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| Main / RZA Elite League / RZA Elite season 46 Search Forum | |
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pderekdactyl
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posted: 2022-03-16 02:46:09 (ID: 100166058) Report Abuse |
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Time to check in on how Rufio's Preseason Power Rankings are faring and how they coompare to prior seasons (in this post: Rufio's Rankings Ranked).
Average absolute difference in Win projections: 1.8 difference - pretty standard Rufio things. BUT! We have a new record for Rufio's largest miss this season. Yorkies were -7 from Rufio's projection, meanwhile Växjö's great success ties the previous record with +6. 4/6 AC playoff teams 5/6 NC playoff teams Half of the preseason playoff projection final four still remain (Rufio  Kanar and Yorkies hard here)
Other than those two giant record misses, the rest of the record projections were shockingly close-ish. Reminder: The average bowl winner was 10.3, and the average bowl loser was 9. I'm still surprised at that terrible prognosticating. That Roma vs Rufio Bowl still lines up perfectly with that. Still In Contention (number is Rufio's preseason ranking): 2. Willemstad Bridges 3. Flaccid Malones 5. San Diego Blitz 6. PR Chaser 9. AS Roma Wolves 10. Space Kraken 21. Växjö Vikings AFC 24. Stone Mountain Hawks 2 There is no relegated team to root for in the playoffs, so, at this point I assume pretty much everyone is a Stone Mountain or Växjö fan. Eliminated in Playoffs: 1. The Alpin Ducks 7. TigerCats 13. Chelt Nam Bobbers 20. Norfolk Heroes Regular Season Heartbreak: 04. 08. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 22. 23. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. |
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| posted: 2022-03-16 21:45:51 (ID: 100166073) Report Abuse | |
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Steve has 19 victories in his last 20 games.
All of you have just one try, which team beat him, only team that beat him in that 20 games? 
But what a three days for him, first cup at squids and then league at Vaxjo. And almost a two matches vs squids in 3 days but Malones ruined that
Will he bring back glory to Galaxy once again? We will cheer for that  |
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| posted: 2022-03-17 04:26:44 (ID: 100166074) Report Abuse | |
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Did the Vikings beat me earlier this season?
Steve SD Blitz |
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| posted: 2022-03-17 21:21:56 (ID: 100166084) Report Abuse | |
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Solana_Steve wrote:
Did the Vikings beat me earlier this season? Steve SD Blitz I don't remember 😉 But I know for sure that squids are pulling their hair for that 4th down in 4th quarter where they should punt instead of going for it 🤔🤔🤔 |
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pderekdactyl
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posted: 2022-03-17 23:09:55 (ID: 100166086) Edits found: 1 Report Abuse |
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Dumbarajko wrote:
But I know for sure that squids are pulling their hair for that 4th down in 4th quarter where they should punt instead of going for it 🤔🤔🤔 I'm really torn here. I would love to join in the discussion about all the poor life choices Rufio makes, but I also will never advocate for a punt. Last edited on 2022-03-17 23:10:52 by pderekdactyl |
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| posted: 2022-03-17 23:11:51 (ID: 100166087) Report Abuse | |
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pderekdactyl wrote:
Dumbarajko wrote:
But I know for sure that squids are pulling their hair for that 4th down in 4th quarter where they should punt instead of going for it 🤔🤔🤔 I'm really torn here. I would love to join in the discussion about all the poor life choices Rufio makes, but I also will never advocate for a punt. +1 much worse if you punt and lose and kick yourself for not even try to go for the win |
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| posted: 2022-03-17 23:19:31 (ID: 100166088) Edits found: 1 Report Abuse | |
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pderekdactyl wrote:
Dumbarajko wrote:
But I know for sure that squids are pulling their hair for that 4th down in 4th quarter where they should punt instead of going for it 🤔🤔🤔 I'm really torn here. I would love to join in the discussion about all the poor life choices Rufio makes, but I also will never advocate for a punt. Regret for life choices? Many. Regret for trying to end the game in one play against one of the top teams? None. Pretty ridiculous that this is the second time I've failed 4th and game against Steve so he could score a last second TD to win the game though. Actually that's 3 games that have gone to the last play and all have gone his way. I clearly haven't paid Pete enough. Hopefully we'll both be lucky enough for a rematch. Last edited on 2022-03-17 23:30:33 by Rufio13 |
