2025-11-13 07:30

With just 3 regular season gamedays left, the fields are beginning to narrow down, one way or another.

Unfortune for some fan bases, it seems their teams are not focused enough to bring the team to the sweet pot, called championship game seats and/or playoff seats.

We will have to wait, until the final verdicts are in, whether some losses are just exceptions to the regular results, or the start of a meltdown to season end.

Miami (OH) was the lone unbeaten team left inside the MAC and had to play Ohio on the road, slightly the underdog. They lost 20:24 and by that pushed the door inside the MAC wide open for the 2 championship game seats.
UCF was despite a 4-4 record and with only 1 BIG12 win so far in the pocket the small figure favorite against the guests from Houston. Well, Houston did a long time to get control over the game but won it 30:27 and are still with 2 losses in the hunt for championship seats behind the leading bunch of 3 teams with 1 loss each.
Wake Forest was aiming for a bowl eligibility, but had to visit leading team Virgina, which was favored by 7.5 points. Somehow did Wake Forest manage to keep the Cavaliers out of the endzone and won this game 16:9, which did a) opened up the ACC to now 5 leading teams with 1 loss each, including Virginia, and b) made the Demon Deacons bowl eligible.
Almost similar situation for Cal, only that Louisville was already hit once this season, but was favored by 18.5 points to win. Well, Cal did allow early the 4th quarter Louisville to tie the game but won in OT 29:26 to send a) Louisville into the field of hopeful 2-loss teams (together with Miami) and b) get the bowl status.
Wisconsin had a bad season so far, but did get their 1st BIG10 win by upsetting 10.5-point favorite Washington, 13:10.
Duke has played a good season so far and was favored to take down UConn by 7.5 points, but the Huskies had other plans and won this game 37:34. That did decline the Blue Devils bid for a bowl spot for at least a week and gives UConn the chance to match or even best the result of last season. They are right now at 7 wins and last year they had 9, including a bowl win.
Iowa State did take down TCU, 20:17. TCU is still looking for a boost on the seasons results to take them back to the top of the BIG-12, while Iowa State got their bowl eligibility by that win.
Clemson did bounce back from some bad games by winning against rival Florida State, 24:10. Right now I would bet that FSU will change the HC after the season.
And at last I have Hawai’is win against so far leading team of the Mountain West San Diego State, 38:6. That does open the MWC a little bit, but overall, not too much, unless in the next weeks mor upsets would happen to the top teams.

Let’s look at the games I did pick as preview last week and review them.

The BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 11

Sat. Nov 8
#7 BYU @ #8 Texas Tech
Oh man, BYU got schooled by the Red Raiders, big time.
The Cougars got no chance at all, did fail to score until the 4th quarter and were at that moment already 0:26 and on top did only score that one time. Texas Tech does look like a good choice for a championship game spot, BYU did not on that day and unfortune doesn’t also the 3rd leading team Cincinnati look like a champ.
The teams will play 3 more games each, so still room for adjustments in the standing, but right now does only TTU look like a team worth a championship AND a playoff spot.
#7 BYU 7 @ #8 Texas Tech 29 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 18-7

#3 Texas A&M @ #22 Missouri
Missouri never had a chance, from my point of view.
They were kept scoreless in the 1st half, then got a TD, but A&M still won that 3rd quarter and on the final 4th quarter did A&M score 2 more TDs, while Missouri just scored 10 points.
A&M is really on winning mode this season.
I think it’s save to say, that Missouri is out of any playoff contention. They are still ranked, thanks to their tough schedule, but with 3 losses, they would need total chaos in the last 3 weeks to get back into any conversation. Texas A&M is very close to get to the SEC Championship game and right now, I would say, they are already a lock for the playoffs.
#3 Texas A&M 38 @ #22 Missouri 17 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 19-7

