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Main / Sea Devils / Sea Devils 1.1 Season 24 Search Forum
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Browka
posted: 2017-02-14 23:01:56 (ID: 100097976) Report Abuse
MOTY is too much risk again a strong opponent. Your players will be exhausted in Q4 and you will lose. Well, it's my experience with MOTY at our level.

And playoff locked for me. Too bad I cannot compete for seed 2.
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jagreen
posted: 2017-02-14 23:50:15 (ID: 100097984)  Edits found: 1 Report Abuse
Browka wrote:
MOTY is too much risk again a strong opponent. Your players will be exhausted in Q4 and you will lose. Well, it's my experience with MOTY at our level.

And playoff locked for me. Too bad I cannot compete for seed 2.


I agree... this is my experience with MOTY too.

Last edited on 2017-02-15 00:11:32 by jagreen

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JbHeng
posted: 2017-02-15 02:15:39 (ID: 100097995) Report Abuse
jagreen wrote:
Browka wrote:
MOTY is too much risk again a strong opponent. Your players will be exhausted in Q4 and you will lose. Well, it's my experience with MOTY at our level.

And playoff locked for me. Too bad I cannot compete for seed 2.


I agree... this is my experience with MOTY too.


I would say MOTY is only worth it on 50-50 (let's say top 40-60) match up that you HAVE to win. Otherwise you burn too much energy for a loss and you spend a couple of weeks making up for the extra effort (without even mentionning the fact you lose training points to this)...
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Fincyril
posted: 2017-02-15 07:26:57 (ID: 100098006)  Edits found: 1 Report Abuse
I do not agree with you on the energy part. Sure MOTY will not be enough to beat a team way stronger. But it does not mean losing Q4 in all cases due to energy loss.

I win some MOTY games when being behind at half time and doing great in Q4. My last MOTY against Chimera, we had 3-3 in Q4 and 13-3 for me in second half.

Blaming MOTY on a loss is too easy. The reasons are several (player level, DC match-up, PB match-up, luck...).

Last edited on 2017-02-15 07:33:35 by Fincyril

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WorpeX
posted: 2017-02-15 12:28:48 (ID: 100098014) Report Abuse
jagreen wrote:
WorpeX wrote:
I secretly don't want to make the play-offs this season. I want to break this stupid curse somehow and just not being there is the easiest way.

That said, if you have MOTY still jagreen.... you better use it Saturday cause i'm using mine. My vets are coming out to play too, rookies have seen enough action.


Nope not using it but I have it. Your statement is illogical. You dont want to make the playoffs but you are playing vets and MOTY?

I'm glad I want to win straight up.

I lost by one point to SVM, 2 points to MSU. I wish I could have taken one of those.


Oh I never said it was logical. I'm not a tanker, if I'm going to miss the play-offs this season then I'm going to miss it by giving it my best.

Not sure what you mean by win straight up, I'm literally putting my 100% into this match, can't get more straight up than that.
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jagreen
posted: 2017-02-15 13:13:37 (ID: 100098016)  Edits found: 1 Report Abuse
WorpeX wrote:
jagreen wrote:
WorpeX wrote:
I secretly don't want to make the play-offs this season. I want to break this stupid curse somehow and just not being there is the easiest way.

That said, if you have MOTY still jagreen.... you better use it Saturday cause i'm using mine. My vets are coming out to play too, rookies have seen enough action.


Nope not using it but I have it. Your statement is illogical. You dont want to make the playoffs but you are playing vets and MOTY?

I'm glad I want to win straight up.

I lost by one point to SVM, 2 points to MSU. I wish I could have taken one of those.


Oh I never said it was logical. I'm not a tanker, if I'm going to miss the play-offs this season then I'm going to miss it by giving it my best.

Not sure what you mean by win straight up, I'm literally putting my 100% into this match, can't get more straight up than that.


Good I just meant if I'm going to win I want to do it with you giving your best. And you sort of insinuated that when I beat you a few weeks back you were not giving your best as the young guys were playing.

Last edited on 2017-02-15 13:16:02 by jagreen

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Fincyril
posted: 2017-02-15 14:20:00 (ID: 100098022) Report Abuse
ulero wrote:Add SVM into calculation too.


SVM is out. Their will be a winner between Dalton and Chimera and he will be above SVM no matter what. Then SVM can not catch up Rosenheim or Dublin PD. So at least 3 teams that will finish for sure in front of him for only 3 spots.

