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| Main / Discussions / Unlikely big plays after sacks Search Forum | |
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Cheesehead
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posted: 2017-01-06 11:05:49 (ID: 100095250) Report Abuse |
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I had a friendly last night and 10 sacks occurred during the game so a good sample size for one game:
sack 1 - opp10 - 2nd and 17 - no catch (red zone) sack 2 - opp17 - 4th and 17 - turnover on downs (red zone) sack 3 - own16 - 2nd and 18 - 20 yards, new first down sack 4 - own47 - 2nd and 20 - overthrown sack 5 - own25 - 3rd and 18 - sacked again sack 6 - own10 - 4th and 25 - 23 yards, no first down sack 7 - own20 - 2nd and 19 - overthrown sack 8 - opp12 - 2nd and 12 - sacked again (red zone) sack 9 - opp20 - 3rd and 20 - 4 yards pass, no first down sack 10 - own32 - 2nd and 19 - 4 yards run, no first down There were 20 big plays, one resulting in a 1st down and the other 2 yards short of a 1st down. I was sacked twice after a play where I was sacked. The big plays occurred in the own half of the offensive team which makes sense as the playing field is much bigger then. I know this is empirical evidence and I will continue to monitor this... |
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Rock777
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posted: 2017-01-07 22:38:10 (ID: 100095402) Report Abuse |
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How do you guys get your players to go for the 1st on 3rd down? Mine pretty much never convert on 3rd. It doesn't seem like they even try...
9:23 3 and 9 to go on own 37, Bryant Maddox (OC) snaps the ball to Lucas Burt (QB), Lucas Burt (QB) selected Lynn Foss (WR/L) as target, Michele Rosso (DE/L) breaks through the line, Dakhil Ibrahim (MLB) goes for the blitz, this outer left pass goes to the receiver, who catches the ball, Lynn Foss (WR/L) tackled by Warren Held (CB/R), forward progress: 3 yards (Singleback Spread vs. 3-4-4) |
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| posted: 2017-01-07 22:42:54 (ID: 100095406) Report Abuse | |
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Rock777 wrote:
How do you guys get your players to go for the 1st on 3rd down? Mine pretty much never convert on 3rd. It doesn't seem like they even try... 9:23 3 and 9 to go on own 37, Bryant Maddox (OC) snaps the ball to Lucas Burt (QB), Lucas Burt (QB) selected Lynn Foss (WR/L) as target, Michele Rosso (DE/L) breaks through the line, Dakhil Ibrahim (MLB) goes for the blitz, this outer left pass goes to the receiver, who catches the ball, Lynn Foss (WR/L) tackled by Warren Held (CB/R), forward progress: 3 yards (Singleback Spread vs. 3-4-4) Well you could rule medium pass or whatever the range is but the game does kind of do that anyway to a degree. Personnel (yours and theirs) really do have loads to do with what happens. Also this short pass is basically dump off - your QB was under pressure. |
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Rock777
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posted: 2017-01-07 22:48:49 (ID: 100095408) Report Abuse |
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That is probably THE answer. Everything always comes back to my inexperienced O-line. I'm sure my QB is under pressure most of the game.
