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The craziness factor did go into overdrive this weekend, when several high-profile programs suffer defeats against so far underperforming programs.
Let’s start with the game between Penn State at UCLA.
Penn State got beaten the week before at home by Oregon by just 6 points. That did result in a small drop in the rankings, like ‘sure they lost, but they were quite close and since they both were top teams, Penn State has to be in the top’.
Now they had to travel to Los Angeles (to Pasadena to be correct) and face a team, which fell to 0-4 prior the game, which is under interims coaching and which did not look like any threat at all for a top team like Penn State. Betting line, Penn State favored by 24.5 points!
Fine, everyone thought Penn State would come into town, beat the shit out of the Bruins and go home, but UCLA did score first, did make a successful onside kick after that and scored again, having the Lions already stunned twice before Penn State even had the ball. Then came an absolute disaster quarter for Penn State and the Lions trailed suddenly 7:27 at the half.
Fine, Franklin did likely gave nice speech in the locker room, but that did not help much, since Penn State fumbled their first possession of the 3rd quarter away and the only good thing was a blocked punt returned for a TD, which did in total gave the Lions the quarter at 14:7, but overall the team was still down 21:34.
Then it did look like Penn State would turn the table and would escape here with 2 back eyes, but nope, UCLA did answer when needed and at the end did UCLA win their 1st game of the season against a high ranked Penn State team, 42:37.
The consequence was, Penn State did drop from #7 out of the top 25 with enough points to be at #28, if there would be such a spot.
BAM!
Another crazy game? Sure.
How about Texas ranked at #9 against a bad Florida team?
Texas had only lost to Ohio State at season opener so far and was therefore highly ranked. Same thing as with Penn State.
They went to Florida, which did so far suck big time, lost against South Florida, LSU and Miami, 3 times in a row. The coach likely already asking for some isolation material to stay on his seat.
Well, turned out, that came from Texas.
Here Florida was only a 4.5-point underdog, but seriously, with a Manning at the helm against a Gator team in decline? What could go wrong?
Hmmm. A lot, as it seems.
Gators were up 19:7 at the half and Texas had more or less no offense.
Florida did even win the 3rd quarter 10:7 and then slowly did Texas wake up and tried to win the game, but that was too late.
The did throw INTs and were lucky Florida did not score further, but with that kind of performance, too few points are scored, so Florida won at the end 29:21.
Texas did also drop out of the top 25 to a virtual #27 and Florida might be on a healing path, we will see.
Other crazy games?
- Ball State did win against Ohio, 20:14. The 1st FBS win for Ball State this season, upsetting a 2-score favorite at home. Not bad.
- Wake Forest won against Virginia Tech on the road, 30:23. Sure VT is only on interims reign, still they were the favorite and got decked.
- Washington did beat Maryland on the road, 24:20. First loss for Maryland this season.
- Appalachian State did win against Oregon State, 27:23. I have the feeling, the Beavers will get a new HC, soon, since the team is 0-6 and even if the coach is only in his 2nd season, going from 5-7 to 0-6 is not the kind of progress the program seeks, I guess.
- Akron won against Western Michigan, 28:22. Also for the Zips the first FBS win of the season.
- Duke did beat Cal, on the road, 45:21. So far Cal did look like a winning team this season and now Duke did just steamroll them to stay perfect inside the ACC. Crazy.
That weekend did ruin my ESPN pick sheet, but fine, that way the season says interesting.
Let’s look at the games I did pick as preview last week and review them.
The BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 6
Sat. Oct 4
#14 Iowa State @ Cincinnati
I did lean on Iowa State defense and that unit did let everyone down in the 1st quarter to allow 17 unanswered points.
The Cyclones then did recover a bit but missed a field goal mid quarter to add some greave to their misery and when the teams did split for the half that quarter was 15:14 for the Cyclones and the game was still Cincinnati leading 31:15.
The 3rd quarter was almost all defense and Iowa State was only able to get close by 1 score.
