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| Main / Discussions / 3rd and 25yrd to go Search Forum | |
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PJRAVENS
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posted: 2020-02-26 08:57:40 (ID: 100146916) Report Abuse |
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Tullo Ostilio wrote:
PJ,one play do not make statistics Right! It was not my purpose. Tullo Ostilio wrote:
I've never seen a pass intercepted by a SF or a WR tackle by a SF in this play. I answered this. Again I am not against your opinion. |
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| posted: 2020-02-26 15:32:37 (ID: 100146932) Report Abuse | |
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The examples PJ gave for SF interceptions are interesting in that yes they are all 10 yards or under, but they also appear to be medium and long passes based on "... For 15 yards/25 yards" etc. I'd be interested to know if there are significantly more SF interceptions when the playbook is set to medium or long pass compared to it being a medium or long pass due to yards required but the playbook says normal pass, if that makes sense?
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PJRAVENS
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posted: 2020-02-26 16:32:05 (ID: 100146933) Edits found: 1 Report Abuse |
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Jonny Utah wrote:
The examples PJ gave for SF interceptions are interesting in that yes they are all 10 yards or under, but they also appear to be medium and long passes based on "... For 15 yards/25 yards" etc. I'd be interested to know if there are significantly more SF interceptions when the playbook is set to medium or long pass compared to it being a medium or long pass due to yards required but the playbook says normal pass, if that makes sense? I agree with you that in the example I reported seems to appear to be medium and long passes based on "... For 15 yards/25 yards" and so when the playbook is set to medium or long pass. In case of 2 & long and 3 & long we cannot know if the playbook was set as pass or pass medium or pass deep. I usually set pass knowing the main task of the QB is close the down but it is not forbidden set a rule using pass deep… Anyway at the moment I have not found yet in my database a SF interception in case of 2 & long and 3 & long , only a tackle. Q3 9:12 2 and 17 to go on opp 24, Gustav Scheiben (OC) snaps the ball to Daniel McCain (QB), Daniel McCain (QB) selected Willie Smith (WR/R) as target, Phinihan Teo (DE/R) breaks through the line, Efrén Alonso (OLB/R) seems to go for the blitz, the pass goes inner right to the receiver, who catches the ball, tackled by Cleveland Mattox (SS/L), forward progress: 15 yards (Singleback Spread vs. 3-4-4) more Tonight I well check. Last edited on 2020-02-26 16:33:33 by PJRAVENS |
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| posted: 2020-02-26 18:54:39 (ID: 100146937) Report Abuse | |
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Awesome
 how many games does your database cover? |
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PJRAVENS
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posted: 2020-02-26 22:16:45 (ID: 100146947) Edits found: 2 Report Abuse |
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Jonny Utah wrote:
Awesome how many games does your database cover?In this regular season I had to scout 13 teams. I download an average of 16 games per team in order to take a look. In total I merged in only one database 217 games for this post purpose. Not enough at all to be honest to have a clear statistics and I am not sure at all that it is a "clean" database because some matches can easily be duplicate. In order to find the play where SF intercepted or takled it is clean because I can purge duplicate plays, for the stat below we can have a result a little "dirty" We are talking about 20377 passing plays It seems to me that tha engine works really well (I had no doubt). (sacks are not included) To1st