2024-10-01 07:20

An interesting month comes to an end.

Season start is always some sort of the 1st step of the correction between the pre-season expectations (which are usually the extrapolations of results of former changes and result towards the future, combined with hopes, dreams and wishes), and the hard facts after every gameday.

And it is only the 1st step, because often the season start is dominated by non-conference games, which often are expected to be one-sided. The 2nd step than happens October, when many of the teams have a big set of conference games and sometimes very hopeful looking records are often shattered against the conference opponents, or bad starts are turned around, for whatever reason.

Usually in September no coach is fired, and this season no coach was fired in September. Some are for sure on a hot seat with the Florida HC likely being THE hottest one, but of course you only have to look at the teams with negative or very negative record so far and if the coach is not in his initial year and the school is a historic winning team or had a winning coach in the past decade, the coach is in trouble. If you are in your 3rd plus season with a negative record, you are in deep trouble.

But speculations do not bring us further here, often firing of HC is emotion (like after a lost rivalry game), feeling (like the feeling that the HC will never make the next step, winning a conference or get to a bowl or win a bowl) and at last business (like when you can fire the coach now or in 4 month and the difference is tenth of millions).

As far as I did read it and heard it, a college football coach has to manage a lot of stakeholders, including the big booster (money donators), and if the majority of those stakeholders is willing to make a change, the change is done, regardless the costs. This might change (as I did already hint it in past texts) thanks to NIL and the extra money now needed to pay players, but overall, the logic is still intact as the past 100 years. You are promoting here a brand and if that brand becomes tarnished, you have to act. Sometimes (if not often) the acting ends the HC reign, but finding a BETTER replacement is not as easy as expected or wanted. I know several bad examples from the past, where the trigger level on that 'tarnished' status had to be lowered with every HC coming in, since every cycle did become worse and worse.

Anyway, week 5 is in the books and some upsets did happen, and actually one coach was fired, but only an OC, not a HC. Purdue did part ways with his OC, since their offense was unable to produce yardage and points. Well, that's also part of the business. Usually, we only see the HCs chopped, but sometimes the HC starts the chopping to secure his own job status for a little longer. I would have to dig in deep, whether such a move did actually help a HC in the long run.

Let's get into week 5 reviews.

The BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 5

Sat. Sep 28
#15 Louisville @ #16 Notre Dame
Notre Dame had a big 1st quarter and won that 21:7.
But then the game did change and slowly the Louisville did gain some ground.
At the half they were still 10 points behind, in the 3rd, both teams did not have any production and in the 4th did Louisville score another field goal to make it a 1 score game.
Notre Dame did score TD on their next possession, but as did Louisville and time did become a factor.
Notre Dame was stopped after 3 plays and Louisville got the ball back with less than 3 minutes to play but failed to get past mid-field and the 4th down try was stopped.
The Irish did run down the clock and won at home.
If not for the NIU game, the Irish would look quite good right now, but that Huskies game will haunt them.
Still, they did gain some spots back and are now at #14 in the rankings.
Louisville did drop to #21 now, but they have 2 paths to the playoffs, either via the rankings (even the AP polls are NOT the final verdict here, they are a good indication) or winning the ACC.
Notre Dame NEEDS a good ranking.
Next for Louisville is a tough game against SMU and Notre Dame has a bye week and after that a seemingly walk in the park against Stanford.
#15 Louisville 24 @ #16 Notre Dame 31 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 11-4

#2 Georgia @ #4 Alabama
I think the game did live up to the hype it had.
A game between to top ranked teams, both unbeaten, long-lasting rivalry, especially very important the past few seasons, national television.
What happened?
Alabama came out of the locker, all fired up, won the 1st quarter 21:0.
Then came Georgia out of the locker and finally score, but Alabama did control them fine, won that quarter 9:7 and led big time at the half.
Must have been a fun game for Tide fans.
But did some of them fear a comeback try by the Bulldogs? For sure.
In the 3rd quarter did Georgia had a long drive and score a TD and Alabama were suddenly not that efficient anymore, were held to a field goal and Georgia won the quarter 8:3, still training by many points.
But Georgi had a flow established, scored in the 4th quarter 3 TDs and stopped Alabama on every drive afterwards, took even the lead, until they that streak did break, and Alabama score a TD on a 75-yard-first-play-after-kickoff-drive.
BAM, Tide had the lead back and the momentum in the stadium did shift again.
Georgia got the ball back with a bit more than 2 minutes to play and had a good drive going but committed their 4th turnover in the endzone and lost the game.
No big problem for the Dawgs, they lost against the now #1 ranked team in the country and the conference title game can still be reached.
Alabama is right now happy as it can get, since they did lose their hall-of-fame-HC in the off-season and are STILL now #1 in the country.
#2 Georgia 34 @ #4 Alabama 41 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 12-4

