2025-10-23 06:53

I slowly getting the feeling we will see on one hand some very different teams winning conferences and eventually getting into the playoffs, compared to last year and even many years in the past, and on the other hand, the same old bunch of teams will play for the national championship.

This weekend, several teams, established as contenders, did fall and that by teams, you might not have on the list as contenders. Whether they will survive in the long run until season end is open, but for now, they are in the spotlight and the ‘old’ contenders did get severe blows on their ambitions, in some cases even such severe that they can start to focus on bowl games if even that.

Enough cryptic stuff, let’s get into some details.

The biggest blow this weekend was likely in a game I did not have on my 3+3 list. On Friday did Louisville travel to Miami and Miami was a 10.5-point favorite to win this game. The Hurricanes were in a terrific season until then and a win here would secure some distance to one of the hottest contenders inside the ACC. Then the game was played and the Miami QB did throw 4 INTs and the team lost for the 1st time in the season a game, unfortune against a direct contender, 21:24.
Louisville had already a loss inside the ACC and needed that win to stay in the hunt, Miami now also has 1 loss and needs to win all remaining games to stay in the hunt.
Right now 3 teams inside the ACC are perfect and only SMU was in the wider contender mix last season, Georgia Tech and Virginia are both teams you normally do not have on a list titled contenders.

Another big blow came inside the AAC, where Memphis visited interims coached UAB and Memphis was ranked prior the game, was a 21.5-point favorite, perfect inside the AAC against a winless inside the AAC UAB team. The Tigers did likely only think on next gameday, where they will face also ranked South Florida, so they were not in the game against UAB and lost 24:31. A devasting loss for Memphis in the hunt for a spot in the AAC Championship game and also in the hunt for the highest ranked non-power-4-champ. The season is not over for the Tigers, but it got a big blow. Lucky for them, most of the leading, so far unbeaten inside the AAC, teams will have to play partially against each other, so Memphis can crawl back to the top. Whether that will be enough for the playoffs is on another level, which became irrelevant, because if they do not win the rest, it doesn’t matter.

The BIG 12 is also in some sort of realignment, with Texas Tech having a great season so far, until they did travel to the desert to play the Arizona State Sun Devils, who won the BIG 12 last year and went to the playoffs. TTU came as 8.5-point favorite and got send home with a 22:26 defeat. Now TTU is like ASU with 1 loss behind the last to perfect teams inside the BIG 12 BYU and Cincinnati! There is hope for the 1-loss teams, since some of the leading teams will play against each other in the remaining season, but right now, only Arizona State is a team which was in the hunt last year and they were from my point of view already an exception last year. I think I did say after Texas and Oklahoma did run for the SEC that the BIG 12 is wide open and it shows, it really is.

We had this weekend again some coaches, who lost their keys to the office, thanks to generous ADs setting them on permanent leave.
The biggest name is Billy Napier, the now former HC of Florida. Everybody was expecting the move, since Florida did lose to South Florida in week week 2, but for whatever reason did the AD wait for the perfect time, which seemed to be a gifted win against Mississippi State last weekend.
Regarding the game we have to say, Florida was favored by 9.5 points and led 23:21 after a MSU score 2 minutes left in the game. The Gators did suck big time and were stopped and forced to punt, so the Bulldogs got the ball back, marched over the field and were already in field goal range, when with 20 ticks left the MSU QB did throw an INT, which did save the Gators (likely), at home.
With that impression in mind did the AD not hesitate and fired Napier in his 4th season with the team, owning him something close to 21 million dollars.
Napier leaves with a 22-23 record, the 1st HC of Florida with a losing record since 1949!
I don’t know whether the ADs of Florida have a bad hand on coaches or the environment is so toxic, but since 15 seasons the selection did not fit and the coaches had to go.

Another HC had to pack his belonging, Jay Norvell was fired from Colorado State after another defeat, this time against Hawai’i. Norvell was in his 4th season at CSU and did not accomplish anything. His record is 18-26. It did look like he got a grip on the program last year, when the team went to a bowl at 8-4, but they lost that bowl game and started the season now 2-5! I never understood the move of Norvell from a good and respected situation at Nevada (33-26) to CSU, but likely that was just money. Now he is out of work. Maybe Nevada wants him back, since they suck even more.