#9 Oregon @ #20 Iowa
THAT did go almost as I did anticipate it. The difference was, Iowas defense did play way better than I did think they would and by that did Oregon really had something to prove.
The 1st quarter did only see a safety scored by Oregon, the 2nd was won by Oregon 10:7, so the Ducks went into the break with a 12:7 lead.
Iowa did fumble their chance to take the lead away after a long drive in the 3rd, already in the Ducks redzone, and were lucky the Ducks got only a field goal out of that. 15:7 Ducks.
Then came the Hawkeyes and scored a field goal, stopped the Ducks and scored a TD on top, with a failed 2-pointer, so only 16:15 for Iowa.
With less than 2 minutes to play did then Oregon march over the field, went to the 21-yard-line of Iowa and kicked a game winning field goal with 3 ticks left to play.
Iowas desperate try to make a kickoff-return did fail.
That means for Oregon to stay right behind Indiana and Ohio State with 1-loss (together with Michigan and USC), waiting for a booboo by either of the teams.
Iowa on the other hand got their 2nd loss inside the BIG10 and is very likely out of completion for the championship game and also very likely out of the playoffs, thanks to their loss to rival Iowa State earlier.
#9 Oregon 18 @ #20 Iowa 16 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 20-7

And some other interesting games:

Fri. Nov 7
Tulane @ Memphis
Tulane came well prepared and got the lead early and did build on that over time. They did lead at the half 35:17 and it did not look like a change in momentum was up. After an all-defense 3rd quarter did then finally Memphis shift into 2nd gear and started scoring more often. They held the Tigers scoreless, but that INT on the 3rd drive in the last quarter did just cost them too much time until they had the ball back. The margin for errors was then at zero and on a 4th and 8 the team was stopped for good to lose against Tulane, 32:38.
The AAC looks like a mess right now, with 5 teams at 1 loss plus Memphis behind them with 2 losses. But 3 gamedays will shrink the field, at least a bit. But chances are high a tiebreaker is needed to determine the championship participants.
Jacks interesting games Score: 16-9

Sat. Nov 1
#2 Indiana @ Penn State
It did start quite good for Indiana, with them leading at the half 17:7. They did profit from a Lions fumble on the 2nd quarter and did play solid defense. The 3rd quarter did go so-so for the Hoosiers, since they did only get a field goal out of a Penn State INT, but they did also only allow a field goal for the Lions in that quarter.
Then came the 4th quarter and they made some errors. They allowed a TD, did throw and INT and allowed another TD afterwards. Suddenly the score was 24:20 Nittany Lions and the Hoosiers offense did sputter.
With less than 2 minutes left to play did Indiana get another drive and this time the ball was moving, with big gains. With roughly 30 ticks left to play did Indiana score, and Penn State tried their best to get into field goal range to eventually tie the game, but they were stopped at mid-field. So, Indiana won 27:24, the upset did fall apart and by that did Indiana stay hot inside the BIG10 and nationwide.
Penn State would need 3 wins in a row to get to a bowl. Not out of reach, based on the opponents.
Jacks interesting games Score: 17-9

James Madison @ Marshall
JMU was quite dominant throughout the game and did Marshall never back into the game to start a serious comeback try. The final score was 35:23 Dukes and leave them still on top of their division, while Marshall can forget to have any chance on the division crown this season and should concentrate on winning 2 more games out of 3 to get at least to a bowl.
Jacks interesting games Score: 18-9

That’s it for gameday 11.

A small note on the fired HC of LSU, Brian Kelly, on whom it was reported to have accept a smaller buyout on the 53 million dollars the school owns him. Turns out, he did not accept any offer. He still wants the full amount, since the offers were not ok for him. And on top did the school seek to change the termination in a ‘with cause’ case, which would mean, the school doesn’t own him anything. The school argues that the now fired AD had not the authority to fire Kelly and since Kelly did not show up for work afterwards, Kelly was fired with cause. Kelly does of course counter than. I’m quite sure the court will shred that argumentation of LSU in pieces, but most likely this will end with some sort of settlement, since nobody wants to have such stuff for a long period in the media and in court.

Let's go to the conference standings after week 11.

Please note, that the rankings are for the 1st CFP-ranking, which was published on Tuesday.

American Athletic Conference
Leading teams with 1-loss each inside the conference are Navy, #24 South Florida, Tulane, North Texas and East Carolina. It’s quite realistic to foresee the 2 championship game teams will be out of that list.
And behind is only Memphis with 2 losses.
It’s very plausible, that the seats will be determined by a tiebreaker between 3 or more teams.

Atlantic Coast Conference
With Virginia losing, the ACC did also get wide open with #16 Georgia Tech, #19 Virginia, #22 Pittsburgh, SMU and Duke all with 1-loss each. Behind them with 2 losses are #20 Louisville and #15 Miami.
Also, here the chances are high, that the 2 seats for the championship game will be determined by tiebreaker rules between 3 or more teams.