Dalton can not pass Dublin. And at least either Rosenheim or KHT will stay behind them. So Dublin got the ticket already.

Rosenheim is out if both Chimera and KHT win. Qualified in any other case.

Chimera will be qualified if they win, no matter the score or other results.

More difficult for Dalton. They qualify with a win and a win from Rosenheim. If KHT and Dalton win with big PD, Dalton may qualify as well.

KHT will qualify if they win. If not they are out.

For me:

Because of MOTY, I see Chimera win against Dalton.
Then I see Rosenheim (MOTY available and impossible win in SC PO) defeat KHT.

Chimera 70% chances
Rosenheim 60% chances
KHT 40% chances
Dalton 20% chances

In the NC, Pznan et Java who face each other will need to win very big and hope for a big loss from Gdansk against Devon. Very unlikely.

Gdansk 90%
Poznan 10%
Java 5%
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WorpeX
posted: 2017-02-15 14:55:33 (ID: 100098029)  Edits found: 1 Report Abuse
jagreen wrote:
WorpeX wrote:
jagreen wrote:
WorpeX wrote:
I secretly don't want to make the play-offs this season. I want to break this stupid curse somehow and just not being there is the easiest way.

That said, if you have MOTY still jagreen.... you better use it Saturday cause i'm using mine. My vets are coming out to play too, rookies have seen enough action.


Nope not using it but I have it. Your statement is illogical. You dont want to make the playoffs but you are playing vets and MOTY?

I'm glad I want to win straight up.

I lost by one point to SVM, 2 points to MSU. I wish I could have taken one of those.


Oh I never said it was logical. I'm not a tanker, if I'm going to miss the play-offs this season then I'm going to miss it by giving it my best.

Not sure what you mean by win straight up, I'm literally putting my 100% into this match, can't get more straight up than that.


Good I just meant if I'm going to win I want to do it with you giving your best. And you sort of insinuated that when I beat you a few weeks back you were not giving your best as the young guys were playing.


yeah I used a lot of young guys during the season as I don't see any reasons to play players who are going to retire at the end of the season or are only a season away. I'd rather play the long game and get the younger players experience. Most of them will be starters next season anyway, might as well get a season headstart imo. Really wasn't that many players, maybe only 4 or 5. Wouldn't have changed the result before.

Last edited on 2017-02-15 14:56:19 by WorpeX

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jagreen
posted: 2017-02-15 15:09:38 (ID: 100098031)  Edits found: 1 Report Abuse
Fincyril wrote:
ulero wrote:Add SVM into calculation too.


SVM is out. Their will be a winner between Dalton and Chimera and he will be above SVM no matter what. Then SVM can not catch up Rosenheim or Dublin PD. So at least 3 teams that will finish for sure in front of him for only 3 spots.

Dalton can not pass Dublin. And at least either Rosenheim or KHT will stay behind them. So Dublin got the ticket already.

Rosenheim is out if both Chimera and KHT win. Qualified in any other case.

Chimera will be qualified if they win, no matter the score or other results.

More difficult for Dalton. They qualify with a win and a win from Rosenheim. If KHT and Dalton win with big PD, Dalton may qualify as well.

KHT will qualify if they win. If not they are out.

For me:

Because of MOTY, I see Chimera win against Dalton.
Then I see Rosenheim (MOTY available and impossible win in SC PO) defeat KHT.

Chimera 70% chances
Rosenheim 60% chances
KHT 40% chances
Dalton 20% chances

In the NC, Pznan et Java who face each other will need to win very big and hope for a big loss from Gdansk against Devon. Very unlikely.

Gdansk 90%
Poznan 10%
Java 5%


Yep. I definitely think Chimera has the upper hand and I will be scouting like mad this time around. Using a playbook on Offense from earlier in the season... I have 4 that I like, but only use 3 most of the time. I've been using a pass heavy one the last four or so game weeks, may have to rotate back to a more balanced book from earlier.

Last edited on 2017-02-15 15:10:17 by jagreen

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barryfrick
posted: 2017-02-15 15:48:33 (ID: 100098033) Report Abuse
I'm not necessarily through.

If Dalton win, I progress.

If I lose and all of Chichester, KHT and Rosenheim win, I'm out.
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