter for overall team construction Thoughts: I'm going to say that TEs drop more ooc, where did you get this idea? I just looked at my stats and my TEs have a better catch:drop ratio than my WRs even though my WRs have much better stats. Also, they score significantly more TDs per pass. TDs per pass is almost certainly just a QB decision/playbook design thing, right? I wouldn't put much stock in that ratio. TE drops: looking at my stats over the long term as well as other Elite bowl caliber players and big drop games in playoffs. Kraken this season had similar experience as yours, but when I've looked at past drops by top teams it's a trend that I thought I've noticed. I'll download a whole lot of Elite games for the past couple of seasons later and get full stats this weekend or something. It's a theory I've had bubbling for sometime. Maybe when I first looked at it I was only looking at completion percentage. I don't know exactly, but I'll follow up later on this. Look at the Bridges league games this season, their top 4 WRs had 97 drops and 466 catches (17% drop), and their TEs had 49 drops and 81 catches (38% drop). Blitz had WRs @ 20% drop and TEs at 25% drop. Malones WRs and TEs were pretty close, Sydney was close. It's not hard and fast, there's variation. Maybe it's formations based, maybe it's something your team does differently or different roster construction. |
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pderekdactyl
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posted: 2022-12-08 18:21:55 (ID: 100170802) Report Abuse |
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And I have absolutely no idea how you managed to get Ivan Coker to have only 7 drops and 51 catches. I scouted him. That's an outlier of a stat line.
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| posted: 2022-12-08 18:48:40 (ID: 100170805) Edits found: 1 Report Abuse | |
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yeah, maybe it's just my season had odd-luck stats, cause as I said, and like you pointed out, my TEs are all young, undeveloped, but had lower drop rates than my mature, 'better' WRs.
So maybe there's something about calling an inner route that makes it easier to catch, though that doesn't make much sense? Or maybe formation issue? Since I went with a run first plan most of the year, so it caught defenses? Or as you said, an outlier, too small a sample size to take seriously. 
To answer my own question, I just looked at my previous two years when I did have a more experienced TE, and he did have higher drop rates than my WRs, both in Fire and and Elite, so I'm going to mark this odd season up to random events (though I'm a little curious if there is an effect from PB and formations or not) Last edited on 2022-12-08 19:06:15 by Olband |
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| posted: 2022-12-09 14:43:43 (ID: 100170812) Report Abuse | |
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Small sample size, but I did a season where I threw to the flanks only to avoid the TEs and it resulted in more INTs
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| posted: 2022-12-09 15:20:11 (ID: 100170813) Report Abuse | |
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When you compare outside to inside, you have to consider, screens just go to the outside. less yards per catch, but higher completion % and less drops at screens
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pderekdactyl
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posted: 2022-12-09 17:32:36 (ID: 100170815) Report Abuse |
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pderekdactyl wrote:
1) Do OG and OC skills actually matter if I only rush to the outside and pass? .. This is what I'm currently running scrimmages on. I have backups that I would never have played this season at OG and an OOP CB at OC with 16 blocking. We'll see if this OL squad tanks the offense. My test squad will always be my home squad. Away will be my normal Malones. I used a couple of different offensive playbooks but they were always the same for both teams within a single game. The only difference was depth chart. I kind of conflated a few things and changed more than just the OL in my DC not really thinking. But, I realized that after a couple of games and cleaned it up to isolate truly testing just interior OL. Results: Game 1: Home 31:17 The home team with their objectively worse OL dominated. QB completed 90% and averaged 6.6 per rush. Clearly a great day for the QB that was going to result in a victory for the home team no matter what. I wish I had gotten this QB day in the playoffs instead of against me in the CoC. Games 2 through 9: Away team won all 8 games with a combined 125:240 score. Home team offense with their objectively worse OL struggled big time on offense. It clearly wasn't working. There were a couple of close games, but the bad OL team was only kept in it by good defensive days. So good lesson here, don't just do one scrimmage and think it's an answer. I'm not sure 9 games is enough either, but that combined score in games 2-8 were outlandish enough that I altered what I was doing. (and DC locks in an hour before game so game 9 was just the icing on the cake). I decided to not use an OOP CB at OC. He was replaced by a freshly promoted from the YA guy (listed at QB, but within free position switch so shouldn't get OOP penalty). New OC had 41 TW and 49 INT, but all skills under 30, and most much worse including 17.8 POS and 24 BLO. Games 10:26. Home team won 8, Away team won 9. Combined score of 477:486. These matchups were much closer. 17 games isn't the largest sample. And games 2-9 showed that something does matter with the interior line even on outside runs and passes. But, considering the 3 interior OL are straight trash for an elite bowl team, the fact that these 17 games were close is remarkable. There's a lot more details than just scores, but that's really hard to display fully without tables and also require more time than what I currently spent to rigorously analyze everything. My summary based on the overall results: OOP hurts, but interior OL don't really matter for skills if you only run outside and only pass. There might be a little bit to the groups combined TW and INT, but I'm not sold that their actual skills particularly matter on these outside runs and passes. So if I want to run the leanest payroll for the best results I'd get some good TW and INT guys for OGs and OC and then just focus on OTs for the rest of the OL. |
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pderekdactyl
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posted: 2022-12-10 02:13:11 (ID: 100170818) Report Abuse |
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HH_KMN wrote:
When you compare outside to inside, you have to consider, screens just go to the outside. less yards per catch, but higher completion % and less drops at screens Couple of thoughts that I have about this: I think "less yards per catch" depends on the distance to go. With 7-10 and 11-20 that's certainly true. With 1, 2-3, and 4-6 yards to go I don't believe that's materially true. And yards per play I believe is higher on screens in 1-6 yards to go than not screens. And, at least to me, even more important than yards per play is the % of times that you get a first down on these 1-6 yards to go situations. And screen passes dominate that in 1-6 ... but fail miserably on 7-21+. I don't think it says "screen", "outer", or "inner" on sacks. That bit makes it a little harder to tell yards per play unless you know the playbook selection. I don't believe that QBs throw screen every time that "both flanks" is selected, and I believe that they also do throw screens even when "All Directions" is selected. I don't have a good idea on those rates other than it's higher when picking flanks compared to all directions in the playbook. I think my next scrimmage batch might be on this to see how often the QB throws screen vs anything besides screen, and also possibly sack rates. One playbook will be all "both flanks" and I'll make a matching playbook that is "all directions". |
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| posted: 2022-12-11 00:19:47 (ID: 100170819) Report Abuse | |
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I'm pretty fresh here but this sound interesting.
If you pass and rush outside mainly then 3 OL don't need to be the man, but anyhow you don' t win over team which have man on those positions and use inside spaces... I guess that you miss some superman for the money spend for 3 OL, which will prove that theory. On whatever position... |
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| posted: 2022-12-11 00:25:23 (ID: 100170820) Report Abuse | |
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Otherwise you will save 100 milion because that gives you 2% advantage and spend them to x position which will give you extra x advantage?
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