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jack6
Leverkusen Leopards

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Joined: 2011-09-05/S00
Posts: 7081
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posted: 2014-06-02 11:26:32 (ID: 100034236) Report Abuse
OK, I did promise a different approach regarding rankings and I did some research on the net regarding this.

In the global forum are some discussions running regarding a new ranking system (they suggested to use some elo system or some other systems similar to elo used for ranking big amounts of team/players).

I found some college football ranking systems explanations and tried to use some easy ones to get an easy method and an understandable one, too.

At the end I was not sure which to use so I fused some ideas I found in one system.

A very robust and easy method was found in the Colley-Matrix-Method.
It uses a quite elegant method to form a linear equation based on wins and losses and the team’s ratings and by solving that equation you get some nice result.
Unfortunately the method is copyright protected and I did find the simple dependency on wins and losses a bit one dimensional.

What I did like was the generation of the matrix so I decided to a l t e r the method by some other factors and give it a try.

Here is the base idea:

Colley did use a simple rating formula he did attribute to the mathematician Laplace.
So nothing new here. The formula says that for each team the rating is calculated with R = (1 + #win)/(2+#games).

So for each team i
R(i) = ( 1 + #win(i) ) / ( 2 + #games (i) )

It looks a bit odd for the beginning, but the main reason to ranks them that way is to avoid hard values as 1 and 0 can be.
For example, with that rating-formula a 1-win team has a rating of 2/3 and a 1-loss team has 1/3, instead of the common approach of having #win/#games where that such teams would have a rating of 1 or 0.
And a team with no games at all would be undefined in such ranking system, while in Laplace formula it has the value 1/2.

The next thing Colley did was to define a new value for the #win.
Instead of using #wins as you would use it, he decided to define it as

#wins(i) = (#won games - #lost games)/2 + sum of all ratings of played opponents.

Looks odd, but it puts the strength of schedule into the #wins(i) part.
If you play only cupcake games you might win all games but will also add only a few points from the ratings.
If you play tough opponents and lose, you might end up with a few negative points but will add also a lot of points thanks to the strength of the schedule.

if you but both formulas together you get the colley matrix which basically says:

For each team i

(2+#games) * R(i) - (sum of all ratings of opponents R(ij) ) = 1 + (#won games (i) - # lost games (i) ) / 2

with j = 1 to # games (i)

What I didn't like was the (#won games - #lost games)/2 term.
I does not reflect HOW games where won.
That's not Colley's error; his intention was to keep it THAT simple.

So I decided to a l t e r the formula.

Instead of having (#win games - #lost games) which could be written as a sum of game values (GV) with

GV = 1 if won, -1 if lost

I decided to recalculate GV to a different formula which has 4 parts.

1. Part: Win Bonus (WB)
A team which wins get X points, a team that loses gets -X points
Why that? Well, winning should still be awarded, right? But not ONLY winning.
So WB = X for the winner and WB = -X for the loser.
The value X will be explained a bit later.

2. Part: score difference (SD)
Base idea would be just to take score winner - score loser and that's that.
But there should be a blowout cap, no need to award big points for driving up the score board, or to beat BOTs big time.
To keep that in one formula I decided to use the tangens hyperbolicus, which gets results between -1 and 1.
By multiplying the result by Y we get a value the size we need it for the final formula of GV
SD = Y * tangh(score difference/blowout barrier)
with the score difference for each team always calculated as score team - score opponent
3. Part: score ratio (SR)
The score ratio is a bit different to the score difference.
By dividing the score difference through the score of the winner you get a nice indicator how well the defence and offense did play.
If the losing team did not score the winner gets here a perfect 1, of the winner did win high, but the loser did also score points, the ratio drops below 1.
A close game will basically add almost nothing as a result, if many points were scored on both sides or a lot if not many points where scored, but one team did not score anything.
By multiplying with Z we get a value the size we need it for the final formula of GV
SR = Z * score difference/score winner
with the score difference for each team always calculated as score team - score opponent

4. Part: adjusting X Y and Z
I started with the following base assumptions.
50% of the GV should by from WB, 25% from SD and 25% of SR.
-> X = 50, Y = 25 and Z = 25.