So, the 4th quarter was the thing then. And here did Iowa States offense suck big enough to NOT get closer and when finally Cincinnati was able to score another TD it was clear that Iowa State would lose that game.
At the end it was only a 1 score loss, but still a loss.
A big setback for the Cyclones, who did look until this game like a sure thing for a great season, but now they are 1 loss behind of 4 teams inside the BIG12, including Cincinnati.
#14 Iowa State 30 @ Cincinnati 38 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 7-3
#16 Vanderbilt @ #10 Alabama
By far not the sure win Alabama did likely hope for.
The 1st quarter was dominated by errors, mostly Tide errors.
Vandy did lead 7:0 after that quarter and even when Alabama did tie the game, Vandy was able to get ahead again. Only before the break did Alabama tie the game at 14 again and the teams did split.
I’m sure the Bama fans were not really happy, since this was at home and against Vandy.
Then, finally, did Alabama pull away and won the game by a stronger defense which did no longer allow any scoring.
The team did beat the betting line, but likely the fans were still not that happy with that performance against damn Vandy.
At the end, I think for the Alabama coaches it was just that win they had to make, and they had upcoming Missouri as much tougher game already in their head.
Vanderbilt will try to spoil more teams season, not sure they can be better than last year, or not.
#16 Vanderbilt 14 @ #10 Alabama 30 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 8-3
#3 Miami @ #18 Florida State
The State champ is Miami, winning against FSU 28:22.
Unfortune for the Seminoles fans did their team only came to play in the last quarter, where they did score 19 of the 22 points and where their defense did not allow a single score.
But at that point the team was already behind by 25 points.
In total Miami did stay on course and is aiming for the ACC and beyond, while FSU did show some fighting spirit, but not enough to play a big role inside the ACC as they would like to play as Florida State.
#3 Miami 28 @ #18 Florida State 22 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 9-3
And some other interesting games:
Sat. Oct 4
#24 Virginia @ Louisville
After a tied game at the break did first Virginia turn the game to their side, then did Louisville tie it up in the 4th quarter, only to lose the game in OT 27:30.
The Cardinals had opened the OT with a field goal and Virgina just punched in a TD to win.
Now Virginia looks quite hot inside the ACC, while Louisville needs to be lucky to get another shot into the title game.
Jacks interesting games Score: 6-4
#11 Texas Tech @ Houston
Well, Houston never stood a chance in this game, was basically always behind and never in a position to tie the game or better.
At the end a clear 35:11 win by the Red Raiders to keep the hunt for a championship game spot alive.
Jacks interesting games Score: 7-4
UNLV @ Wyoming
Even UNLV started with a fumble drive, they had a strong 1st quarter to lead by 2 scores and then defend that lead in a quite defense driven game to win 31:17.
UNLV looks strong this season, while Wyoming might have to settle for a mid-field position in the standings.
Jacks interesting games Score: 8-4
That wraps up the last gameday and we can look to the next one.
Here we will see some interesting games between teams, who are likely top contenders and teams who are eventually top contenders.
The conferences standings are quite fresh and not really aligned so far, since the real conference matchups did start only a few gamedays ago and the scheduling does not always give every team a top contender in that period. Sometimes teams are lucky, and they have in a season only one or two of those at all on their schedule, which either means, happy regular season and then comes the hangover on an eventual championship game and/or bowl, or the teams are top contenders themselves and the field is not as dense as some might wish for.
I will give a conference overview starting November, prior that it doesn’t make sense.
Also, there is no sense preaching the top 25 list or some other sort of list down, every week, since the real sorting will start later, and the REAL list is the committee list for the playoffs.
So, let’s have a look on the games of the upcoming weekend.
The BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 7
Sat. Oct 11
#1 Ohio State @ #17 Illinois
Only really a top game, because it is for Ohio State on the road.
Last year was for Ohio State almost perfect, since they won the National Championship. It was only ALMOST perfect, since the team did not win the conference and THE GAME. The Buckeyes did lose against Oregon, the later conference champ, mid-season and later the team did lose also against Michigan in THE GAME, one of the, if not THE, most anticipated rivalry games, every season.
