2024-07-19 13:24

I did preview the Conference USA and the Mid American Conference so far. Now I will have a look at the

Sun Belt Conference

The Sun Belt had no changes since 2022, when several teams did join, including James Madison from FCS. The Dukes were ineligible for post season games for the past 2 seasons, but are now a full member.

The conference is the only conference left inside the FBS level, which does have divisions and who will set up the Championship game with the 2 division champions (last season did JMU break that rule, since they were not eligible, but this season all teams are eligible).

Several bigger changes in the teams will produce likely a quite different field of competitors compared to last season. The back-to-back-Champion Troy got a new HC, because the former one got a better job at Tulane. James Madison’s success in that 2-year transition phase was also too good to keep the coach long-term (he became the HC of Indiana). Georgia State had to replace their HC, since the former one went to South Carolina as position coach, and South Alabama’s HC became the DC of Alabama. Only one team did change their HC because of missing results, Louisiana-Monroe.

In total a lot of changes, which will change the level of power a bit inside the conference.

Inside the East Division, Appalachian State and James Madison are the frontrunners to get into the Championship game, but Marshall and Coastal Carolina might challenge them big time.
And in the West Division we might see Texas State or Arkansas State running the table, while Louisiana and South Alabama do try to catch them.
Overall, the favorite to win it all is likely Appalachian State.

Let's start with the East Division and Appalachian State. Shawn Clark is in his 5th full season and of course last year was a rough trip. The team started bad, but from mid-season onwards, thanks to their winning streak and some surprising losses by other teams, the team finished 2nd place in the division. And thanks to JMUs ineligibility for post-season-games, the team went to play for the Championship and lost to Troy, went to a Bowl and won that one. Their offense line needs almost a complete set of new starters, but the rest of the offense is almost fully intact, especially the QB is back. The defense brings back 9 starters, which should help to make the defense better than last year. A mixed schedule, with crucial games, like JMU at home, will give them some help to eventually finishing on top of the division.

James Madison had one of the best transition periods from FCS to FBS of any team since 20 seasons. The former HC, who guided them into the FBS, did win 19-4 in 2 seasons and the team did even play last year a bowl game, despite they were not eligible to play, thanks to a lack of qualifying teams. They lost that game, still the team did look in good shape. The coach was hired to coach Tulane, so JMU took Bob Chesney as new HC. He was the past 6 seasons the HC of Holy Cross (FCS) and won the conference in the past 5 seasons and went to the FCS-playoffs in all of those, except last year. Expectations are high, he will have maybe a small setback to adjust, but JMU does stay in the hunt for a championship. That won't come easy with just 4 starters returning, but the hope is the portal transfers incoming will help big time and the Dukes can compete fast. This place here in the list is a big bonus to the coach and the program, other programs under such circumstances would be much deeper. The non-conference schedule is quite fluffy, and the conference schedule is also quite easy, so maybe the combination will result in a good win-loss-ration. I just doubt it will be enough to get a championship game spot.

Marshall had all the tool last season to make a statement, but the team under Charles Huff did start 4-0 and then lost 5 in a row, only to barely get the 6th win on last gameday for a bowl spot. Now in his 4th season, all eyes will be on the HC. A new OC is hired to fix the bad offense of last year and many makeovers should help to either run the team into the ground or to return to the results of 2022, where they had 9 wins. Likely the schedule will prevent a major turnaround, since non-conference is not easy for them and the conference games do feature some tough teams from the west also. Likely a bowl game season, but a I doubt more.

I was unable to determine, whether Coastal Carolina should be ahead of Marshall or not. I decided to put Marshall ahead, because I believe they have a better chance to win, but it can happen that Tim Beck in his 2nd season as HC fixes the defense issues and suddenly the team wins more than the 8 games (including a bowl win) of last season. The team has good chances to actually win many non-conference games, but many of the important games inside the conference are on the road, so this might spoil the party. In general, the team could surprise big time and might even challenge Appalachian State, but I decide to put them 4th, but I think a bowl season is it anyway.

Old Dominion did play a good season last year, went even to a bowl, but it could have been much better, if they would have won the 5 games, they lost by less than 7 points. If they want to get into the next level, they need to win such close games. To be fair, they actually won 4 games with less than 7 points also. Ricky Rahne is in his 5th season, and he did elevate the team from several non-bowling seasons to a bowl, but so far no winning season, with last year’s 6-7 being the best. He does have his QB and his wideouts back, but the O-line needs help, for sure. The defense was not good, the best LB is still not 100% from a knee injury of last season, the secondary is in rebuild mode. Maybe all pieces come together at the right time, but I think that unit will let the team down and maybe this season there will be no bowl game. A quite tough schedule does add to the roster misery.

Clay Helton is in his 3rd season with Georgia Southern and so far, did he manage to produce 2 6-7 campaigns with 2 bowls lost. In both seasons the team did start strong, but finished weak, last year even with 5 losses in a row. A new QB, some new wideouts and a few new starters on the o-line might shake things up, or lead to the next strange season. Their hope might be the defense returning 8 starters. The non-conference games will be tough, the conference games do look also not very encouraging, so I think they will lose some more games than last year and would then not make it to a bowl.

