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| Main / Dragons / Season 53 Thread Search Forum | |
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| Poster | Message |
| posted: 2023-10-09 21:39:07 (ID: 100177397) Report Abuse | |
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sfniner08 wrote:
After looking closer I have to deduce that SOS plays a fairly significant factor in the scores. I say that because the Packers have 0 losses to my 1 and there are only 2 columns that I was ranked higher than. In fact the Packers are #1 on offense and #1 on defense. They are only ranked low on SOS with the 30th easiest schedule compared to my 19th. His opponent win rate is 39% to my 49%. Right now the SOS has a weight of 9% in this Power Ranking Score. This may be too much or too little. Who knows! But I believe that in this league and in this season the divisions are very unbalanced (it has happened this way) and it is not the same to play the divisional games in the AC South, the AC North or the NC West. Therefore, the SOS has to be an important factor in the final result. |
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| posted: 2023-10-10 02:48:55 (ID: 100177404) Report Abuse | |
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The quality of your opponents directly influences EVERY other stat.
SOS should actually probably have a little more influence on your ranking system. |
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| posted: 2023-10-11 21:08:49 (ID: 100177454) Report Abuse | |
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Power Ranking - Dragons 1 - Season 53 - Week 14
- Sfniner08 are in the Top of this Power Ranking for the third week (second week in a row). - Top 3: Jäger rise to #3. Green Mark Packers fall to #5. - Top 10: Same teams as week 13. All won except Olivos Borrachos (#6). - Biggest rise: 3 positions for Jäger (from #5 to #2). - Biggest drop: 2 positions for Green Mark Packers (from #3 to #5), Ipso Facto (from #17 to #19) and Nuthuggers (from #22 to #24). - There are already 4 teams with the playoffs clinched: Green Mark Packers, Sfniner08, Gardians and The Pinellas Pikes. - We are still with no Bots in this league. Dakota Bison left us but we have a new team: Chicago Bears. Welcome, Bears! 
Good luck and enjoy. |
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| posted: 2023-10-11 21:36:29 (ID: 100177455) Report Abuse | |
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punch drunk wrote:
The quality of your opponents directly influences EVERY other stat. Totally agree with this 
punch drunk wrote:
SOS should actually probably have a little more influence on your ranking system. With the weight that SOS has right now in this Power Ranking, The Pinellas Pikes are at #9 with a record of 11-2 and Olivos Borrachos at #6 with 9-4. And Green Mark Packers at #5 with the best record in the league 
This doesn't seem very accurate and would be even less if the SOS had more weight in the score. I would like to make a Power Ranking that predicts the next week's results. Yes, I know, that's impossible. But that's not why I'm not going to stop doing it. I enjoy it. Maybe I'm just a little freaky 
I have the stats for all the games in the league. And I have the following table:  Source: https://i.imgur.com/9fOnMwl.png In it we have: - First column, name of the stat. - Second column: number of games in which a team has beaten its opponent in that statistic (sometimes there is a tie). - Third column: number of games in which the team with the better statistic has won the game. - Fourth column: percentage of wins with that statistic won. All these statistics are given during the game. All except: ELO, Ratios and Power Ranking Score. These we know before the game. A forecast could be made based on these stats. As we can see, it seems that the most important thing to ensure a win is that your team gets more rushing yards than the opponent. That way you will get a win in %85 of the games. What do you think of all this? Crazy, isn't it?  |
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| posted: 2023-10-11 22:00:10 (ID: 100177456) Edits found: 1 Report Abuse | |
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Nice work.