Ryan Day is the HC of the Buckeyes since 2019 and he has won that rivalry game only in his 1st year, then came covid and then came Michigans dominance.
Well, last year did they lose again, despite Michigan being not a top contender and therefore the team did miss the Championship game, but went into the playoffs as one of the top 12 teams named by the committee and they made the best out of it and won against all odds.
This season the team is perfect, did win close games against Texas at season start and against Washington on the road.
Now they face an Illinois team, which is hard to judge.
They lost big against Indiana, but did also best Duke, which does right now turn the ACC upside down, and won against USC, a team with much deeper pockets and a tradition to win.
Bret Bielema has the team for sure on a winning path, again.
This game here it the toughest they have so far in the season, likely the toughest of the season.
Vegas does not give a lot for the Illini, making them a 14.5-point underdog.
I personally do also not think they will stand a chance, but Illinois at home is not take lightly since a few seasons and don’t forget the Penn State loss of last week. Those Lions fans and the coaches do still wonder, why they lost that Should-Have-Been-Won-Game.
I do not pick against Ohio State here; I just hope for a close game and an interesting outcome.
Buckeyes win.
#8 Alabama @ #14 Missouri
I didn’t want to s e l e c t Alabama again, but in such a game here, I cannot ignore them.
With the win last week against Vanderbilt the team is right now one of 5 unbeaten teams inside the SEC and one of the hottest, even the Vandy game was not really hot.
It’s more that Alabama WAS one of the team to beat until the last coach did step aside. Then last season, with the new coach Kalen DeBoer the team did take at least one step back, if not two, and IF he manages to do the same as he did at Washington, the team is up to make at least one step forward, if not two.
That would mean, that Alabama is again a top team and that means, they play for the SEC Championship and beyond.
BUT, Missouri is one of the teams, which might give Alabama a hint for reality.
Missouri is also perfect inside the SEC and on top overall.
Eliah Drinkwitz is in his 6th season and did build the team after 3 mediocre seasons into a winner with 11 wins in 2023 and 10 wins in 2024.
In both seasons they did lack the final punch to actually play for something worthy in the postseason and the numbers are only that high, because they won both bowls in that season.
In 2023, if at that point the playoff system would have been already the new one, they would have likely played at least 1st round, but it wasn’t that system then.
Last year they ended up barely in the top 25.
This season they did so far play only non-contenders, from my point of view, with South Carolina likely being the toughest team.
Now, Alabama, but at least at home.
I think the Vegas guys are also not really sure, what to make out of both teams and whether they are really the real deal inside the SEC, so the line is Alabama -2.5 as guest team.
Not much, but it sends a message. The message is, they prefer Alabama but are not sure why.
I think the key will be Alabamas defense, which is a unit, the quite capable Missouri offense have not met yet this season.
If that defense, which did allow max so far 21 points, if you except the season start against FSU, does control Missouris offense, then the game will be tough for them.
Because for sure will Alabama find ways to score and likely 20+ points easily. So my expectation is, if Missouri can exploit the Bama defense, then this is an open game. If not, I think Alabama will prevail.
I’m torn between the Tigers as underdog and the Tide as likely better suited and stuffed team.
Coin toss.
Tigers win.
#7 Indiana @ #3 Oregon
I did preview both teams already in previous entries, so I go directly into the game itself.
We have an Indiana team, which looks like an exception to their history, that one lighthouse in a lot of bad seasons.
They do face the reigning BIG10 champ, which does again click on all cylinders, and which is very likely to enter the BIG10 Championship game again.
But ... one of the teams have to give up here and will be a win behind in the Championship game seatings, and that might be too much this season.
Both are 5-0 overall and 2-0 inside the conference.
And there is Ohio State and Michigan also unbeaten inside the conference.
Chances are high, the winner of Ohio State and Michigan might take the 1st seat (likely OSU) and the winner here takes the 2nd.