BIG10 Conference
#2 Indiana and #1 Ohio State remained unbeaten on top of the conference and have a quite easy remaining schedule. With 1-loss behind are #17 USC, #8 Oregon and #18 Michigan. OSU has to play Michigan as rivalry game on season final as only troubling game, while Indiana has only losing teams left to play.

BIG-12 Conference
Another conference fell to the 1-loss-teams are in the lead, when BYU lost heavily to TTU. Now #6 Texas Tech, #12 BYU and #25 Cincinnati are in the lead, with Houston, #13 Utah and Arizona State behind with 2 losses.
TTU has a quite easy remaining schedule and likely the winner between Cincinnati and BYU will be the other team to play for the title, but overall, 2 to 3 games left to play and every team can stumble.

Conference USA
Kennesaw State and Jacksonville State remain to dominate the CUSA unbeaten. With 1 loss behind are Western Kentucky and Missouri State. But MSU is ineligible for post-season activities, thanks to their FCS-to-FBS-transition.
The leading teams will play each other the upcoming weekend and that gives WKY a chance to get into the final. WKY has also Jacksonville on the schedule left, so here is still potential for a big makeover.

Mid-American Conference
Miami (OH) lost to Ohio and by that did the MAC have a 4 teams leading group with 1 loss each, Ohio, Miami, Buffalo and Western Michigan.
With 2 losses are behind Central Michigan, Toledo and Ball State.
The schedules of those 7 teams are heavily interlinked, so a lot is still possible. On paper does Western Michigan the easiest, while Buffalo looks the toughest regarded remaining games.

Mountain West Conference
This conference looks odd.
San Diego State and Boise State have 1 loss each and are the only teams with that (which is strange, since in several other conferences there are like 30% in that group) and it has a big bunch of 2-loss teams behind them, with Hawai’I, New Mexico, UNLV, Fresno State and Utah State.
Before Boise and San Diego did lose to strangely, I would have said, both would drive this to the championship game, but now, almost everything is possible.

Southeastern Conference
No big changes here. #3 Texas A&M and #4 Alabama are flawless.
Right behind them are the hopeful teams with 1-loss each, #5 Georgia, #7 Ole Miss and #10 Texas. No change at all.

Sun Belt Conference
The East is still James Madison territory as perfect team. Behind is left Coastal Carolina with 1 loss, playing the Dukes on season finale.
In the West is Southern Miss still perfect and leading the division. Troy is the lone 1-loss-team here left and those 2 teams do also play on season finale!

Bowl eligible teams
8 more teams did qualify, making it 59 teams so far.

Week 6: Memphis,
Week 7: Georgia Tech, Navy, Indiana, Ohio State, BYU, Texas Tech, UNLV, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Week 8: Virginia, North Texas, South Florida, Tulane, Oregon, Cincinnati, Houston, Hawai’i, Alabama, Georgia, Missouri, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, James Madison
Week 9: Louisville, Miami (FL), Virginia, Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, Washington, TCU, Utah, Western Kentucky, Boise State, San Diego State, Tennessee, Texas, Southern Miss, Troy
Week 10: SMU, Arizona State, USC, Minnesota, Illinois, Kennesaw State, Notre Dame, UConn, Fresno State, New Mexico, Old Dominion
Week 11: East Carolina, Wake Forest, Cal, Arizona, Iowa State, Jacksonville State, Ohio, Coastal Carolina.

That’s that for the overview.

As said, 2 to 3 games are left in the schedules for each team.
That makes more or less every game coming now a finale, at least for the contenders. Some are likely easy, when you play as heavy favorite, but as seen over the whole season, being named favorite, even by large numbers, and winning the game, can be something different.

The BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 12

Sat. Nov 15
#11 Oklahoma @ #4 Alabama
On paper, this is clear, Alabama is higher ranked, unbeaten, plays at home.
That does Vegas acknowledge and gives the Tide the favorite role, by 6.5 points, which is not that much, if Oklahoma is the weaker team and plays on the field of one of the top teams inside the SEC.
I don’t get the betting line, I did expect a higher one.
Sure. Alabama was not that convincing compared to the best seasons of Sabans era, but they did win all games, including tough ones, since that initial loss to FSU on day 1.
Oklahoma lost to Ole Miss and Texas, and not by less than a score.
So, can Oklahoma upset Alabama?
Right now, with the games playing out as they do, I can see that happen, sure.
But for me, maybe in 30 of 100 games. Now I can’t pick that way, just one team or the other.
Alabamas offense will be the key, if they click, the team is unbeatable. But if Oklahoma can disrupt them, it will be a funny game.
Crimson Tide win.