#19 Illinois @ #9 Penn State
I think this was an ugly game.
Both teams did not gift the other team much, at the half the score was tied at 7, with both teams already missed field goal tries.
Penn State came out of the locker a bit better and scored, while Illinois did try to do the same, but committed errors, which the Lions did happily accepted as gifts.
Penn State won a crucial game, even it was not expected to be such a game at season start.
And Illinois did lose this, sure, but it was against one of the top teams inside the conference, so if they win more games, that loss will be not that hard on the overall record as it might seem right now.
Only future will tell.
Illinois will play Purdue after a bye-week, which will likely help them to gain some ranking spots back.
And Penn State will play UCLA, which had so far not a great season, so maybe another W for the Lions coming.
#19 Illinois 7 @ #9 Penn State 21 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 13-4

And some other interesting games:

Sat. Sep 28
Washington State @ #25 Boise State
Until the 3rd quarter, this game was quite open.
Only it did look like, Washington State had to play catchup every drive.
But when Boise State went into the 4th quarter with a 24:10 lead, it was clear, Wazzu had to react, or they would lose here.
They did, and score a TD, so 24:17.
But Boise State did also and score a TD on the next drove and led 31:17.
Wazzu? Stopped.
Broncos? Scored another TD and then I think it was clear the game was over.
Washington did try what was possible, but realistically the game was over, and Boise won at the end 45:24.
A big setback for the Cougars, it did likely eliminate them from any playoff discussion.
A good win for Boise to stay in the hunt for a playoff spot.
Jacks interesting games Score: 9-6

Colorado @ UCF
Colorado did play an almost perfect game here and won 48:21.
UCF was unable to stop the high-powered offense of the Buffs and ... well ... if you can't do that, you lose. Sure.
Colorado will play Kansas State after a bye and that will be interesting, for sure.
UCF will play Florida next and might get hit down again or they might set one of the nails into the coffin of the Gators HC.
Jacks interesting games Score: 9-7

North Carolina @ Duke
Pffff. Not as much fun as I wanted.
UNC started good, lead 10:0, then 17:0.
The blue Devils seemed to be somewhere else.
Then in the 2nd half, they did appear and did win the 3rd quarter 7:3, which is far from enough to overcome the deficit.
And then ... well, let's say, the UNC offense was bad and the Blue Devils good enough to score the go-ahead TD with less than 6 minutes to go.
Then both teams were unable to do anything, and the game ended with a Blue Devils win 21:20.
The UNC HC is for sure now in hotter water than before with next stop at Pittsburgh and Duke will face the Yellow Jackets.
Jacks interesting games Score: 10-7

And some more funny result of week 5:

- Miami had their trouble with Virginia Tech but won 38:34. Miami now highly ranked national wide and VT is looking for answers to at least get to a bowl.
- Rutgers did win against Washington, 21:18. Not easy to be a Huskies fan right now, the last PAC-12 champ does not look good under the new coach, while the old coach did lead Alabama to #1 so far.
- A major upset did happen when #6 Ole Miss did lose against Kentucky 17:20, at home. Kentucky did almost upset Georgia last week, but this week they got their win. A big setback for Ole Miss and a big step forward for one of the most underrated programs of the past 10 seasons, Kentucky.
- And another major upset, here by Arizona winning against #10 Utah. For Arizona the end of a downward spiral (after last seasons great results) and for Utah a setback in the BIG-12 and national wide.
- Michigan did survive against Minnesota, 27:24. Minnesota again without a win and some say, their HC is at least in question, but honestly, he is the best they have in a long time, so better not fire him.
- Oklahoma did beat Auburn, on the road, 27:21. Auburn is looking for some positive news, but they just don't get them.
- UConn has beaten Buffalo, 47:3. The same Buffalo, who did beat ranked NIU last week, which have beaten Notre Dame before. That's crazy.
- Louisiana did beat Wake Forest, 41:38, on the road. Wake Forest really in a slump this season.
- TCU won against Kansas, 38:27, on the road. The energy and positive development of Kansas of last season seems to be gone.
- It seems Central Michigan is playing for their HC now, because they won again, this time against San Diego State, 22:21. After their big loss against FIU I thought the HC would be toast, soon. But now ... not sure. I think the Michigan-games against Eastern and Western will be crucial.
- UT Martin (FCS) has won against Kennesaw State, a quite new FBS team in transition from FCS, 24:13. But UT Martin is not a good team, so that does not look for the future this season for the Owls.
- Louisiana Monroe did beat Troy, 13:9. Big win for the Red Hawks, a often losing team.
- SMU has won against Florida State, 42:16. That is now the 4th loss by FSU, which is for sure not as expected.

