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| Main / Dragons / Season 46 Dragons 1 Weekly Game Pre and Post Analysis and Season Preview Search Forum | |
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| Poster | Message |
| posted: 2022-03-01 22:37:16 (ID: 100165688) Report Abuse | |
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sfniner08 wrote:
Games To Watch! Not enough time to break down games but will point out important ones with implications for the playoffs. Alert Polar Bears @ Lonestar A win here by Lonestar gives them a 2 game lead with 3 games to go. Neither team has an easy final 3 but Bears have a slightly easier one. A win by Polar bears brings them to a tie and with the easier schedule can give them an edge. This game could be the determination of the division winner but there are still 3 more games left. This was a tough gritty game that saw Lonestar fighting off a comeback by the Bears. With a 2 game advantage and a significant pd advantage it is unlikely the Polar Bears take the division. Looks like they are now staving off wildcard contenders and that is a super crowded bunch! BPJ @ Pikes While a loss by BPJ doesn't eliminate them officially it would certainly push them way out of the playoff picture. BPJ is all but eliminated falling to 3 games back in the wildcard with 3 games to go. It would require a sweep by them and one of those other teams to get swept while also overcoming an over 40 pd. Jackalopes @ Paladins Jackalopes are in no danger of losing the division but are only one game ahead in the seeding. Paladins are the next in line for a shot at the wild card and with a loss here they fall that much further back. Did not see that coming as Paladins handled Jackalopes by keeping them to field goals instead of TDs. Crazy thing about the second half is that there were 7 total drives by both teams that was each double digits in plays and and at least 3 minutes long and were all scoring drives. What? Wowser. Seahawks @ Devils and SF @ Baltic Stars Devils are in no danger of losing the division but the three other teams in these 2 games are connected. Any combination of wins and losses here can result with Seahawks taking firm control of the division, to Baltic taking the division lead, to Seahawks clinging to a division lead and SF and Baltic one game back. A Seahawk and SF win would put Seahawks in firm control. Unlikely I win but hey... A tight game all the way between SF and Baltic with SF winning combined with the Seahawks dismantling the Devils give the Seahawks the division unofficially. Seahawks have super chill last 3 games. Baltic has 2 tough games left as do I. SF and Baltic are part of the huge wildcard pack. Panthers @ Quack Attack A Quack win and it all but seals the Panthers season but a Panther win and pulls the quack that much further back from the pack and the playoff picture. Panthers went duck hunting and brought plenty of ammunition! Putting up 51 on the quack dropped the quack further back in the wild card pack. That big margin cause the Quack to have a large negative pd. Steelers @ Torpedos Both teams are desperate for a win with the Torpdoes tied with Outlaws for the division and the Seahawks still one back of the final wild card spot. Steelers just might have been Torpedoed for the playoffs. That loss hurts their chances being 2 games back with 3 to go. Meanwhile Torpedos kept pace with Outlaws. |
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PlumDumb
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posted: 2022-03-01 23:20:12 (ID: 100165689) Report Abuse |
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"The Panthers went duck hunting and brought plenty of ammunition"
That quacked me up! 
My game surprised me to be as low scoring as it was. Those Bears have my number. Finally got a win against them. |
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| posted: 2022-03-02 02:19:52 (ID: 100165690) Report Abuse | |
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Did not surprise me. Paladins are a very well put together team (much like the moors) but has had odd luck and outcomes this season.
and SF I very well may have a very hard time getting an 11th win this season. 
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| posted: 2022-03-02 18:54:31 (ID: 100165701) Report Abuse | |
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punch drunk wrote:
Did not surprise me. Paladins are a very well put together team (much like the moors) but has had odd luck and outcomes this season. and SF I very well may have a very hard time getting an 11th win this season.
