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Main / Galaxy / Galaxy 1.1 Season #27 Search Forum
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Poster Message
McKay93
posted: 2017-08-29 15:18:01 (ID: 100112933) Report Abuse
I guess I have too much free time, so I decided to do some sort of season preview. I know that neither Elo nor Rating are a good indicator of true team strength, but that is what I got to work with.

AC East (avg. Elo: 796)
Durham Wasps: last season result: 16-0 (2.1); Bowl Winner
Grizzly Bears of bupti: last season result: 13-3 (2.1); CC-Round
Munich Saints: last season result: 13-3; WC-Round
Saint Etchford Spitfires: last season result: 13-3; WC-Round

Predicted outcome based on Elo
Saint Etchford Spitfires 14-2 (z)
Munich Saints 9-7
Durham Wasps 4-12
Grizzly Bears of bupti 1-15

Predicted outcome based on Rating*
Saint Etchford Spitfires 14-2 (z)
Durham Wasps 10-6
Munich Saints 8-8
Grizzly Bears of bupti 1-15

Spitfires should win this division, Saints and Wasps will likely battle for a wildcard spot, the Grizzly Bears will have a hard time avoiding relegation this season.

AC North (avg. Elo: 710)
Budweiss Red Foxes: last season result: 4-12
Detroit Gros Hamsters: last season result: 8-8
Mongolian Prairie Weasels: last season result: 11-5; DP-Round
Phins: last season result: 16-0(2.2); Bowl Runner-Up

Predicted outcome based on Elo
Mongolian Prairie Weasels 9-7 (z)
Detroit Gros Hamsters 6-10
Budweiss Red Foxes 3-13
Phins 1-15

Predicted outcome based on Rating*
Detroit Gros Hamsters 15-1 (z)
Mongolian Prairie Weasels 8-8
Budweiss Red Foxes 5-11
Phins 0-16

Gros Hamsters and Weasels will battle for the division crown this season, Red Foxes will likely not be relevant while Phins will struggle to stay in 1.1

AC South (avg. Elo: 832)
Guinness Drinkers United: last season result: 9-7(EL)
Meda Bruins: last season result: 5-11
Munich Germans: last season result: 3-13
Soul Sonic Force: last season result: 12-4; CC-Round

Predicted outcome based on Elo
Guinness Drinkers United 16-0 (z)
Soul Sonic Force 13-3 (y)
Meda Bruins 6-10
Munich Germans 0-16

Predicted outcome based on Rating*
Soul Sonic Force 15-1 (z)
Guinness Drinkers United 13-3 (y)
Munich Germans 6-10
Meda Bruins 1-15

With both the Drinkers and Soul Sonic Force, getting the Divison crown will be hard fought for either team. Both teams should make the playoffs this season. Munich Germans and Meda Bruins are not strong enough to compete in this division and can't hope for much more than avoiding relegation.

AC West (avg. Elo: 870)
Dumbarajko Elephants: last season result: 7-9
Green Bay Badgers: last season result: 14-2(2.2); Bowl Winner
Green Panthers: last season result: 10-6
Montesacro Mermaids: last season result: 16-0; DP-Round

Predicted outcome based on Elo
Montesacro Mermaids 16-0 (*)
Green Panthers 12-4 (y)
Dumbarajko Elephants 7-9
Green Bay Badgers 3-13

Predicted outcome based on Rating*
Montesacro Mermaids 16-0 (*)
Dumbarajko Elephants 11-5 (y)
Green Panthers 5-11
Green Bay Badgers 0-16

Mermaids are the favourite for the bowl this season and they will win this Division. Elephants vs. Panthers will be a hard fought battle for a Wild Card spot. The Badgers will struggle to remain in 1.1 this season.