Sure, every team can start sucking like Penn State did and if that happens with the 4 teams mentioned, the BIG10 will be a mess with a lot of tie breakers to calculate.
I only wanted to point to the fact, that those 4 teams do NOT meet against each other except the 2 games mentioned.
And this here is the 1st of those, with THE GAME is the last.
Playing at home. Oregon is favored to win here by 7.5 points.
That’s not that much, if you have Indiana vs Oregon on any year in mind.
This year, I don’t know.
Indiana did put A LOT of points on some opponent, but I doubt they can do that on Oregon.
Oregon did the same with many teams, but is Indianas defense as bad? I don’t know. They did not face such a team so far.
So, crucial matchup will be for sure, Indiana defense vs Oregon offense, because if that defense can stand up, this will be a fun game.
If not, I think Oregon will outscore them, likely more than the line suggest.
With that in mind and the home field waiting, I go with Nike ... ahhh ... Oregon.
Ducks win.
And some other interesting games:
Sat. Oct 11
#6 Oklahoma @ Texas
It’s a shame it came to that, but the Red River Rivalry became one of those ‘Oh, by the way, Sooners do play Longhorns also this weekend’ games.
Brent Venables is in his 4th year and the Sooners are seemingly heading into the right direction, 5-0 so far.
But they did not face a lot of good teams, in fact, none.
Steve Sarkisian is in his 5th season with Texas and this was supposed to be the championship season with that Manning QB winning everything there is and going to Mars and win a Noble Price and so on.
Expectations were HIGH in Texas after last seasons success and the team went 3-2 so far and lost to struggling Florida last week.
Now they face that hated rival.
What can go wrong, right?
Well, Vegas doesn’t know, and I think deep down everybody is expecting that none of the teams here will have a say inside the SEC this season and both will end up 2nd tier or worse.
So, the line is Sooners -1.5.
Not sure what my take is here, because I think Texas HAS the tools, they just fumble them around and are not DOING something with it.
I expect a high emotional game, nobody cares about, once it is over.
I think Texas is better than they did show and that they will try to make better after the Florida disaster, so ...
Longhorns win.
#18 BYU @ Arizona
If any teams did so far look like a favorite inside the BIG12, it’s BYU.
Kalani Sitake is in his 10th season with the team and has a very good record with the team, did miss last year the Championship game only by a tie breaker and won the bowl to finish 11-2.
This season so far 5-0. The team seems to be doing always enough to win, but they did not face one of the other likely contenders so far.
Arizona is under the watch of Brent Brennan in the 2nd season and last year was a bad one, but so far is the current one much better.
They have already as many wins this season as they had over the whole season last year.
They lost to Iowa State, which is for sure at least in the mix for a contention and do now host BYU.
Do I think Arizona is a contender? No.
Do I think this is a BYU win by default? No.
Arizona could be the team this year, nobody wants to play, because you might disregard them as a bump on the road and you crash into a wall.
Vegas has BYU up by 1.5 points, which is nothing, so there is also some mixed feelings about this.
I’m not sure, what to expect, a shootout of a defense standstill, but I lean towards a shootout.
In that I think the BYU defense will come up big more often than they fail.
Cougars win.
#21 Arizona State @ Utah
This feels like the pity-bowl.
Arizona State, reigning BIG12 champ, playoff team last year, did just seemingly crash, when they lost to Mississippi State on week 2. But the team did win all other games and is perfect inside the BIG12.
They MIGHT return to the championship game. But you might not trust in that confidence, because of that loss to the Bulldogs.
And Utah, they were supposed to come back after a bad season, because that is what their coach is doing since the ages of the dinosaurs.
But they seemingly crashed against Texas Tech 2 weeks ago and that did hurt also.
Here, one team will have to let go.
If Arizona State wins, all will say ‘yeah, they are contenders’ and Utah will be just in for another mediocre season at best.
The other way around, both teams might end up 2nd tier and will have no say for the championship game.
I personally still believe in Utah to be not bad, so I think they can win this.
Vegas is also confident and picks Utah as 5.5-point favorite.
