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| Main / Discussions / ELO - slow to adjust? Search Forum | |
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Rock777
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posted: 2017-05-15 21:52:54 (ID: 100104270) Edits found: 1 Report Abuse |
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In Boston expectations definitely shift from season to season, and its highly dependent on how the team did last year, not so much how they did 3 years ago.
I'm not suggesting you ignore 3 years ago, just weigh it less than prior year. Then you can tweak the weightings until you are happy with exactly how quickly/slowly it changes. Last edited on 2017-05-15 21:54:36 by Rock777 |
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| posted: 2017-05-15 21:55:10 (ID: 100104272) Report Abuse | |
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I really doubt that expectations go up and down that fast
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Rock777
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posted: 2017-05-15 22:49:19 (ID: 100104280) Report Abuse |
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They do. We've been experiencing the effect first hand with the Red Sox lately. Most people in Boston consider it a "win" if the Celtics or Bruins just make the playoffs. But those expectations change dynamically and fluidly year to year. This year people had slightly higher expectations of the Celtics than in recent years (most folks consider beating the Wizards success this year).
Pro sports in the US are a bit different than something like College or Bundesliga where banked cash and prestige can ensure you corner the market on talented players. Drafts and caps ensure a more level playing field and power fluctuates more dynamically throughout the league. That in turn makes expectations fluctuate more dynamically. And really we are talking about player expectations rather than fans, which are probably more realistic. |
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bwadders76
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posted: 2017-05-16 01:11:23 (ID: 100104298) Report Abuse |
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Isn't it weighted like with other sports rankings systems? This seasons results should have a bigger bearing on morale and the ELO than the same game back in season 8 for example. Depending upon how it's worked it shouldn't be too difficult to factor in.
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Rock777
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posted: 2017-05-16 05:44:05 (ID: 100104309) Report Abuse |
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No ELO is not weighted. Which is why I suggested adding weights.
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Meitheisman
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posted: 2017-05-16 10:48:41 (ID: 100104323) Report Abuse |
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pete wrote:
I really doubt that expectations go up and down that fast They certainly aren't linear though. If a team wins a SB in season X, in season X+1 the expectations are going to be high but in season X+20 the relevance of the SB win 20 year prior will be much smaller than in season X+1. |
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Lamba
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posted: 2017-05-16 13:38:51 (ID: 100104341) Report Abuse |
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Rock777 wrote:
They do. We've been experiencing the effect first hand with the Red Sox lately. Most people in Boston consider it a "win" if the Celtics or Bruins just make the playoffs. But those expectations change dynamically and fluidly year to year. This year people had slightly higher expectations of the Celtics than in recent years (most folks consider beating the Wizards success this year). Pro sports in the US are a bit different than something like College or Bundesliga where banked cash and prestige can ensure you corner the market on talented players. Drafts and caps ensure a more level playing field and power fluctuates more dynamically throughout the league. That in turn makes expectations fluctuate more dynamically. And really we are talking about player expectations rather than fans, which are probably more realistic. Not to mention that American sports don't have a relegation/promotion system at the very top, so it's not like they're risking anything by having a crap year. In here, Steve could be completely crippled solely because some artificial score says he should perform better. Even in games, you sometimes have a down period (compared to your previous merits) and you shouldn't be completely ruined because of said periods. There's a lot of things I think should be different in this game, due to it not simulating IRL (promotions/relegations for example) and as such it should have a greater creative freedom to create solutions compared to what we see IRL. I don't know if doing weighted ELO is a solution or just leave ELO be and create another background score that fluctuates more. Sure, if Patriots have a down year, the morale might take a hit and the fans might be unhappy. If they have two or three (like the Ravens have had after some very good seasons) now it starts really hitting. I like that Madden has made it rather easy to keep high confidence (+rating) even if you're a .500 team. Only if you're on a losing streak it's beginning to be really tough and it can be quite the challenge to turn around a losing (Browns) franchise. When on a good streak though...  |
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| posted: 2017-05-16 17:04:42 (ID: 100104356) Report Abuse | |
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Well - the morale issue does help to simulate losing streaks, like teams in RL have.
It does help to simulate inexplicable wins by teams that shouldn't win. It does help simulate teams losing games that they should win. |
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Rock777
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posted: 2017-05-16 18:09:01 (ID: 100104368) Edits found: 1 Report Abuse |
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punch drunk wrote:
Well - the morale issue does help to simulate losing streaks, like teams in RL have. It does help to simulate inexplicable wins by teams that shouldn't win. It does help simulate teams losing games that they should win. I think the RNG already does a pretty good job with that though. I don't have any issue with the moral lose, just the player expectations (based on ELO) are pretty unrealistic. Last edited on 2017-05-16 18:10:24 by Rock777 |
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JonnyP
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posted: 2017-05-16 20:27:46 (ID: 100104381) Report Abuse |
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Wow, bizarrely I find myself agreeing with Rock again.... this is unusual!!
The morale hit is fine for teams that are currently/recently successful - I think we all agree with that. Losing streaks are a part of competitive sport. The fact that squad members still suffer huge morale hits several seasons after a team was successful is a problem however... As Steve said, his team is not the best in RZA any more - it was for many seasons, but now both Wilmersdorf and the Black Dragons are the ones to beat, and ELO is a bit too slow in catching up with that fact. I think a 10% dropoff per season would do the job fine, so past glories do linger for while. |
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