NC East (avg. Elo: 881)
Bretzfeld Bandits: last season result: 9-7; DP-Round
Denver Death: last season result: 6-10
Saffron City Psychics: last season result: 9-7; WC-Round
San Diego Hurricanes: last season result: 13-3; CC-Round

Predicted outcome based on Elo
San Diego Hurricanes 16-0 (*)
Bretzfeld Bandits 13-3 (y)
Denver Death 9-7
Saffron City Psychics 4-12

Predicted outcome based on Rating*
San Diego Hurricanes 16-0 (*)
Denver Death 8-8
Saffron City Psychics 6-10
Bretzfeld Bandits 3-13

On paper, the hardest division in Galaxy 1.1. Hurricanes should storm through NC and reach the bowl this season, but both Denver Death and Bretzfeld Bandits can reach the playoffs, as they proved last season. The Psychics are not quite strong enough to reach the playoffs in this tough division, but at least they should not have problems avoiding relegation.

NC North (avg. Elo: 800)
Black Seaweed: last season result: 6-10
BU Terriers: last season result: 15-1(2.1); Bowl Runner-Up
Torino Black Bulls: last season result: 5-11(EL)
Vienna Armadillos: last season result: 9-7

Predicted outcome based on Elo
Torino Black Bulls 14-2 (z)
Vienna Armadillos 11-5 (y)
Black Seaweed 4-12
BU Terriers 0-16

Predicted outcome based on Rating*
Torino Black Bulls 15-1 (z)
Vienna Armadillos 10-6 (y)
Black Seaweed 7-9
BU Terriers 1-15

After relegating from Elite Legue, the Black Bulls will look to get right back up. The Armadillos are in the run for a playoff spot this season, although i personally think it will be much closer between the Armadillos and Black Seaweed. BU terriers will struggle to avoid relegation this season.

NC South (avg. Elo: 858)
Kitty Hawk Terpz: last season result: 16-0(2.1); DP-Round
Soton Pangolins: last season result: 4-12
Universitatea Craiova: last season result: 15-1; DP-Round
Wallace Wildcats: last season result: 5-11

Predicted outcome based on Elo
Universitatea Craiova 15-1 (z)
Wallace Wildcats 11-5
Soton Pangolins 10-5
Kitty Hawk Terpz 7-9

Predicted outcome based on Rating*
Universitatea Craiova 13-3 (z)
Soton Pangolins 12-4 (y)
Wallace Wildcats 8-8
Kitty Hawk Terpz 2-14

Probably the closest division this season, Universitatea Craiova, Soton Pangolins and Wallace Wildcats will all have a shot at the division crown, though Universitatea Craiova is the slight favourite. Kitty Hawk Terpz should have it in them to avoid relegation this season.

NC West (avg. Elo: 681)
16_horsepower: last season result: 3-13
Buffalo Eagles: last season result: 16-0(2.2); CC-Round
Coastal Dolphins: last season result: 8-8
Norman Hunters: last season result: 7-9

Predicted outcome based on Elo
Norman Hunters 9-7 (z)
Coastal Dolphins 8-8
Buffalo Eagles 3-13
16_horsepower 0-16

Predicted outcome based on Rating*
Norman Hunters 12-4 (z)
Coastal Dolphins 9-7
16_horsepower 3-13
Buffalo Eagles 0-16

The weakest division on paper, Norman Hunters and Coastal Dolphins will battle for a spot in the playoffs. Both 16_horsepower and Buffalo Eagles will have to fight hard to avoid relegation.

*Since it is the off season, I used the maximum from current Rating and Rating from the last competetive league match for that team as base for the rating used in the predictions.
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pete
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posted: 2017-08-29 15:25:02 (ID: 100112935) Report Abuse
nice...luckily neither ELO nor RATING win games
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Gambler75
posted: 2017-08-29 20:47:16 (ID: 100112971) Report Abuse
Hell of a nice write up!
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Beergut2
posted: 2017-08-30 21:05:27 (ID: 100113133) Report Abuse
Gambler75 wrote:
Hell of a nice write up!


Ditto! I can only hope I end up with such a good record. Things have not been going well for the Wildcats lately...
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McKay93
posted: 2017-09-06 00:39:40 (ID: 100113683) Report Abuse
So... the fight against the silence here continues
What do you think where the most notable results of this first two weeks? Here is what I found:
Week 1:
Budweiss Red Foxes 23:63 Meda Bruins
Meda Bruins get their first W in a very commanding way by a remarkably high marging.

Kitty Hawk Terpz 20:17 Soton Pangolins
Kitty Hawk Terpz get their first W in OT against an opponent that was much higher rated.