Utes win.
'Til next time
Jack6 on BLOCK OF GRANITE
Tags: Block of Granite, News
2025-10-02 07:29
The conference games did start as majority of the matchups and the results were often stunning.
How stunning?
Well, there is one SEC HC position vacant after this weekend.
Ironically this came from a non-conference game, still a very important one, which outcome did show the program, that they have to move on from their setup so far.
I’m talking about Notre Dame visiting Arkansas, which turned out to be a quite one-sided game. Sure, you already guessed, that Arkansas did fail to do anything and lost 13:56 at home. Their HC so far was Sam Pittman, in his 6th season, and while his team did peak in year 2 of his reign, last seasons 7-6 was only accomplished by winning a bowl and the start of this season was 2-3, including now 3 losses in a row.
So, he got fired and his interims HC is not an unfamiliar face on Razorbacks campus, since he was already the HC of Arkansas from 2008 to 2011, with a constant increase on wins from 5 to 8, 10 and then 11 in his last year. That’s right, Bobby Petrino, this season so far, the OC of the team, is named interims coach. You might ask yourselves, why he did not coach further at Arkansas, when he had 11 wins in his last season? Well, there was a motorcycle crash with a female trainer of Arkansas, which did turn out to be his love affair at that time. Petrino was fired roughly 10 days later. Since he had several other jobs as HC and coordinator, but none was as successful than his time at Arkansas since.
I don’t think he will become the permanent HC after the season, but in this crazy business, you never know. He already did fire several assistants, so maybe he CAN change the Razorbacks to a better version of themselves during the season?
More crazy results?
- East Carolina did win against Army, 28:6 and Army is now 1-3 after winning the AAC last year.
- Virginia did beat Florida State, 46:38 on 2OT. The Virginia fans did storm the home field, and FSU did drop severely in the rankings, while Virginia did get into the ranks for the 1st time this season.
- BYU did sink Colorado, 24:21, which leaves Colorado at 2-3 right now. Looks like the big hype is over for the Buffs.
- Duke did whip Syracuse,38:3, on the road. The Orange won last week against Clemson on the road and now Duke! did upset them on the home field.
- Louisiana-Monroe won against Arkansas State, 28:16. ASU is 1-4 and that could mean, a coach change is coming soon.
- Cal won against BC on the road, 28:24. It looks like both teams will not have a big say inside the ACC, but they did at least settle their standings against each other.
- UConn did beat Buffalo, 20:17. UConn now 3-2 and the fans are wondering what’s going on.
- Hawai’i won against Air Force, 44:35 on the road. Air Force lost 3 in a row now.
- Kennesaw State did beat Middle Tennessee, 24:16. Not sure what the Blue Raiders are doing, but they should change it, fast, now being 1-4.
- Old Dominion won against Liberty, 21:7. Liberty is now 1-4 and in deep trouble. Right now, this looks like the worst season of that HC so far, which could mean, he will not see his 4th season.
- Virginia Tech did win against NC State, 23:21. The team won now 2 in a row with the interims HC, but granted last week was against a FCS team. This victory here is ace.
I like this, even that means the picking is getting tougher.
Let’s look at the games I did pick as preview last week and review them.
The BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 5
Sat. Sep 27
#4 LSU @ #13 Ole Miss
This went almost as expected.
The Rebels offense had more problems scoring than in the games so far and the LSU offense had even more problems.
The 1st quarter was still quite open, and LSU got in the lead, but with an INT starting the 2nd quarter, LSUs luck ran out and Ole Miss scored twice to get into the locker with a 17:7 lead.
A sloppy 3rd quarter by Ole Miss did give LSU all the chances they could get, but they had to settle for field goals and went trailing 13:17 into the last quarter.
And that was all offense and all-time management.
Ole Miss scored extending the lead and did eat some stuff of the clock.
LSU did answer on an even longer drive and left roughly 5 minutes to play.
They did a regular kickoff and tried to stop LSU, but they did just get 1st down after another even with a 4th down try and did run down the clock to zero, winning the game.