Now let’s put it all together.
Since I want each GV result between 1 and -1 I define
GV = (WB + SR + SD)/(X+Y+Z)

Now let's look at my adjustment of the colley matix again:
For each team i

(2+#games) * R(i) - (sum of all ratings of opponents R(ij) ) = 1 + (sum of GV(ij)) / 2

with j = 1 to # games (i)

This results (as also the original colley method) into a linear equation system

Ar=b

with a build Matrix A from
a(kl) = 2 + #games (k) for k=l, a(kl) = a (lk) = -#games k played against l

and the vector b build with
b(k) = 1 + (sum of GV(kj)) / 2 (with j = 1 to # games (i))

and k = 1 to #teams

vector r is the rating vector which can be calculated by r = A^-1b

To have a complete rating of all teams in RZA we would have to add the supercup games, all playoff games and the CoC games.
Tough work, if the schedule is not available in some kind of download format.

I did a calculation for the Monarchs 1.1. which will be final after the Bowl.

Any comments are welcome.
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dpierce
Paxtang Black Panthers

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Joined: 2011-12-25/S02
Posts: 616
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posted: 2014-06-02 19:28:56 (ID: 100034271) Report Abuse
Please ignore my crash-and-burn at the end of the season.
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kyle-rowdy-busch
posted: 2014-06-02 21:04:54 (ID: 100034286) Report Abuse
yeah, i been reading up on the main thread about all the different equations or formulas...Look at where my GN and Dragons and Shenko are..they are close within, but somehow Nogard is jumped way ahead...i must of misread if it figured SC or CoC....have to re-read, sounds complicating.
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ausonny
posted: 2014-06-02 21:53:42 (ID: 100034293) Report Abuse
kyle-rowdy-busch wrote:
yeah, i been reading up on the main thread about all the different equations or formulas...Look at where my GN and Dragons and Shenko are..they are close within, but somehow Nogard is jumped way ahead...i must of misread if it figured SC or CoC....have to re-read, sounds complicating.


To answer this question, my ratings include all league, supercup and champ of champs going back to season 7, which explains why Nogard is rated higher. One thing I will be interested to see in my own ratings is how much any one season changes the ratings.

Looking at this it seems interesting to me. We have to address the same issues and I'm curious how some of the things you are doing will play out. There are a lot of things to like about your approach. I'm looking forward to seeing the results.

Good luck, I've had a lot of fun doing this, and I'm sure you are as well.
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jack6
Leverkusen Leopards

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Posts: 7081
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posted: 2014-06-03 05:16:26 (ID: 100034311) Report Abuse
Of cause the ranking could span over several seasons, but that was not the main intention.

I think if I would rank the teams over several season, the results would get odd, since teams do rise and fall, fall bot and might even get reactivated.
To adjust to that the ranking has to get much more complicated.
I still have problems with even ranking level 1 and level 2 since the only connection would be the relegation games.

To have a better ranking I would need the would schedule.
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jack6
Leverkusen Leopards

Germany   jack6 owns a supporter account   jack6 is a Knight of RedZoneAction.org

Joined: 2011-09-05/S00
Posts: 7081
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posted: 2014-06-04 05:35:32 (ID: 100034408) Report Abuse
OK; here comes the Final Rating of 1.1 for Season 12, based only on the Monarchs schedule.

