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| Main / Suggestions / Adjust FB Blocking success probability for different formations Search Forum | |
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Doc
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posted: 2016-05-29 18:33:21 (ID: 100077910) Report Abuse |
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Meitheisman wrote:
Doc wrote:
Meitheisman wrote:
Doc wrote:
Could it be a simple text issue. We can see in any scrimmages we have a much more detailed breakdown of the plays, for example :- I doubt it because in one case there are 0 sacks in 600 blitzes while in the other there are 50+ sacks in 230 passes. So it appears to impact the outcome of the play, not just the way the play is described. Are there any instances in SG4 where a LB blitzes and no one picks him up and he doesn't get a sack, as per text? Not according to holly's stats, the FB picks up the blitzing LB in 100% of the cases. 427 blocks over 427 attempts and 0 sack allowed. This could be read differently, using my previous example where LB blitzes and no text shows for blocking. Are you assuming the FB is blocking the blitzer? Because no where is any text does it state who the FB is actually blocking. 14:27 2 and goal to go on opp 5, Cameron O'Carroll (OC) snaps the ball to Reece Quinn (QB), Reece Quinn (QB) selected Abidugun Keita (TE/L) as target, Blocking: Babarimisa Soyinka (OG/R) pancaked Kabaila Ba (DT/L), Dillon Maher (OG/L) missed to block Darel Blythe (DT/R), Joseph Fitzpatrick (OT/R) missed to block Herbert Matas (DE/L), Alan O'Connor (OT/L) missed to block Jitu Ironsi (DE/R), DLine has 3 members in shape after blocking Hashim Kalu (MLB) goes for the blitz, Sam Molony (FB/R) blocks, nearly intercepted, the pass goes inner left to the receiver, incomplete, overthrown, the QB was not able to execute the action, no progress (Shotgun 2 WR vs. 4-4-3) more Sam Molony Blocks 3 OL missed their blocks, FB isn't stated who he blocks. Now with a sack 4:53 1 and 10 to go on opp 32, Cameron O'Carroll (OC) snaps the ball to Reece Quinn (QB), Reece Quinn (QB) selected Benjamin Hochulli (WR/R) as target, Blocking: Babarimisa Soyinka (OG/R) blocked Kabaila Ba (DT/L), Dillon Maher (OG/L) blocked Darel Blythe (DT/R), Joseph Fitzpatrick (OT/R) missed to block Herbert Matas (DE/L), Alan O'Connor (OT/L) missed to block Jitu Ironsi (DE/R), DLine has 2 members in shape after blocking Jitu Ironsi (DE/R) breaks through the line, Sam Molony (FB/R) blocks, Yahya Bancilhon (OLB/R) goes for the blitz, Reece Quinn (QB) gets sacked by Yahya Bancilhon (OLB/R), 9 yards for loss (Shotgun 4 WR vs. 4-4-3) more Sam Molony Blocks 2 OL missed their blocks and again the FB is not stated as who he blocks. Under no circumstances can you say that the FB is picking up the blitzing LB any time because it is simply not stated, as shown in successful sacks. Just like my example in Big-I where a LB blitzes with no blocking text, he just blitzes and is unsuccessful in the sack attempt. I'm not being argumentative, I just don't want people reading information which looks good on the surface but may not be factually correct and sways their way of playing the game. Much like when I read someone say that the only way to be successful in RZA is to pass 100% of the time. It triggers the shit outta me. |
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McKay93
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posted: 2016-05-29 18:47:09 (ID: 100077911) Report Abuse |
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Doc wrote:
14:27 2 and goal to go on opp 5, Cameron O'Carroll (OC) snaps the ball to Reece Quinn (QB), Reece Quinn (QB) selected Abidugun Keita (TE/L) as target, Blocking: Babarimisa Soyinka (OG/R) pancaked Kabaila Ba (DT/L), Dillon Maher (OG/L) missed to block Darel Blythe (DT/R), Joseph Fitzpatrick (OT/R) missed to block Herbert Matas (DE/L), Alan O'Connor (OT/L) missed to block Jitu Ironsi (DE/R), DLine has 3 members in shape after blocking Hashim Kalu (MLB) goes for the blitz, Sam Molony (FB/R) blocks, nearly intercepted, the pass goes inner left to the receiver, incomplete, overthrown, the QB was not able to execute the action, no progress (Shotgun 2 WR vs. 4-4-3) more Sam Molony Blocks 3 OL missed their blocks, FB isn't stated who he blocks. Now with a sack 4:53 1 and 10 to go on opp 32, Cameron O'Carroll (OC) snaps the ball to Reece Quinn (QB), Reece