Tough loss for LSU, Big win for Ole Miss.
Maybe we will see both teams in the playoffs or even in the SEC Championship game, but I have doubts.
Right now, Ole Miss looks like a good bet for a spot in both events, LSU not.
#4 LSU 19 @ #13 Ole Miss 24 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 6-1
#6 Oregon @ #3 Penn State
A so call white-out game, meaning inside the stadium of Penn State with over 100K capacity all fans do wear white clothes to have a specific look.
The game was one of the top games of the BIG10 and might become a preview of the BIG10 championship game or at least a decide on the top seats.
So, high stakes and at the end it was a great game.
The game started all defense and went 3:3 into the half.
Then did Oregon score a TD on the 3rd and put by that pressure on the Lions at home.
Beginning of the 4th did Oregon score another TD and all did look like lost for Penn State.
But the team did come back, scored a TD on the next drive, stopped Oregon and scored again to tie the game.
Oregon had the ball last and was stopped, so the game went into OT.
Penn State got the ball first and scored a TD, Oregon did respond and scored also. So, 2nd OT.
Oregon needed just one play to score a TD and Penn State needed only one play also, but to lose the game with an INT.
Both teams did look sharpe and will likely get to the playoffs.
It will get down to Ohio States results and maybe some other team(s) to find the BIG10 Championship participants and I do guess it will come down to a tiebreaker.
#6 Oregon 30 @ #3 Penn State 24 (2OT) -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 7-1
#17 Alabama @ #5 Georgia
The real surprise this weekend, with Georgia facing Alabama and with the Bulldogs winning so good last week against Tennessee on the road, was that game here.
I mean, at home. Against a rival. What could go wrong?
Turned out, a lot.
The 1st quarter was almost all defense, but Alabama did score a TD and took the lead.
Then came the 2nd quarter all offense and every team did throw punches, with Georgia having a fumble on top to let Alabama win this quarter also to go in total into the locker rooms with Alabama leading by 10 points, 24:14.
The 3rd quarter was then almost all defense again, with Alabama missing a field goal and Georgia scoring a TD to start the comeback, right?
No, in the 4th quarter the teams did bring their best defenses, which was a nightmare for Georgia, which was stopped on 4th and 1 on the Bama 8 and later having to punt from mid-field with 3 minutes left to play.
Alabama did run down the clock and the Bulldogs got their 1st defeat of the season, at home, against that damn rival, who lost already against the Seminoles start of the season. Fair?
No, if you are Bulldogs fan. Live, for all others.
Tough loss for Georgia, losing that crucial game, no 1 game behind in the SEC standings.
Big win for Alabama, now dreaming of the SEC Championship and beyond.
I’m quite sure we will see both teams in the playoffs, but maybe I’m wrong.
#17 Alabama 24 @ #5 Georgia 21 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 7-2
And some other interesting games:
Sat. Sep 27
#21 USC @ #23 Illinois
I was wrong.
Illinois was absolutely able to score, and USC had to play catch-up most of the game.
They did finally get the lead with less than 2 minutes left to play and Illinois did march down the field and kicked a walk-off winning field goal from 41-yards for a 34:32 win. BAM!
Great win for Illinois, especially after last weeks disaster against Indiana. Bad loss for USC, since as one of the self-declared top programs of the country you need to win such games to play with the big boys.
We will see, whether USC can recover from that, but my guess is, not.
The BIG10 will be very tight this season and this loss is devasting.
Jacks interesting games Score: 5-2
#11 Indiana @ Iowa
Not sure, this was an entertaining game.
Quite defense driven and both teams had their chances.
At the half tied at 10 did the 3rd quarter feature only drives with punts at the end.
Then in the 4th did finally Iowa score a go-ahead field goal, only to have that tied at 13 a drive later by Indiana.
Then came the crazy part, with both teams sharing INTs, Iowa missing a field goal and finally Indiana getting a TD to get the lead.
