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| Main / Discussions / ELO - slow to adjust? Search Forum | |
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Rock777
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posted: 2017-05-15 21:09:11 (ID: 100104248) Report Abuse |
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But other teams which slide backward in power will be losing all their games and getting 30 point moral penalties every couple days. You can't recover moral when you are losing it that fast. Four loses in one week (realtime) could put you at 0 moral and ensure you never win a game. Which doesn't really make sense if you are losing to teams that are actually better then you.
I don't think anyone is really arguing the moral penalty here. More the in accuracy of the rankings. No system can ever be perfect. I just think there is plenty of room to improve the ranking system to be slightly more reactive (quicker than a 3 season lag). |
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| posted: 2017-05-15 21:10:57 (ID: 100104250) Report Abuse | |
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hollyhh2000 wrote:
Most of the time in the year, you are right, but look at Landru right now. They lost to a very good team and have no time to recover before the wild card game tomorrow there is no real solution to it as long as we stick with 3 competitions. |
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| posted: 2017-05-15 21:13:30 (ID: 100104252) Report Abuse | |
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Rock777 wrote:
But other teams which slide backward in power will be losing all their games and getting 30 point moral penalties every couple days. You can't recover moral when you are losing it that fast. Four loses in one week (realtime) could put you at 0 moral and ensure you never win a game. Which doesn't really make sense if you are losing to teams that are actually better then you. I don't think anyone is really arguing the moral penalty here. More the in accuracy of the rankings. No system can ever be perfect. I just think there is plenty of room to improve the ranking system to be slightly more reactive (quicker than a 3 season lag). The ranking and the downsides of losing a game are there for reasons. It helps to maintain kind of a balance. And yes, it is harsh to former top teams. However, teams do not lose games automatically because of Morale... |
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| posted: 2017-05-15 21:18:26 (ID: 100104255) Report Abuse | |
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thomastem wrote:
How many trophies are in your case? The answer is always the same "not enough"! BTW....been using my swimming pool. Steve SD Blitz |
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Rock777
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posted: 2017-05-15 21:18:29 (ID: 100104256) Report Abuse |
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pete wrote:
Rock777 wrote:
But other teams which slide backward in power will be losing all their games and getting 30 point moral penalties every couple days. You can't recover moral when you are losing it that fast. Four loses in one week (realtime) could put you at 0 moral and ensure you never win a game. Which doesn't really make sense if you are losing to teams that are actually better then you. I don't think anyone is really arguing the moral penalty here. More the in accuracy of the rankings. No system can ever be perfect. I just think there is plenty of room to improve the ranking system to be slightly more reactive (quicker than a 3 season lag). The ranking and the downsides of losing a game are there for reasons. It helps to maintain kind of a balance. And yes, it is harsh to former top teams. However, teams do not lose games automatically because of Morale... I totally support both the rankings and the downsides. I just think the ranking recalibrates too slowly. For both former top teams and former bottom teams. |
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Rock777
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posted: 2017-05-15 21:19:50 (ID: 100104257) Report Abuse |
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On a side note, you can lose more moral losing a game than firing a coach. Shows how little value the players hold for the coaching staff
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| posted: 2017-05-15 21:20:07 (ID: 100104258) Report Abuse | |
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That is the idea of ELO. ELO reflects the development of an entity over its whole career. There is no "just the last x years" option in this math.
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Rock777
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posted: 2017-05-15 21:40:02 (ID: 100104265) Report Abuse |
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Could probably be adapted though by doing yearly calculations separately and weighting them differently.
After all the 49ers where a dynasty in their day. Are they really going into games today expecting a Montana performance out of their starting QB? |
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| posted: 2017-05-15 21:43:24 (ID: 100104266) Report Abuse | |
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Doing it season by season is just too fast. See....the Pats are expected to play POs, to enter Bowls every other year, to win a 6th ring within the next few seasons....this expectation is nothing else than ELO, somehow
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Rock777
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posted: 2017-05-15 21:51:12 (ID: 100104269) Report Abuse |
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Yeah, but QB and the coach retire, and we could suddenly be back in the Grogan era. Sure expectations might still be high the next year, but after going 4-12, no one would continue to expect a high performance the following year. No one would expect the team to knock of the current champions.
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