Quinn (QB) selected Benjamin Hochulli (WR/R) as target, Blocking: Babarimisa Soyinka (OG/R) blocked Kabaila Ba (DT/L), Dillon Maher (OG/L) blocked Darel Blythe (DT/R), Joseph Fitzpatrick (OT/R) missed to block Herbert Matas (DE/L), Alan O'Connor (OT/L) missed to block Jitu Ironsi (DE/R), DLine has 2 members in shape after blocking Jitu Ironsi (DE/R) breaks through the line, Sam Molony (FB/R) blocks, Yahya Bancilhon (OLB/R) goes for the blitz, Reece Quinn (QB) gets sacked by Yahya Bancilhon (OLB/R), 9 yards for loss (Shotgun 4 WR vs. 4-4-3) more Under no circumstances can you say that the FB is picking up the blitzing LB any time because it is simply not stated, as shown in successful sacks. Just like my example in Big-I where a LB blitzes with no blocking text, he just blitzes and is unsuccessful in the sack attempt. Wait, what? In both examples, the FB is blocking a defender. In the 2nd one, he couldn't pick up the blitz as there is already a DE he has to block. (DE breaking through + blitz is not the situation you were arguing about btw) |
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Doc
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posted: 2016-05-29 18:56:26 (ID: 100077912) Report Abuse |
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McKay93 wrote:
Doc wrote:
14:27 2 and goal to go on opp 5, Cameron O'Carroll (OC) snaps the ball to Reece Quinn (QB), Reece Quinn (QB) selected Abidugun Keita (TE/L) as target, Blocking: Babarimisa Soyinka (OG/R) pancaked Kabaila Ba (DT/L), Dillon Maher (OG/L) missed to block Darel Blythe (DT/R), Joseph Fitzpatrick (OT/R) missed to block Herbert Matas (DE/L), Alan O'Connor (OT/L) missed to block Jitu Ironsi (DE/R), DLine has 3 members in shape after blocking Hashim Kalu (MLB) goes for the blitz, Sam Molony (FB/R) blocks, nearly intercepted, the pass goes inner left to the receiver, incomplete, overthrown, the QB was not able to execute the action, no progress (Shotgun 2 WR vs. 4-4-3) more Sam Molony Blocks 3 OL missed their blocks, FB isn't stated who he blocks. Now with a sack 4:53 1 and 10 to go on opp 32, Cameron O'Carroll (OC) snaps the ball to Reece Quinn (QB), Reece Quinn (QB) selected Benjamin Hochulli (WR/R) as target, Blocking: Babarimisa Soyinka (OG/R) blocked Kabaila Ba (DT/L), Dillon Maher (OG/L) blocked Darel Blythe (DT/R), Joseph Fitzpatrick (OT/R) missed to block Herbert Matas (DE/L), Alan O'Connor (OT/L) missed to block Jitu Ironsi (DE/R), DLine has 2 members in shape after blocking Jitu Ironsi (DE/R) breaks through the line, Sam Molony (FB/R) blocks, Yahya Bancilhon (OLB/R) goes for the blitz, Reece Quinn (QB) gets sacked by Yahya Bancilhon (OLB/R), 9 yards for loss (Shotgun 4 WR vs. 4-4-3) more Under no circumstances can you say that the FB is picking up the blitzing LB any time because it is simply not stated, as shown in successful sacks. Just like my example in Big-I where a LB blitzes with no blocking text, he just blitzes and is unsuccessful in the sack attempt. Wait, what? In both examples, the FB is blocking a defender. In the 2nd one, he couldn't pick up the blitz as there is already a DE he has to block. (DE breaking through + blitz is not the situation you were arguing about btw) I'm linking it to the Big-I text issue if you read above. As for your bolded parts can you see the difference in text here: Dillon Maher (OG/L) blocked Darel Blythe (DT/R) Sam Molony (FB/R) blocks One is specific who he is blocking, the other is not. |
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McKay93
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posted: 2016-05-29 19:03:01 (ID: 100077914) Report Abuse |
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Hashim Kalu is blocked by Sam Molony
Jitu Ironsi is blocked by Sam Molony How is that not specific? |
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Doc
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posted: 2016-05-29 19:04:46 (ID: 100077915) Report Abuse |
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McKay93 wrote:
Hashim Kalu is blocked by Sam Molony Jitu Ironsi is blocked by Sam Molony How is that not specific? Because no where in the game text is it stated. |
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McKay93
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posted: 2016-05-29 19:08:01 (ID: 100077916) Report Abuse |
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It is, in the bolded part.