Iowa tried everything, played out the 4th and 10 on mid-field with 16 ticks to play, but failed and Indiana did kneel down and allowed even a safety to happen to run down the clock for a 20:15 win.
I don’t know how good Indiana really is, but in 2 weeks they play Oregon and late in the season Penn State and then we will know.
Not sure they will make the playoffs with that schedule.
Iowa on the other side did already get 2 heavy blows, so likely they will be no part of the post-season conversation, except some bowl invite.
Jacks interesting games Score: 6-2
Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan
I make this short.
My hope in the Eagles was wrong, they did get a clear loss by CMU.
The final score was 24:13 Central Michigan and the Eagles are now 1-4, which is one of the worst starts of the current HC, while CMU is 3-2 and might have a good season ahead of them under their new HC.
Jacks interesting games Score: 6-3
That’s it for the last gameday.
Unfortune, it looks like the games of next week are not stacked with a lot of great games I’m longing for.
Still, several of those games could be important or even deciding for the conferences standings or even playoffs, since right now, we just don’t know, which teams will be THE hot teams.
Some websites do promote several teams right now with a good chance for the playoffs, but seriously, with just 1 or 2 losses this picture could turn upside down for almost every team in the TOP 25 to 50 teams!
Sure, a team like Eastern Michigan has now with 1-4 record no chance getting into the playoffs, or at least very very limited chance. It’s clear the top 12 teams, will likely have a margin of 1 to 3 losses during the season to make the playoffs, especially since the spots are not bound to conferences and conference standings.
So, let’s have a look on the games of the upcoming weekend.
The BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 6
Sat. Oct 4
#14 Iowa State @ Cincinnati
This one is on paper quite clear, I think.
Iowa State did win so far, all games and in Matt Campbells 10th season as HC, the team looks well build. The won against Kansas State (at that time preseason ranked), they won against one of the best FCS teams, they won against rival Iowa at home for the 1st time since ages (how odd THAT is), won against Arkansas State and they won against Arizona last week.
What can go wrong against Cincinnati, even on the road?
Well, number one, the team lost 2 starting CB due injuries.
Number 2, Cincinnati is also unbeaten and won 3 in a row, they lost only to Nebraska on season start. Scott Satterfield is their HC and in his 3rd season, and the teams win total did go up so far from 3 to 5 in the past 2 seasons and this year the team will likely get at least to a bowl.
Doesn’t sound too bad for Iowa State?
You are right, at least for me, but Vegas has the home team favored by 1.5 points, so there is not much confidence in Iowa State, or a lot of confidence in the Bearcats. I don’t know.
I think the Cyclones defense will be the key. They did great so far and did control all offenses they did face.
Down by 2 CBs, this might get a bit messier, but the real strength of Iowa State is that they play with blitzes.
If Cincinnati can’t handle that, they will fall. If they do and the incoming backups at Iowa State are not that efficient as the 2 injured guys, this could become the 1st loss of the Cyclones.
Campbell did so far always field a good defense, so I think they can compensate.
Cyclones win.
#16 Vanderbilt @ #10 Alabama
Last year, this game at Vanderbilt was THE thing for Alabama fans.
The Crimson Tide lost to the Commodores for the 1st time in 40 years!
That was eventually a coincidence with Alabama in a transition phase with a new HC and Vanderbilt having one of the strongest teams in the last 10+ years with overall 7 wins including a bowl win. The last time a coach won 7 or more was when James Franklin did win 9 in consecutive seasons, which did earn him right away the job at Penn State. Prior to that there was a season at 2008 and then 1982! In fact, Vanderbilt has a history record of 0.485.
What is so disturbing for the Bama fans was, a) the series of 40 seasons winning against Vandy was interpretated as ‘forever’, b) the current HC Clark Lea did win until that season only 9 games in 3 seasons before, and the team had only 2 the season prior that named game. And c) ... it’s VANDY! No, c is, they did win almost every game in the past 10+ years and did expect to do further, even under a new HC.
Well, they did not.
