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sfniner08
Sfniner08

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Joined: 2021-10-20/S44
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posted: 2022-05-03 13:14:31 (ID: 100167059) Report Abuse
I have just realized you have been in 4 of the 6 weeks I've done game previews. Heck of a schedule for you lol.
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K3m4li
posted: 2022-05-03 13:45:59 (ID: 100167060) Report Abuse
sfniner08 wrote:
I have just realized you have been in 4 of the 6 weeks I've done game previews. Heck of a schedule for you lol.


Yes, this year is a bit hard. But this league is basically not easy so you have to deal with it. There are still a few tough opponents to come. But despite the difficult opponents, I'm happy with how the season is currently going for my team.
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punch drunk
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posted: 2022-05-03 16:42:17 (ID: 100167061)  Edits found: 2 Report Abuse
K3m4li wrote:


It will be mine! I won't have as much luck as I had against the Gardians again. Last season I only won because my opponent had the wrong settings for the game. Accordingly (that's hard to write) I expect a clear victory for the Jackalopes.


Should be a good close game. I have my settings correct this time BUT that whooping you gave me last year can't entirely be excused by my mismanagement.

I considered doing MOTY on this one mainly cuz my next couple weeks have a bye and softer opponents but I want an even head to head match and I think we both can lose this game without it having devastating consequences on our play off run.

Good luck Steelers! Play nice.

Last edited on 2022-05-03 16:54:21 by punch drunk

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sfniner08
Sfniner08

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posted: 2022-05-06 16:12:39 (ID: 100167090) Report Abuse
This week there isn't a lot of games featuring winning teams vs winning teams. The most compelling is Seahawks vs Paladins and Quack Vs Marines. Not easy games to break down.

There are other games that have some interest such as....

The following teams sitting at 3-4 who were playoff teams last year or close to playoff teams last year. Sitting at 4-4 feels a lot better than 3-5 even though it is just one game.

7-0 Outlaws @ 3-4 Lonestar
Lonestar was 13-3 last season and have another tough division this year. Outlaws can afford to lose no problem but Lonestar is probably starting to feel a little desperation. Their last 9 games have 5 teams with losing records and 4 teams with winning records. Those 4 teams have a combined 3 losses. If they win the 5 games vs losing records that gives them 8 wins and it seems like they need to win 2 of the 4 vs winning records to get in.

3-4 OTR @ 1-6 Eagles

I know the Eagles are 1-6 but they absolutely have the capacity to pull off upsets. I have seen it more than once from them.

6-2 SF @ 3-4 Gardians

Gardians have had a tough schedule, no doubt. They beat me by 7 in the first matchup. Including this game they have 2 opponents left with winning records so the schedule should ease up. They have tough games vs SF, Seahawks, OTR, and maybe Baltic left. The other 5 games they should win, and that is the last 5 games of the season.
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sfniner08
Sfniner08

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posted: 2022-05-17 17:00:55 (ID: 100167247) Report Abuse
I am sorry that I haven't posted anything lately. Busy time, end of the school year approaching amongst other real life things. On to the games that are a in a few hours!

Week 11 Previews

5-5 Gardians @ 6-4 Seahawks

Before the season started I would have thought that both teams would have had a combined 4 losses by this point in the season. Yet here we are.

It has been several season since they last played each other so there isn't any relevant info to help out here.

The Seahawks started out 5-1 against opponents who have a combined 20-30 record at this point. They then lost 3 of the next 4 against opponents who have a combined 26-4 record and a bot game.

Gardians have had an up and down season where they beat teams with good records but then lose to teams that have only a few wins. The results game to game have been mixed which makes them hard to predict (unless they are playing me in which they beat me every time lol).

Statistically the Seahawks are better producing on offense and containing on defense. Both teams prefer to run but can obviously toss it up there when needed. Seahawks have been better vs the run so far this season and for that reason I'm picking Seahawks by 3. Both teams desperately need the win.

5-5 Dolphins @ 7-3 Steelers

A few weeks ago the Steelers were 6-1 and the dolphins were 3-4 and the division seemed wrapped up. However the Steelers have lost 2 of the last 3 while Dolphins have won 2 of the last 3. A Dolphins win here and the division lead is down to 1 for the Steelers.

Dolphins are inconsistent, trashing my team by 40 points but then getting trashed themselves by Blackmanes as an example. On the flip side the Steelers have been consistent throughout. Steelers have lost 2 of 3 but it is to good teams. I still think Steelers dominate this game by controlling the ball but you can't rule out a Dolphins upset.