Certainly no cupcakes left on your schedule. Still a virtual lock for your division though as you are playing your division for the final 3 games and they would have to have just one of them win out to catchup to you. They also have tough schedules. Perhaps one of the tougher divisions. |
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| posted: 2022-03-02 19:18:51 (ID: 100165702) Edits found: 1 Report Abuse | |
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Upcoming Games Affecting Playoff Picture
10-3 Gardians @ 8-5 Mulheim Steelers A loss by Steelers might seal their playoff doom as they are currently 2 games out of the wild card. For the Gardians....they are guarding that division lead by one game with 3 to go. No lock for them yet so each game is important! Both teams have similar stats with Gardians winning the last 2 matchups. 10-3 Jackalopes @ 7-6 Panthers Both of these teams are going to be in each preview each week. lol. Jackalopes are playing for seeding but the Panthers are playing to stay alive as they are part of the 7 teams pile up playing for the 2 wild card spots. This wild card race might go down to the wire. These 2 teams have played each other 9 times since season 30 with it being a back and forth win. This season the Jackalopes won an early game by only 7 points. 10-3 Lonestar @ 7-6 Quack Attack This is the same as the previous game with regards to the playoffs. Historically Lonestar has dominated the Quack 11-3. The most recent game they played was a 40-7 beat down of the Quack. Lets hope they don't quack up this time. lol. 7-6 SF @ 7-6 BPJ Who ever loses this match is out of the play off race. For BPJ they will be mathematically eliminated and for me I would based on my PD be eliminated. 8-5 Paladins @ 8-5 Polar Bears Both teams are currently holding the 2 wild card spots but with them both having lower PD than the 2 teams below them and having only a 1 game difference in record , the loser of this game will drop out of the wild card spot for at least one week anyway. Paladins have won the last 2 matchups by a combined 4 points! 11-2 Pikes @ 7-6 Marines For the Pikes this is for seeding but for the Marines who are 1 game back of the wildcard it is very important. Still three games to go but with 7 teams vying for 2 spots it feels like the 7-6 teams have to win out to get in. 10-3 Werewolves @ 7-6 Baltic Stars Werewolves only need one more win the rest of the way to clinch a wildcard and they are already out of the division race so this game is whatever to them, but clinching would be nice. For Baltic they fall under the same premise as Westlake, Panthers, SF, and Quack.....got to win the last 3 games. Werewolves won the matchup last season 38-30. Will this also be a high scoring affair? Last edited on 2022-03-02 20:54:24 by sfniner08 |
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| posted: 2022-03-02 21:00:48 (ID: 100165705) Report Abuse | |
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Games Affecting Relegation
0-13 Dolphins @ 4-9 Girona A win here by Girona with a loss by Turigtians to Devils would put them out of the relegation picture for the time being. 5-8 Wolves @ 3-10 Vipers If the wolves were to lose it would drop them down into the pack of "r" teams while it would also move Vipers one game closer to climbing out. Several other games will affect relegation but these seemed to have the most effect. |
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| posted: 2022-03-06 00:37:31 (ID: 100165776) Report Abuse | |
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Playoff Picture With 2 Games Remaining!
AC Clinched Division: Jackalopes Devils Clinched Playoff: Lonestar, and is a virtual lock for the division. Half of the playoff spots are locked in but the seeding still remains to be determined. The other 3 spots? For the AC West the Seahawks need only win one of the remaining 2 games to lock it up...officially anyway. In reality they have locked up the division as I, SF, would have to gain 124 points in my pd total. I also would need to have the Seahawks lose to Turigtians and then myself. That leaves us with 2 wild card spots: Currently held by 9-5 Polar Bears and shockingly me at 8-6. 5 more teams are in it with: 8-6 Paladins who have same differential of 16 as SF. Not sure why I am above in the current standings. 4 teams are 7-7: Panthers, Marines, Baltic, Quack Attack. Next games: Polar Bears vs Gardians SF vs Vipers Panthers vs Baltic Marines vs Jackalopes Quack vs Blackmanes Polar Bears and Marines both have tough matchups and I wouldn't be surprised by either outcome. Even if Polar Bears lost they have a high probability to make it with a game they should definitely win in their finale. In reality there are 6 teams fighting for that last wildcard. I kind of expect that SF and Paladins will split their final 2 games to finish the season at 9-7. That means the other 4 teams who are 7-7 have to win both of their final games. That is impossible for a few teams with Panthers playing Baltic as an example. The loser of that game is out. Actually Panthers also play the Marines in their finale. So even if Panthers beat Baltic they also have to beat Marines. Jackalopes face off against Marines and the Quack Attack. If Jackalopes win out the last 2 games then the only possible contender out of the 7-7 teams is the winner of Panthers vs Baltic. Except for Polar Bears, Paladins, and SF the rest need a lot of help to get in. NC Clinched Division: Pikes Clinched Playoffs: Moors (Although they have a 2 game advantage and a 100 pd advantage so it is a virtual lock). Likely other Division Winners: Outlaws with a one game lead and 100 pd advantage over Torpedos. Torpedos loss to Budapest Wolves might have just sunk them. Yes pun intended. Giving the edge to neither OTR or Gardians. OTR has one game vs Lonestar and one vs Nuthuggers. Gardians have the same record (after their recent loss to Steelers) and face