RedZoneAction.org Blog, tagged with Block of Granite
2025-10-16 07:52

Man, this season the craziness is hitting some new records.

Another 3 coaches got the axe after this weekend and at least one is a bit surprising. But it shows that in this new era of NIL and instant success the period of mediocrity after some success is very short and regardless the price, a change has to be announced to secure the support of the fans and the boosters.

Here are the 3 critical games, which led to 3 pink slips.

The 1st is not really spectacular, with Florida Atlantic (FAU) beating University of Alabama Birmingham (UAB) 53:33. FAU was favored by 5.5 points, was 2-3 prior the game and was looking for an uplift inside the conference. UAB was 2-3 also prior the game and hand not won a conference game so far this season. A big 1st quarter (21:0) did help FAU to have the lead and to keep the lead throughout the game, even when UAB did start scoring. Because FAU did match basically every point UAB did put on the board, thanks to the UAB defense, which was just unable to stop the attacks. Well, obviously not a good start at 2-4 after the game and the program decided to step away from their HC, Trent Dilfer in his 3rd season. If that name does ring a bell, yes that’s the former NFL QB winning a Superbowl with the Ravens. He came 2023 after coaching some high school in Tennessee with great success from 2019 to 2022. At UAB, his success was limited, went from 4-8, to 3-9 to now 2-4. This firing was not that surprising, only the timing was a bit early.

The 2nd one is also not that surprising, I did hint it a bit over the past few blog entries. Wake Forest was favored by 1.5 points when they visited Oregon State and the game went down disastrous for the Beavers, with Wake Forest winning 39:14 and the Beavers did only score in garbage time in the 4th quarter. Prior the game was Wake Forest 3-2 and Oregon State was 0-6. Then after the game, at 0-7 and a humiliating defeat later, the Beavers administration decided to cut off their current HC, Trent Bray in his 2nd season. He came in as hire from within as former DC of the Beavers, when the very successful last HC was hired by Michigan State. Well, the Beavers did drop heavily in production after the change and finished 5-7 and they are now 0-7, with no positive progression in sight. A tough cut, given the time period given the HC to adjust, but shows do fit with my earlier experiences that programs get mad, if their beloved great results of the past are not matched by the successor. It usually takes 2 to 5 HC until an administration adjusts eventually to the return to times prior the great successful period, when their HC was so good, it was instantly hired by a better paying program.

The 3rd firing is that one firing, which did shock me the most. It’s understandable and maybe I would have done the same, in the same situation, but I’m not really sure. The game was Northwestern visiting Penn State. Northwestern was 3-2 at that moment, Penn State was 3-2 also.
The difference was, Northwestern had won only to quite bad playing programs so far and lost clearly to Oregon and Tulane. Penn State was top of the class 2 weeks ago, lost then to Ohio State at home by an inch, and lost then to UCLA on the road. Bad, but could be just a booboo.
Penn State was favored at home against Northwestern by 20.5 points.
So, everyone was surprised, when the team did lose to the Wildcats, 21:22.
Now they lost 3 in a row. Not nice at all. Concerning? Yes.
But we are talking about a change in the HC rank for a coach who was with the team since 2014. James Franklin has won the conference with Penn State (2016), he did win double digit in the past 3 seasons and the team did go to the BIG10 Championship game last year (lost) and went to the playoffs (semis). I would say, that this guy knows how to coach. Yes, 3 losses are not great and that’s a good start for a serious talk and a meeting, but instead the program did fire the guy with a paycheck of roughly 49 million dollars, the 2nd highest buyout of all time.
I have to say, one thing on Franklin always was concerning, his record against top rated teams. The teams over the years did never perform very well against top teams, like the stunning record of 4-21 against TOP10 teams. That is concerning and does not help, when you want to win a National Championship game. Still, Penn State needs to find a better man now, which reminds me of Nebraska, who did fire Bo Pelini in 2014 after a record of 67-27, because he did lose constantly in the BIG10 Championship game and did not lift the team to a National Championship. Since then did Nebraska look for the better guy and found Mike Riley (3 seasons, 19-19), Scott Frost (4 seasons and a bit, 16-31) and Matt Rhule (Now in his 3rd season, at 17-14, but this season on a 5-1 start). So you see, it’s might not be easy to find THAT better man.

Bu hey, that’s the new era of college football. If you don’t win, you do not serve the program well and you are always expendable, regardless the costs. It will be interesting to see, who they will hire to succeed James Franklin and it will be interesting to see, where Franklin will land, because for sure he will get another shot.

