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Main / RZA Elite League / RZA Elite Season 56 Search Forum
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Olband
Missouri Misery

Usa

Joined: 2020-05-11/S38
Posts: 538
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posted: 2024-05-21 20:12:13 (ID: 100184002) Report Abuse
It's a little early in the season, but here's the early Adjusted Point Differential rankings for the league. This is based on how well a team plays against opponents compared to how others in the league fared against them. As the season progresses and more games are played, (more data) the rankings will be refined.

mystics 20.3
KMN Mandalorians 17.6
People Republic of Yorkshire 15.4
Stone Mountain Hawks 2 14.1
San Diego Blitz 11.2
Space Kraken 9.8
Chelt Nam Bobbers 8.4
Sunrise City Prarie Dogs 8.3
TigerCats 7.8
Black Dragons 6.3
Social Distance Runners 5.8
Mustangs 5.1
Dumbarajko Elephants 4.7
Bracciano Lakers 3.6
H2TAGIT4Q 2.9
Sydney Sea Eagles 2.1
BobBoy Magpies 2
Glastonbury Grail Knights 0.8
Paris Guardians 0.6
Melittlemenon thepitchhitchin 0.4
Brookfield Ukies -2
Missouri Misery -2.8
Rio Galaxy -4.3
Air Force Falcons -5.3
Burnaby Bruisers -6.9
HAMBURG SEA LIONS -9
Gilets Jaunes -12.3
Non Ducor Duco -12.5
Jager -13.8
Hemet Hooligans -14.7
Suchdol Minors -17.3
Irish Giants -38.5

And here's the Strength of Schedule of games already played, based on the same data:
Missouri Misery 10.3
Irish Giants 9
Glastonbury Grail Knights 8.9
San Diego Blitz 6.6
Dumbarajko Elephants 5.1
Rio Galaxy 4.5
Sydney Sea Eagles 4.1
Non Ducor Duco 3.2
Chelt Nam Bobbers 3.1
TigerCats 3
Social Distance Runners 2.7
H2TAGIT4Q 1.5
Melittlemenon thepitchhitchin 1.4
Air Force Falcons 1.3
Burnaby Bruisers 0.9
mystics 0.9
Jager 0.4
BobBoy Magpies 0.3
Mustangs -0.6
Black Dragons -1.5
Suchdol Minors -1.9
Paris Guardians -2.2
HAMBURG SEA LIONS -2.4
Brookfield Ukies -4
Hemet Hooligans -4.4
Stone Mountain Hawks 2 -4.9
Bracciano Lakers -5
Space Kraken -5.2
Sunrise City Prarie Dogs -6.7
People Republic of Yorkshire -8.2
KMN Mandalorians -8.6
Gilets Jaunes -8.6
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Olband
Missouri Misery

Usa

Joined: 2020-05-11/S38
Posts: 538
Top Manager



 
posted: 2024-05-21 20:23:07 (ID: 100184003) Report Abuse
And based on those rankings, here are the spreads of the more interesting upcoming games on Saturday: (negative spread means home team is favored)

Chelt Nam Bobbers @ San Diego Blitz -6
KMN Mandalorians @ mystics -6
Social Distance Runners @ Black Dragons -4
Sunrise City Prarie Dogs @ Paris Guardians 5

Will the Doggies remain the only unbeaten team?
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Chrill
HAMBURG SEA LIONS

Germany   Chrill owns a supporter account

Joined: 2022-08-07/S48
Posts: 820
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posted: 2024-05-21 20:32:02 (ID: 100184004) Report Abuse
Wow!

I have no idea how you came up with those numbers, but thanks for putting the effort into this...
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ptdoc2017
Sunrise City Prairie Dogs

Usa   ptdoc2017 owns a supporter account

Joined: 2017-05-16/S25
Posts: 935
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posted: 2024-05-21 22:00:01 (ID: 100184005) Report Abuse
Olband wrote:
And based on those rankings, here are the spreads of the more interesting upcoming games on Saturday: (negative spread means home team is favored)

Chelt Nam Bobbers @ San Diego Blitz -6
KMN Mandalorians @ mystics -6
Social Distance Runners @ Black Dragons -4
Sunrise City Prarie Dogs @ Paris Guardians 5

Will the Doggies remain the only unbeaten team?


