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| Main / Sea Devils / Sea Devils 1.1 season 31 Search Forum | |
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PJRAVENS
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posted: 2018-10-01 09:33:21 (ID: 100133119) Report Abuse |
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marinarul10 wrote:
Sorry guys! Just a moment of frustration watching live being out scored 26-0 in the second half...JohnnyAce should be much more frustrated than me.... I`m really sorry about that! Big congrats to PJ and his Ravens are in my eyes the team of the season without a doubt!!! Good luck all in the playoffs!!! It seems to me that anyone can go all the way!!! Thanks Marinarul I can understand your frustration after a totally unexpected comeback and I am happy to receive your congrats in the end. You are a Sailor and you know better than me that a stupid torpedo can sink a strong battleship, it is only a matter of probability. According to this statistics https://redzoneaction.org/football/index.php?page=community&subpage=thread&thread_id=100018342&startpage=1#post100129628 Difference in rating between 10,1 - 15% 96 games played - better team won 87 (91%) I had less than 9% of probability to succeeded. You played 33 official games this season with 3 loss so 9.09% no reason to be worried about. You are doing a great job and you will have a great season too. "Cangrats PJ, i really hope you do something magic and is not just random!!!! " I did not understand what do you mean when you are talking about random. Are you talking about situation not managed through the playbook? Of course I cannot manage a 26-0 comeback before the game happens and so of course random played a very big role. In my playbook I tried to manage some situation anyway. In our previous match you used 27 times SG2WR in passing plays and in 3 down situation you switched to SG2WR rush. This cost me 1 TD and 2 First down. I put a rule on 3 down against your SG2WR using 5-3-3 you switched your playbook to pass in the mean time and you fooled me again. Both tried to manage a situation but in the end the result is a "weighted" random. I have two rules in order to kick a FG in 2nd and 4th quarter under 30 second time left any down. I managed this kind of situation but achieving the result is another story. I got 6 point that they turned to be enough. This is of course random. I have a set of rules to manage the situation on 4th quarter when I am behind and with few times remaining on the clock choosing always passing in order to gain as many yards as possible in short time. It is an "all in" strategy nothing to loose. Your team has the 1st defence against run (now 2nd) but only 24th against pass. My last drive it is a piece of work but of course the result it is random I got only a sack and I was very very very lucky. Your team allowed 16.82 average points and achieve 38.24 average points in regular season. I did 10 point over your average but in my opinion is your offense that underperform a lot. Your QB rate in the second half was 44.89 In the second half in 8 drives you got 5 three and out 55 yards only. In 3rd down you tried 7 pass 5 incomplete only 1 First down achieved I can choose a defence but I can not control your QB rate so much, so it is random. We are in the same division so you will have plenty of times to took a big amount of very well deserver revenges. And just to finish hoping to make you smile you have to complain with ptdoc2017 and his predictions... posted: 2018-08-21 12:24:48 (ID: 100132049) Report Abuse A lot of good games this week: Baltimore Ravens vs DC Washingtonians The Battle of the Beltway! For those not familiar with American geography, Washington DC and Baltimore are less than an hour's drive apart making these two cities natural rivals. On paper, this looks like a DCW win, but I just have a feeling this ends in an upset. and he crushed my team 64-7 ! posted: 2018-09-26 00:06:15 (ID: 100132949) Report Abuse With one game left, the updated playoff picture: AC: 1. Munich Runners (even with a loss, the big PD means a lock) 2. Constanta Sailors 3. Konjarnik High Towers 4. Schrodinger Cats (again, large PD makes it very unlikely Gdansk or East Dillon catch him) 5. Wasteland Wolves 6. noTown mYsTics (despite being behind Baltimore Ravens and Naprozd Marsz! today, the Ravens end against marinaul and Grimslaw has to play Buziano while Johnny gets the Vaxjo Gladiators AFC.) |
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ashlee
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posted: 2018-10-01 15:08:59 (ID: 100133128) Edits found: 1 Report Abuse |
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@PJRAVEN,
You deserved the win, congrats and good job. No need to justify your achievement. You were predicted to be a rising team in forum since last season. Your team had grown, you had learnt from mistakes, reflected and become stronger. Your rise and victories are not unexpected.  Last edited on 2018-10-01 15:09:50 by ashlee |
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| posted: 2018-10-01 18:41:17 (ID: 100133133) Report Abuse | |
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Yes, PJ, everyone knows how wrong I am with my predictions. Some would say my awful predictions are bulletin board material (right, Worpex?)