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alexshans84
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posted: 2017-01-09 11:26:17 (ID: 100095541) Report Abuse |
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wiesengrund wrote:
hollyhh2000 wrote:
3rd and 7-10 24.3% Conversion Rate / 2.2% int 3rd and 11-20 25.8% Conversion Rate / 2.2% int 2nd and 7-10 27.7% Conversion Rate / 2.1% int 2nd and 11-20 26.0% Conversion Rate / 2.5% int Those drop-offs seem way to small. There should be a) a big difference between 2nd and 3rd down. On 2nd down, you have to defend the whole field, on 3rd down, defenses will key in in the conversion line 99% of the time, which makes it harder to convert 3rd and 15 vs 2nd and 15 for example. and b) The dropoff between 7-0 and 11-20 range is to small for both downs. If we take a look at the general conversion rates we can see how the curve for 3rd down for instance is right above 40% for 3rd and 7 and the steadily drops to about 35 % for 3rd and 10 (a far cry from the 24% we get in RZA). After that it drops to around 15% for 3rd and 19. If we wanna "bucket" the two grops according to the intervals we have at RZA, the difference should be stark: 3rd and 7-10 should average around 37%, and the 3rd and 11-20 group should average around 22%. a) Probably you are wrong here, mate. Here are the numbers for 2012-2016 regular season games (thanks to "play finder" by "pro-football-reference.com"): 3rd and 7-10 33.2% Conversion Rate / 3.1% int 3rd and 11-20 19.5% Conversion Rate / 2.9% int 2nd and 7-10 32% Conversion Rate / 2.1% int 2nd and 11-20 18.1% Conversion Rate / 2.0% int |
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wiesengrund
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posted: 2017-01-09 13:03:58 (ID: 100095552) Edits found: 1 Report Abuse |
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alexshans84 wrote:
wiesengrund wrote:
hollyhh2000 wrote:
3rd and 7-10 24.3% Conversion Rate / 2.2% int 3rd and 11-20 25.8% Conversion Rate / 2.2% int 2nd and 7-10 27.7% Conversion Rate / 2.1% int 2nd and 11-20 26.0% Conversion Rate / 2.5% int Those drop-offs seem way to small. There should be a) a big difference between 2nd and 3rd down. On 2nd down, you have to defend the whole field, on 3rd down, defenses will key in in the conversion line 99% of the time, which makes it harder to convert 3rd and 15 vs 2nd and 15 for example. and b) The dropoff between 7-0 and 11-20 range is to small for both downs. If we take a look at the general conversion rates we can see how the curve for 3rd down for instance is right above 40% for 3rd and 7 and the steadily drops to about 35 % for 3rd and 10 (a far cry from the 24% we get in RZA). After that it drops to around 15% for 3rd and 19. If we wanna "bucket" the two grops according to the intervals we have at RZA, the difference should be stark: 3rd and 7-10 should average around 37%, and the 3rd and 11-20 group should average around 22%. a) Probably you are wrong here, mate. Here are the numbers for 2012-2016 regular season games (thanks to "play finder" by "pro-football-reference.com"): 3rd and 7-10 33.2% Conversion Rate / 3.1% int 3rd and 11-20 19.5% Conversion Rate / 2.9% int 2nd and 7-10 32% Conversion Rate / 2.1% int 2nd and 11-20 18.1% Conversion Rate / 2.0% int Thanks for the update, the conversion rate does indeed seem to get modeled fine in terms of difference betwwen 2nd and 3rd, but INT% still rises a whole percentage point from 2nd to 3rd down. In RZA it stays steady or even drops (!). Last edited on 2017-01-09 13:06:33 by wiesengrund |
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Cheesehead
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posted: 2017-01-09 14:28:46 (ID: 100095556) Report Abuse |
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I had 3 sacks in today's SC game, none of them resulted in big plays in the play following the sack.
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hollyhh2000
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posted: 2017-01-09 21:32:25 (ID: 100095588) Report Abuse |
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3 sacks
3 immediate 18+ yards conversion on the next play so frustrating... |
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| posted: 2017-01-09 21:41:20 (ID: 100095589) Report Abuse | |
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hollyhh2000 wrote:
3 sacks 3 immediate 18+ yards conversion on the next play so frustrating... You might want to evaluate the defense you are using. 10 sacks vs pete's guiness drunks 2 were on 3rd down. around 6 were on on 2nd down. Only 1 was converted on the next play. |
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hollyhh2000
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posted: 2017-01-09 22:06:26 (ID: 100095591) Report Abuse |
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was the best defense in this situation in the whole league last year.
never ever evaluate on just one game. His QB was on fire on 3rd and long, maybe a great daily form. |
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