bwadders76 wrote:


Ok lets put another scenario in there to think about.

You win this vote and PA is the new tie breaker.

You, Wiesengrund (please excuse my spelling if its incorrect) and myself end up in the same SC group with three new teams and ten bots. As I have been at loggerheads with the pair of you since this vote opened you both discuss using MOTY on me and derive a playbook where you run on 1st, 2nd and 3rd downs also adding in any down <35 you go for the FG. The game ends up 3-0 to you. I only have one MOTY and use it against you winning 38-35 in a bit of a shootout. Wiesengrund uses MOTY on me and wins the same as this season 34-21. With all the other games factored in we end up a total of 1 TD apart. That would mean that I would be eliminated because you guys have in effect cheated. Had it remained at PD then that effect is lessened as I would have 13 games to make up the 14 point deficit on Wiesengrund but I would never be able to make up 45 PA. I am not calling you a cheat here but PA does open that window of opportunity as you have more control over things due to the fewer opportunities to concede points.

A similar situation can be organised in the league also especially in a tight division.

bv515109 wrote:
This is about as cherrypicked information as there is. First of all, it is all the D1.1 competitions, which is almost exclusively vs human opponents and therefore not the main issue of my exasperation. It also has nothing to do with tiebreakers. Further, there's a lot more behind this.

Admirals 1.1 - Free Agent Mascots had the best overall offense by far (rushing #1 and passing #5), not too mention passing offenses numbers 3-6 all made the playoffs, and while rushing offenses 1-3 did, 1 and 2 had top ten passing games as well. Against human opponents, balance will win out. None of that will change under the new system. Note there is only one tiebreaker used, and the same team would get it regardless.

Claymore 1.1 - Again, balanced teams win out against HUMAN competition, with Stone Mtn Hawks dominating in def, passing, and top ten in rushing. Note tiebreaking is only used for seeding (AC wildcard teams have same record), and the same team would have the tiebreak regardless

Dragons 1.1 - Here is where I get to play the "what if game." SF49ers and Mystic Warriors are similar yet different, as you pointed out. The difference is that 9ers defense is quite better, probably why they won an extra game. However, if Mystic hadn't lost their season opener by a single point (very possible), they would win the tiebreak, despite being swept by 9ers. This is solely because they got to hang 118 points on a team that 9ers didn't to pull ahead by 30. How is that okay? Beyond that, all other tiebreaks would be the same except for Steely Phils and FAJNY TIMs seeding would switch. They are hard for me to compare, but seem relatively even and like a "gut call" on who's better anyway.

Fire 1.1 - Again, balance is key in this league, as Magpies and Urschult demonstrate. As for tiebreaks, switching from PD to PA would change nothing.

Galaxy 1.1 - This league has the situation I described with Dragons. Bretzfeld Bandits is a passing team, Cameroon Turtles is a rushing team with comparable offense and a BETTER defense. Yet Bandits get the one seed (barely, by 40 points) because they scored 245 points against a team!!!! Even with a more common 120 point win, they would be more than 100 points behind in PD. The fact that they can use a game like that to take the top seed? Ridiculous! Nothing else in this league would change.

Monarchs 1.1 - There's nothing new to say. Balance will help you beat people. No tiebreakers would change.

SeaDevils 1.1 - This is interesting. A three-way tie for first in the AC, with the teams playing eachother in the season, each going 1-1. Overall, Solihul Moors got screwed any way you slice it. Gamblers got +274 PD from 2 games (EDIT: disregard this; the team they crushed twice was human owned!), and Warriors got +314 PD from 3 games. Solihul got none. I am not familiar enough to debate which team is better, or who should have won. Regardless, with PA, at least the Moors can control their own fate and not be last by default of not playing bots.

Thunder 1.1 - The tiebreak change would effect the seeding between Turigtians and Vienna. Of note is that Vienna got roughly 250 extra points of bot bashing, which is coincidentally the difference between the PDs. Noticing a pattern? Also, Steelers would miss the playoffs and China Chimp would make them. This is another hard call. However, it gets closer once you realize that Steelers got an extra 60 PD by beating a bot 175-0 over 113-0. Still, its close with Steelers winning by 20 PD, but Chimp winning by 4 PA, and splitting H2H. I'll let someone else decide who is better. Worth noting though, is that Steelers higher ranked D still allowed more points than Chimps, disproving all notions of "defense is all that will matter."



That was a lot of typing, but I now feel even more confident that switching from PD to PA wouldn't shift the balance of power in human leagues, and balance would still reign there. Also, it would eliminate nearly every issue raised from bot play, save for the fact that they still exist in the first place. Notice how the almost every tiebreak that changes was due in some form to unfair bot schedules (only fagny in dragons and arguably chimps in thunder don't), and those are really close calls in any format.

wiesengrund wrote:



This is a fantastic analysis, thanks a lot!