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| Main / Suggestions / Adjust FB Blocking success probability for different formations Search Forum | |
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hollyhh2000
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posted: 2016-05-23 09:49:47 (ID: 100077169) Report Abuse |
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As there are very hot discussions in the coaches karma thread, I think it would be good to level out the pros and cons of each formation a little bit more. I think it has been proposed in the past, but I think if we should encouraged to use more formations, the effectivity of different formations have to be better balanced
Imo, the SG formations offer too much benefit over the other formations and that is one of the reasons, why they are used so much. One of the reason is the nearly perfect blitz pickup percentage of FB on Blitzers in the SG, if no DE managed to break through. Other Formations with a FB like I Formation have far worse FB blocking percentages. In Fact I have not found a successful FB Blitz- Pickup in Season 21 from the same team with the same FB who had quite some Pickups in Season 20 
Anyway my suggestion lower the probability of a successful FB Blitz Pickup from SG2 and SG4 (100% just does not seem right) increase the probability of a successful FB Blitz Pickup from any other formations the detailed formulars of course are up to Pete as he does not like to let us know them  .
Imo the skills of the blitzer vs the skills of the FB should play a role and SG should still have a slight benefit for blitz pick-up versus the other Formations (to adjust for that, SG be not so effective in the running game, but I will add another suggestion for that) Imo it would be also a good idea to let the RB try to pick up blitzers with success according to their blocking skills, but because of the added complexity and as I think, this will be a huge work for coding and testing I would like to exclude RB Blocking from this suggestion. Feel free to add your own suggestion for RB blitz pick-up 
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Meitheisman
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posted: 2016-05-23 10:28:57 (ID: 100077174) Report Abuse |
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How do you measure FB blitz-pick-up success?
In the stats FB always show 100% success rate on blocks and I don't think I've ever seen a DE get a sack with a FB on the field. |
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hollyhh2000
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posted: 2016-05-23 11:14:54 (ID: 100077184) Report Abuse |
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Meitheisman wrote:
How do you measure FB blitz-pick-up success? In the stats FB always show 100% success rate on blocks and I don't think I've ever seen a DE get a sack with a FB on the field. Sorry, I forgot, that in RZA the DE is said to be blitzing (for me this is normal pass rush, a blitz can just be done from a LB or DB) The main difference in the FB behavior between the formations is the pickup of a blitzing LB/SF when no DE breaks through. In SG2 and SG4 the FB will always block the blitzing LB/SF while any other formation with a FB almost never blocks the blitzing LB/SF. In fact I have found some examples of blitzing LB/SF being blocked by the FB in the I-Formation in Season 20, while the same team have not been able to do that in Season 21 (even against the same opponent) |
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Meitheisman
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posted: 2016-05-23 11:45:20 (ID: 100077193) Report Abuse |
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hollyhh2000 wrote:
In SG2 and SG4 the FB will always block the blitzing LB/SF while any other formation with a FB almost never blocks the blitzing LB/SF. How much data do you have to support this point? I'm not saying you are right or wrong, I would just like to see data supporting this point before taking it as "truth". |
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hollyhh2000
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posted: 2016-05-23 13:35:56 (ID: 100077218) Report Abuse |
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Meitheisman wrote:
