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Main / Monarchs / Monarchs 1 Season 49 Search Forum
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jack6
Leverkusen Leopards

Germany   jack6 owns a supporter account   jack6 is a Knight of RedZoneAction.org

Joined: 2011-09-05/S00
Posts: 7131
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posted: 2022-09-21 12:14:15 (ID: 100169574) Report Abuse
BEFORE I START: CHECK YOUR 30+ PLAYERS AND RENEGOTIATE THEIR CONTRACTS (if you have HR activated).
I did it today and my team wage sum did drop by 400K, because all did demand much less.
Rule of thumb, 86% of what they demand in the negotiation box.
You might have missed the announcement by Peter under the pretty cheerleader (as I did).

Thanks to the new Beckos try and the already likely mismatch between reality and the prediction (which is not the fault of the system, it can only work with the data it has and usually that does not include whether the manager did log in the past few weeks, he did announce his retirement or whether the roster was managed properly) I decided to give it a try again.

Let's have a look on each division.

AC
AC East
Torchwood Aliens
Toronto Thunder
oil
Sardínia Pirahnas
Tough to judge what's going on here. The Aliens are again in financial trouble and did send some veterans packing. It's not clear, how deep the hole is, but seems to be not THAT deep, since he has only 1 player on the market and wages are right now close the 'sustainable' level. His team will likely win the division, but I think they will lose all real challenges, which are if I'm not mistaken 2 games.
Thunder has a bit weaker roster and play a tougher schedule, so likely they will land at #2 inside the division. IF they can win against the Aliens, they can win the division eventually, but I think they would need a sweep.


AC North
Arizona Hummingbirds
MK Saints
New Haven Masons
Vicenza Coyotes
And the next enigma. Hummingbirds have (likely) forgotten to prolong around 10 players, or they did let them go because of their wages (which seems unlikely, I scouted one and he was not THAT expensive). Regardless, the team lost 10 contributors and it will be a weaker team, compared to last year. They schedule is quite easy, so they will end up on top anyway.
MK Saints did mess up their roster big time and will take a huge dive. Maybe they will recover thanks to the transfer market or maybe the team will quit. It will not fall BOT, since the manager did log in yesterday, but the quality of play will likely be bad. They have a similar schedule as the Birds, but will likely lose the series, hence finish #2


AC South
Leverkusen Leopards
Roq-A-Bloq
BBB
Poruba Jeremies
My team will win the division, since there are only BOTs and a single almost brand new team. No competition. Right now I would say, there is only 1 meaningful game left, against the Bruisers mid-season. There rest should be wins.
Roq-A-Bloq are just 2 weeks old and will play a slightly tougher schedule than mine, but of cause because of the team strength most likely the BOT games will be the wins. Still they might end up with 9-10 wins at #2.


AC West
Black Dragons
Roll Badge 2.0
Orono Ancient Snappers
Dan1983m
A tougher division, filled with 4 human teams, divided by a set of contenders and weaker teams. I give Black Dragon the nod at #1, since they have a lot of experience. Their schedule is almost the same regarding playing stronger teams than for Roll Badge 2.0, so likely the division will be decided in the division series between both teams.
But Roll Badge 2.0 can overcome the Dragons, maybe with luck or maybe because of better playbook. I see them at #2 with maybe 1 win or 2 less.
The Snappers will likely finish #3, since dan1983m did heavily mess up his roster and I doubt a quick recovery, while the Snappers try to improve. Maybe they will need a win or 2 from the games against Dan1983m to leapfrog them, since the Russian team seems to have a slightly easier schedule. Thanks to a quite human managed team driven schedule they will end up with 4-6 wins I guess.
And Dan1983m is still a mystery for me, the team is not well managed, for seasons, and now they did kill their roster. Likely to finish last here.


NC
NC East
Burnaby Bruisers
Southern Meerkats
Berinsfield Hornets
Québec Shamrocks
The Bruisers will cruise to a division title this season. The Hornets will fall BOT in 2-3 weeks and the rest is new or BOT. With 2 meaningful games, the team will at least win 14.
The Meerkats will likely finish at #2, since the Hornets will fall BOT soon. But the Meerkats are a new team, so BOT wins might not come fast. But the manager is a returning one, the 1st version went from roughly 40-46, so hopefully he can build something quickly.
The Hornets did announce their leave last season and did not log in since. They will fall BOT in 2-3 weeks.


NC North
birney's weekenders
SARMIS
Crystal Brook Meerkats
Hills
I pick the weekenders winning the division here, since SARMIS did not log in so far and does manage his team, say unconventional. I expect the weekenders to prevail inside their division matches even the 1st match is already this Saturday.
SARMIS did not log in and it's unclear he will return or not. The team has no coaches since ages, which is one of the factors the team does not make big moves forward. This season they might not get the division handed to them by default.