And at last, we have Georgia State. Dell McGee was hired to become the next HC, the former RB and run game coordinator of Georgia. This might translate into a better coached team, but he was hired late in the off-season (mid-February) since the last HC did bolt at that time to become an assistant at South Carolina. And the team did lose the playmakers and most of the o-line, which means the team has to find all those starters new. The defense has 6 starters returning, but overall was the unit last season not good. The new coordinator will eventually bring the best out of them. In total an absolutely revamp/rebuild season is to expect. The schedule on non-conference is quite weak, so that might help, inside the conference the schedule is almost as tough as it can get, so if they surprisingly get more wins than I expect (which are 0 to 4) than the team is at least next season a contender.

In the West one can argue about which team to put at #1, but after reading some stuff I came to the conclusion that Texas State could actually win the division. G. J. Kinne did lead the team in his 1st season to 8 wins, including a bowl win. This season, he got one of the best, if not THE best QB transferred from James Madison to Texas State, a very good backfield and wide outs and one of the best o-lines of the Sun Belt. The defense was bad last year, but 8 returning starters and a new coordinator should help to improve that unit and eventually squeeze out some more wins. The non-conference schedule might cash in 3 wins and the conference mix is very favorable with almost every contender in the west at home and mid-level to low-level teams from the East. Conclusion, the team can win the division and more.

Next in line is likely Arkansas State, in the 4th season of Butch Jones reign. He did elevate the team, which was one of the top teams of the Sun Belt for quite some time, but fell hard when some bad coaches were hired, from 2 wins in his 1st year to 6 last year. They lost the bowl game, but the team seems to get into contention mode again. This season the offense should be OK with a big bunch of starters, including one of the best QBs of the Sun Belt, returning. But the defense, which was bad last year, will only return 5 guys, so either the new guys will emerge as starters, or the team needs some time to adjust and to gain experience. I fear for the latter. Their schedule is almost comparable with that of Texas State, maybe the non-conference part is a bit tougher, and the key games are on the road.

Not sure how much room is left for Michael Desormeaux in his 3rd season. The 1st 2 years were both 6-7 and featured both bowl losses. That's way under the level the past HC had the Ragin' Cajuns brought to (2 Conference championships back-to-back and when he left for Florida the team had a record of 12-1). That 3rd season will likely bring an improvement, which will likely save him for now. The offense will be in good shape with a lot of returning starters, including one of the best o-line of the Sun Belt. But also this team will have a problem on defense with 7 returning starters on a unit, which was not good last year. A new coordinator is brought in to fix this and depended on the results, this team could become a real contender or will suffer from some tough losses. The good news is, the non-conference run is fluffy, the rest quite tough. In the mix I expect a bowl season, but not a championship season.

I like the program South Alabama very much; they did come into FBS some time ago (2012) and did good at the start for a new team but dropped a bit under their 2nd HC. Then came Kane Wommack and he elevated the team quite high inside the conference, which allowed him to switch to a coordinator jab at Alabama this off-season. So, a new coach for 2024, Major Applewhite. He was the HC of Houston for 2 seasons but was fired (2018) with a record of 15-11. He went on for some coordinator job and landed 2021 at South Alabama and got the main gig this off season. Such promotion can lead to smooth transitions, but the team itself is in transition with just a few starters returning. The new personal looks promising, whether that will be enough, is open. The non-conference games are OK, the conference games also mixed. If the team comes together, it has the potential to end much better than the 4th place, I did put them. If not, they might even slip deeper.

With just 4 returning starters it is almost certain, that the 2-time-defending Sun Belt Champion Troy will not be in the mix for a three-peat. On top is the HC gone and went to Tulane, so the new guy, Gerad Parker, last season’s OC of Notre Dame, will has to rebuild the team almost from scratch. The non-conference schedule is mixed, but not too tough, the conference schedule not the hardest, so chances are there to win several games if the team comes together and click. I doubt that in the 1st season.

Southern Miss has an important season ahead of them, at least for the HC Will Hall. He is in his 4th season and so far, his results are 3-9, 7-6 with a bowl win and 3-9 last season. I doubt he will survive another big losing season. So winning is important and that has to be accomplished by 2 returning starters on offense and 5 on defense. Not the best circumstances to make a push for a bowl season. The non-conference games are quite fluffy, so they might cash in on some of them, the conference games are quite tough, which makes me believe the team will not get a bowl spot and will finish on a bad spot. Which will likely be also a bad situation for the HC.

And at last, we have Louisiana-Monroe, again. The team did hire a new HC to eventually get away from the losing image and from the bad result. Bryant Vincent was New Mexico’s OC last season and that team had some juice, so maybe the Warhawks can win more games by some offense production. Unfortune, this has to be done by a new set of players, since the offense has just 1 returning starter and that is on the o-line. The defense looks better with 5 returning starters, but overall, the portal will be crucial to turn things around. Usually, the schedule is almost irrelevant for UML, every game is tough, but with Texas and Auburn the team has 2 SEC teams as non-conference and on top has James Madison and Marshall of the East. I guess at least this season, it will be a long season cut short after the regular season with no bowl in sight.

It will be interesting to see, whether the teams will again send 12 of 14 teams to a bowl. I have my doubts. This season the defenses seems to need a reload on many teams, so maybe we will see a lot of points on Sun Belt games.

That’s it for the Sun Belt, more next week.

'Til next time
Jack6 on BLOCK OF GRANITE

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