Ranking Team Rating Value
1 St. George's Dynamo Patriots 0,669
2 Black Dragons 0,6
3 Skyzo Shenkos 0,564
4 GatorNation 0,524
5 Down Under Devils 0,48
6 Gliwice Lions 0,349
7 Paxtang Black Panthers 0,325
8 Leverkusen Leopards 0,313
9 Strike Team 0,284
10 Berinsfield Hornets 0,253
11 Secret Air Service 0,227
12 Manchester Machine 0,154
13 Panteras Assassinas 0,148
14 Vilbler Wasserbube 0,082
15 Hot Pigs 0,049
16 Wakeville Warriors -0,065
17 Porto Slackers -0,069
18 Winds of Erytheia -0,077
19 Blood Kings -0,092
20 Dijon Cerberus -0,131
21 Benik Cowboys -0,164
22 Adelaide Crows -0,186
23 Spawn City Killers -0,205
24 Dolni Chabry Patriots -0,276
25 Drunken Sailors Borshow -0,288
26 Sedalia Slugs -0,365
27 California Thunder -0,378
28 KickAss -0,392
29 Adendorf Cowboyz -0,435
30 Berlin Bears -0,444
31 New York Impact -0,641
32 Manchester Spartans -0,812

Last edited on 2014-06-04 05:43:35 by jack6

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jack6
Leverkusen Leopards

Germany   jack6 owns a supporter account   jack6 is a Knight of RedZoneAction.org

Joined: 2011-09-05/S00
Posts: 7081
Top Manager



 
posted: 2014-06-18 06:20:02 (ID: 100036353) Report Abuse
I did a calculation which included ALL games of RZA (league, supercup and CoC) and this is the ranking for the monachs region of season 12.