Another crazy game? Sure.

Colorado State did beat Fresno State, 49:21. The Bulldogs were favored by 5.5 points, but lost against CSU, which did until then only win against an FCS team.
USC did host ranked Michigan and won, 31:13. The 1st loss for Michigan inside the BIG10, which gives then an instant disadvantage in the standings.
Colorado did finally got their 1st win inside the BIG 12, and surprisingly that was against ranked Iowa State, 24:17. Iowa State did look like a real contender 2 weeks ago, but did lose now 2 in a row, which makes it almost impossible for them to get into the Championship game.
After FSU did battle Miami last week to a loss by roughly a score they got ranked at #25. Then they did host Pitt at home to lose 31:34. They lost now 3 in a row.
UCLA did win against Michigan State, 38:13. That firing of the coach seems to work wonders in L.A.
In the battle of the Kellerkinder (german for 2 teams at the buttom of the standing, word exact translation would be basement kids) did Eastern Michigan beat Northern Illinois 16:10.
Kansas State did win against TCU, 41:28 and tries to get back into the top ranks of the BIG 12 (which is still a long way).
Marshall did beat Old Dominion, 48:24. Right now the Sun Belt divisions are wide open, we will see, whether step by step all unbeaten teams do get a loss here and there.
Iowa did find their offense and defense to beat Wisconsin, 37:0. Man Wisconsin does really looks not that sharp this season at 2-4 and losing 4 in a row now. Heartland trophy stays in Iowa and we might see a coaching change soon in Wisconsin?

Let’s look at the games I did pick as preview last week and review them.

The BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 7

Sat. Oct 11
#1 Ohio State @ #17 Illinois
You can’t win games, if you turn over the ball too often, especially not, if you are the underdog.
Illinois did that 3 times and Ohio State got 21 points out of that.
Try to make up on that against a better team (at least on paper). It’s almost impossible and for Illinois it did prove to BE impossible.
The team did lose more or less in the 1st half and any try to get back into the driver seat in the 2nd half was countered by Ohio State to grind the game out with a 2+ score margin.
For Ohio State, this was important, since it did lift the team into the top seats of the conference and with their schedule left, chances are good they stay there. But of course they can do a booboo and fall from grace also, so nothing is decided.
For Illinois this was for sure another setback and the team will likely end up in the middle of the conference. But given the past years and decades, that would be a good season, if they can go to a bowl. And it will likely be a good one.
#1 Ohio State 34 @ #17 Illinois 16 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 10-3

#8 Alabama @ #14 Missouri
I had picked the Tigers and the Tigers were close to win this, but unfortune they did not.
In the 1st half it was quite clear that Alabama had the edge, but only a little bit. They went into the locker rooms with Bama leading 17:10.
Then came Alabama out of the looker room and fumble their 1st drive away, which gave Missouri the chance to tie the game at 17.
Long time nothing did follow and only Alabama was at the end of the 3rd able to score a field goal.
Missouri did answer with an INT, which led to a missed field goal by Alabama.
Yes, I know. Not pretty.
One Tigers drive later did Alabama then score a TD, which Missouri was able to counter, so still 3 points margin.
The Tigers did stop Alabama and got the ball, went from their red zone to mid field and then threw an INT to seal the loss.
For Alabama an important win inside the conference, Missouri on the other hand got a setback, but I think they will recover, and we might see them even in the playoffs.
#8 Alabama 27 @ #14 Missouri 24 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 10-4

#7 Indiana @ #3 Oregon
One of the highlights of the gameday, if not THE highlight and the game was for offense fans a blast.
Many, including me, did favor Oregon, but Indiana did give them something to chew on.
They did score first with a field goal and when Oregon did score a TD, they did answer with a TD also.
The 1st quarter was over, and Oregon was behind.
Oregon did then tie the game at 10, missed later a field goal and allowed Indiana to score a field goal at the half to take the lead into the break, 13:10 Hoosiers.
Late in the 3rd did then Oregon tie the game and Indiana did score a TD. BAM!
The 3rd quarter was over and Indiana was still in the lead.
So Oregon has to turn this in the 4th.
They did intercept Indiana and ran it to the house to tie the game at 20!
Wooohoooo! But those damn farmers from the Indiana did score a TD right afterwards!
And then did Oregon stumble by throwing a pick by themselves and Indiana got another 3 out of it and suddenly it was a 2-score game.
And Oregon did throw the game away on the next drive on the 1st play with another INT.
At the end was Oregon defeated by the Indiana defense.
For Oregon a major blow, but they have the right schedule to likely recover, at least to get into the playoffs.
Indiana has to stay sharp, if they want to go where no team from that campus went since 1967, to the BIG 10 Championship game and win it.
#7 Indiana 30 @ #3 Oregon 20 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 10-5

