2017-09-21 17:43

Slowly we move into conference game mode.
In the past the first 4 weeks were dominated by non-conference-games, but many conferences have only 3 non-conference games now so week 4 is now for some conferences are starting point to have more conference games than non-conference games.

Still, this week does not feature many high-ranked team facing each other.

I selected this 3 games as the BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP 3 GAMES FOR WEEK 4

Sat, Sept. 23
#7 Washington @ Colorado
Washington has so far not shown much, except they can win against weak teams.
Rutgers, a FCS team and Fresno State did all lose so far against the Huskies and now the Huskies face Colorado, on the road.
I think Chris Petersen has made Washington relevant again, but are they strong enough to win the PAC12? Not sure, but likely.
That game against the Buffaloes will be a good prove of concept.
If they beat them, and a clear win would be good, they can take on everyone.
If they lose, they might miss something, at least this season.
The thing is, Colorado is not that good as last season (or teams are better prepared than last season?) and won so far against Colorado State, Texas State and a FCS team.
Mike MacIntyre did wonders with the Buffaloes in the short time but the team lacks a bit the strength it had last season, so it seems.
The only thing which is much in their favor is the home field advantage.
No team is over performing more at home than Colorado, based on last seasons data of cause.
Vegas sees the Huskies up front with 11.5, which is more than I would give them.
I'm expecting either a close game, or a blow out, that depends on the Huskies O and the Buffaloes D.
I suspect the D to be weaker than last season, and over the quarters to become weaker and weaker, but that's just gut feeling.
Overall I expect a Huskies win, regardless the flow of the game.
Huskies win.

Sat, Sept. 23
#16 TCU @ #6 Oklahoma State
The Cowboys are 13 point favorite in this one.
That's a lot.
Does TCU deserve that?
Not sure.
TCU won against Arkansas, Oklahoma State doesn't have such a signature win, so far.
But they play at home and they have an explosive offense.
The basic idea is, I think, that TCU will have to play catchup most of the time and their offense will be slower and not that good equipped to counter the Cowboys the whole game long.
13 points are in those dimensions not much.
Expect a game like 45-32, so lots of points and if in those games something does not click, 13 points are gone faster than you can curse the gods of football to let that happen.
I did pick OSU, simply because they have a good offense at home.
Cowboys win.

Sat, Sept. 23
#17 Mississippi State @ #11 Georgia
It's Bully vs Uga and Uga is a 5.5 point favorite to win this dog fight.
The biggest question mark for me is, can the MSU Bulldogs carry that performance against LSU over to the Georgia Bulldogs?
Kirby Smarts team did so far not really convince me to be the next big SEC team or to be the favorite to win the SEC.
They are 3-0, but against so-so-teams and will now face MSU.
Dan Mullan has at least a win against LSU in the pocket and also a 3-0 start.
The home factor will be big, but if you can win at LSU, you should be able to win in Athens, right?
I think it will be a close game, fought until the end, but I pick Bully to top Uga in a closing bite we will remember.
Bulldogs win (MSU of cause ...)

Other interesting games:

Sat, Sept. 23
#22 San Diego State @ Air Force
The Aztecs earned their ranking on their upset win over the Stanford Cardinals. This did also make them favorite in this game against the Falcons, by 3 points.
The Falcons have lost against Michigan last week on the road, but SDSU is far from being that level and they come to town, so ... ?
I pick the Falcons to win the game at home.
Their defense was good enough to keep the Wolverines in check quite often and their offense kept them in the game.
Should work better against the Aztecs.
Falcons win.

Sat, Sept. 23
#20 Florida @ Kentucky
Tough one. Florida, if playing right should be better, but when was the last game they did play right?
I mean merciless right, using every advantage they can get?
Kentucky plays at home and those 1.5 points in favor of Florida is in Football nothing, except that Vegas sees Florida ahead.
Well, I don't.
Wildcats win.

Sat, Sept. 23
#5 USC @ Cal
Very interesting game.
I'm tempted to pick Cal for a win here.
USC has all the talent, but they seem to lack something important.
Still Vegas line is -17.0 for USC, so an upset would be big.
My heart wishes the Bears the best, but my mind says the Trojans will win this, somehow.
Trojans win.

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