Att C I AVGY %C N1st N1st/Att N1st/C 1 1171 763 381 3.36 65.16% 753 64.30% 98.69% 2 1118 738 346 3.35 66.01% 729 65.21% 98.78% 3 827 534 265 3.45 64.57% 513 62.03% 96.07% 4 844 541 283 3.42 64.10% 477 56.52% 88.17% 5 618 393 192 3.30 63.59% 269 43.53% 68.45% 6 516 349 150 3.79 67.64% 193 37.40% 55.30% 7 418 273 120 3.44 65.31% 116 27.75% 42.49% 8 199 124 64 3.26 62.31% 25 12.56% 20.16% 9 787 524 220 3.60 66.58% 58 7.37% 11.07% 10 12219 7810 3882 6.48 63.92% 4800 39.28% 61.46% 11 609 379 195 7.44 62.23% 261 42.86% 68.87% 12 365 233 113 7.86 63.84% 158 43.29% 67.81% 13 26 16 6 6.46 61.54% 10 38.46% 62.50% 14 26 13 9 4.62 50.00% 5 19.23% 38.46% 15 13 7 6 5.15 53.85% 3 23.08% 42.86% 16 19 8 7 5.53 42.11% 5 26.32% 62.50% 17 180 90 77 6.22 50.00% 41 22.78% 45.56% 18 153 78 56 7.56 50.98% 50 32.68% 64.10% 19 122 59 49 7.54 48.36% 32 26.23% 54.24% 20 114 54 49 7.75 47.37% 36 31.58% 66.67% 21 9 5 4 8.11 55.56% 2 22.22% 40.00% 22 3 3 0 23.00 100.00% 3 100.00% 100.00% 24 1 1 0 9.00 100.00% 0 0.00% 0.00% 25 4 1 3 1.25 25.00% 0 0.00% 0.00% 26 6 4 2 14.00 66.67% 2 33.33% 50.00% 27 5 1 4 6.00 20.00% 1 20.00% 100.00% 28 2 0 2 0.00 0.00% 0 0.00% 0.00% 29 3 0 3 0.00 0.00% 0 0.00% 0.00% You can see that the try over 20+ are only 33 (0.16%) of the total. Completion 45.5% New 1st 24% So it seems to me there is nothing to warry about. In this 217 games 8 SF interceptions 6 with To1st = 10 yds 1 with To1st = 7 yds 1 wth To1st = 4 yds SF tackles in long passing plays To1st Tackler Att 16 (FS/R) 1 17 (FS/C) 1 17 (SS/C) 1 17 (SS/L) 1 18 (FS/C) 2 18 (SS/C) 2 18 (SS/L) 1 19 (SS/C) 2 20 (FS/R) 1 20 (SS/C) 2 21 (FS/C) 1 The long plays are so few that it is not easy at all give you an answer. Last edited on 2020-02-26 22:54:33 by PJRAVENS |
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| posted: 2020-02-27 07:16:22 (ID: 100146956) Report Abuse | |
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Thanks so much for the stats PJ
It is a difficult one to figure out cuz we don't know how many medium/long passes were attempted for the 8 that were intercepted. |
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PJRAVENS
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posted: 2020-02-27 07:39:21 (ID: 100146957) Edits found: 2 Report Abuse |
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All appear to be medium and long passes based on "... For 15 yards/25 yards"
Q3 5:26 1 and 10 to go on own 42, Mathias Frederik (OC) snaps the ball to Brice Marechal (QB), Brice Marechal (QB) selected Sabri Abdul (WR/L) as target, he passes outer left for 25 yards to him, intercepted by Dominic Jeffery (FS/R) on the opp 33 (Shotgun 4 WR vs. 3-3-5) more Q3 0:51 2 and 10 to go on own 20, Mathias Frederik (OC) snaps the ball to Brice Marechal (QB), Brice Marechal (QB) selected Sabri Abdul (WR/L) as target, he passes outer left for 25 yards to him, intercepted by Dominic Jeffery (FS/R) on the own 45 (Shotgun 4 WR vs. 3-3-5) more Q3 0:36 1 and 10 to go on own 19, Mathias Frederik (OC) snaps the ball to Brice Marechal (QB), Brice Marechal (QB) selected Sabri Abdul (WR/L) as target, Heath Strain (DE/L) breaks through the line, Kristian Petersen (FB/R) blocks, he passes outer left for 25 yards to him, intercepted by Dominic Jeffery (FS/R) on the own 44 (Shotgun 4 WR vs. 3-3-5) more Q3 3:03 3 and 7 to go on own 8, Muir Strange (OC) snaps the ball to Jeppe Pedersen (QB), Jeppe Pedersen (QB) selected Hartmuth Herrmann (WR/R) as target, Gjore Pejcic (DE/R) breaks through the line, Maxim Müller (FB/C) blocks, he passes inner right for 15 yards to him, intercepted by Terrell Sharpe (FS/L) on the own 23 (Wishbone vs. 3-3-5) more Q4 1:11 3 and 10 to go on opp 48, Muir Strange (OC) snaps the ball to Jeppe Pedersen (QB), Jeppe Pedersen (QB) selected Hartmuth Herrmann (WR/L) as target, Maxwell Jaffa (DE/R) breaks through the line, he passes outer left for 25 yards to him, intercepted by Klaus-D. Schulte (FS/R) on the opp 23 (Singleback Big vs. 3-4-4) more Q1 1:15 2 and 10 to go on own 45, Kendrick Baird (OC) snaps the ball to Daniel Harmon (QB), Daniel Harmon (QB) selected Spencer Pittman (WR/R) as target, Sigmund Meyer (DE/R) breaks through the line, Tyler Grove (FB/R) blocks, he passes outer right for 15 yards to him, intercepted by Romano Guarneri (FS/L) on the opp 40 (Shotgun 4 WR vs. 3-3-5) more Q2 1:16 3 and 4 to go on own 13, Raphael McNeal (OC) snaps the ball to Brett Kimmel (QB), Brett Kimmel (QB) selected Jeramy Bunn (WR/L) as target, Arie Zinke (OLB/L) seems to go for the blitz, Ronnie Tidwell (FB/R) blocks, he passes outer left for 15 yards to him, intercepted by Hendrie Ketelaar (FS/R) on the own 28 (Shotgun 4 WR vs. 3-4-4) more Q4 2:52 2 and 10 to go on own 20, Curtis Lopes (OC) snaps the ball to Leon Godwin (QB), Leon Godwin (QB) selected Abram Benjamin (WR/L) as target, Rayford Seay (DE/L) breaks through the line, Sam Link (FB/R) blocks, he passes inner left for 25 yards to him, intercepted by Rocco Dimitrov (FS/R) on the own 45 (Shotgun 4 WR vs. 3-4-4) more 217 games total passing plays 20377. Plays 15+ 636 SF tackles 15 SF int 0 Plays 20+ 33 SF tackles 1 SF int 0 In order to collect 10000 20+ plays and have a raw statistic we would need a database of 66000 games. Last edited on 2020-02-27 08:06:11 by PJRAVENS |
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Tullo Ostilio
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posted: 2020-02-27 08:00:48 (ID: 100146958) Edits found: 2 Report Abuse |
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Nobody says that engine is not ok,the PJ statistics dimostrate that.
But the question is,in situation of second and third attempt and long distance to cover,which kind of pass the engine takes into account? The one write in the playbook or overrun it and change pass base on distance to cover? It seems from my statistics that engine take account of what is write on playbook that is in most cases a normal pass. For this reason FS are not involve in that situation,becouse is normal pass. Last edited on 2020-02-27 08:06:40 by Tullo Ostilio |
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PJRAVENS
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posted: 2020-02-27 08:23:47 (ID: 100146959) Edits found: 2 Report Abuse |
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If I remember correctly this post started with a request to fix a mechanic bug...
Glad to see Nobody says that engine is not ok I cannot demonstrate anything with just 217 games. I was only curious to see if it was true that all the 20+ passing plays leaded to a new first 1st down. In my small databas is not like this. Safety are involved in 15+ plays we can count 15 tackles, but no int Il collected only 636 plays. Now we cannot know the rules there were in the playbooks in case yds to go 11-20 or 20+ they could have been pass/pass medium/pass deep. Last edited on 2020-02-27 08:25:11 by PJRAVENS |
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PJRAVENS
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posted: 2020-02-27 20:58:44 (ID: 100146964) Edits found: 2 Report Abuse |
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3 & long SF int
Here the rule on the playbook could have been pass/pass medium/pass deep we will never known. Q3 6:07 3 and 20 to go on own 27, Traugott Schmitz (OC) snaps the ball to Benjamin Atuheire (QB), Benjamin Atuheire (QB) selected Frímann Magnússon (WR/L) as target, Dusty Lavigne (DE/R) breaks through the line, Memnun Jabir (FB/R) blocks, he passes outer left for 15 yards to him, intercepted by Khamla Saro-Wiwa (FS/R) on the own 42 (Shotgun 2 WR vs. 3-4-4) more Below we can suppose there were a pass deep rule Q1 12:31 3 and 13 to go on own 40, Joaquín Aguirre (OC) snaps the ball to Pascual Castro (QB), Pascual Castro (QB) selected Lorima Rokotakala (WR/L) as target, Kholadeth Somvang (OLB/R) seems to go for the blitz, Florentino Vidal (FB/R) blocks, he passes outer left for 25 yards to him, intercepted by Pablo Espuch (FS/R) on the opp 35 (Shotgun 4 WR vs. 3-4-4) more Last edited on 2020-02-27 21:11:12 by PJRAVENS |
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