So this whole misunderstanding is based on the fact that the game text reads "DE is blocked by FB" instead of "FB blocks DE"  |
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Doc
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posted: 2016-05-29 19:18:22 (ID: 100077917) Report Abuse |
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McKay93 wrote:
It is, in the bolded part. So this whole misunderstanding is based on the fact that the game text reads "DE is blocked by FB" instead of "FB blocks DE" Notice how each sub section of the play is broken up by a comma. Babarimisa Soyinka (OG/R) pancaked Kabaila Ba (DT/L), Dillon Maher (OG/L) missed to block Darel Blythe (DT/R), Joseph Fitzpatrick (OT/R) missed to block Herbert Matas (DE/L), Alan O'Connor (OT/L) missed to block Jitu Ironsi (DE/R), DLine has 3 members in shape after blocking Hashim Kalu (MLB) goes for the blitz, Sam Molony (FB/R) blocks, nearly intercepted, the pass goes inner left to the receiver, incomplete, overthrown, the QB was not able to execute the action, no progress (Shotgun 2 WR vs. 4-4-3) more No comma in between - Joseph Fitzpatrick (OT/R) missed to block Herbert Matas (DE/L) And then we have this with a comma breaking the sequence - Hashim Kalu (MLB) goes for the blitz, Sam Molony (FB/R) blocks, nearly intercepted, If the text said Sam Molony (FB) blocked Hashim Kalu (MLB), as it does with the OL I'd agree with you, but it doesn't. Last edited on 2016-05-29 19:18:53 by Doc |
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McKay93
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posted: 2016-05-29 19:32:05 (ID: 100077919) Report Abuse |
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That is only to shorten the text. Instead of repeating the name, it just states the block like this.
It can't be anything else, because it'd either be a) totally useless, since the FB will block in every play if needed. That'd be like stating that WR1 runs his route even though the pass goes to WR2 b) out of position if it were ment as a general "the FB blocks someone". Why would it be between the DE breaking through and the blitz and not before or after the "how many defenders get into the backfield" section. |
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hollyhh2000
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posted: 2016-05-29 19:55:38 (ID: 100077921) Report Abuse |
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I always thought the same way like McKay.