8-2 Werewolves @ 9-1 Outlaws

Kind of cool to get a late season matchup with the current #1 and #2 conference seeds facing off! The last 10 matchups
(including 3 playoff matches) have been usually won by Werewolves. OK, OK, the Werewolves won 9 of those 10 games. The only game they lost was the most recent one when Outlaws knocked them out of the playoffs. That was a super sloppy game with both teams combining for 7 interceptions (one had 3 the other had 4). Outlaws also needed to convert 2 of 3 fourth downs. I mean absolutely no disrespect to Outlaws but it felt like the bounces went their way in that game. It could happen again but I'm betting on Werewolves by a TD.
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sfniner08
Sfniner08

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posted: 2022-05-19 21:54:10 (ID: 100167284) Report Abuse
Week 12

Only 2 games of note that have playoff or potential playoff teams facing each other. I'm sure the increased number of bots affects this.

Both of these games are rematches for divisional opponents.

7-4 Westlake @ 10-1 Panthers

These teams are not that far apart, and in fact could have their positions reversed if a few bounces went differently. Panthers have won 4 games by a touchdown or less (including the other matchup vs Westlake and a win against Jackalopes). On the other side Westlake has lost 3 games by a a touchdown or less (including the loss to Panthers and a 5 point loss to Jackalopes).

Panthers can afford a loss, right? Well in this imbalanced conference 4 of the 6 playoff teams have 2 or less losses. The two wild card holders are 10-1 Paladins and 9-2 Jackalopes. A loss by Panthers with a Jackalopes win would reverse their positions.

Westlake can't really afford to lose any games the rest of the way as they are 2 games back in the wild card with 5 games left. To get in Westlake can win the rest of the games to finish 12-4 and they still need Jackalopes to lose 3 of the last 5 or Panthers to lose 4 of the last 5 or Paladins to lose 4 of the last 5. They also would need to hold off 7-4 Lonestar in the process. One more loss by Westlake or Lonestar makes their playoff hopes all but lost.

The last game between these 2 was a close 24-17 win by Panthers that featured lots of punting by both sides and no scores in the last 12 minutes of the game. Statistically Panthers owned the game but still need the score in the 4th quarter to take the lead for good. Westlake can win it but they have to fix whatever the problems that ailed them last time. Specifically going 4-14 on 3rd downs.

11-0 Guns & Roses @ 10-1 Paladins

A little crazy to consider that Paladins at 10-1 are the current 5th seed. It is a near lock both teams get into the playoffs. It would take GR losing out or Paladins losing 4 of 5 to get them out of the playoff picture.

The last game GR had more yards, first downs, and pretty much every stat. What Paladins has to give them hope are 2 things. 1. GR struggled in the middle of the season winning close games to teams with losing records. I didn't check to see if they played a different lineup or playbook as a possible reason. 2. There is one stat that Paladins can improve on that can drastically change the outlook of the game. They were 3 of 14 on 3rd downs. Converting even 6 of those could have changed that game as GR could have had less possessions and less scores while giving Paladins more chances for scores.

The rest of the games

There is technically one other game that has two teams with winning records but one team has benefited with a soft schedule. St. Pauli has won 5 games against teams with a combined 9 wins and 3 bots. They did keep GR to a close game though. I expect Steelers to roll.

The rest of the games are:

4 games with bots and the rest where at least one team has a losing record. Upsets are always a possibility....so Seahawks beware.....
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punch drunk
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posted: 2022-05-20 05:38:25 (ID: 100167285) Report Abuse
That G&R vs Paladins game is big. If Paladins come away with a win that could lead to a 2 game losing streak for G&R and Paladins could end up winning that division.

I'm a little concerned with my next game. 2nd week with my most talented offensive player in the doctor office. Could get rough. If I lose this one I may struggle to get the 2 more wins I likely need for playoff entry.

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punch drunk
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posted: 2022-05-21 21:07:04 (ID: 100167296) Report Abuse
RZA game engine sure is favoring G&R this season. Got out of yet another shoulda been loss.
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sfniner08
Sfniner08

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posted: 2022-05-21 21:10:27 (ID: 100167297) Report Abuse
Yes, the AI did Paladins dirty for sure. I mean Paladins had the lead for all but 7 minutes of the game and holding on to the one point lead and 1:27 left there is an interception?

That aside, it can be somewhat avoided if you put plays in to run when you have a lead late. A fumble can happen but seems less likely than an interception.

GR did get the bounces they needed in that one.

punch drunk wrote:
RZA game engine sure is favoring G&R this season. Got out of yet another shoulda been loss.
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sinman
posted: 2022-05-21 21:10:42 (ID: 100167298) Report Abuse
Well that depends in which part of game you point... I didn't see anything yet what is called scorigami in Elite league.
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