2024-10-16 09:02

A bit more than half of the Season is over, and I will start to cover the consequences.

The biggest problem with college football is, that we have 100+ teams and the complicated schedule they do play until they have found their conference champion, if a team even is in conference playing for such or even in a conference at all (5 teams have no chance to play for a conference championship, the 2 PAC-12 teams and the 3 Independent teams).

And then there is the quite complicated bowl-season after the champions of the conferences are found.

So, I will try to make some spotlights here.

I start with the Conferences, which start to get in shape, unfortune, because of the complicated schedule, the picture is still blurry at best. Some teams have half of the conference schedule already done, some still have 75% in the future, which opens up room for possibilities and options.

I will track the leading teams, right now those are unbeaten within the conference and then the teams with 1 loss more than the leading teams. With the season going forward I will adjust, but normally I will only cover the leading teams and then the teams with 1 loss behind them.

American Athletic Conference
A bit surprising, the conference is right now led by Army and Navy, followed by North Texas, Tulane and Charlotte. All of them are unbeaten.
With 1 loss behind them are Memphis and East Carolina.

In my preview I had UTSA and South Florida in the mix as contender, but UTSA is having a bad season so far (2-4 overall and 0-2 inside the conference) and will need a lot of strength and luck to eventually get back in contention. A negative surprise for sure.
South Florida has the same result (2-4 and 0-2) and did also not perform well so far.

I'm having a hard time to name the most positive surprising teams, but the 2 academies are likely the candidates. Both are now (after the gameday) ranked and unbeaten. I did expect them to have good season, and their schedule is not really tough, but SEEING them where they are now is still a positive surprise. But both teams are having some tougher games coming up in the remaining season and I have doubts they stay unbeaten until the end.

Atlantic Coast Conference
The ACC has a quite strange look right now.
Clemson, Miami, Pittsburgh and SMU are leading as unbeaten inside the conference teams the pack.
As 1-loss teams right behind them are Louisville, Syracuse, Virginia, Duke, Boston College and Virginia Tech.

As you can see, the field is quite large, right now.

My preview had a contenders Florida State, NC State and North Carolina in the list and those 3 did play so far a very disappointing season. FSU is 1-5 overall and 1-4 inside the conference. That is a catastrophe for the school. NC State and UNC are both 3-4 overall and 0-3. That's not good, far from it, but they still have a good chance to get into a bowl, if they turn the season around. The conference title game is very likely a dream for coming seasons, but not this year.
But for FSU, we are talking about a complete meltdown with no bowl, very likely.

As positive surprise I see Pittsburgh, which I had in the lower third of the conference and they are right now almost at the top, unbeaten and ranked. Tough games are coming soon, and I still have doubts, they will survive at the top, but a bowl spot is already secured and that will very likely be a very good one.

Big-12 Conference
The BIG-12 is wide open and not many teams do look like a clear contender.

Unbeaten inside the conference we have BYU, Iowa State and Texas Tech.
Next behind them with 1-loss we have Kansas State, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Colorado and West Virginia.

I had a prime contender not on the above list, Utah, which is right now 4-2 overall, but 1-2 inside the conference. They are not 100% out of the race, but way behind. They do not perform the way it was expected, and they do also from my point of view not perform the way they did in the past 2 to 3 seasons. But they lost their starting QB, so likely they will not recover.
Also, Oklahoma State was high on the list, which are right now 3-3 overall and 0-3 inside the conference, which does almost for certain eliminate them from the contenders list.
Then there is Kansas, which did play great last season, but are 1-5 and 0-3 this season. A major setback.

Positive surprises are almost the whole leading group, but stunning is BYUs success so far. If they can keep that up, the coach is a major candidate for coach of the year.

BIG10 Conference
The BIG10 is led by undefeated teams from Indiana, Oregon and Penn State.
With 1-loss behind them are Illinois, Ohio State, Nebraska, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin.