So, Clark is in his 5th season now and so far they are ... drum roll ... 5-0!
Alabama is in the 2nd season of Kalen DeBoer and are 3-1. But of course, that is not the whole truth.
The whole truth is, Vanderbilt did so far play no quality team and even they might have lost such games often in history, this season they did not. But with Alabama, LSU, Texas and Tennessee on the schedule until season end, it’s hard to imagine, the team will stay unbeaten.
If so, they would be the best team for 100 years.
And Alabama did so far play FSU (lost), ULM (well ...), Wisconsin and last week Georgia and they won those past games.
Most impressive obviously the Georgia game on the road.
Crimson Tide is favored by Vegas by 10.5 points, I think they will likely beat that.
But never underestimate the Commodores with that current QB.
Crimson Tide win.
#3 Miami @ #18 Florida State
Oh man, FSU did look so good so far and then did the team lose to Virginia in OT. That was a major drop in national confidence on that team and it was also a loss which might hurt in conference standings.
So far, they are now 3-1 and the do only have a rank left, since they won against Alabama on season start.
Miami on the other hand is 4-0 with wins included against Notre Dame and Florida. If Miami wins this game here, they get the Florida Cup, which they also won last year. The Florida Cup is a non-regular Cup between FSU, Florida and Miami.
Do I have to say, what Vegas sees here? Sure.
Miami is favored by 4.5 points.
Not that much. Likely the Bama-game.
Because I think Miami is way better that FSU.
They had several tough situations and games already and they did best all of it, thanks to their defense and the QB.
FSU did fall last week against Virginia ...
I might troll the Seminoles a bit here and of course they have a chance, still I can’t imagine the Hurricanes falling victim to such a team.
Hurricanes win.
And some other interesting games:
Sat. Oct 4
#24 Virginia @ Louisville
Tony Elliott is in his 4th season and tries to get Virginia back on track. His results were so far not big, 3 wins in his first 2 seasons, 5 last year, but now the team is 4-1 and has taken down FSU at home last week.
They face Louisville, who is under the watch of Jeff Brohm, now in the 3rd season. He was quite successful at Purdue and was hired to have Louisville in the top ranks of the ACC or beyond. The success was so far OK, but went from 10 wins to 9 wins last year and this season the team is 4-0.
There is no doubt that the Cardinals are the favorite.
Vegas gives them a line of -6.5 at home, I personally think they will likely win with a higher margin.
The only x-factor in this is the Virginia offense. If they can expose the Cardinals defense as last week the Seminoles defense, this will get interesting. But honestly, I doubt that.
Granted, Louisville has not played really tough teams, but the team looks promising and Brohm should be able to get this done.
Cardinals win.
#11 Texas Tech @ Houston
TTUs win against Utah did put the team in top conversation within the BIG12. Houston on the other hand did win so far against disappointing Colorado and Oregon State, so not the best teams so far on the schedule.
Willie Fritz leads the Cougars in his 2nd year as HC and has already as many wins now (4-0) as last year in total.
For Vegas the favorite is clear with the Red Raiders favored by 10.5 points. But we did see many favorites fall with even higher betting line, so, nothing is given.
I like the Cougars so far, but I cannot ignore how bold they did win against Utah on the road.
And the team did also win against Oregon State in a much more convincing way.
Hence ...
Red Raiders win.
UNLV @ Wyoming
A top matchup in the Mountain West.
UNLV is 4-0 in Dan Mullens 1st season as HC, so maybe that was a homerun hire for the Rebels. They face Jay Sawvel 2nd year version of the Wyoming Cowboys and it looks better than last seasons version (3-9) at 2-2 already.
The team lost to 2 BIG12 teams, which is not unusual and has the chance to make a mark inside the MWC.
Vegas favors UNLV by only 3.5 points, which is likely because they have to play on the road and UNLV has also so far no signature win, except a win against a very bad UCLA team.
I like the progress Mullan has made with the team so far and I hope for a close game.
Rebels win.
'Til next time
Jack6 on BLOCK OF GRANITE
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