How much data do you have to support this point? I'm not saying you are right or wrong, I would just like to see data supporting this point before taking it as "truth". Merged some Scouting files and the Result is very clear. 31 Elite League Games from this season, no pushovers involved; I used games with teams who I know pass out of the I-Formation. total analyzed lines 6305 thereof passes: 2961 SG4 1261 passes 406 x no DE breakthrough & no blitz / 0 Sacks 427 x no DE breakthrough & blitz 427 FB Blocks / 0 Sacks 193 x DE breakthrough & no blitz / 193 FB Blocks / 1 Sack DE Toni Fingerlos despite being blocked by a FB 235 x DE breakthrough & blitz 235 FB Blocks / 40 Sacks overall 41 Sacks / 1261 passes = 3.25% SG2 585 passes 193 x no DE breakthrough & no blitz / 0 Sacks 171 x no DE breakthrough & blitz 171 FB Blocks / 0 Sacks 121 x DE breakthrough & no blitz / 121 FB Blocks / 0 Sacks 100 x DE breakthrough & blitz 100 FB Blocks / 14 Sacks overall 14 Sacks / 585 passes = 2.39% I-Formation 681 passes 205 x no DE breakthrough & no blitz / 0 Sacks 158 x no DE breakthrough & blitz 0 FB Blocks / 34 Sacks 168 x DE breakthrough & no blitz / 168 FB Blocks / 0 Sacks 150 x DE breakthrough & blitz 150 FB Blocks / 31 Sacks overall 65 Sacks / 681 passes = 9.54% Flexbone & Wishbone & Big I & Goalline combined 272 passes 83 x no DE breakthrough & no blitz / 0 Sacks 71 x no DE breakthrough & blitz 0 FB Blocks / 17 Sacks 80 x DE breakthrough & no blitz / 80 FB Blocks / 0 Sacks 38 x DE breakthrough & blitz 38 FB Blocks / 9 Sacks overall 26 Sacks / 272 passes = 9.56% Proset & SB Big & SB Spread combined 162 passes 49 x no DE breakthrough & no blitz / 0 Sacks 35 x no DE breakthrough & blitz 0 FB Blocks / 9 Sacks 39 x DE breakthrough & no blitz / 0 FB Blocks / 1 Sack 39 x DE breakthrough & blitz 39 FB Blocks / 6 Sacks overall 16 Sacks / 162 passes = 9.88% So still not enough data for something definite but a very strong trend, if you are looking for pass protection you would be stupid not just pass from the Shotgun Formations |
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Meitheisman
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posted: 2016-05-23 13:47:30 (ID: 100077221) Report Abuse |
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Excellent breakdown hollyhh, thanks for posting the data. Now that I've seen this I'm 100% with you on this one. The issue is a lack of balance between formations, not the fact that the SG formations are being used more
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| posted: 2016-05-25 14:36:29 (ID: 100077519) Report Abuse | |
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wow, just found this post.
No wonder my QBs get sacked way more than other players. The I is my main formation. Silly me. |
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Fincyril
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posted: 2016-05-26 14:19:25 (ID: 100077640) Report Abuse |
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Wow. Impressive figures. I agree with your proposition to balance those.
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anderton46
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posted: 2016-05-26 14:31:55 (ID: 100077641) Report Abuse |
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For sake of a counter argument.
Do the formations that yield a high amount of sacks balance out by gaining more yards or % completions than the SG formations? If so you could argue that you can choose the higher risk higher reward option? If they don't, then yes this is something that should be addressed. |
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hollyhh2000
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posted: 2016-05-26 14:54:42 (ID: 100077643) Report Abuse |
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anderton46 wrote:
Do the formations that yield a high amount of sacks balance out by gaining more yards or % completions than the SG formations? 500-1200 plays is a little small quantity to really analyze yards per play as some statistical anomaly on very long TDs would have quite an impact, so use with a grain of salt. Also there are different Defense Formations and if broken down to one defense the number of plays come down co in my analyzed plays: vs all Defense Formation: SG4: 1261 plays: 7076 yards = 5.61 yards per pass I-Formation: 681 plays: 3475 yards = 5.10 yards per pass SG2: 585 plays: 2892 yards = 4.95 yards per pass just vs 3-4-4 SG4: 664 plays: 3694 yards = 5.56 yards per pass (3.6 sack /pass vs 3-4-4) I-Formation: 365 plays: 1819 yards = 4.98 yards per pass (9.3 sack /pass vs 3-4-4) SG2: 367 plays: 1871 yards = 5.10 yards per pass (2.5 sack /pass vs 3-4-4) |
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