I had USC in the contenders list in my preview and the Trojan did just not perform well, so far. They are 3-3 overall and 1-3 inside the conference. By that, likely out of contention for a conference championship, but still in a race for a bowl. But in L.A. that's not the goal, that's the minimum achievement and then it better be not a pity bowl spot. So, big disappointment so far.

Biggest positive surprises are Illinois and Indiana. Illinois with 5-1 and 2-1 is much better than expected and Indiana as 6-0 and 3-0 team is absolutely a stunner. Illinois will likely get a big check with reality the next few gamedays, while Indiana will likely have to wait until November to actually see their limits. Still great turnarounds so far.

Conference USA
Inside the conference there are a lot of unbeaten teams so far, led by Liberty, Sam Houston, Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State.
With 1 loss behind are FIU, LT and Kennesaw State, even the last team is not allowed to play postseason.

The CUSA has no real positive or negative surprises. The teams are quite in line with my preview.

Still, if Sam Houston would finish 2nd and get to the championship game, it would be a small surprise.

Mid-American Conference
The MAC is led by unbeaten Buffalo, Ohio and Western Michigan.
Behind them with 1 loss are Toledo, NIU, Miami (OH), Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan and Bowling Green.
That are a lot of teams still in the mix and all favorites from my preview have already a loss.

Most surprising in a negative way is no team, but in a positive way it is Buffalo, who I had quite low in the mix, but who are right now 4-2 overall and 2-0 in the conference. They face 3 of the contender teams in the next few weeks, and then we will see, how good they are really. But a bowl spot seems very likely now and maybe they ARE good and will play for the championship.

Mountain West Conference
The MWC is also wide open, and led by perfect teams Boise State, UNLV, San Diego State and Colorado State.
The list of 1-loss-teams contains San Jose State, Fresno State, New Mexico, Nevada and Wyoming.
But that list will shrink fast in the next few weeks, since many of those teams did not really play well so far but had not so many conference games yet.

Air Force is the most disappointing team in this conference with 1-5 overall and 0-3 inside the conference. The team was supposed to be in the contenders mix but did fail big time against many likely weak teams and lost 5 in a row so far. A bowl game is very tough to reach from here.

Most surprising in a positive way is San Jose State at 4-2 overall and 2-1 in the conference. The team was quite low on my list and did some nice games so far, but most of the tough games are coming now. Not sure they stay in the contender list and even a bowl seems to be in reach, but hard work to get to.

Southeastern Conference
The new look SEC is led by Texas A&M, Texas and LSU as teams with no loss so far inside the conference.
Then there are as 1-loss-teams Georgia, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Tennessee and Missouri.
Right now, the conference looks a bit like a mess, since the usual suspects are in company with some unexpected guests and only time will tell, who will stay and who will go.

Biggest negative surprise is Auburn at 2-4 and 0-3. The Tigers were supposed to do a big step forward and did so far not do anything like that. They were not supposed to be contenders, but also for sure not supposed to be at the bottom of the SEC.

Biggest surprise by far is Vanderbilt. 4-2 and 2-1 for a team, which is usually a big W in the schedule of almost every opponent. I'm right now sure they will not play for the title, but I think they will spoil the fun for some more teams, and they will play in a bowl.
And another big surprise is the great results Texas A&M does get so far. 5-1 and 3-0 is very impressive under the new HC. The remaining schedule is not THAT challenging, but they need to win against LSU and Texas to stay in the hunt for a championship game spot.

Sun Belt Conference
The SBC has still 2 divisions and that might lead to some strange setup in the championship game.
The East is led by perfect Georgia Southern, followed by a lot of 1-loss teams, James Madison, Coastal Carolina, Marshall and Old Dominion.
The West is led by Louisiana-Monroe, Louisiana and Texas State as unbeaten teams and are followed by Arkansas State and South Alabama with 1 loss each.

Appalachian State is the negative example in this conference with 2-4 and 0-3 as results so far. They are supposed to be a top contender, did play for the championship last season, but so far, the season does just not work. They have a canceled game, which will likely not be re-scheduled, so they have to get at least the 4 wins out of the remaining 5 games to get to a bowl. Very hard.