Yeah I can surely see where win loss % should compare to the ranking BUT in like green mark's case he really has only played 4 competitively functioning teams and well I sure wish I had his schedule. Even though he has best record it does not really reflect his teams power ranking. IMO. Although I spose I'm a bit biased. lol You are prob about as close to the correct weightings that one could be. Last edited on 2023-10-11 22:12:36 by punch drunk |
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| posted: 2023-10-12 07:44:53 (ID: 100177460) Report Abuse | |
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punch drunk wrote:
Yeah I can surely see where win loss % should compare to the ranking BUT in like green mark's case he really has only played 4 competitively functioning teams and well I sure wish I had his schedule. Even though he has best record it does not really reflect his teams power ranking. IMO. What have the Green Mark Packers ever done to you to make you treat them this way? 
punch drunk wrote:
Although I spose I'm a bit biased. lol. Is there anyone in the room who is not?
I have a new project for season 54: I want to make a Dragons Pigskin Pick'em. Each week I will create a form for whoever wants to participate to indicate the winner of each game. Some entries to the form will be the results according to the ELO, Power Ranking Score and Overall Ratio of each team. I challenge you all to win in the Pigskin Pick'em to my Power Ranking! 
Let's see if I can find the time to make it. |
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| posted: 2023-10-12 10:33:46 (ID: 100177467) Report Abuse | |
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First off: Thank you, popopotamo, for your inspring work. I do enjoy diving a bit deeper, too, but by far not as deep as you do. And this list is an impressive one
popopotamo wrote:
As we can see, it seems that the most important thing to ensure a win is that your team gets more rushing yards than the opponent. That way you will get a win in %85 of the games. Funny thing is: I heard once there's a stat in the NFL that you push your winning chances to 75 % if one rusher on your team reaches 100 yards on the ground. And it's still not bad if you have over 100 Rushing Yards combined. Since I heard this it's one of the first things I check in a game if this holds true here in RZA also and very seldom had games where the team with more than 100 Yards Rushing lost. I also wrote about this – "you're more likely to win a game with over 100 Rushing Yards than lose it" – over in the Bootcamp-Thread, without really knowing if it's true. Nice to see that I at least had the right tendency to "preach" such a thing  |
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| posted: 2023-10-13 09:56:05 (ID: 100177492) Edits found: 1 Report Abuse | |
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Be careful with the interpretation of this rushing yardage stat, at least on RZA.
There are teams that, if they are winning, dedicate themselves to the 4th down to run all the time or in the last 8/6/5 minutes. They do it to avoid being intercepted. And this can be misinterpreted. Winning teams put up +100 rushing yards, but they do so because they are winning precisely. They don't win because they drive 100 yards... It's very different. Last edited on 2023-10-13 09:57:35 by Quimriera |
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| posted: 2023-10-13 11:21:02 (ID: 100177496) Report Abuse | |
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Quimriera wrote:
Be careful with the interpretation of this rushing yardage stat, at least on RZA. There are teams that, if they are winning, dedicate themselves to the 4th down to run all the time or in the last 8/6/5 minutes. They do it to avoid being intercepted. And this can be misinterpreted. Winning teams put up +100 rushing yards, but they do so because they are winning precisely. They don't win because they drive 100 yards... It's very different. Obviously, it's more "I rush more when I win" than "I win more when I rush".  |
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| posted: 2023-10-16 17:06:02 (ID: 100177558) Report Abuse | |
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Power Ranking - Dragons 1 - Season 53 - Week 15
- The end of Season 53 is coming and seems that this Power Ranking is stabilizing: half of the teams (16) repeat their positions compared to Week 14. And none of them varies more than 2 positions up/down. - Top 3: same teams in same positions. Sfniner08 repeat at #1. - Top 10: same teams. Only Baltic Stars (#5) and Gardians (#9) lost their games. - Nine teams clinched playoffs: five in the NC (only remains to decide the winner of NC South but Gilets Jaunés have it done) and four in the AC (remains the winner of the AC South. Here Olivos Borrachos should have no problems. And the second Wild Card, which will go to Budapest Janitors unless there is a surprise). - There has been no MOTY this week but there has been a game played in Relaxed mode (something that did not seem very sportsmanlike to me  ).
Good luck and enjoy. |
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