Another crazy game? Sure.

Florida International, in the past season often a team for easy wins on the schedule, did beat Western Kentucky, 25:6. WKU was favored by 9.5 points and did suck big time. The Conference USA is wide open and right now 2 quite new teams from FCS transition are in the lead.
UTEP won their 1st game against an FBS team this season with beating Sam Houston, 35:17. Sam Houston by that still winless this season.
Minnesota won against ranked Nebraska, 24:6. Minnesota is playing under the radar this season and are actually in a big bunch of runner ups inside the BIG10 and 5-2 overall right now.
And Clemson was favored to win against SMU at home, by 5.5 points. Turned out the Tigers were not finished shooting themselves in the foot and lost to SMU 24:35. Beside not playing well the whole game, did the Clemson defense just play terrible in the last quarter and allowed not only too many SMU points, but they did also allow SMU to increase the margin. Clemson, which was handled as contender inside the ACC and nationwide, is now 2-3 inside the ACC and 3-4 overall, while SMU in on track to get back into the ACC championship game.
No upset, still remarkable, since Air Force did win their 1st FBS game this season after a 5-game losing streak, by beating Wyoming, 24:21. Wyoming was in contention a few weeks ago, lost then to UNLV, another contender, and now is 2 losses behind the leading teams and has to focus to get at least the 6 wins for a bowl spot. Rollercoaster season.
Penn State did look OK in their 1st game under interims watch against Iowa on the road. The team did lead until 5 minutes left to play, when Iowa got the ball and scored a TD to take the lead. PSU did get the ball back, but was stopped, losing the game 24:25.
UCLA did win against Maryland, 20:17. Since the change to interims HC is UCLA 3-1 and on a 3-game winning streak. Maybe Tim Skipper, the interims HC, get the job by results?
And as last crazy game prior my reviews I have Stanford, which are also under interims HC reign, winning against Florida State, 20:13, For Stanford that is the 3rd win this season under that harsh conditions (Frank Reich was hired to serve as interims HC, because the actual HC was fired after reports came to public he did bully members of the athletic department, so absolute stranger came into the program and became the HC and so far 3 wins on a team, which did win only 3 games in the past 2 years each) while Florida State has also 3 wins so far with a HC who guided the team to a perfect season 2 years ago. Not sure he will survive the season, to be honest. The AD of FSU did announce they will ‘review’ the program, after the regular season ends. That’s current status. That might shift in the upcoming weeks.

Let’s look at the games I did pick as preview last week and review them.

The BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 8

Sat. Oct 18
#10 LSU @ #17 Vanderbilt
Oh my god, Vanderbilt DID it and won against LSU.
They did not score 1st, but when they did, they took the lead and kept it until the game ended.
LSU was sooooo exploitable on defense by that Vanderbilt offense, that Vandy did just score and score and score and LSU DID try to catch up and they did try to get comebacks going, but that damn defense just was not able to stop the Commodores. And when they did, which was mainly in the 4th quarter, the LSU offense was also ineffective and was unable to turn the game.
At the end did Vanderbilt prevail, and LSU did drop to 2 losses inside the SEC, which is right now a big setback on any ambition towards the SEC Championship and also a major blow towards a spot in the playoffs.
#10 LSU 24 @ #17 Vanderbilt 31 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 11-5

#12 Georgia Tech @ Duke
For 3 quarters, this was open and very defense driven. Both teams did score, a little bit and both were unable to prevent the other team from tying the game.
It was 10:10, when the 4th quarter started and that’s when the game went out of hands for Duke. GT did score a field goal and Duke got the ball and was just stopped after 3 tries.
The Yellow Jackets got the ball again and scored a TD, which did put a lot of pressure on Duke, since in a defense driven game, 10 points, so a 2-score margin, is huge.
Duke did their best and came to a field goal try, but missed that on top, which gave Georgia Tech great field position and helped to eat away the clock and they scored another TD.
The game was lost, Duke did just score a TD in garbage time, tried even an onside kick with roughly a minute left, lost that on top and then the game.
GT did push Duke deep into the mid-level of the ACC, at least for a week, and stayed unbeaten on the top of the ACC.
They are now ranked #7 in the nation, which I don’t think they are really, but that’s not how the system works.
#12 Georgia Tech 27 @ Duke 18 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 12-5

