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| Main / Discussions / The Luck Factor Search Forum | |
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Meitheisman
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posted: 2018-06-06 17:22:01 (ID: 100129599) Report Abuse |
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I've been playing a bunch of scrimmages - currently playing my 77th
In every single scrimmage I pick the same depth chart for both teams, with my best players, and the same offensive and defensive playbooks. I'll post the final number when I get it but I feel like the average point difference is a bit high in these games, a few of them were won by more than 40 points for example. Has anyone played scrimmages like this and found more close games? PS: The offensive playbook I use has no medium or long passes and the team losing still runs the ball every now and then to keep the defense honest so the point difference is not due to the team losing going all long passes to try a crazy come back at the end of the game. |
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| posted: 2018-06-06 17:43:55 (ID: 100129601) Report Abuse | |
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my last two...
42:24 30:24 same conditions as yours |
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| posted: 2018-06-06 21:30:23 (ID: 100129609) Report Abuse | |
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Yes, the variance between final score can be large.
- what are the consistencies of your coaches? How big a factor could that be? What I find interesting is the performance of the O-Line. I would think the blocking statistics from game to game would be pretty similar, but I often see quite a difference. Steve SD Blitz |
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| posted: 2018-06-06 21:49:13 (ID: 100129612) Report Abuse | |
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When i've played scrimmages like this i've seen the same thing, some close games but also lots of blowouts. What i have noticed though is that the stats for individual players and yards etc are closer than the scores, this to me is the luck part where one or two plays makes all the difference. It's been said that entire seasons can come down to one or two plays in real life
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Meitheisman
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posted: 2018-06-07 11:18:08 (ID: 100129630) Report Abuse |
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The coaches' consistency may be a factor too, you're right Steve.
So after 82 scrimmages the average point difference is 15.21 points. The only 2 factors contributing to this would be luck and coaches' consistency, right? |
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Schwabe
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posted: 2018-06-07 20:12:39 (ID: 100129639) Report Abuse |
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But luck means not randomness in the engine. It's also the luck of the right matchups at the right moment. 3rd's are a huge factor sometimes. Goal-Line-Stands are also deciders. There are a lot of factors we can call luck, not only the random thing in the engine.
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Meitheisman
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posted: 2018-06-07 22:14:46 (ID: 100129645) Report Abuse |
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Just so know you're the first and only person to mention the engine in this thread, the luck factor includes a bunch of things, 3rd down as you said, turnovers, etc... I was just interested in trying to measure it's overall impact.
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Captain Jack
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posted: 2018-06-08 09:28:10 (ID: 100129647) Report Abuse |
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But the engine does include an element of luck.
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Meitheisman
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posted: 2018-06-08 11:00:07 (ID: 100129649) Report Abuse |
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Of course, the engine can increase or decrease the luck factor but before making a case for either it has to be measured as accurately as possible first and then discussed.
I've now had a bit more time so did a little breakdown of all my scrimmages. Point Difference and % of games - 7 points or less: 30.5% - 8 to 14 points: 19.5% - 15 to 21 points: 28.0% - 22 to 28 points: 9.8% - 29 to 35 points: 7.3% - 36 to 42 points: 4.9% Average difference: 15.2 points |
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Schwabe
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posted: 2018-06-09 07:19:15 (ID: 100129662) Report Abuse |
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I think that are plausible numbers.
I would like to know how they are splitted to the quarters. If the most points of the high difference games are in the first and the last quarter, I think it's plausible. Third should be a bit lower and second the lowest numbers. In the the low difference games the lowest numbers should be in the first quarter, the other three quarters should have the same numbers in the average. |
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