Rank Value League Name TeamName
1 1,032 Monarchs 1.1 St. George's Dynamo Patriots
2 1,018 Monarchs 1.1 Black Dragons
3 0,967 Monarchs 1.1 Skyzo Shenkos
4 0,914 Monarchs 1.1 GatorNation
5 0,881 Monarchs 1.1 Down Under Devils
6 0,843 Monarchs 1.1 Paxtang Black Panthers
7 0,840 Monarchs 1.1 Leverkusen Leopards
8 0,833 Monarchs 2.1 Muppet Liberation Army
9 0,791 Monarchs 1.1 Gliwice Lions
10 0,784 Monarchs 1.1 Strike Team
11 0,780 Monarchs 1.1 Panteras Assassinas
12 0,734 Monarchs 1.1 Secret Air Service
13 0,726 Monarchs 2.1 Rixdorf Reapers
14 0,708 Monarchs 1.1 Berinsfield Hornets
15 0,692 Monarchs 1.1 Manchester Machine
16 0,671 Monarchs 2.2 Kingston Als
17 0,639 Monarchs 1.1 Vilbler Wasserbube
18 0,635 Monarchs 2.1 Neptunes Bologna
19 0,635 Monarchs 2.1 SG Speed Merchants
20 0,621 Monarchs 2.1 srib|bdx
21 0,618 Monarchs 2.2 Ronneburg Knights
22 0,618 Monarchs 2.1 League of Shadows
23 0,615 Monarchs 2.1 P-Town Red Raiders
24 0,600 Monarchs 2.1 Burnaby Bruisers
25 0,592 Monarchs 2.2 Silesian Steelers
26 0,579 Monarchs 1.1 Porto Slackers
27 0,572 Monarchs 1.1 Winds of Erytheia
28 0,568 Monarchs 1.1 Hot Pigs
29 0,559 Monarchs 1.1 Wakeville Warriors
30 0,554 Monarchs 2.1 Glenwood Cougars
31 0,554 Monarchs 1.1 Dijon Cerberus
32 0,552 Monarchs 2.1 River City Ice
33 0,524 Monarchs 1.1 Blood Kings
34 0,516 Monarchs 2.1 Florida Gators
35 0,499 Monarchs 1.1 Adelaide Crows
36 0,485 Monarchs 2.1 Harrisburg Fire
37 0,480 Monarchs 2.1 Marines
38 0,462 Monarchs 2.2 Newhouse Eagles
39 0,432 Monarchs 1.1 Drunken Sailors Borshow
40 0,422 Monarchs 1.1 Spawn City Killers
41 0,412 Monarchs 1.1 Benik Cowboys
42 0,396 Monarchs 2.2 Angelland Cardinals
43 0,367 Monarchs 3.4 BOIU
44 0,366 Monarchs 1.1 KickAss
45 0,365 Monarchs 2.2 Moscow Broncos
46 0,365 Monarchs 1.1 Sedalia Slugs
47 0,349 Monarchs 1.1 California Thunder
48 0,346 Monarchs 2.1 Cincinnati FlightHawks
49 0,342 Monarchs 2.1 Berlin White Knights
50 0,291 Monarchs 2.2 Tampa Bay
51 0,276 Monarchs 2.1 Black Sails
52 0,264 Monarchs 1.1 Adendorf Cowboyz
53 0,263 Monarchs 1.1 Dolni Chabry Patriots
54 0,258 Monarchs 1.1 Berlin Bears
55 0,226 Monarchs 2.1 Torchwood Aliens
56 0,186 Monarchs 3.4 Marysville
57 0,122 Monarchs 2.1 White Reapers
58 0,114 Monarchs 3.1 Helmstedt Sharks
59 0,101 Monarchs 3.4 Dirty Hallions
60 0,089 Monarchs 3.3 Fenrirs Welpes
61 0,077 Monarchs 3.4 Versailles Knights
62 0,068 Monarchs 3.4 Berlin Black Panthers
63 0,021 Monarchs 3.4 Nordjylland Yellowtigers
64 0,015 Monarchs 3.4 Puerto Rico Pistols
65 0,005 Monarchs 2.1 Arctic Chill
66 -0,040 Monarchs 3.1 Ely Packers
67 -0,051 Monarchs 3.4 Rome Gladiators
68 -0,085 Monarchs 2.1 Gremlin
69 -0,109 Monarchs 3.4 Horns1
70 -0,117 Monarchs 3.4 Lucky Vikings
71 -0,126 Monarchs 3.1 Mingo Miners
72 -0,132 Monarchs 3.2 Gingoog Hunters
73 -0,165 Monarchs 3.1 farroupilha fodas
74 -0,168 Monarchs 2.2 Bridgeston Bastards
75 -0,170 Monarchs 3.1 Columbia Plateau Flood Basalts