And some other interesting games:

Sat. Oct 11
#6 Oklahoma @ Texas
Honestly, if I would have been in the stadium here (neutral site in Texas), and I would have been a Texas fan, I would have been worried on my team after the 1st half.
They lost to Florida a week before and were supposed to be a top contender with that Manning kid as QB and the team had issues with Oklahoma the whole 1st half. At the break the teams did split with the Sooners leading 6:3.
But fortunately, someone found the offense playbook in the locker room and the defense did step up a bit, so OU was zeroed out in the 2nd half and Texas did put up 20 points to win the Red River Rivalry 23:6.
I guess the pressure on the Longhorns is now a bit less regarding ‘will they suck’ and they can concentrate on the next games a bit more optimistic?
We will see, they have 3 ranked teams in November right now in the schedule.
Oklahoma did get a big hit by that loss and their remaining schedule is a nightmare starting end of October. I doubt they will be a contender this year.
Jacks interesting games Score: 9-4

#18 BYU @ Arizona
BYU is likely not the best team inside the BIG 12, but they still are undefeated, after they did battle Arizona and came up victorious.
The team had a hangover in 2nd quarter and was trailing by 3 at the break.
Then came a no-scoring quarter and in the 4th did then, after Arizona did go ahead by 10, BYU pull their stuff together and punched the game into OT.
There did both teams settle for a field goal in the 1st OT and in the 2nd did BYU score a TD and Arizona not, so BYU won 33:27 in 2 OT.
BYU has all the undefeated teams on their schedule, so the seating of the Championship game will likely come down to some sort of tiebreaker. Open is, whether BYU will stay undefeated in that process, or not.
I think Arizona, with 2 BIG 12 losses is for now no longer a contender, just a team, which might make live uncomfortable for all the contenders and wanna bees.
Jacks interesting games Score: 10-4

#21 Arizona State @ Utah
Man, Utah must have been frustrated and did let it all out on ASU.
The Utes did win this one-sided game, 42:10.
With that win Utah is one loss behind the top contenders.
I still don’t know whether they will be really contenders or just happy to be now near the sunlight.
Time will tell.
The Sun Devils did fall from the unbeaten team ranks and with that performance, won’t be contenders.
Jacks interesting games Score: 15-4

That’s it for gameday 7.
The conferences start to take some sort of shape, but right now, the lost of could-be and should-be is way to long to bother with it, from my point of view.

So, let’s have a look on the games of the upcoming weekend.

The BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 8

Sat. Oct 18
#10 LSU @ #17 Vanderbilt
I’m not sure, this did happen in the past whatever years.
LSU against Vanderbilt is a ranked vs ranked game and on top is Vanderbilt the favorite!
According to an CBS article is Vanderbilt the 1st time favored against LSU since 1948! And they are favored against a ranked opponent since 1978, with 176 games since then as underdog.
That’s still not the answer to my question, but at least you see, how unusual this is.
Right now, Vandy is a 2.5-point favorite to beat LSU.
The Tigers are 5-1 and lost only to Ole Miss, 2 weeks ago. Last week did the team beat South Carolina.
Vanderbilt is also 5-1 and was only beaten by Alabama last week.
They have also beaten South Carolina, with a bigger margin on the road than LSU did beat them at home.
But such compares are a bit misleading, since games do develop themselves by the special circumstance on gameday.
Still, impressive record by Vanderbilt this season.
Personally, I don’t think either team will have a say at the end of the season on the SEC Championship and on a playoff spot.
Granted, the winner here will have a better shot on either of those season goals, while the loser will drop in the ranks and standings.
It’s do or die for both teams.
By head wants to pick LSU, because it’s LSU and the other team is ‘only Vandy’, but we have to be fair and acknowledge that the Commodores did so far do a good job to play with the top teams and LSU did show flaws, so it will come down to LSUs offense vs Vandy defense.
I lean on my gut feeling and pick ...
Commodores win (oh no!)