NC South
Trois-Rivieres Oilers
Angelland Lions
Letaidans
Paxtang Black Panthers
At the moment this division looks packed, but there are problems underneath. The Oilers are likely to win this division, thanks to a fast decline of Letaidans and some other factors. With 3 meaningful games, maybe 5, they have a quite packed schedule compared to others.
At #2 I see the Panthers, thanks to experience and a big question mark on the Lions. They will meet on Saturday already, which might become a Lions win, but in the long run, the Lions do look not good, so I think the Panthers will leapfrog them anyway.
The Lions do have a problem and that is their wage sum. They are at almost 9 mio for players and if they don't have big savings, they will run into financial trouble fast. But to be fair, I don't know their situation and maybe they can sustain this level for a season or more. Then they are absolutely able to finish at #2.
Letaidans did not log in since 2 weeks and did mess up their roster. Even if they log in again, they will drop in strength heavily.


NC West
Osler Rotties
KAFakofers
Aloha State Warriors
Poznan Knights
The Rotties will finish here #1, they have a stronger team and will likely sweep KAFakofers.
KAFakofers on the other hand don't have to fear the rest, since they are new or as new. They did also not prolong a big bunch of players, so are likely weaker than last season.
Aloha State Warriors is brand new, but do have the benefit to (likely) build a team, which the Knights do decline since a few seasons. So likely Warriors with a few wins #3.
And the Knights get the rest, with a few wins against BOTs.


My standing picks:

AC
Black Dragons
Leverkusen Leopards
Torchwood Aliens
Arizona Hummingbirds

Roll Badge 2.0
Toronto Thunder

MK Saints
Dan1983m
Orono Ancient Snappers
Roq-A-Bloq

NC
Trois-Rivieres Oilers
Burnaby Bruisers
Osler Rotties
birney's weekenders

Paxtang Black Panthers
KAFakofers

Angelland Lions
SARMIS
Letaidans
Southern Meerkats
Aloha State Warriors
Poznan Knights

Playoffs
Wildcards
Toronto Thunder @ Torchwood Aliens
Roll Badge 2.0 @ Arizona Hummingbirds
Paxtang Black Panthers @ birney's weekenders
KAFakofers @ Osler Rotties

Divisional Playoffs
Toronto Thunder @ Black Dragons
Roll Badge 2.0 @ Leverkusen Leopards
Paxtang Black Panthers @ Trois-Rivieres Oilers
Osler Rotties @ Burnaby Bruisers

Conference Championship Games
Leverkusen Leopards @ Black Dragons
Burnaby Bruisers @ Trois-Rivieres Oilers

Bowl
Black Dragons vs Trois-Rivieres Oilers
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jack6
Leverkusen Leopards

Germany   jack6 owns a supporter account   jack6 is a Knight of RedZoneAction.org

Joined: 2011-09-05/S00
Posts: 7131
Top Manager



 
posted: 2022-09-21 12:19:12 (ID: 100169575) Report Abuse
jpnwrt wrote:
Do all physicals have to be 49-50, for the Elite calibre player, regardless of the position? For example for TE, wouldn't it be enough, say, 45/45?
Or am I misreading the discussion in another thread (with Dumbarajko), and what he meant was for _OL/DL_ Str 49+ is a must. NOT - for a KR. And neither Spe 49 for DE.

For example I had sacrificed $2.5k and scouted a player on Pete's roster. And not only Str was significantly below 45, but another skill which I've read needs to be close to max, too.
Obviously it's better to have everything 50 than not have, but the question is - is the difference between say 48 and 49, like, 20% better chance to perform, or is it closer to (49-48)/50=2%... ;-)

This depends on who you ask.
Many say exactly that. 49-50 or bust. And often those managers do win the big titles, so they might be right here.
But the difference is not much between a 45-ish OL and a 50-ish OL, when all other skills are the same.
I do say for myself that I want 45+ on the most needed physical skill.
The higher the better and of cause 50/50 is nice, but a) finding the monsters is hard and having them in addition the 'right' INT and TW is almost impossible.
If I remember correctly, a value of ZERO = 0 is 75% of the max value. So the remaining 50 points on skill do translate in max 25% stronger or faster.
Means 49 to 50 is 0.5% increase.
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jpnwrt
Orono Ancient Snappers

Usa   jpnwrt owns a supporter account   jpnwrt acts as Mentor for beginners

Joined: 2022-07-22/S48
Posts: 377
Top Manager



 
posted: 2022-09-21 12:19:22 (ID: 100169576)  Edits found: 2 Report Abuse


EDIT: The one above is for the predictions.
Here's one for the anwer to my question

EDIT2: both claimable upon your next visit in Warsaw, PL, just send me a pm ahead

Last edited on 2022-09-21 12:27:24 by jpnwrt

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jack6
Leverkusen Leopards

Germany   jack6 owns a supporter account   jack6 is a Knight of RedZoneAction.org

Joined: 2011-09-05/S00
Posts: 7131
Top Manager



 
posted: 2022-09-21 12:41:57 (ID: 100169580) Report Abuse
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Captain Jack
posted: 2022-09-22 11:16:43 (ID: 100169647) Report Abuse
@Jack6 - thanks for your predictions. As far as the Aliens are concerned I think you are right - it will be a tough season but we still expect to be competitive. I have had to make some tough decisions, which were not always ideal but I think I am getting finance under control now. It may take a couple of seasons to get back to our former glory but at least we will be compettiive, I hope, for now.
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Captain Jack
posted: 2022-09-22 11:19:30 (ID: 100169648) Report Abuse
Welcome to all our new Monarchs teams:

dmajors5 (Romeoville Knights)
Rudy2006 (Louisville Dragons)
Sxcalibur1 (Heatwave)
Perriman (Southern Meerkats)
Roqabloq (Roq-A-Bloq)
haynbuddah (Aloha State Warriors)
CartmanSP (Poruba Jeremies)

We hope you enjoy life here. If there is something you want to know ask here or feel free to send me a PM.

