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| Main / Discussions / Evaluating Experience for Players Search Forum | |
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jmehnert86
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posted: 2016-11-25 22:54:00 (ID: 100091953) Report Abuse |
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Just want to share a quick analysis I did to find an average trendline for my player's experience, to identify players well below average. This is to help me identify draft/market needs.
Summary of findings. This graph shows average expectations. Starting with 2.5 stars at the age of 21, I expect about half a star of growth every 3 years. Obviously, a better player can and should beat this expectation.  Source: http://i.imgur.com/Fl0NHNj.png Trendline analysis  Source: http://i.imgur.com/T7uRayW.png This shows my offense. With experience multiplied by 2, you can see for example that my two younger QBs are each half a star below expectations. WR and HB groups are slightly below expectations.  Source: http://i.imgur.com/7ojd9NP.png Defense. Doing much better here. A 25yo MLB needs some extra game time.  Source: http://i.imgur.com/Xm5lnWD.png I put a couple players on sale as a result of this process, so they can find younger teams that can give them more game time. Hope this helps somebody. |
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| posted: 2016-11-25 23:37:41 (ID: 100091954) Report Abuse | |
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That's really interesting, thanks for posting this
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thomastem
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posted: 2016-11-25 23:52:40 (ID: 100091955) Report Abuse |
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There are people that buy off the TM that don't even consider exp/age ratio. That is good for the seller, bad for the buyer. Raising awareness should lower what is paid for players behind the curve.
Selling players way behind on experience is something you see those at the top doing very often and the over spending on poor exp players has helped keep them at top. Even though it may not have been your intent I love how you have attacked the problem. if the top teams stop getting top dollar for poor players then like real life their dynasty will come to an end and they will actually have a rebuild period. I solute your attack on the "Good ole boy" club even if it never entered your mind to pull a brick out of the wall of the establishment.  |
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anderton46
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posted: 2016-11-26 00:39:19 (ID: 100091958) Report Abuse |
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How do people even measure how exp affects a players performance? I imagine it is pretty damn hard to do given all the variables.
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| posted: 2016-11-26 00:45:54 (ID: 100091960) Report Abuse | |
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Honestly - without going into any explanations etc
I find Experience just barely more important than I find team work. Team work is rarely a factor in any of my purchases unless the player is YA. So sell those low experience guys! I'll buy some of them if I like their important details! |
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andrew2scott2
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posted: 2016-11-26 00:55:59 (ID: 100091961) Report Abuse |
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form my number i been able to gather. It takes 2900 to 3300 to snaps (non friendly games). To gain half a star of experience.
so just a little math player get x snaps a game will get x snaps with no playoff 31 game a season. 15 super cup game a season +16 league games a season 1 40=1240 2 50=1550 3 60=1860 4 70=2170 now if you can get 3 playoff games 1 40=1360 2 50=1700 3 60=2040 4 70=2380 P.S. draftee player first half star gain does not meet 2900-3300 in most cases Can be as few as 500snaps. Something strange i notice when researching snaps to gains xp. Most likely when player are made they are not create as even number of xp but odd number that we can not see Last edited on 2016-11-26 01:59:50 by andrew2scott2 |
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jmehnert86
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posted: 2016-11-26 01:55:19 (ID: 100091963) Report Abuse |
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Sounds about right. For reference, I played 11 "second team" games this season, so that's 20 games before playoffs for starters.
20 games per season * 50 snaps per game * 3 seasons = 3000 snaps, conservatively for starters. This agrees with the average trend line. It's definitely possible to get close to half a star a season though, if you're maxing. I have a more balanced approach. Last edited on 2016-11-26 02:01:23 by jmehnert86 |
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jmehnert86
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posted: 2016-11-26 01:59:53 (ID: 100091964) Report Abuse |
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punch drunk wrote:
Honestly - without going into any explanations etc I find Experience just barely more important than I find team work. Team work is rarely a factor in any of my purchases unless the player is YA. So sell those low experience guys! I'll buy some of them if I like their important details! I rate teamwork very highly for linemen. For other players, it's very important for their skill training. The only time I'd say it's not important is if you're buying a non-lineman veteran who's fully trained already. |
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thomastem
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posted: 2016-11-26 02:45:07 (ID: 100091969) Report Abuse |
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I highly value experience and think it is one of the more under-rated data points.
Thing is people should be testing similar players with different experience levels so they can confidently make up their own mind rather than listen to others and hope they are correct. |
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jmehnert86
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posted: 2016-11-26 03:06:07 (ID: 100091972) Report Abuse |
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thomastem wrote:
I highly value experience and think it is one of the more under-rated data points. Thing is people should be testing similar players with different experience levels so they can confidently make up their own mind rather than listen to others and hope they are correct. The problem with that is I have players that are near perfect in soft and hard skills, and experience, but they have low tackle percentages because they are first on the depth chart. Meanwhile I have noobs who have high percentages. This makes it hard to measure empirically. One would have to use the scrimmages option in my opinion to eliminate many (but not all) of the variables. One of Pete's strong points in game design is in implementing confounding variables. I will say I think it's important. I wouldn't train a player above 38-40 or so if they didn't have good experience (let's say 4), because I think you're throwing away cash at that point. Last edited on 2016-11-26 03:09:43 by jmehnert86 |
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