#12 Georgia Tech @ Duke
Not a ranked vs ranked game, but a very important game inside the ACC and if you would have told me that just a season ago, I would have smiled and called you nuts.
Why?
Because we have Georgia Tech on one side, a program, which was for the past 10 seasons not in good shape. Especially since 2019, under a new HC, who lasted 3+ seasons, the program made a nosedive to become ridiculous. The team won 3 games in all of the full seasons the coach had and after a start of 1-3 the axe came out and chop, chop.
The interims coach did Brent Key did great, finished 4-4, so the season was 5-7, and won the main gig.
On the next seasons the team finished 7-6 each, including bowl games.
This season the team is 6-0 and on top of the ACC, ranked and doesn’t look like it will sink fast.
On the other side we have Duke, and if you know a bit over college football, Duke is not the team you mention in a sentence containing ‘contender’ or ‘winning team’.
Surprisingly to me is the all-time record of Duke is 0.495, so almost a winning team. The reason for that is likely, that in the past 12 seasons, the team is actually at 0.539 with sometimes very good results at 9 to 10 wins a season, including bowl games, which the team did not have since the mid-90s.
The last 3 HCs including the current one Manny Diaz in his 2nd season, were all hits for Duke and did lift the team from laughingstock to an image were you at least have to take them seriously. Still, Duke was not a real contender inside the ACC or even nationally. The closest they came to a championship was 2013, where they went to the Championship game and got hammered by Florida State.
But this season they are 4-2 (yes, doesn’t sound so great compared to 6-0) and 3-0 inside the ACC.
And they are here favored at home by 1.5 points against a perfect GT team!
By the way, if someone would have said, that Vandy and Duke would be favored on the same gameday ... nuts ...
Anyway, I do lean towards GT, who did take down Clemson and VT so far. Granted, they had trouble with Wake Forest, but won in OT, while Duke did so far win against NC State, Syracuse and Cal. Of those most impressive is likely the Cal win, with Cal seemingly fielding a good team this season.
I expect a close game, and the winner can actually hope for the Championship game, while the loser is likely out, even the team is at that moment only 1 win behind.
Yellow Jackets win.

#5 Ole Miss @ #9 Georgia
One of the top games inside the SEC, for both teams the season is seemingly on the line.
For Ole Miss the past 5 seasons under Lane Kiffin were a bittersweet experience. The team did become a force inside the SEC and national wide but did lack the punch to actually do something great.
Never went to the SEC Championship game (which meant ticket to the National Championship game, if you win that on top) and even last season with the expanded playoffs they came up short. By an inch or so.
This season it looks like there is room to get to the top or at least that far that you get into the playoffs, and you can eventually pull an Ohio-State-2024 and win the damn thing.
But for that they need a great record and one loss to any team, could mean to drop that critical inch downwards.
They are 6-0 so far, so a loss against a good team like Georgia is not the end of the day, but would prove once again, that Ole Miss lacks that punch.
Georgia on the other hand is 5-1 and Kirby Smarts team did already lose to rival Alabama, so another loss here would for sure push the team out of the top spots, which would be far from the expected results.
I don’t get the betting line of -7.5 points for Georgia, since both teams are good, if not great, this season and Ole Miss did also play already some tough nuts and won, so why are they supposed to lose by a score at Georgia?
The Bulldogs defense did struggle against several teams already and here comes one of the best offenses of the conference, if not the nation.
Key matchup will be the Georgia offense against the Ole Miss defense, because I’m sure the Rebels offense will score and the question will be, whether Georgia will be able to respond as often.
In the past games, they did respond as demanded, never more, only once less. But can they respond, if the demand is 30+ points?
I’m leaning towards the Rebels here, with Georgia looking suspicious. But I expect a very close game and an intense one.
Rebels win.

And some other interesting games:

Sat. Oct 18
UNLV @ Boise State
When all games are played, this game could be the preview of the Mountain West Championship game.
The conference is quite open, and both teams have quite favorable schedules, with Boise State also playing San Diego State soon to have that settled.
But one team will lose this weekend here, in the battle between the unbeaten.
UNLV has Dan Mullen as new HC and the team does play great. So great that Mullen is already in the rumors for some of the openings in power 4 conferences.
Would be a loss for the so far 6-0 Rebels.
And Boise State is 4-2, but had a tough start of the season. Spencer Danielson is in his 2nd season and the team lost the season opener to surprisingly strong South Florida (who did beat Florida a few days later) and to Notre Dame end of September. But all other was great.
And they play on the smurf turf at home.
Might be the reason for a betting line of -12.5 for Boise State.
I think they will have more than a handful to handle here against UNLV.
Who will win?
I don’t know.
UNLV did not play any great team, but handle the games in good ways and that upset of UCLA was at that time stunning, even it did turn out, UCLA was bad at that time.
I would love to see UNLV winning here, but I can not ignore the toughness of the Broncos and the home factor will be likely big.
Broncos win.