#5 Ole Miss @ #9 Georgia
A shoutout in Athens and it was a close game.
At the half did Ole Miss lead by 1 point, 21:20.
They did extend the lead to 35:26 in the 3rd quarter, but Georgia did answer wight away and came to 35:33.
And here Ole Miss did start to fade. They were unable to score and unable to stop Georgia from scoring, so they fell behind, 35:40.
Next possession, again nothing, while Georgia did squeeze out a field goal, to make it an 8-point game.
The Rebels did try their best, but failed, and lost that crucial game.
Not sure, how the season will play out for both teams, but that was a major stunner for the Rebels and Lane Kiffin, who again did fail to overcome the big teams.
I might be unfair, but THAT game here, was the difference maker this season. Next gameday comes another, from my point of view slightly weaker one, against Oklahoma. But with the loss to Georgia, the season is only 2nd tier, again. To be fair, right now the team has all the chances to reach at least the playoffs and pull an Ohio-State-2024, but I have doubts, we will see that.
Georgia is, as the Rebels, 1 win behind the leading teams, and needs a bit of luck to get back into the driving seat for the SEC Championship game.
#5 Ole Miss 35 @ #9 Georgia 43 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 12-6

And some other interesting games:

Sat. Oct 18
UNLV @ Boise State
UNLV did play great, until the half. They did trail only by 4 at that time, 24:28.
Then did the UNLV offense suck in the 3rd quarter and their defense was unable to keep the Broncos from scoring, which led to a massive lead and at the end of the game to a final score of Broncos winning 56:31.
The level of power was shown, inside the MWC, and right now UNLV is not the top contender.
But they are right behind the Broncos and some other teams and we will eventually see them rising back into the top 2 spots. If they beat Hawai’i late in the season and Boise State beats San Diego State, those 2 teams here might meet again.
Jacks interesting games Score: 12-4

#11 Tennessee @ #6 Alabama
The game went as expected, the Cigars were handed out to the Crimson Tide players.
The game was more or less over at halftime, when Alabama led 23:7.
Tennessee was just not able to get their offense going and Alabama was always able to keep the margin more or less intact.
At the end did Alabama win, 37:20. That lifts the Crimson Tide into the top seats for the Championship game, together right now with Texas A&M.
The season is ongoing, but right now, Alabama looks like a sure thing for the title game and a deeper run in the playoffs.
Jacks interesting games Score: 13-4

#20 USC @ #13 Notre Dame
This was quite interesting until end of the 3rd quarter.
Notre Dame did only lead by 1 point at halftime.
USC did play OK, did force an INT by the Irish and stayed that way in the game.
Then came the Irish out of the locker room and scored a TD and USC was only able to score a field goal but stopped the Irish on their next drive.
USC got the ball back and scored a TD to take the lead.
And then came the bummer, when Notre Dame returned the ensuing kick off 100 yards for a TD and reclaiming the lead.
USC got the ball again, of course, and tried to get over than sting, but did throw and INT, which led to the 4th quarter.
Here Notre Dame did miss a field goal try and it did look like USC would get a chance to come back, but they fumble the drive away, the Irish did score a TD and that did seal the game.
USC was ineffective from here onwards and any try to get back into the game was spoiled by the Notre Dame defense, with a final INT making it official, ND winning 34:24.
By that is Notre Dame now the highest ranked 2-loss team with an outsider perspective to get into the playoffs.
USC can focus on a regular bowl game; I don’t think they will have any say in the BIG10 or national wide.
Jacks interesting games Score: 14-4

That’s it for gameday 8.
The standings of the conferences do start to take shape, and the list of contenders is shrinking, but still there are many, many runners-up, I don’t want to mention all, once I start making list of the conferences.
Maybe next week.

