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| posted: 2023-12-17 21:40:23 (ID: 100179614) Report Abuse | |
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My Orders are not allowing me playbook { in grey spot} could be because I have not started one? so only have 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Orders.. Q: why not a 2 minute Order Do you want to play a { play if 1 score down, Late } Run or Pass - just a small part to the Match. Bears -Browns game today!!!
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| posted: 2023-12-18 08:44:17 (ID: 100179618) Report Abuse | |
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G4ngsta wrote:
jack6 wrote:
Just checked the setup out of curriosity: I use that playbook, six lines, since season 39. League-Championships: season 39, 49 Conference Championship: season 39, 49, 52 Elite: season 40, 50, 53 It took me through the whole rebuild of my team between season 41 and 49 and I did not change as fas as I remember a single line. And on top, in the situation which was the initiation of that thread, it would kick a FG. 
Why? Because according to my expierence, the chances of throwing a successful hail mary are quite equal to forcing a fumble or an INT. So I don't bother. 
so Jack with a 6 point defeat in under a minute, of play, You would take a FG, as playbook rule, I would rather try a TD to take to OT, or TD Point After, to Win, But that is me wanting a Win or bust { already beat so why not?} As I started this then many lines have been seen.. I still ask - Why a HC or a QB could not try the TD pass/ run. on 4thDown. Let me show you WHY- the young new team are now looking at a chance to win Division and Play Off games- if they had won that game. if they come up short because the Match they had a chance to win , was taken away by a FG rather than a { pick6- fumble- interception } Play.. This is a simulation, based on math calculation. This is NOT a game, where you stand at the sideline and where you can draw up a play fitting to give you a chance to win. That means, all actions you can do in such a situation you have to put into the playbook prior the game. The options are limited. Assuming you are 6 behind, having 4th down and are on the 40 yard line, you need 12 yards for a 1st down to stay in the drive and 1:30 left in the game. In real live you can draw up a play, here you have to put in a line saying 4th down, behind 4-6, less than 2 mins to play and you s e l e c t WHICH PLAY? Run? Likely not. Pass? Likely too short, but could work on certain % of plays. Pass mid? Likely long enough, but prone to be an INT on certain % of the plays. Pass long? Same as pass mid, but with even higher chance to throw an INT. My PERSONAL feeling here is, if it comes down to that situation the chance to win is very small. So small that I just don't bother with it. So to answer your question, you I try to hit the 57 yarder (which could also be a miss) and try ti force a turnover. Will THAT happen? Likely not, but at the end, this is just a game and one thing is for sure, I do not put too much effort into it, especially not on playbook adjustments. That might be pathetic for some persons, but as every manager is free to do, my decision. If I need a desperate play to win 1 of 1000 games in that situation, I'm happy to NOT winning that 1 game also, since I try to avoid the situation and win before. And if I can't do it, then it is that way. |
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| posted: 2023-12-18 10:43:46 (ID: 100179619) Report Abuse | |
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jack6 wrote:
G4ngsta wrote:
jack6 wrote:
Just checked the setup out of curriosity: I use that playbook, six lines, since season 39. League-Championships: season 39, 49 Conference Championship: season 39, 49, 52 Elite: season 40, 50, 53 It took me through the whole rebuild of my team between season 41 and 49 and I did not change as fas as I remember a single line. And on top, in the situation which was the initiation of that thread, it would kick a FG.
Why? Because according to my expierence, the chances of throwing a successful hail mary are quite equal to forcing a fumble or an INT. So I don't bother.