76 -0,179 Monarchs 3.4 San Juan Coquí
77 -0,186 Monarchs 2.1 Bois de Boulogne
78 -0,188 Monarchs 3.3 Denver Evolutions
79 -0,191 Monarchs 3.1 footballr.at Stallions
80 -0,200 Monarchs 3.1 SEC Elite
81 -0,201 Monarchs 3.2 Loopbackers
82 -0,220 Monarchs 2.2 Dreigiau Cymreig
83 -0,222 Monarchs 2.1 Green Monkey's
84 -0,222 Monarchs 3.4 Royals
85 -0,223 Monarchs 2.2 New England Dream
86 -0,223 Monarchs 3.2 Hard Line
87 -0,224 Monarchs 3.1 Portsmouth Spartans
88 -0,229 Monarchs 1.1 Manchester Spartans
89 -0,230 Monarchs 3.3 Biesenthal Titans
90 -0,230 Monarchs 3.1 dark leyends
91 -0,230 Monarchs 3.2 Port Credit Wildcats
92 -0,235 Monarchs 3.4 New York Giants
93 -0,237 Monarchs 2.2 The Reds
94 -0,238 Monarchs 3.4 Olimpic Gozzano
95 -0,240 Monarchs 3.3 La Croix Eagles
96 -0,244 Monarchs 3.1 Nenima Hunters
97 -0,247 Monarchs 1.1 New York Impact
98 -0,248 Monarchs 2.2 redbulls
99 -0,249 Monarchs 3.3 Baltimore Knights
100 -0,251 Monarchs 3.1 BRONX BALLHOG
101 -0,251 Monarchs 3.2 59ers
102 -0,253 Monarchs 3.1 Toretto's
103 -0,259 Monarchs 3.2 Harrington Whitetails
104 -0,267 Monarchs 3.2 Walney Terriers
105 -0,269 Monarchs 3.2 AFC Schwaben
106 -0,269 Monarchs 3.2 Worcester StreetCleaners
107 -0,273 Monarchs 3.2 Kelenna Obi Sharks
108 -0,273 Monarchs 3.3 Pwnage
109 -0,277 Monarchs 3.4 Hamburg Huskies
110 -0,277 Monarchs 3.3 Dragon Knights
111 -0,281 Monarchs 3.3 IndonesiaWarior
112 -0,284 Monarchs 2.1 Gorillas
113 -0,286 Monarchs 3.3 Chicago Dream Team
114 -0,289 Monarchs 3.1 Dragoes
115 -0,289 Monarchs 3.2 Auckland Titans
116 -0,292 Monarchs 3.2 Vaticans
117 -0,294 Monarchs 3.1 Seattle Seahawks
118 -0,296 Monarchs 3.2 New England Patriots
119 -0,297 Monarchs 3.2 Team 3.2.32
120 -0,303 Monarchs 3.1 Knob Noster Apaches
121 -0,308 Monarchs 3.2 Team 3.2.15
122 -0,313 Monarchs 3.3 stars
123 -0,315 Monarchs 3.1 Euro Boyz
124 -0,315 Monarchs 3.2 Heraclea Hades
125 -0,316 Monarchs 3.4 Prospect Knights
126 -0,316 Monarchs 3.3 Terenure Ravens
127 -0,322 Monarchs 3.2 mighty mol fc
128 -0,324 Monarchs 3.1 Cleveland Browns
129 -0,324 Monarchs 2.2 Sydney Flames
130 -0,325 Monarchs 3.4 R.C. Corona Brasov
131 -0,325 Monarchs 3.1 Extremeteam
132 -0,326 Monarchs 3.4 Redhawks
133 -0,326 Monarchs 2.1 BLUE DILIS
134 -0,329 Monarchs 2.2 Cornish Sharks
135 -0,330 Monarchs 3.4 NY Templars
136 -0,330 Monarchs 3.3 Team 3.3.25
137 -0,332 Monarchs 3.3 Los Latinkings
138 -0,333 Monarchs 3.3 Cox Mill Chargers
139 -0,334 Monarchs 3.3 Team 3.3.9
140 -0,336 Monarchs 3.3 Kolbasz
141 -0,337 Monarchs 3.4 Linden Skyhawks
142 -0,337 Monarchs 2.2 The Amphetamines
143 -0,339 Monarchs 3.2 Team 3.2.11
144 -0,340 Monarchs 3.3 Team 3.3.21
145 -0,341 Monarchs 2.1 Northwest Space Pioneers
146 -0,343 Monarchs 3.3 Nuclears
147 -0,345 Monarchs 3.2 Los Bimbos
148 -0,348 Monarchs 3.2 Freiburg Dragons
149 -0,351 Monarchs 3.4 St. Pauli Buccaneers
150 -0,351 Monarchs 3.3 Montan team
151 -0,352 Monarchs 3.3 Team 3.3.18