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marinarul10
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posted: 2018-10-02 01:23:58 (ID: 100133145) Report Abuse |
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ashlee wrote:
@PJRAVEN, You deserved the win, congrats and good job. No need to justify your achievement. You were predicted to be a rising team in forum since last season. Your team had grown, you had learnt from mistakes, reflected and become stronger. Your rise and victories are not unexpected. @PJRAVENS I totally agree with this! It`s just me who sometimes i`m looking too much for logic in anything (in RL too) .... |
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PJRAVENS
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posted: 2018-10-02 06:39:35 (ID: 100133146) Report Abuse |
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marinarul10 wrote:
ashlee wrote:
@PJRAVEN, You deserved the win, congrats and good job. No need to justify your achievement. You were predicted to be a rising team in forum since last season. Your team had grown, you had learnt from mistakes, reflected and become stronger. Your rise and victories are not unexpected. @PJRAVENS I totally agree with this! It`s just me who sometimes i`m looking too much for logic in anything (in RL too) .... Thanks Ashlee and Marinarul
Marinarul, I can understand you very well for me it is the same. In this kind of games all is based on a very well balanced sum of "weighted" random event. There is a big amount of logic in this game and in the end the most probable event happens but not always!. I know only one game 100% logic and 0% random: chess! In RZA for a subset of event, despite we do not know the math, we can try to understand what is happening. For example we can check an OL vs DL block success rate compared the two players skills and try to create a personal idea of which skills are more important and try to work on it and see if the result will be better. I like very much this type of situation. Otherwise there are other cases like a QB that for a totally unexpected reason, from a point time in the game performs 44.8 .... This make me nervous too... because seems totally illogic and not related to the stuff we know (skills , energy level ...) and that we can control and try to fix in some way. Maybe trying to fix it we go in the wrong direction ... but at least we have the perception we are trying to fix! Maybe the explanation of the poor performance is only a matter of probability maybe there is a logic we do not know that drive in that direction. The same is when we are talking about injuries. If a player has an healthy skill level we can accept better an injury because we can have an idea of the probability ... on the contrary if we have not any information in case of an injury we start complaining with the random! In the and of the story the beauty of this game is that despite we do not know what happened to your QB your whole season success rate is 9% like the statistics says! |
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marinarul10
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posted: 2018-10-02 15:40:01 (ID: 100133157) Report Abuse |
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Yep...this is the problem i`m playing chess and love to win!!!
In RZA my problem is this, till now this season i had 12 games that i could possibly lost( not bots or newer teams).... in those 12 games i had - 5 games against 77+ overall rating teams and end up with 5 wins..... - 7 games against 77 or lower overall rating teams where i was lucky to end up with only 3 losses cause i have beat KHT in the last second of the game with a Hail Mary touchdown... so against "weaker" teams i`m under 50% if i consider a loss the game against KHT ?!?!? Now i`m wondering, am i doing something wrong? ...playbook, team build, coaches, something else???... but than how come i have beat 5 ex Elite teams ?1?1? Conclusion, knowing that in all of these 12 games my best team was on the field and in none of these games i had big TC,PC or morale problems, i can only strongly believe that random had a major impact and my actions almost none impact in these results!!! So even if i will have a big run in supercup or in league playoffs i`m afraid it won`t be because of me..... |
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| posted: 2018-10-02 17:15:41 (ID: 100133158) Report Abuse | |
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I agree with marinarul that bigger upsets seem more common. I'm 3-2 against teams with 80%+ rating despite being at 74% or less all season.
I'm just tossing a thought on this: the team rating system is flawed. I'm not sure how it is calculated, but other than the QB position, I sub pretty liberally to keep my guys better rested and to spread the EXP around. This probably makes my rating a bit lower than it should be if I just played my stars all game. |
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| posted: 2018-10-02 19:27:23 (ID: 100133160) Report Abuse | |
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Congrats PJ for the win
 good game  |
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| posted: 2018-10-02 19:35:08 (ID: 100133161) Report Abuse | |
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Yesterday my team lost against Marife in SC. I spent a crazy amount of time with weak internet connection on a special PB that had a major flaw. And I saw it as soon as I was watching the match. And it was frustrating. At the same time I believe that Marife scouted my team well or that what I did catered more to his strengths that I imagined.