So, let’s have a look on the games of the upcoming weekend.

The BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 9

Sat. Oct 25
#8 Ole Miss @ #13 Oklahoma
This is more or less an elimination game. The loser is very likely out of the SEC championship race and also quite likely out of the playoff spot race.
Let’s face it, the highest ranked team national wide with 2 losses is Notre Dame at #12, the next is Tennessee at #17. With 12 spots for the playoffs and a guaranteed spot for a power 4 champion, regardless the rank, likely only top 11 teams will get a spot and the list of 1 loss teams is still long.
And both teams here have 1 loss, and the loser will drop to 2 losses.
Oklahoma is favored at home by 4.5 points.
Whether that is OK, I’m not sure.
Ole Miss features a very good offense and only a team which does field a great defense and/or a good, if not great, offense can challenge them.
Last weekend did Ole Miss lose the 1st time, mostly because the offense was stopped in the 4th quarter and their defense, which is not the best in the league, was unable to shut down the opponent, when needed most.
But Oklahoma is not Georgia. They did not play a team like Ole Miss, so far. They lost to Texas 2 weeks ago in a close game and Texas is not that powerful as expected. Hence, home field is great, but is it enough to stop the Rebels?
I have doubts.
What I don’t know is, whether Ole Miss did put so much in the game against Georgia, that this game here features an exhausted Rebels teams against a motivated Sooners team, or the Rebels are furious to overcome that one bad loss of the season and they will play like devils.
I think the later one is more likely and pick ...
Rebels win.

#15 Missouri @ #10 Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is top 10, I have problems to believe that.
And they have the chance to even get higher.
The main reason for that success (for the past 2 seasons) is their QB, who plays like there is no tomorrow, even I doubt he will get much NFL consideration in the future.
But that doesn’t matter, he plays great at college level and wins games for Vandy.
They face Missouri, which also has a great run for the past seasons and has ambitions for this season.
Same situation for both teams as Oklahoma and Ole Miss, 1 loss so far and the winner will be still in the mix for all the fun post season actions and the loser can likely start to focus on those other, regular bowls.
Missouri lost a crucial game against Alabama 2 weeks ago, Vandy lost against Alabama 3 weeks ago.
Vegas can’t make out a clear favorite but has actually Vandy favored by 2.5 points.
Wow. I respect the home factor here and likely does Vegas the same.
Whether that is enough to overcome the likely slightly better Tigers team, I don’t know.
Likely it will come down to the Commodores QB.
If he has a great day, Vandy will win.
If not, I think Missouri has more weapons and will win in a close one.
What should I do ... I guess in doubt for the home team.
Commodores win (2 weeks in a row! Oh no!)

#3 Texas A&M @ #20 LSU
I guess nobody is doubting the cut of the last HC and the big buyout of 70+ million anymore, because the new HC has Texas A&M on the peak of the SEC and so far, no end in sight.
Mike Elko came from Duke and did, what most coaches can’t do, or did not do, turned the program into a national contender in just 1+ seasons.
The final judgement is open, of course, but the team does look much better now.
LSU tried a similar move several seasons ago and Brian Kelley did have good seasons with LSU, but the expectations are higher.
And this season it looks like the team will not perform according to the expectations, again.
To make this clear, everything less than a National Championship is a small failure, no SEC Championship a bigger one and if Alabama wins on top something, the season is bad.
And guess what, since Kelly came, they did win a lot of games, but no conference and no national championship. Only Alabama did not prevail also, so no complete failure, I guess.
This season the team is at 2 losses already, which means, they will likely not be a part of the SEC Contenders and also not in the playoffs.
A win against Texas A&M would at least boost the schedule results and if it gets close and a 2-loss teams would sneak into the playoffs, THAT would help.
So, do or die for LSU and lucky them, it’s played in death value deep in purple and gold country.
By that, Texas A&M is only favored by 2.5 points.
I personally think, the Aggies are way better and will expose the Tigers, which offense is not the best this season.
Granted their defense is able, if concentrated, but did also lack focus in the past few weeks.
I pick Texas A&M and hope for a close game, because I think they will be slightly better on every unit and will grind down LSU in 4 quarters.
Aggies win.