Guardians are certainly capable of making it interesting
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pete
H2TAGIT4Q

Europe   pete owns a supporter account   pete is a Knight of RedZoneAction.org

Joined: 2011-09-01/S00
Posts: 20563
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posted: 2024-05-21 22:32:32 (ID: 100184006) Report Abuse
Nice number crunching, Olband.
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Dumbarajko
Dumbarajko Elephants

Serbia   Dumbarajko owns a supporter account

Joined: 2016-04-24/S21
Posts: 1117
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posted: 2024-05-22 00:36:18 (ID: 100184009) Report Abuse
Dumbarajko wrote:
If I survive in Elite with Pete playing against me it will be a great success


After so so so many seasons really can't get it how 34 catch, 32 agi, 29 pos pretty stupid guy with 29.7 int can get 21 cathes in a game with only two drops playing against at least 45.5 all defensive skills CBs?

And how 27.3 carrying RB can get 5.4 yards per carry in 7 carries?
Or one with 21.1 carrying RB can get 3.7 yards per carry in 7 carries?

Or how 14.1 blocking FB can get all 19 good blocks in a game?

And how a 70% defense can shoutout 82+ offense in 35 minutes?

Or how can 60% and 73% score more points than a lot of teams with 85%+ offense agains 83%+ defenses?

Lots of how how how how how.

Season 48 it comes to life again.

And will live all the way in 56.

Lots of thinking ahead for me and my team.
Once again there is something so simple in this game and we are not seeing it.

Only one person know.

But as I said once in forum, you can love this game or you can leave this game.

It is up to each one of us.

Each time it is so frustrating when I see skills of team that beats me.

And I just can't leave my thoughts just for me.

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punch drunk
J├Ąger

Usa

Joined: 2014-12-05/S15
Posts: 1571
Top Manager



 
posted: 2024-05-22 04:01:58 (ID: 100184011)  Edits found: 1 Report Abuse
Mr elephant.

As far as I can put together player individual skills have very little to do with outcomes. Just expenses. The weighting of skills vs other tangibles are wrong. IMO.

Mr Duck left here with the exact same frustration.

Last edited on 2024-05-22 04:04:34 by punch drunk

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Uaschitschun
Paris Guardians

France   Uaschitschun owns a supporter account

Joined: 2022-03-28/S46
Posts: 133
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posted: 2024-05-22 07:17:22 (ID: 100184014) Report Abuse
ptdoc2017 wrote:
Olband wrote:
And based on those rankings, here are the spreads of the more interesting upcoming games on Saturday: (negative spread means home team is favored)

Chelt Nam Bobbers @ San Diego Blitz -6
KMN Mandalorians @ mystics -6
Social Distance Runners @ Black Dragons -4
Sunrise City Prarie Dogs @ Paris Guardians 5

Will the Doggies remain the only unbeaten team?


Guardians are certainly capable of making it interesting


Thanks, but your team seems really stronger than mine. We had a great opening with 4 wins and 1 loss in overtime, but we were unable to stop magpies offense yesterday.

Great job with all this numbers Olband!
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HH_KMN
KMN Mandalorians

Germany   HH_KMN owns a supporter account

Joined: 2022-01-21/S46
Posts: 199
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posted: 2024-05-22 10:38:01 (ID: 100184019) Report Abuse
Dumbarajko wrote:
[....


Mate,

I have been in your shoes and have been frustrated as hell and first off, I agree with you that the skills on which we work on for seasons should have a bigger outcome on the game. However it is not so easy.

And to be fair, Pete has mentioned over and over again that he intended to create a game where on any given Sunday a lower team can beat a better team.

And he has reason. In many football games out there, put a player with a high single skill (mostly speed) in a certain situation and he can flat out dominate games. I have had 15 sacks a game or 350 receiving yards on another really good Football Simulation. Football is awfully complex to simulate, there are gonna be loopholes,

Back to RZA: Never judge any outcome just on snaps of a single game. Far to few records and random influence is on every play. Over the course of the season, your 45 skill players will fare better than 35 skill players. But skills are just one part of the equation.

You see the same guys battle for the championship every season, so over the course of the season, luck evens out, but you still can lose to a team not making glaring mistakes on any given Sunday


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Olband
Missouri Misery

Usa

Joined: 2020-05-11/S38
Posts: 538
Top Manager



 
posted: 2024-05-22 11:47:22 (ID: 100184022) Report Abuse
Amen KMN! Well described.
I had a thread about this a while back, suggesting that (at least for single games) luck is a far bigger decider than playbook. With even teams, the one with a better playbook can get beat by dumb luck. And yep, as stated so eloquently, any given Sunday a lame team can catch lightning in a bottle and come out on top. (I did it against TigerCats 1st game of the season... had no business winning that one.) They're just not going to do it 10 out of 16 games. Random events come in clumps, but the numbers do even out with enough instances.
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