#11 Tennessee @ #6 Alabama
Why is this not a top game?
I don’t know, I wanted to get the focus on Vandy, Duke and GT, so that game had to move, I guess.
This rivalry game is called ‘Third Saturday in October’ and the winner donates cigars to their players and do invoke a NCAA violation which they do report immediately.
Nothing big happens because of that, since it is tradition and it’s only cigars.
The game itself is played annually since ages and Tennessee won last season.
Alabama is favored by 7.5 points at home this year.
If Bama wins, they are on course to the SEC Championship game, if Tennessee wins, they stay in the hunt.
Bama is perfect inside the SEC, Tennessee is 1 behind.
Means for the Vols, if they lose, the season goal is playoffs, since the Championship game is likely out of reach.
If Bama loses, things get a bit more complicated iside the SEC with more teams being 1 behind.
Bama did show a lot of character this season, so I expect them to handle this close game.
Crimson Tide win.

#20 USC @ #13 Notre Dame
Last one, and another rivalry game I had to move to this section.
And I think it is overrated this season.
Is USC really a TOP20 teams? I don’t think so.
Is Notre Dame really a TOP15 team? I don’t think so.
They meet in South Bend, they play annually this game, most of the time, and the Irish won the last 2 games.
They are favored by 9.5 points.
IF USC wants to be a bold team, beat Notre Dame on their home turf big time.
But I think they will not.
Fighting Irish win.

Man, I write way too much here.

'Til next time
Jack6 on BLOCK OF GRANITE

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2025-10-09 07:05

The craziness factor did go into overdrive this weekend, when several high-profile programs suffer defeats against so far underperforming programs.

Let’s start with the game between Penn State at UCLA.
Penn State got beaten the week before at home by Oregon by just 6 points. That did result in a small drop in the rankings, like ‘sure they lost, but they were quite close and since they both were top teams, Penn State has to be in the top’.
Now they had to travel to Los Angeles (to Pasadena to be correct) and face a team, which fell to 0-4 prior the game, which is under interims coaching and which did not look like any threat at all for a top team like Penn State. Betting line, Penn State favored by 24.5 points!
Fine, everyone thought Penn State would come into town, beat the shit out of the Bruins and go home, but UCLA did score first, did make a successful onside kick after that and scored again, having the Lions already stunned twice before Penn State even had the ball. Then came an absolute disaster quarter for Penn State and the Lions trailed suddenly 7:27 at the half.
Fine, Franklin did likely gave nice speech in the locker room, but that did not help much, since Penn State fumbled their first possession of the 3rd quarter away and the only good thing was a blocked punt returned for a TD, which did in total gave the Lions the quarter at 14:7, but overall the team was still down 21:34.
Then it did look like Penn State would turn the table and would escape here with 2 back eyes, but nope, UCLA did answer when needed and at the end did UCLA win their 1st game of the season against a high ranked Penn State team, 42:37.
The consequence was, Penn State did drop from #7 out of the top 25 with enough points to be at #28, if there would be such a spot.
BAM!

Another crazy game? Sure.
How about Texas ranked at #9 against a bad Florida team?
Texas had only lost to Ohio State at season opener so far and was therefore highly ranked. Same thing as with Penn State.
They went to Florida, which did so far suck big time, lost against South Florida, LSU and Miami, 3 times in a row. The coach likely already asking for some isolation material to stay on his seat.
Well, turned out, that came from Texas.
Here Florida was only a 4.5-point underdog, but seriously, with a Manning at the helm against a Gator team in decline? What could go wrong?
Hmmm. A lot, as it seems.
Gators were up 19:7 at the half and Texas had more or less no offense.
Florida did even win the 3rd quarter 10:7 and then slowly did Texas wake up and tried to win the game, but that was too late.
The did throw INTs and were lucky Florida did not score further, but with that kind of performance, too few points are scored, so Florida won at the end 29:21.
Texas did also drop out of the top 25 to a virtual #27 and Florida might be on a healing path, we will see.