so Jack with a 6 point defeat in under a minute, of play, You would take a FG, as playbook rule, I would rather try a TD to take to OT, or TD Point After, to Win, But that is me wanting a Win or bust { already beat so why not?} As I started this then many lines have been seen.. I still ask - Why a HC or a QB could not try the TD pass/ run. on 4thDown. Let me show you WHY- the young new team are now looking at a chance to win Division and Play Off games- if they had won that game. if they come up short because the Match they had a chance to win , was taken away by a FG rather than a { pick6- fumble- interception } Play.. This is a simulation, based on math calculation. This is NOT a game, where you stand at the sideline and where you can draw up a play fitting to give you a chance to win. That means, all actions you can do in such a situation you have to put into the playbook prior the game. The options are limited. Assuming you are 6 behind, having 4th down and are on the 40 yard line, you need 12 yards for a 1st down to stay in the drive and 1:30 left in the game. In real live you can draw up a play, here you have to put in a line saying 4th down, behind 4-6, less than 2 mins to play and you s e l e c t WHICH PLAY? Run? Likely not. Pass? Likely too short, but could work on certain % of plays. Pass mid? Likely long enough, but prone to be an INT on certain % of the plays. Pass long? Same as pass mid, but with even higher chance to throw an INT. My PERSONAL feeling here is, if it comes down to that situation the chance to win is very small. So small that I just don't bother with it. So to answer your question, you I try to hit the 57 yarder (which could also be a miss) and try ti force a turnover. Will THAT happen? Likely not, but at the end, this is just a game and one thing is for sure, I do not put too much effort into it, especially not on playbook adjustments. That might be pathetic for some persons, but as every manager is free to do, my decision. If I need a desperate play to win 1 of 1000 games in that situation, I'm happy to NOT winning that 1 game also, since I try to avoid the situation and win before. And if I can't do it, then it is that way.  yes Jack - I think some forget that this is a Manager Game, not just a Football one.. BUT it is better to Win a Match or Division then into Play Off games.. If you can |
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| posted: 2023-12-18 12:20:19 (ID: 100179623) Report Abuse | |
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I just did setup several scrimmage with that exterme playbook as in my previous simulation, but all passes as pass-mid.
The 1st one looks promissing. |
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| posted: 2023-12-19 08:39:46 (ID: 100179629) Report Abuse | |
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So the results are for pass-mid:
on roughly 2200 pass attempts I got 46.6% completion rate with an average of 14.6 yards on a completed pass. But I got also 12.8% INT rate on those 2200 passes. Translated that means, if you are desperate to play pass-mid, your chance for a competed pass is under 50%, which is not bad, since it is almost for sure than a 1st down. But also every 8th pass is an INT. That looks more promissing than I did expect it. Will do the same with pass long at some point. |
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| posted: 2023-12-19 10:40:08 (ID: 100179633) Report Abuse | |
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Doubts I have :
What level is the rival team? What level are the CB's and the LB's? And how do they have the PF? I suppose it must be difficult to extract precise data if each game our team and the rival are different. Furthermore, I think there is a random factor (5%?) that complicates it even more.  |
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| posted: 2023-12-19 12:51:20 (ID: 100179634) Report Abuse | |
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It was as test, my team vs my team, both with the same playbook and same defense, same depth chart.
Sure in reality against different teams this will be different but without such a test as mine, you have nothing. And this is at least a ballpark. |
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| posted: 2023-12-19 14:18:18 (ID: 100179635) Edits found: 1 Report Abuse | |
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I understand what you are saying Jack, I would just like it to be understood that in this game we will never be able to guarantee anything 100% because the situations will never be identical.
I read too many comments from managers who, faced with unexpected results, do not understand why their level 73.95 team has lost against another level 64.93 team or how in a game their level 49 CB has been massacred by a level 41 WR. And they don't understand that if the match were simulated again the result would most likely be different. It's one thing to want to know what the game is about and how to advance (your excellent guide is a great contribution to the community) and another thing is trying to "dissect" the engine to know exactly how it works. I sincerely think it is a waste of time.
Last edited on 2023-12-19 21:34:28 by Quimriera |
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| posted: 2023-12-20 12:00:01 (ID: 100179652) Report Abuse | |
Quimriera wrote:
I understand what you are saying Jack, I would just like it to be understood that in this game we will never be able to guarantee anything 100% because the situations will never be identical. I read too many comments from managers who, faced with unexpected results, do not understand why their level 73.95 team has lost against another level 64.93 team or how in a game their level 49 CB has been massacred by a level 41 WR. And they don't understand that if the match were simulated again the result would most likely be different. It's one thing to want to know what the game is about and how to advance (your excellent guide is a great contribution to the community) and another thing is trying to "dissect" the engine to know exactly how it works. I sincerely think it is a waste of time.
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| posted: 2023-12-20 14:19:43 (ID: 100179658) Report Abuse | |
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Quimriera wrote:
another thing is trying to "dissect" the engine to know exactly how it works. I sincerely think it is a waste of time.
Its definitly not a waste of time. Just dont expect to always win despite having a high percentage play and a better matchup. But you will win 60% of those situation instead of 50/50. We are too often fooled by small sample size. Example. long completion after a sack. Drives me nuts. Happens so often. But if you analyze enough plays from not lopsided competition, you will find out that some formations are better than other formations to defend 3rd and long it is far more frequent to convert 3rd and 15+ in RZA compared to the NFL. Still the odds in RZA to convert a 3rd down goes down with increasing distance to go. |
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