Mongolian Prairie Weasels 42:14 Detroit Gros Hamsters
This game should have been a lot closer than it actually turned out... Even the stats point to a very close game, except for those 3 interceptions...

Week 2:
Durham Wasps 27:28 San Diego Hurricanes
Durham Wasps incredibly close to a huge upset victory, in any case a really good performance from them.

Munich Germans 45:46 Buffalo Eagles
Buffalo Eagles win this high-scoring shootout by a last minute FG. Lots of things going on in this match, must have been fun to watch

Universitatea Craiova 35:17 Torino Black Bulls
After this sound win against Torino Black Bulls, we can expect Universitatea Craiova to be a serious contender for the Championship this season.
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GullyFoyle
posted: 2017-09-06 20:55:31 (ID: 100113745) Report Abuse
Thought I had my game in week 2. Shocked even me. Led for quite a while and had a chance late when only a point behind with little time left. Lack of a 2 minute offence didn't help, and there are other problems with my playbook that need looking at. Still an encouraging result though.
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McKay93
posted: 2017-09-09 20:10:31 (ID: 100113898) Report Abuse
WHAAAAT


How did this happen???
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McKay93
posted: 2017-09-28 15:53:30 (ID: 100115204) Report Abuse

Really not much going on here, so here is another desperate attempt to bring some life into our league... I've been doing some sort of Power Rankings for the league since the start of the season and now, after 8 weeks, it is ready to be shared
I only used the results of the games played for these rankings, not their expected strengt or considering if they used backups for the game and things like that.

Completely unexpected number one, but after going 7-0 and defeating both San Diego Hurricanes and Guinness Drinkers United, they deserve that top spot.
#1 Coastal Dolphins 7-0
#2 Universitatea Craiova 7-0
#3 Soul Sonic Force 7-0
#4 Montesacro Mermaids 6-1
#5 Vienna Armadillos 6-1
#6 San Diego Hurricanes 6-1
#7 Munich Saints 7-0
#8 Guinness Drinkers United 7-1
#9 Wallace Wildcats 6-2
#10 Torino Black Bulls 4-3
#11 Saffron City Psychics 6-2
#12 Green Panthers 4-3
#13 Black Seaweed 3-4
#14 Mongolian Prairie Weasels 4-4
#15 Meda Bruins 3-5
#16 BU Terriers 3-5
#17 Norman Hunters 3-4
#18 Dumbarajko Elephants 2-5
#19 Durham Wasps 2-5
#20 Munich Germans 3-4
#21 Soton Pangolins 2-5
#22 Grizzly Bears of bupti 1-6
#23 16_horsepower 2-5
#24 Phins 3-5
#25 Bretzfeld Bandits 2-5
#26 Detroit Gros Hamsters 1-6
#27 Denver Death 2-5
#28 Green Bay Badgers 1-6
#29 Buffalo Eagles 1-7
#30 Budweiss Red Foxes 1-7
#31 Kitty Hawk Terpz 1-7
#32 Saint Etchford Spitfires 4-3
Sad to see them go bot , but going bot obviously puts the team at last spot.

I still think I rated myself too high, but that is a problem the next few weeks should fix

If there is any interest, I can u p d a t e this every week, maybe even write a blurb for big movements, just let me know what you think, feel free to discuss what I did wrong in these rankings - and bring some life into Galaxy
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pete
H2TAGIT4Q

Europe   pete owns a supporter account   pete is a Knight of RedZoneAction.org

Joined: 2011-09-01/S00
Posts: 20571
Top Manager



 
posted: 2017-09-28 16:01:40 (ID: 100115208) Report Abuse
McKay93 wrote:

If there is any interest, I can u p d a t e this every week, maybe even write a blurb for big movements, just let me know what you think, feel free to discuss what I did wrong in these rankings - and bring some life into Galaxy


I like it very much, good job.

And, the Drinkers will be back, promised!
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OrangeCrush
posted: 2017-09-28 16:06:13 (ID: 100115211) Report Abuse
Good Read McKay,

I will try to show some signs of life here as I could very well need a home here next season
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