152 -0,353 Monarchs 3.1 Snapping Turtles
153 -0,354 Monarchs 2.2 Blue Devils
154 -0,359 Monarchs 2.2 Rivne Monarchs
155 -0,360 Monarchs 2.2 Kofa Kings
156 -0,361 Monarchs 3.2 B33R
157 -0,362 Monarchs 2.2 KC Bears
158 -0,363 Monarchs 2.2 Who let the dogs out
159 -0,364 Monarchs 3.1 Los Angeles Gauchos
160 -0,365 Monarchs 3.3 Alcala
161 -0,369 Monarchs 3.3 Soma team
162 -0,371 Monarchs 3.1 Da Bears
163 -0,373 Monarchs 2.2 NJ Dingos
164 -0,379 Monarchs 3.4 Scrappers
165 -0,379 Monarchs 2.2 Style Points
166 -0,382 Monarchs 3.4 GreenBacks
167 -0,383 Monarchs 2.1 Beasts
168 -0,384 Monarchs 3.2 Seahawks
169 -0,388 Monarchs 3.4 djusj
170 -0,388 Monarchs 3.1 Bombers
171 -0,388 Monarchs 3.2 Cai Games Athletics
172 -0,392 Monarchs 3.2 The Quake
173 -0,393 Monarchs 3.1 The Spectres
174 -0,393 Monarchs 3.4 Fen Tigers
175 -0,394 Monarchs 2.2 NOtown RoLLaZ
176 -0,395 Monarchs 3.1 Plymouth Pats
177 -0,395 Monarchs 3.1 Team 3.2.24
178 -0,395 Monarchs 2.1 Buffalo Bandits
179 -0,399 Monarchs 3.4 Gli Sgabali
180 -0,405 Monarchs 3.4 Himmelsburg Devils
181 -0,408 Monarchs 3.4 Atticall All-Stars
182 -0,411 Monarchs 3.3 RJ
183 -0,416 Monarchs 2.1 Hamburg Lost Boys
184 -0,418 Monarchs 3.2 M-P Tomahawks
185 -0,421 Monarchs 3.4 sharks the aaswome
186 -0,423 Monarchs 2.2 Dc United
187 -0,423 Monarchs 3.3 Blackhawks
188 -0,428 Monarchs 3.2 Hampton Crabbers
189 -0,429 Monarchs 3.3 Dresden Braves
190 -0,430 Monarchs 2.2 Monterey Mavericks
191 -0,432 Monarchs 2.2 CNY Bears
192 -0,433 Monarchs 3.2 pirates
193 -0,434 Monarchs 3.3 London Philosophers
194 -0,440 Monarchs 2.1 Paris Blitzers
195 -0,442 Monarchs 2.2 Gladiators
196 -0,443 Monarchs 3.1 Boston Patriots
197 -0,446 Monarchs 3.4 Reading Cowboys
198 -0,448 Monarchs 3.1 Chanacki
199 -0,455 Monarchs 3.2 Redskins
200 -0,462 Monarchs 2.2 Virginia Vipers
201 -0,463 Monarchs 3.1 packers
202 -0,466 Monarchs 3.2 Parker Lumberjacks
203 -0,471 Monarchs 2.2 The Praha Warriors
204 -0,474 Monarchs 3.3 Team 3.3.13
205 -0,476 Monarchs 3.3 The Belgae Titans
206 -0,480 Monarchs 2.1 Grazzano Cowboys
207 -0,480 Monarchs 3.1 Patriots
208 -0,481 Monarchs 3.2 Ravens Poznań
209 -0,482 Monarchs 2.2 Gahanna Golden Lions
210 -0,483 Monarchs 3.2 Team 3.2.21
211 -0,489 Monarchs 3.3 Houston Oilers
212 -0,492 Monarchs 2.1 Footballas United
213 -0,495 Monarchs 3.3 Salt Lake Storm
214 -0,495 Monarchs 3.3 Team 3.3.24
215 -0,496 Monarchs 3.4 Real Amazing
216 -0,498 Monarchs 2.1 Oregon Ducks
217 -0,498 Monarchs 2.2 St.Pete Crusaders
218 -0,510 Monarchs 3.4 Team 3.3.15
219 -0,516 Monarchs 3.1 Backyard Clowns
220 -0,524 Monarchs 3.1 mima
221 -0,539 Monarchs 3.3 Girls Club
222 -0,567 Monarchs 2.2 Pick 6
223 -0,586 Monarchs 3.1 Rochester Knights
224 -0,608 Monarchs 3.2 Saskatoon Storm
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Stigma
posted: 2014-06-20 12:03:28 (ID: 100036629) Report Abuse
Congratulation for the enormous work you did!!
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