- and thanks to jpnwrt for introducing everyone!

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jack6
Leverkusen Leopards

Germany   jack6 owns a supporter account   jack6 is a Knight of RedZoneAction.org

Joined: 2011-09-05/S00
Posts: 7131
Top Manager



 
posted: 2022-09-22 11:41:14 (ID: 100169649) Report Abuse
Captain Jack wrote:
Welcome to all our new Monarchs teams:

dmajors5 (Romeoville Knights)
Rudy2006 (Louisville Dragons)
Sxcalibur1 (Heatwave)
Perriman (Southern Meerkats)
Roqabloq (Roq-A-Bloq)
haynbuddah (Aloha State Warriors)
CartmanSP (Poruba Jeremies)

We hope you enjoy life here. If there is something you want to know ask here or feel free to send me a PM.

- and thanks to jpnwrt for introducing everyone!


Don't want to spoil the fun, but Romeoville Knights can't be found in D1, same for Louisville Dragons and Heatwave.
Southern Meerkats are a returning team, and do login so far.
Roq-A-Bloq is right now roughly a week apart from falling BOT.
Aloha State Warriors are active so far.
Poruba Jeremies are already BOT.

Means, from that list 2 teams will likely survive so far.

If you want to DO something, I suggest to do PMs, instead of forum posts.
Some manager do find the forum only after ages or they do not read it on purpose. A PM is a close a you can get.

But you have to face the fact that the game is fighting an uphill battle against inactivity since many years and every season there are less and less teams.
Of every new team, 80% or so do not play further after registration.
Once you won them for a few weeks, the chances get better.
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jpnwrt
Orono Ancient Snappers

Usa   jpnwrt owns a supporter account   jpnwrt acts as Mentor for beginners

Joined: 2022-07-22/S48
Posts: 377
Top Manager



 
posted: 2022-09-22 13:03:48 (ID: 100169651)  Edits found: 1 Report Abuse
May take a while, especially for someone not returning to the game, to realize there is Monarch life above 2nd div forum. Took me a while, at least.
And it's true that it was really encouraging to receive 2 PM's during the first days of my RZA career (from Shadow and from Jack).
I had tried to do the same, sending pm's the same day I received the "welcome the new team" notice, to Perriman and I think Roq-a-bloq. Rather than misleading them with my deep thoughts about how the game works, I decided to simply point them to the same excellent source of knowledge I was pointed to - blogs of both of the above.
But either I was too excited in my welcome, or they don't speak English, or they don't speak my version of English - no reply from either.

Last edited on 2022-09-22 13:05:06 by jpnwrt

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jack6
Leverkusen Leopards

Germany   jack6 owns a supporter account   jack6 is a Knight of RedZoneAction.org

Joined: 2011-09-05/S00
Posts: 7131
Top Manager



 
posted: 2022-09-22 13:16:36 (ID: 100169652) Report Abuse
jpnwrt wrote:
May take a while, especially for someone not returning to the game, to realize there is Monarch life above 2nd div forum. Took me a while, at least.
And it's true that it was really encouraging to receive 2 PM's during the first days of my RZA career (from Shadow and from Jack).
I had tried to do the same, sending pm's the same day I received the "welcome the new team" notice, to Perriman and I think Roq-a-bloq. Rather than misleading them with my deep thoughts about how the game works, I decided to simply point them to the same excellent source of knowledge I was pointed to - blogs of both of the above.
But either I was too excited in my welcome, or they don't speak English, or they don't speak my version of English - no reply from either.

Don't take it personal.
The usual usecase with new users is, they did register to have a look and then most do not like it for several reasons.
And nobody did find a solution for that kind of behavior.
And that has not much to do with RZA itself, many of those 'free to sign' applications have the same problem. It's like handing out flyers in the shopping mall, most don't read it and the return is a single digit amount in % who does something with the info.
Same here.
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jpnwrt
Orono Ancient Snappers

Usa   jpnwrt owns a supporter account   jpnwrt acts as Mentor for beginners

Joined: 2022-07-22/S48
Posts: 377
Top Manager



 
posted: 2022-09-22 13:29:40 (ID: 100169653) Report Abuse
I haven't And nobody says someone registered for the US team _must_ be fluent in English. There are fora in other languages, if I am not mistaken.

I will keep sending PM's, but I'll try to limit it to very few words, and a couple of useful links.

EDIT: I'll definitely try to keep in check my specific sense of humour and the need to share it with others, on their first contact with RZA. Let them catch the hook firmly, first.
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