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pderekdactyl
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posted: 2022-03-17 23:43:46 (ID: 100166089) Edits found: 1 Report Abuse |
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Using Pro Football References win probability calculator (obviously NFL and RZA aren't perfect matches, also no way to s e l e c t time outs left in calculations, and a whole lot of other caveats)
Before the play, Kraken win% is 80.2% win probability calculator Go for it and succeed: Kraken win% is 87.23 Go for it and fail: Kraken win% is 60.55 Punt it (assumed 3:34 with punt to the 15): Kraken win% 70.85. If you make the, admittedly large, leap to say that the Pro Football Reference win probability calculations are good and can apply to RZA ... then it's really just, 36% success needed for it to be an even call using those calcs compared to punting. Edit: my links to the scenarios didn't work and I don't feel like trying again right now , just look yourself using the calculator linked. Last edited on 2022-03-17 23:49:50 by pderekdactyl |
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| posted: 2022-03-18 14:32:43 (ID: 100166095) Edits found: 1 Report Abuse | |
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pderekdactyl wrote:
Using Pro Football References win probability calculator (obviously NFL and RZA aren't perfect matches, also no way to s e l e c t time outs left in calculations, and a whole lot of other caveats) Before the play, Kraken win% is 80.2% win probability calculator Go for it and succeed: Kraken win% is 87.23 Go for it and fail: Kraken win% is 60.55 Punt it (assumed 3:34 with punt to the 15): Kraken win% 70.85. If you make the, admittedly large, leap to say that the Pro Football Reference win probability calculations are good and can apply to RZA ... then it's really just, 36% success needed for it to be an even call using those calcs compared to punting. Edit: my links to the scenarios didn't work and I don't feel like trying again right now , just look yourself using the calculator linked. I think in my PB, I would have probably punted. But I don't think that going for it was a bad option - - essentially supported by the above data. I'm guessing those numbers aren't real accurate for RZA. I think we've all seen Tom -G.O.A.T- (and others) lead his team the length of the field to score and win a game - - sometime in less than a minute. But in RZA, I don't think you can usually move the ball that fast. Most PBs don't have a lot of long passes (because the interception rate is really high on them). So you're pretty much getting 10-14 yards a pass unless you can break a tackle and go all the way. It just seems like you probably need 4-5 minutes to drive the entire field and probably a good 3 minutes to take it in from the center strip (like in this case). Steve SD Blitz Last edited on 2022-03-18 14:33:51 by Solana_Steve |
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| posted: 2022-03-19 08:21:37 (ID: 100166107) Report Abuse | |
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Let's see which team will punt the most today :
2022-03-19 18:00 Divisional Playoff AS Roma Wolves Czechrepublic vs. PR Chaser Usa The revenge to the Divisional Playoffs of last season. PR Chaser look like huge favourites at this point. But the end of their regular season showed that they can be beaten. And Scratobones knows how to to this as seen in season 45. This season they met once and PR won by 35-16. Flaccid Malones Usa vs. Space Kraken Usa The cuddlefest. These two will celebrate their season in style, having ousted King Luluba to Monarch1. For Derek the hope is to win by a Scorigami type of result. For Rufio the goal is to avoid a Scorigami at all costs, even if this means to punt in the last second instead of scoring a winning FG. San Diego Blitz Usa vs. Växjö Vikings AFC Sweden While there were previous doubts, yes, the Vikings have beaten the Blitz on match day 5. The Vikings won 28-23 in San Diego. Both punters were busy with the Vikings punter stepping on the field 4 times against 3 of the Blitz punter. Stone Mountain Hawks 2 Germany vs. Willemstad Bridges Netherlands To make the divisional playoffs in their first Elite season is quite an accomplishment. Nothing to lose for the Hawks in Willemstad while the fans of the former champion already chant "hup hup hup we winner de cup". Anything but a win of the Bridges would be a surprise. On the other hand, who doesn't love surprises ? no predictions |
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