That's that for week 5 reviews.

Now we go to week 6, the 1st week in October. Unfortunately the games scheduled do lack the thrill I did hope for, so I did pick some games close and hopefully entertaining.

The BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 6

Sat. Oct 05
#9 Missouri @ #25 Texas A&M
Last season was the best season for Missouri in a long time, finishing after a bowl win with 11-2. That did earn the Tigers a lot of respect for this season. So far, they did win 4 games, but the last 2 games were very close and not against opponents you would expect such close results against. Boston College seems to be undervalued, so maybe at the end of the season this win will be evaluated different, but Vanderbilt is not in best form and the Tigers escaped at home by 3 in 2 OT.
Now they travel to the Aggies under new management and it's safe to say, it seems the Aggies are moving into the right direction. They lost the opener against Notre Dame (by 10), and then won 4 straight, including wins against Florida and Arkansas. I would bet, they are not on the level as the top SEC teams, but it seems they can give them at least a lot of resistance. Texas is favored by 2.0 points and that does basically describe, how the teams are viewed. I think nobody is sure what to make really out of the Tigers and the Aggies.
This could end in a blowout, if one teams clicks and the other not. Or it can be close, of both teams play on the same level. The 12th man behind them, will the Aggies prevail against a strong Tigers team? Will the Tigers offense finally show up big time?
I just don't know.
I lean towards the Tigers, but I respect the new Aggies and their homefield.
I expect progress on both sides, but I expect also, that Missouri will be a bit stunned by their 1st road game and that directly at the Aggies home.
Aggies win.

#12 Ole Miss @ South Carolina
Ole Miss did hit a wall last week, when they lost at home against Kentucky, something which did not happen since the 70s.
South Carolina had so far a good start and lost only to LSU in a close game. The Vegas line is Ole Miss -9.5, so the betting community sees Ole Miss still as a strong favorite.
Likely that is true.
But the Gamecocks have also a good offense and they have the homefield.
Will that be enough?
Likely not. The key will be the Ole Miss defense. If they can control the line, they will win the game.
I expect a high scoring game, and I hope South Carolina gives Ole Miss something to play for, but I fear that Ole Miss will try to burn the Gamecocks down to make the Kentucky loss forgotten.
Rebels win.

SMU @ #22 Louisville
Very interesting matchup. SMU is new in the ACC and did so far play almost perfect.
With 4-1, the loss against BYU by 3, the team has a good record and is coming from a great win against FSU.
Louisville, they lost against Notre Dame last week and are 3-1.
Vegas has them ahead by 7.0 points, but I'm not so sure the Cardinals, even at home, will be able to control the high-flying SMU offense, which did score in the last 2 games over 100 points against power 5 teams.
If Louisville has to play catchup, they will lose.
I did listen to my guts, and they said ...
Mustangs win.

And some other interesting games:

Sat. Oct 05
Boston College @ Virginia
Virginia is favored by 2.5 points, which I do not really understand. They are 3-1 but lost to Maryland and the other games were not really against power houses.
BC is 4-1 and lost only to Missouri by 3 and won against FSU and MSU. Granted they escaped against WKU by a point, but I think the team is far ahead of schedule and even Virginia will be a good test, I think they can best it.
Eagles win.

South Alabama @ Arkansas State
This could be a fun game.
South Alabama is still in the position to do something big inside the Sun Belt and they have the tools.
They are 2-3, thanks to a bad starts against non-conference foes, but did win against App State.
Arkansas State is 2-2 and they did more or less win the games expected and lost the games expected. That last loss, against Iowa State, was ugly, so likely that explains, why USA is favored by 2.5 points on the road.
I think South Alabama has the offense to actually beat that, the question will be, whether their defense will show up 100% or not.
Jaguars win.

Kansas @ Arizona State
Oh man, I fear Kansas has a down season.
ASU is favored here by 3.0 points and that sounds right.
The Jayhawks are 1-4 and lost already 4 in a row, 3 against opponents, I did think they would beat.
The Sun Devils are 3-1, but that loss against Texas Tech is a bit concerning.
IF Kansas finds their mojo back, they will win here, but I have deep doubts and so I think ASU will get this game at home managed to win.
Sun Devils win.

As a sidenote, the conference realignment stuff is ongoing, but no big news so far, so nothing worth to tell.

'Til next time
Jack6 on BLOCK OF GRANITE

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