Other crazy games?
- Ball State did win against Ohio, 20:14. The 1st FBS win for Ball State this season, upsetting a 2-score favorite at home. Not bad.
- Wake Forest won against Virginia Tech on the road, 30:23. Sure VT is only on interims reign, still they were the favorite and got decked.
- Washington did beat Maryland on the road, 24:20. First loss for Maryland this season.
- Appalachian State did win against Oregon State, 27:23. I have the feeling, the Beavers will get a new HC, soon, since the team is 0-6 and even if the coach is only in his 2nd season, going from 5-7 to 0-6 is not the kind of progress the program seeks, I guess.
- Akron won against Western Michigan, 28:22. Also for the Zips the first FBS win of the season.
- Duke did beat Cal, on the road, 45:21. So far Cal did look like a winning team this season and now Duke did just steamroll them to stay perfect inside the ACC. Crazy.

That weekend did ruin my ESPN pick sheet, but fine, that way the season says interesting.

Let’s look at the games I did pick as preview last week and review them.

The BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 6

Sat. Oct 4
#14 Iowa State @ Cincinnati
I did lean on Iowa State defense and that unit did let everyone down in the 1st quarter to allow 17 unanswered points.
The Cyclones then did recover a bit but missed a field goal mid quarter to add some greave to their misery and when the teams did split for the half that quarter was 15:14 for the Cyclones and the game was still Cincinnati leading 31:15.
The 3rd quarter was almost all defense and Iowa State was only able to get close by 1 score.
So, the 4th quarter was the thing then. And here did Iowa States offense suck big enough to NOT get closer and when finally Cincinnati was able to score another TD it was clear that Iowa State would lose that game.
At the end it was only a 1 score loss, but still a loss.
A big setback for the Cyclones, who did look until this game like a sure thing for a great season, but now they are 1 loss behind of 4 teams inside the BIG12, including Cincinnati.
#14 Iowa State 30 @ Cincinnati 38 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 7-3

#16 Vanderbilt @ #10 Alabama
By far not the sure win Alabama did likely hope for.
The 1st quarter was dominated by errors, mostly Tide errors.
Vandy did lead 7:0 after that quarter and even when Alabama did tie the game, Vandy was able to get ahead again. Only before the break did Alabama tie the game at 14 again and the teams did split.
I’m sure the Bama fans were not really happy, since this was at home and against Vandy.
Then, finally, did Alabama pull away and won the game by a stronger defense which did no longer allow any scoring.
The team did beat the betting line, but likely the fans were still not that happy with that performance against damn Vandy.
At the end, I think for the Alabama coaches it was just that win they had to make, and they had upcoming Missouri as much tougher game already in their head.
Vanderbilt will try to spoil more teams season, not sure they can be better than last year, or not.
#16 Vanderbilt 14 @ #10 Alabama 30 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 8-3

#3 Miami @ #18 Florida State
The State champ is Miami, winning against FSU 28:22.
Unfortune for the Seminoles fans did their team only came to play in the last quarter, where they did score 19 of the 22 points and where their defense did not allow a single score.
But at that point the team was already behind by 25 points.
In total Miami did stay on course and is aiming for the ACC and beyond, while FSU did show some fighting spirit, but not enough to play a big role inside the ACC as they would like to play as Florida State.
#3 Miami 28 @ #18 Florida State 22 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 9-3

And some other interesting games:

Sat. Oct 4
#24 Virginia @ Louisville
After a tied game at the break did first Virginia turn the game to their side, then did Louisville tie it up in the 4th quarter, only to lose the game in OT 27:30.
The Cardinals had opened the OT with a field goal and Virgina just punched in a TD to win.
Now Virginia looks quite hot inside the ACC, while Louisville needs to be lucky to get another shot into the title game.
Jacks interesting games Score: 6-4

#11 Texas Tech @ Houston
Well, Houston never stood a chance in this game, was basically always behind and never in a position to tie the game or better.
At the end a clear 35:11 win by the Red Raiders to keep the hunt for a championship game spot alive.
Jacks interesting games Score: 7-4

UNLV @ Wyoming
Even UNLV started with a fumble drive, they had a strong 1st quarter to lead by 2 scores and then defend that lead in a quite defense driven game to win 31:17.
UNLV looks strong this season, while Wyoming might have to settle for a mid-field position in the standings.
Jacks interesting games Score: 8-4

That wraps up the last gameday and we can look to the next one.

Here we will see some interesting games between teams, who are likely top contenders and teams who are eventually top contenders.