The text, that just appears in scrimmages was imo for the pass rush just to show in detail a) is one DE winning the battle and breaks through b) how many DL stay alive and give the QB less room to use his speed to run away as nearly always: just one man knows exactly: Maybe examples how I analyzed the data might help to understand: Example I-Formation DE breakthrough - no blitz Q1 5:23 3 and 3 to go on opp 44, Sebastian Ziegler (OC) snaps the ball to Matthias Schäfer (QB), Matthias Schäfer (QB) selected Aldo Feuerstein (WR/R) as target, Pesamino Watkins (DE/R) breaks through the line, Chalermchai Thawan (FB/C) blocks, the pass goes outer right to the receiver, incomplete, he was not able to make the catch, no progress (I-formation vs. 4-4-3) more Example SG4 DE breakthrough - no blitz Q1 5:15 4 and 3 to go on opp 44, Sebastian Ziegler (OC) snaps the ball to Matthias Schäfer (QB), Matthias Schäfer (QB) selected Aldo Feuerstein (WR/R) as target, Abdullah Hassan (DE/L) breaks through the line, Chalermchai Thawan (FB/R) blocks, the pass goes outer right to the receiver, who catches the ball, Aldo Feuerstein (WR/R) tackled by Nicky Leakona (CB/L), forward progress: 7 yards, New first down (Shotgun 4 WR vs. 3-4-4) more So far, so good same behaviour for I-Formation and SG4. What is just odd, that the FB always blocks the DE, even if the FB has low blocking skil and takes on a Superstar DE The difference between the formations is when we have a blitz, and no DE managed to breakthrough Example I-Formation no DE breakthrough - blitz Q3 10:50 3 and 3 to go on own 43, Sebastian Ziegler (OC) snaps the ball to Matthias Schäfer (QB), Matthias Schäfer (QB) selected Lyman Dunn (WR/L) as target, Rubén Silva (MLB) goes for the blitz, Matthias Schäfer (QB) gets sacked by Rubén Silva (MLB), 7 yards for loss (I-formation vs. 3-4-4) more Example SG4 no DE breakthrough - blitz Q3 4:07 3 and 18 to go on opp 21, Sebastian Ziegler (OC) snaps the ball to Matthias Schäfer (QB), Matthias Schäfer (QB) selected Lyman Dunn (WR/L) as target, Rubén Silva (MLB) goes for the blitz, Chalermchai Thawan (FB/R) blocks, the pass goes outer left to the receiver, incomplete, he was not able to make the catch, no progress (Shotgun 4 WR vs. 3-3-5) more Here is the difference: Blitz in Shotgun, I cant find the text 'breaks through' Result: FB Blocks. Always, No sacks The same event in I Formation, the text 'FB blocks' is always missing, Sacks occur And that was the way I analyzed Copy the 31 play by play and pasted them in a spreadsheet use textfunctions to search for 'breaks through' , 'goes for the blitz' and 'blocks' analyze with a pivot table Last edited on 2016-05-29 19:57:02 by hollyhh2000 |
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Meitheisman
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posted: 2016-05-29 21:36:57 (ID: 100077928) Report Abuse |
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Doc wrote:I'm not being argumentative.
I'm sorry but you are being argumentative. It feels like you came into this thread thinking "I'm going to poke a hole in holly's statement" as opposed to coming in thinking "let's look at the data and see if he has a point." I'm saying this because you keep making straw man arguments, going away from the main point. Your point about the text fails to address the sack part of the statistics I already highlighted for you. - 600 passes from SG with 1 blitzer and no DE breaking through = 0 sack. - 230 passes from non-SG formations with 1 blitzer and no DE breaking through = 51 sacks. One sack every ~4.5 blitz from non-SG formations versus 0 sack in 600 blitzes from SG formations. That's a HUGE difference in play result, regardless of what the play description says. Even if the text said "The FB was eating a hot dog on the sideline and refused to make a block" if the end result is that the QB never gets sacked what the text says becomes irrelevant. So now that we can reasonably say that QBs getting sacked is not the result of poor wording how do you explain this difference, 600 blizers 0 sack versus 230 blitzers 51 sacks? I'll be honest, I came into this thread doubting holly's theory but I've now seen his data, I've checked quite a few games my team played, some Power Mode friendly cup games and every bit of data I look at points in the same direction so I'm left with no option but agreeing with holly's point unless you can uncover some contradicting data. And if you really think there's a problem with the data since you offered to run scrimmages why don't you test it out? Play a scrimmage where all you do is pass from SG2/SG4 against a 75% blitzing defense. Then you play another scrimmage where all you do is pass from 2 other formations with a FB (Flex/Wish/Iform/Goalline) against a 75% blitzing defense. With no DE breaking through I bet you will have 0 sack against SG2/4 while you'll get some against other formations but if you prove the opposite I'll change my mind again  |
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