And some other interesting games:

Sat. Oct 25
#18 South Florida @ Memphis
Until last weekend, this game would have been the battle of the unbeaten and most likely strongest contenders inside the AAC.
Then did Memphis lose to so-far-bad-playing-UAB and we have a game with a little less drama. But only a little.
Memphis did become under Ryan Silverfield in the past 5 years a very good team. Or let’s say, the team did stay on a high level. The only thing Silverfield did not get done so far is to win a Championship. In the past 2 seasons, the best under his watch so far, the team did lose 2 games inside the conference and failed by that to get to the top.
This season it did look good so far, until the team did play really bad against UAB and we all are second guessing the team, again.
And the host the hottest team inside the conference with South Florida being THE chat of the season. Alex Golesh does guide the team in his 3rd season and so far were the results mid-level, but this season ... they are great. Winning against Boise State (last seasons MWC Champ), against Florida (SEC team with deep pockets, supposed to win more games this season), lost to Miami (considered a national championship contender), and won all following games to weaker teams, being now 6-1 on top of the AAC.
Vegas does give USF the credits and makes them a 4.5-point favorite to win here.
Memphis is not bad at home, so that is from my point of view a statement, or a loss of faith.
I don’t know, what to expect here.
South Florida has taken on the big programs and did win some games, they were underdogs in. And they did win the rest quite convincing. So, a strong team.
Memphis did look fine, until last week. But did UAB just play good under an interims coach and is not that bad as the former coach did let them look like? Or was that a trap game for Memphis and we will see a furious Tigers team storming the field?
I don’t know.
If Memphis can stop USFs offense, this will be interesting. If not, it will be a disaster for the home team.
I s e l e c t USF, because I did lose some faith also.
Bulls win.

#25 Michigan @ Michigan State
The ‘Battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy’ between the 2 teams from Michigan. This season it could be interesting again.
Michigan won the last 3 meetings and does on paper field the better team, but played on Spartans ground, with a Spartans team, which seems to get finally into the right direction (not losing almost every game) this could become an intensive match.
Jonathan Smith was hired for last season away from Oregon State and had the Spartans at 5-7 last year and 3-4 this year. He needed 4 seasons to turn the Beavers into a winner, so maybe he will need some more time here. The only bad thing right now is, the Spartans are 0-4 inside the BIG10 and those games were not even close.
The Wolverines on the other side got Sherrone Moore promoted from within last year and the results were 8-5 and 5-2, with losses to Oklahoma and USC, so far.
I think many did expect some sort of continuation of the last great streak the Wolverines had, peaked with the national championship in 2023. But that did not happen, so far. It will also not happen this season, for sure.
But they need to win this for pride and to get to the bigger bowls and to show progress.
Michigan is favored by 14.5 points; I can see a big game for Michigan or a close one.
I could imagine a tough one, since both teams are usually more motivated in this game.
Can I see the Spartans win? Not really, but I hope for a close game.
Wolverine win.

Houston @ #24 Arizona State
The losing team here will be very likely out of contention for the BIG 12 championship game. Both teams are 1 loss behind the 3 perfect teams so far and with then 2 losses, the losing team will have a lot of ground to cover and needs a lot of luck to get back into the considerations.
Willie Fritz is in his 2nd year with Houston, and it seems he gets the team into the right direction. A win here would be great for the program.
Arizona State as reigning BIG 12 Champ would love to return to the playoffs and to the championship game, but did fail already once.
Scheduled in the desert, this game is given as favorite to the Sun Devils, by 6.5 points.
That’s a lot, from my point of view.
Likely fair, but I hope for a close game and honestly a Cougars win, but I think the Sun Devils will prevail
Sun Devils win.

'Til next time
Jack6 on BLOCK OF GRANITE

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