As positive example we have Louisiana-Monroe with 5-1 and 3-0. That team has a new HC this season and he took over a 2-10 team and did so far manage to do THAT with THIS team? I could imagine the HC won't be long there, since if he can do THIS HERE, what can he do with a better program?

That's it for the conference.

The playoff race is in full pursuit, but right now the list is changing so heavily, that it doesn't make sense to highlight something. Remember that 5 conference champs are in and 7 at large and the top 4 conference champs will have a bye week.

Bowl eligible teams
So far 9 teams did get 6+ countable wins.
Miami, Indiana (after week 6), Army, Pittsburgh, BYU, Iowa State, Oregon, Penn State and Texas (after week 7)

If I did count correctly 78 bowl spots, including the quarterfinals of the playoffs (1st round are non-bowl-games and half finals and finale are filled from within) are available.

Let's have a look at the featured games.

The BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 7

Sat. Oct 12
#1 Texas vs #18 Oklahoma
Oh, this can go fast.
Texas came in and left Oklahoma without any chance to win this.
Oklahoma did score 1st in the game, a field goal, and then never again.
For Texas a very satisfying result, for Oklahoma a tough one to swallow.
#1 Texas 34 vs #18 Oklahoma 3 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 17-4

#2 Ohio State @ #3 Oregon
This must have hurt the Buckeyes fans.
They did trail by 1 point at the half, 21:22.
Then no team was able to pull away and Ohio State did score the go-ahead-field-goal with 6 minutes left to play.
Ducks marched over the field and were able to kick a field goal with under 2 minutes to play to get the 1-point-lead.
Ohio State was luck, the Ducks were basically on the front door, but were stopped on the 1-yard-line and decided to kick.
So, OSU got the ball back, 1:47 left to play and they got some plays. The most important one, they got to Oregons 21-yard-line, but thanks to a pass interference call against OSU, they were sent back beyond a realistic field goal chance.
Three plays later the time ran out and the game was won by the Ducks by 1 point.
This might bite OSU a lot later in the season.
#2 Ohio State 31 @ #3 Oregon 32 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 17-5

#9 Ole Miss @ #13 LSU
And another game, which went wrong (to my pick).
Ole Miss was on course, led 17:13 at the half.
LSU miss a field goal after the half and Ole Miss was able to extend the lead, but LSU did answer.
When then Ole Miss did throw an INT, it did look like a turnaround could happen, but LSU did throw also an INT, so no harm.
Ole Miss did extend the lead again to 7 points and this time LSU did answer big time by scoring a TD to tie the game with less than 30 ticks to play.
The game went to OT.
And here the great Ole Miss offense, quite ineffective the whole game, did again fail and was held to a field goal.
LSU came on the field and needed ONE play to score TD and win the game.
For Ole Miss, this was a big setback, maybe the knockout for a playoff spot. But likely not, if they win from now on.
For LSU the win means a return to the playoff table, and they are now quite high in the conference.
#9 Ole Miss 26 @ #13 LSU 29 (OT) -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 17-6

And some other interesting games:

Fri. Oct 11
#16 Utah @ Arizona State
I did fear Utah would fall, and they did.
Utah did play catchup almost the whole game and late in the game it did look like they would finally turn the game, but every time they did score on the next drive ASU did also, and often better than Utah. Arizona State won 27:19.
Jacks interesting games Score: 12-9

Sat. Oct 12
#4 Penn State @ USC
USC did lead 20:6 at the half.
Then Penn State did score more often, and the game enter a phase, where the game was tied, or USC was leading by 3 to 7 points. But Penn State did answer on every drive afterwards and tied the game again.
On the last USC drive, the Trojans were intercepted, and it did look like Penn State would finally win, only to be intercepted on the last play of the quarter as well.
So, OT was on, and USC did get the ball, tried a lot and missed the field goal try.
Penn State got the ball, tried a lot and did hit the field goal to win this 33:30 in OT.
Great win for Penn State, bad loss for USC.
Jacks interesting games Score: 13-9