The conferences standings are quite fresh and not really aligned so far, since the real conference matchups did start only a few gamedays ago and the scheduling does not always give every team a top contender in that period. Sometimes teams are lucky, and they have in a season only one or two of those at all on their schedule, which either means, happy regular season and then comes the hangover on an eventual championship game and/or bowl, or the teams are top contenders themselves and the field is not as dense as some might wish for.

I will give a conference overview starting November, prior that it doesn’t make sense.

Also, there is no sense preaching the top 25 list or some other sort of list down, every week, since the real sorting will start later, and the REAL list is the committee list for the playoffs.

So, let’s have a look on the games of the upcoming weekend.

The BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 7

Sat. Oct 11
#1 Ohio State @ #17 Illinois
Only really a top game, because it is for Ohio State on the road.
Last year was for Ohio State almost perfect, since they won the National Championship. It was only ALMOST perfect, since the team did not win the conference and THE GAME. The Buckeyes did lose against Oregon, the later conference champ, mid-season and later the team did lose also against Michigan in THE GAME, one of the, if not THE, most anticipated rivalry games, every season.
Ryan Day is the HC of the Buckeyes since 2019 and he has won that rivalry game only in his 1st year, then came covid and then came Michigans dominance.
Well, last year did they lose again, despite Michigan being not a top contender and therefore the team did miss the Championship game, but went into the playoffs as one of the top 12 teams named by the committee and they made the best out of it and won against all odds.
This season the team is perfect, did win close games against Texas at season start and against Washington on the road.
Now they face an Illinois team, which is hard to judge.
They lost big against Indiana, but did also best Duke, which does right now turn the ACC upside down, and won against USC, a team with much deeper pockets and a tradition to win.
Bret Bielema has the team for sure on a winning path, again.
This game here it the toughest they have so far in the season, likely the toughest of the season.
Vegas does not give a lot for the Illini, making them a 14.5-point underdog.
I personally do also not think they will stand a chance, but Illinois at home is not take lightly since a few seasons and don’t forget the Penn State loss of last week. Those Lions fans and the coaches do still wonder, why they lost that Should-Have-Been-Won-Game.
I do not pick against Ohio State here; I just hope for a close game and an interesting outcome.
Buckeyes win.

#8 Alabama @ #14 Missouri
I didn’t want to s e l e c t Alabama again, but in such a game here, I cannot ignore them.
With the win last week against Vanderbilt the team is right now one of 5 unbeaten teams inside the SEC and one of the hottest, even the Vandy game was not really hot.
It’s more that Alabama WAS one of the team to beat until the last coach did step aside. Then last season, with the new coach Kalen DeBoer the team did take at least one step back, if not two, and IF he manages to do the same as he did at Washington, the team is up to make at least one step forward, if not two.
That would mean, that Alabama is again a top team and that means, they play for the SEC Championship and beyond.
BUT, Missouri is one of the teams, which might give Alabama a hint for reality.
Missouri is also perfect inside the SEC and on top overall.
Eliah Drinkwitz is in his 6th season and did build the team after 3 mediocre seasons into a winner with 11 wins in 2023 and 10 wins in 2024.
In both seasons they did lack the final punch to actually play for something worthy in the postseason and the numbers are only that high, because they won both bowls in that season.
In 2023, if at that point the playoff system would have been already the new one, they would have likely played at least 1st round, but it wasn’t that system then.
Last year they ended up barely in the top 25.
This season they did so far play only non-contenders, from my point of view, with South Carolina likely being the toughest team.
Now, Alabama, but at least at home.
I think the Vegas guys are also not really sure, what to make out of both teams and whether they are really the real deal inside the SEC, so the line is Alabama -2.5 as guest team.
Not much, but it sends a message. The message is, they prefer Alabama but are not sure why.
I think the key will be Alabamas defense, which is a unit, the quite capable Missouri offense have not met yet this season.
If that defense, which did allow max so far 21 points, if you except the season start against FSU, does control Missouris offense, then the game will be tough for them.
Because for sure will Alabama find ways to score and likely 20+ points easily. So my expectation is, if Missouri can exploit the Bama defense, then this is an open game. If not, I think Alabama will prevail.
I’m torn between the Tigers as underdog and the Tide as likely better suited and stuffed team.
Coin toss.
Tigers win.