What I am trying to say is, yes, there is a random factor. I believe there is a psychological factor that might change from quarter to quarter just like in a real match. And there are logical consequences. All in all I like this game because my team is able to win against the best team in RZA. And it can lose to teams that look like much weaker. Just as in RL. This being said, congratulations to everyone making the next round ! PJ - good luck ! |
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PJRAVENS
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posted: 2018-10-03 08:40:46 (ID: 100133179) Report Abuse |
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marinarul10 wrote:
Yep...this is the problem i`m playing chess and love to win!!! In RZA my problem is this, till now this season i had 12 games that i could possibly lost( not bots or newer teams).... in those 12 games i had - 5 games against 77+ overall rating teams and end up with 5 wins..... - 7 games against 77 or lower overall rating teams where i was lucky to end up with only 3 losses cause i have beat KHT in the last second of the game with a Hail Mary touchdown... so against "weaker" teams i`m under 50% if i consider a loss the game against KHT ?!?!? Now i`m wondering, am i doing something wrong? ...playbook, team build, coaches, something else???... but than how come i have beat 5 ex Elite teams ?1?1? Conclusion, knowing that in all of these 12 games my best team was on the field and in none of these games i had big TC,PC or morale problems, i can only strongly believe that random had a major impact and my actions almost none impact in these results!!! So even if i will have a big run in supercup or in league playoffs i`m afraid it won`t be because of me..... In my opinion you are not using correctly the information given by the overall value of a team. Pete said in this post https://redzoneaction.org/football/index.php?page=community&subpage=thread&thread_id=100018508&startpage=3 posted: 2018-07-16 15:01:51 (ID: 100130691) On a bar of abilities from 0 to 100%, the 65 rated team is at around 90%, and the 75 rated team at around 92%. Why should team "75" not get beaten by team "65" every single day? Keep in mind: a "zero rated team" has not "zero abilities" here in RZA... We can assume that a team with overall of 85% has 94.5% ability and a team with overall of 95% has 97% and a team with overall of 100% has 100% ability So when you compare your team (overall of 85%) with - a team with overall of 75 you are not talking about 10 point but 2 or 2.5 - a team with overall of 65 you are not talking about 20 point but 5 According to this statistics https://redzoneaction.org/football/index.php?page=community&subpage=thread&thread_id=100018342&startpage=1#post100129628 When you play againstt team over 77% of overall point you can score 59% Difference in rating between 2,1% - 5% 253 games played - better team won 150 (59%) When you play against team below 77% of overall point you can score 76% Difference in rating between 5,1% - 10% 259 games played - better team won 196 (76%) but 24% is not a so low value and you are talking about only 7 games ... nothing for a statistical measure. But the main point in my opinion is that "overall" is a measure of the potential of a team not his strength Your team has a passing value of 82% It depends of QB + WR + OL ability. For a moment let me assume the QB + WR are the most important in this math. You have a 4* QB + 1 4.5* WR + 4 4* WR What happen if you buy another 4* QB? I bet that passing value will rise above 82% You can rotate he two QB and save energy, you are stronger in case of injury but in the end you can use only one QB a time. Perhaps another 4* QB could be only a waste of money. If I took a look to your overall I should think that in the second case you are stronger in passing play, but it is not so true. Schrodingers Cats have a passing value of 74.7% They have 2 4* QB + 2 4* WR There is difference with your team only when you use 4 WR (SG4WR and SB Spread) of course you can rotate the WR ... If you both use mainly offensive formations with 2 WR where is the difference? Schrodingers Cats in regular season passed for 6634 yards with 46 TD Constanta Sailors in regular season passed for 4156 yards with 50 TD How do you explain this ? Your passing rate is 7.3 % upper. We are talking about 2500 yards! The potential is one thing translate the potential into success is another. You can have an engine with very high HP, but the top/average speed of your car in a circuit is another thing. Of course this is only my opinion and if other managers want add comments I appreciate. |
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