California @ #22 Pittsburgh
This must have been a nail biter for the Pitt fans, but it went OK.
The Panthers were leading at half 17:9.
The 3rd quarter was all defense and then did Cal score a TD early in the 4th but failed the 2-pointer. 17:15 now.
Pitt was unable to do something, Cal did something and came into field goal range, but missed the 40 yarder.
Pitt again helpless on offense and Cal tried to get over the field with 40 ticks left to play, but failed big time, so Pitt won by 2.
Jacks interesting games Score: 14-9

And some more funny result of week 7:

- Northwestern did win against Maryland, 37:10, while they were a 10.5 underdog. Not bad, but the team still needs more wins to get out of this bad hole the coach change did dig them.
- Alabama needed all they had to win against South Carolina 27:25. Alabama did get a lot of heat after their loss against Vanderbilt and that weak win will not help to turn the fans happy again.
- Tennessee won against Florida in OT, 23:17. For the Gators a very bad loss, since I think a win here could have turned the fans and maybe the administration back into the keep-the-coach-corner, but this loss ... I think that keep-the-coach-corner is empty right now.
- Kansas State needed their last drive but did win against Colorado 31:28. The Buffs lost one of their star players to injury, which might cost them some wins, if he stays out for longer.
- Illinois was lucky, but won again Purdue in OT, 50:49. Illinois did tie the game with a field goal when time expired, got the 1st offense drive and scored a TD. Purdue did get the ball, scored a TD also, but did not go for the XP and instead tried to win by a 2-point-conversion. The QB got sacked on that play and Illinois won.
- Iowa did surprisingly find their offense and won against Washington 40:16. Not a good game for the Huskies and maybe Iowa knows now, how to score?
- Miami (OH) won against Eastern Michigan 38:14, on the road. The Eagles did look so far quite solid, but that loss will hurt for long time.
- Nevada did beat Oregon State, 42:37. For Nevada a very important win, even it is only a non-conference game win, since they need all they can get to at least get to bowl and their season did look bad so far. Maybe that win will spark a turnaround.
- Vanderbilt is this season very serious and won again, against Kentucky this time, 20:13. Well, some tough games will come up in November for sure, so I still don't see them winning it all, still they will likely go to a bowl.
- Minnesota did win against UCLA, on the road, 21:17. It looks like Minnesota gains some good wins and even I don't see them contending, they will likely get a good bowl spot.

That's it for week 7.

As you can see in the conference, the competition is heating up and basically every week now dreams do stay alive or fall apart.

The BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 8

Sat. Oct 19
#7 Alabama @ #11 Tennessee
This seems to be a tough choice.
Alabama did not play well the past 2 games, lost to Vanderbilt and almost lost to South Carolina. If you are realistic, they did also almost blow the Georgia game and now they have to play at Tennessee this rivalry game.
The Vols did play OK against Oklahoma, lost to Arkansas and did need OT to win against Florida.
Vegas has Alabama ahead by 3.0 points.
Both teams have a lot of potential, but I have doubts any of them will be at the end in the Championship game.
Playoffs? Maybe.
Alabama lives and dies with their offense, if their QB has a great day, they are almost unstoppable, but if he has issues, the team has issues.
Their defense did also not show the strength it has under their former HC, so Tennessee has chances to score.
But they did play not great against other non-top-teams from the SEC.
I think this will either be short of points, if both offenses do struggle, or it will be a high scoring game.
I'm torn between the home factor for Tennessee and the so far slightly better performance of Alabama.
I do throw a coin and ask my gut ...
Volunteers win.