#9 Notre Dame @ #22 Pittsburgh
This could be a tough game for the Irish, because played in Pittsburgh against a rival, even the games do only happen every few years, on national television, will be a tough test.
The Irish lost twice this season, against Miami and Texas A&M, but won since then all games. That includes the USC rivalry game, played in South Bend. Now they face another ranked team, but on the road.
Pitt is 7-2 and lost to Louisville and West Virginia so far. Likely was the Louisville game, at home, the toughest one so far.
On paper, Notre Dame is better, and Vegas has the same impression, making them a 12.5-point favorite on the road.
They won also the last 5 rivalry games, the last win of Pitt was 2013, at home.
Do I believe in a Pitt win? No.
Would I be surprised by a Pitt win? No.
I think we will see a close game and likely also a low scoring one.
In such games, any error can turn the tide.
Fighting Irish win.

#10 Texas @ #5 Georgia
Looking into the SEC right now, the winner can dream on getting eventually a spot in the SEC championship game, the loser is out of that competition. And the loser will also sink in the national standing eventually too deep to get a playoff spot.
But to be clear, the logic in the playoff standing is not based on win or losses, it also does count in to whom a team lost and THIS here will be a hero loss, even it is a loss anyway.
Means, the sinking might not be too severe and compared to a different team with similar record the loser here will swim on top.
We have here 2 teams struggling against the expectations, set by the fan base and the programs itself.
Texas was supposed to be the dominating force inside the SEC and national wide and Georgia is still Georgia under that HC, who game the team not 1 but 2 National Championships.
But Texas lost twice so far, Georgia once. Not bad, right? But too bad compared to the expectations.
Georgia is favored by 5.5 points and I’m willing to follow that.
Texas can beat them, if their offense clicks, but it did not in many scenarios so far, so no sure thing in that.
And Georgia seems to adjust to the opponent, and we might see them shutting them down, or not.
Played in Athens, I pick the home team.
Bulldogs win.

And some other interesting games:

Sat. Nov 15
#21 Iowa @ #17 USC
Almost similar situation like Texas-Georgia, but with the difference, that both teams were not supposed to be THAT dominant and the losing team here will be out of any competition, except a regular bowl. The loser will sink deep in the ranks or will even drop out, national wide, and inside the BIG10, both teams are already on praying mode anyway, even USC would have a better shot than Iowa.
Played in California, this is a big advantage for USC.
They are only favored by 6.5 points, likely, because Iowa did play so far very good and USC will have to overcome one of the best defenses in the conference, if not national wide.
But USC has as HC one of the best offense minds as HC, so expectations are, they will solve that puzzle, especially at home.
My pick ...
Trojans win.

Sat. Nov 1
Boise State @ San Diego State
This game will open up the Mountain West wide again, regardless of who wins.
Both have 1 loss so far inside the conference and reign on spot 1 and 2 of the conference.
The loser will drop to 2 losses, in which after that gameday max 4 more teams will sit to fight for that 2nd spot in the championship game.
SDSU is favored at home by 2.5 points, which means, nobody is sure, who is the stronger team here.
I’m also confused, based on the results of the past few weeks, where Boise lost to Fresno State at home and San Diego lost to Hawai’i big time, even that was on the road.
I doubt for the home team.
Aztecs win.

Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville State
And a quite similar situation inside the CUSA as of the Mountain West, only that here the teams are unbeaten inside the conference and the field of 1-loss-teams is only 2 teams strong, of which 1 team is ineligible to play in the championship game.
So, much more relaxed situation.
Still a win would mean very sure to get into that championship game, while a loss does jeopardize the spot.
Kennesaw State is favored by 3.5 points, I’m willing to admit, I don’t know if that is fair or not.
Both teams did play great but lost also non-conference games.
I see here Jacksonville State, based on the results a bit weaker, but they play at home, which should not be underestimated.
Hmmm. Get me the coin.
Visiting Owls or homefield gamecocks?
Gamecocks win. (arg, I’m not sure)

'Til next time
Jack6 on BLOCK OF GRANITE

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