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| Main / Discussions / 4th down completion Search Forum | |
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| Poster | Message |
| posted: 2022-12-20 17:00:05 (ID: 100171083) Report Abuse | |
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It sounds like Jack is suggesting that a 50% 4th down conversion rate is unrealistic, and others are saying it is appropriate.
Yes, the long conversion probably shouldn't have a high completion rate*, but other than that, I don't have a problem with it. The only real unrealistic part is going for it every time on 4th down, because long-term it's a recipe for failure, which is why it doesn't happen in the NFL. But every manager has the option to do that, to shoot themselves in the foot. So I don't see a problem here. *I don't know that stats on it, but it seems if you have 3rd and 25, you're more likely to complete it with a regular pass play than if you choose a 25 yard deep pass. I don't see why a QB choosing to pass deep because of down and distance should be more successful, (and less interceptions,) than if the coach chooses a deep pass. I think most players agree the deep and medium pass options are fairly worthless, because: 1) the high interception rate, and 2) a 'deep' pass only allows for a 25 yard gain? No one in the NFL would consider 25 yards a very deep pass. IMO, for the interception rate it grants, it should allow much deeper passes, 30-50 yards; that would seem more like a hail mary play. Otherwise, if a team wants a long pass, they're really better off throwing in a formation that they hope the other team is playing run against and hope the safety misses a tackle. In short, why have the deep pass option at all if all it really does is increase risk without a commensurate chance for gain? |
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| posted: 2022-12-20 18:15:59 (ID: 100171085) Report Abuse | |
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So what to do?
Manipulate 4th down calculation? I mean, the algorithm does calculate on every down the same, right? Why should it do different on 4th down? It's a matter of playbook and the defense adjusting. |
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| posted: 2022-12-20 19:28:37 (ID: 100171089) Report Abuse | |
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pete wrote:
I understood you were playing vs a human controlled team, right? What I am missing? a 75 skill rated team with coaching vs a 50 skill rated team without coaching. Looks like a believable realistic outcome is what may be missing. |
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| posted: 2022-12-20 21:18:29 (ID: 100171091) Report Abuse | |
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maybe the coach of the 75ish team did not good job, maybe the 50ish team had an oustanding day. Who knows ...
Is this a reason to act? I don't believe so. |
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| posted: 2022-12-21 02:41:06 (ID: 100171093) Report Abuse | |
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So player skill really doesn't matter. Not much anyway.
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| posted: 2022-12-21 07:53:43 (ID: 100171096) Report Abuse | |
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punch drunk wrote:
So player skill really doesn't matter. Not much anyway. I say, that this is wrong. The whole game is a matter of possibilities. The skills will serve the stronger team, say 90% the time, maybe 99% of the time. But those 10%, the 1%, it goes in favor of the other team. If you pick just THOSE cases and say 'That's not ok' you ignore the other plays. The guy did lose, big time. Sure those 4th down plays did work, sure that 4th and a mile did work, but most of the time it did not work on 1st, 2nd and 3rd down and also on 4th down. I don't understand the chat, if your statement would be true, we should and would have had several teams with a lot less than 75+ rating in Elite and even winning it. Does not happen. Why? Because 90%+ the possibilities are in favor of the skills, combined with the playbook setup, the coaches setup and so on. |
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BlindLark
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posted: 2022-12-21 08:31:45 (ID: 100171097) Report Abuse |
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punch drunk wrote:
So player skill really doesn't matter. Not much anyway. I think it's worth noting that in the game in question, the "better" team won, 59-21... |
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Captain Jack
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posted: 2022-12-21 09:51:58 (ID: 100171098) Report Abuse |
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I know that the higher rated (my) team won handsomely but that is not my point. We would have expected that anyway even if the other team had punted on 4th down.
I have checked my playbook for every one of those 15 4th down attempts. The defensive playbook matched perfectly against the offensive playbook. Even if I had played against an equal level or for that matter a better team I would not expect them to complete 50% of 4th down passes - especially 4th and 29. So it may be as concluded above by PunchDrunk that player skills don't matter that much and as in another thread elsewhere that playbooks do not matter that much. I am just suggesting that both should be more important. If a coach wants to gamble on every 4th down that is up to him but if our (better) defense and correct defensive playbook only give a 50% chance of stopping them I feel this is too low. |
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BlindLark
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posted: 2022-12-21 10:05:33 (ID: 100171099) Report Abuse |
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If these things didn't matter, you wouldn't have won by such a distinct margin. If you're arguing that 4th down effectiveness is too high, than that means your opponent had a better PB than you by taking advantage of that. By all means, do the same and see how the results work for you. But if that's the case, and player skill didn't account for much... then how do you explain the difference in outcome?
In all seriousness, 50% fourth down effectiveness isn't very shocking at all, and is not out of line with realistic expectations, especially with such an incredibly small sample size. More importantly, however, is that for every opportunity your opponent gained to obtain a new set of downs, they gambled ~40 yards of field position. So 8 times out of 15, they gained a new set of downs. And 7 times of out 15, they surrendered a free ~40 yard play to your offense. I know which of those two I would personally prefer. |
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Maynard
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posted: 2022-12-21 14:51:19 (ID: 100171104) Report Abuse |
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1) I love this game and changes are not warranted based on what's been presented
2) I consider this American Football simulation to exist in another dimension where a team can be filled with superhuman Maynards with an amazing, untold backstory. Using realism as an argument, therefore, doesn't fly. In this reality, 4th downs are successful 50 percent of the time, if I understand this thread correctly. 3) Once a manager understands the rules of the reality being simulated, and acknowledges that all other managers are playing by the exact same rules, he/she has to play by those rules, and manage to win by them, as the true goal is to win. (And if you're not playing to win:  )
4) If a manager plays for 10 seasons, and can't dig their way out of their division like they used to, it is frustrating. It could mean there is something either about player skills, or playbooks, that simply has not been grasped yet. This is why we are all here though. One manager figures something out, and now their next competitor has to figure out what they figured out and how to beat it, or how to employ it themselves. 5) It is not realistic for anyone to suggest x and y are not right, and there needs to be changes to them, then continue to get pounded by x and y on the regular. I'm not saying this is being done deliberately. I'm saying I feel differently when a manager at the top has input regarding major game changes, than when persons struggling a little lower down post comments about skills and playbooks not meaning much. That's my problem, and I am not saying it's right for me to see it this way. But it could prove more effective if you stated some stuff about how nothing matters, then worked your way into a Superbowl, and then said "See, I told you, nothing to it! This game is so basic!" Until then, whenever I see these posts, I personally see frustration regarding the stiff competition as the reason for them, and I feel you. The guys at the top have all the little percentages figured out, and it is FRUSTRATING!! lol. Good luck to you guys.  |
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