#24 Michigan @ #22 Illinois
A very interesting game here.
Michigan as reigning National Champion has some issues with their new HC. Their lost twice so far, against Texas in September and last week against Washington.
Most games they did play so far were quite close, win or loss.
They travel to Illinois to play against a team, which did start very well. The Illini did only lose to Penn State end of September and that was only by 2 scores.
This is not the same Illinois team of the past, as it seems.
Last weeks OT win against Purdue was a small surprise, since Purdue is not the best team so far, so it was expected Illinois would win on a higher margin.
Now, they play Michigan, but at home.
Vegas has the Wolverines at -3.0, so the home team is the underdog.
I expect a very close game here.
If Michigan get their offense going on passing, Illinois has a problem. If not, Illinois will likely shut down the running game more often and will win.
Hard to predict, but I prefer Illinois right now.
Illini win.

#8 LSU @ Arkansas
When LSU did lose their season starter to USC I though LSU would have a tough season ahead of them.
But they did recover, did win all games since then and the win against Ole Miss last week in OT was a game, which did lift them back into the contender seat.
They visit Arkansas, which seem to be a team, which is not easy to play this season.
The Razorbacks did lose twice so far, against Oklahoma State (which seems to be a surprise with the current state of the Cowboys, but it was in early September) and end of September against Texas A&M.
They did beat Tennessee last week.
So, LSU should be aware that this team can make them fall.
The betting line is LSU -2.5, which is not much.
My biggest concern is the Arkansas offense.
They did not score a lot since many games, and they should have also a hard time to score against LSU.
And LSUs QB is getting better, in every game.
I expect LSU to win this, but it will be a tough game.
Tigers win.

#5 Georgia @ #1 Texas
With so many nice games coming, I had to add this game as extra (or better one of the others is the extra, since THIS is the top game of the week).
Georgia does look strong, but beatable and they lost to Alabama end of September.
Since then, they did regain their strength status, but now they face Texas, which did so far not show ANY weakness.
Even the injury of the starting QB did not slow them down, so Texas is favored by 3.5 points, which is for Georgia since a few seasons an uncommon role.
What really will hurt them in this game is their offense.
They did not score too much so far, and I expect Texas to find a few holes in the Georgia defense and if Georgia has to play catchup (which I expect them to do most of the game), they will get into trouble.
Longhorns win.

And some other interesting games:

Sat. Oct 19
#6 Miami @ Louisville
This I will make quite short.
Miami is right now the hottest team from the ACC, while Louisville did lose against Notre Dame and SMU back-to-back not long ago.
Miami is favored by 4.5 points, which is not that much, if you look on the results so far.
I think they will win with a higher margin.
Hurricanes win.

Nebraska @ #16 Indiana
A fun game, with Nebraska slowly getting to the level the fans and the programs thinks it does deserve or whatever.
Huskers lost only once, against Illinois in OT, while Indiana won all game.
A look on the schedule does reveal, none did play so far REAL expected contenders, so it's hard to see, where they are in strength.
But overall, I think Indiana is ahead, which Vegas does think also, giving them a 6.5 home-advantage favorite role.
We might see Nebraska on a good day, but I expect Indiana to slowly getting the upper hand and win this.
Hoosiers win.

East Carolina @ #23 Army
One of the games which will define the American.
East Carolina is not good so far, but just 1 loss behind Army.
Army is so far perfect, but with a weak schedule.
The betting line is Army -15.0, which seems a bit high.
Everything is possible, since East Carolina had ups and downs, and on an UP-day, they can take on Army, for sure.
Played at Army I do favor them to win, but in a closer game.
Black Knights win.

Ohio @ Miami (OH)
And for fun an extra game also here, with 2 contenders facing off against each other.
Ohio did play OK so far, is perfect inside the MAC, but only against weaker teams, from my point of view.
Miami (OH) did play not so good so far, lost to Toledo, but won against EMU last week and are 3.5-point favorite.
I think this will be a fun match and 50:50.
I pick Ohio here, because I think that EMU game did cost Miami some extra, but everything goes.
Bobcats win.

That's it for week 8.

'Til next time
Jack6 on BLOCK OF GRANITE

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