#7 Indiana @ #3 Oregon
I did preview both teams already in previous entries, so I go directly into the game itself.
We have an Indiana team, which looks like an exception to their history, that one lighthouse in a lot of bad seasons.
They do face the reigning BIG10 champ, which does again click on all cylinders, and which is very likely to enter the BIG10 Championship game again.
But ... one of the teams have to give up here and will be a win behind in the Championship game seatings, and that might be too much this season.
Both are 5-0 overall and 2-0 inside the conference.
And there is Ohio State and Michigan also unbeaten inside the conference.
Chances are high, the winner of Ohio State and Michigan might take the 1st seat (likely OSU) and the winner here takes the 2nd.
Sure, every team can start sucking like Penn State did and if that happens with the 4 teams mentioned, the BIG10 will be a mess with a lot of tie breakers to calculate.
I only wanted to point to the fact, that those 4 teams do NOT meet against each other except the 2 games mentioned.
And this here is the 1st of those, with THE GAME is the last.
Playing at home. Oregon is favored to win here by 7.5 points.
That’s not that much, if you have Indiana vs Oregon on any year in mind.
This year, I don’t know.
Indiana did put A LOT of points on some opponent, but I doubt they can do that on Oregon.
Oregon did the same with many teams, but is Indianas defense as bad? I don’t know. They did not face such a team so far.
So, crucial matchup will be for sure, Indiana defense vs Oregon offense, because if that defense can stand up, this will be a fun game.
If not, I think Oregon will outscore them, likely more than the line suggest.
With that in mind and the home field waiting, I go with Nike ... ahhh ... Oregon.
Ducks win.

And some other interesting games:

Sat. Oct 11
#6 Oklahoma @ Texas
It’s a shame it came to that, but the Red River Rivalry became one of those ‘Oh, by the way, Sooners do play Longhorns also this weekend’ games.
Brent Venables is in his 4th year and the Sooners are seemingly heading into the right direction, 5-0 so far.
But they did not face a lot of good teams, in fact, none.
Steve Sarkisian is in his 5th season with Texas and this was supposed to be the championship season with that Manning QB winning everything there is and going to Mars and win a Noble Price and so on.
Expectations were HIGH in Texas after last seasons success and the team went 3-2 so far and lost to struggling Florida last week.
Now they face that hated rival.
What can go wrong, right?
Well, Vegas doesn’t know, and I think deep down everybody is expecting that none of the teams here will have a say inside the SEC this season and both will end up 2nd tier or worse.
So, the line is Sooners -1.5.
Not sure what my take is here, because I think Texas HAS the tools, they just fumble them around and are not DOING something with it.
I expect a high emotional game, nobody cares about, once it is over.
I think Texas is better than they did show and that they will try to make better after the Florida disaster, so ...
Longhorns win.

#18 BYU @ Arizona
If any teams did so far look like a favorite inside the BIG12, it’s BYU.
Kalani Sitake is in his 10th season with the team and has a very good record with the team, did miss last year the Championship game only by a tie breaker and won the bowl to finish 11-2.
This season so far 5-0. The team seems to be doing always enough to win, but they did not face one of the other likely contenders so far.
Arizona is under the watch of Brent Brennan in the 2nd season and last year was a bad one, but so far is the current one much better.
They have already as many wins this season as they had over the whole season last year.
They lost to Iowa State, which is for sure at least in the mix for a contention and do now host BYU.
Do I think Arizona is a contender? No.
Do I think this is a BYU win by default? No.
Arizona could be the team this year, nobody wants to play, because you might disregard them as a bump on the road and you crash into a wall.
Vegas has BYU up by 1.5 points, which is nothing, so there is also some mixed feelings about this.
I’m not sure, what to expect, a shootout of a defense standstill, but I lean towards a shootout.
In that I think the BYU defense will come up big more often than they fail.
Cougars win.

#21 Arizona State @ Utah
This feels like the pity-bowl.
Arizona State, reigning BIG12 champ, playoff team last year, did just seemingly crash, when they lost to Mississippi State on week 2. But the team did win all other games and is perfect inside the BIG12.
They MIGHT return to the championship game. But you might not trust in that confidence, because of that loss to the Bulldogs.
And Utah, they were supposed to come back after a bad season, because that is what their coach is doing since the ages of the dinosaurs.
But they seemingly crashed against Texas Tech 2 weeks ago and that did hurt also.
Here, one team will have to let go.
If Arizona State wins, all will say ‘yeah, they are contenders’ and Utah will be just in for another mediocre season at best.
The other way around, both teams might end up 2nd tier and will have no say for the championship game.
I personally still believe in Utah to be not bad, so I think they can win this.
Vegas is also confident and picks Utah as 5.5-point favorite.
Utes win.

'Til next time
Jack6 on BLOCK OF GRANITE

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