Polar Bears followed by Rio. Gardians have a 70 pd advantage. OTR can't split the last 2 games and hope to win the division with the pd difference. If OTR loses to Lonestar then Gardians can split and still win the division. Either way both teams are still in the playoffs. Wild card: Currently Werewolves and OTR hold them. Steelers are 2 games back with 2 to go. OTR losing to Nuthuggers is extremely unlikely so Steelers have only one scenario to make it into the playoffs. Steelers must beat Girona AND Pikes while Werewolves lose to BPJ and Moors. Werewolves could lose both as they narrowly beat BPJ earlier this year and were thrashed by Moors. The more difficult part is Steelers beating Pikes who beat the Steelers 44-20 earlier this season. Even IF that all happens for the Steelers they still have to make up over a 100 points in their PD. So Werewolves can lose both games by a combined 20ish points and still be safe. In reality the AC playoff teams are already set, it is more a matter of seeding. |
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| posted: 2022-03-06 00:50:44 (ID: 100165777) Report Abuse | |
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Relegation Picture
Big R: Miami 0-14 Greyhounds 1-13 Blackmanes 1-13 Nuthuggers 1-13 Little R: 49er 2-12 Vipers 4-10 Turigtians 4-10 St. Pauli 4-10 In danger: Wolves 5-9 Girona 5-9 With the PD's of Greyhounds and Miami they will for certain directly relegate. Blackmanes and Nuthuggers can possibly move into a relegation game instead of directly relegating if they can win 1 more game than 49er. The teams that could climb out of relegation games are St. Pauli and Turigtians (ironically the 2 teams that played in the D2 championship game last season) by power of their pd. St. Pauli has a pd of 0 while the 2 teams above them Girona and Wolves have pd's of -148 and -17. So one St. Pauli win combined with 2 losses by either Girona or Wolves would get them out. Turigtians needs a more specific situation. They can't catch Wolves in PD but maybe Girona so Turigtians needs a win and 2 losses by Girona to get out of a relegation game. It is highly likely the current teams will be relegated or in a relegation game. |
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| posted: 2022-03-08 21:35:38 (ID: 100165865) Report Abuse | |
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Playoff Picture with 1 game to go!!!!!!!!!!
AC Lonestar, Devils, Seahawks, and Jackalopes have all clinched their divisions. Devils are pretty much locked into the 4th seed with the other 3 teams still playing for the 1,2,3 seeds. Just 2 wild card spots up for grabs! In at the moment: 10-5 Polar Bears Next vs 2-13 49er 9-6 Paladins 70pd Next vs 12-3 Lonestar On the outside looking in but still breathing: 9-6 SF 25 pd. Next vs 11-4 Seahawks 8-7 Westlake 124 pd Next vs Panthers 8-7 Panthers 103 pd Next vs Westlake Kind of crazy as outside of Polar Bears those are all tough games the other 4 teams face. Scenario for each team: Polar Bears.....just beat the 49ers. Even a loss doesn't hurt unless it was a blowout but highly unlikely. Paladins need to win to clinch as the pd is too much for SF to overcome. No way I beat Seahawks by that much if I even win at all, so just win Paladins and they are in. If they lose then the winner of Panthers and Westlake would over take them based on PD. So a loss will put them out of the playoffs. SF is the same as Paladins that with a loss they are out by pd tiebreakers as either Paladins or the winner of Panthers/Westlake would jump over them. The only path to the playoffs is a victory combined with a loss by Paladins. Westlake and Panthers are the same. Whoever wins that game needs SF and Paladins to lose. It is possible as both teams are facing division winners. Even though Quack also has 8-7 record the -28 pd is too much to overcome. NC Moors, Pikes, and Outlaws have clinched their divisions. The Outlaws are locked into the 4th seed while Pikes and Moors are still sorting out the 1 and 2 seed. Last division left to be claimed comes down to: 11-4 OTR 104 pd Next vs Nuthuggers 11-4 Gardians 144 pd Next vs Rio One might say that OTR is still in a decent position to win the division as their opponent has -211 pd while the Gardians opponent has a 47 pd. If OTR wants to win the division they have to do better than the first matchup with Nuthuggers when they won 13-12 which ironically was the one winnable game for the Nuthuggers this season. The Gardians faced Rio earlier this season and beat them 40-20. I think the 40 pd difference is too much to overcome for OTR so for them to win the division they need a win and also a loss by Gardians. Werewolves are locked in at the 1st wild card spot. Whoever loses the division race out of OTR and Gardians has only one other team that could take them out of the playoffs. The Steelers are sitting there at 10-5 but face the Pikes next. The only way for Steelers to "steal" a wild card spot is to win and have either OTR lose or Gardians lose by double digits. For reference the first matchup the Pikes won 44-20 over Steelers. |
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| posted: 2022-03-08 22:03:35 (ID: 100165869) Report Abuse | |
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Relegation
The current 8 teams are pretty much locked in for direct relegation or a relegation game. Even Girona is tied with St. Pauli there is a huge pd gap. THE only possible movement is for 49er to switch with either Blackmanes or Nuthuggers. If 49er loses to Polar Bear and either Blackmanes beats Miami or Nuthuggers beats OTR then 49er will direct relegate whereas either Blackmanes or Nuthuggers would play in a relegation game instead of direct relegation. Unlikely Nuthuggers wins. Possible for Blackmane to win vs 0-15 Miami. So realistically it will be a matter of either Blackmanes or 49er direct relegation or relegation game. |
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