2024-11-13 08:20

Every gameday has now the potential to narrow down the field of contenders inside the conferences or to open up the field to something that feels like half of the conference.

I did Nostradamus that some of the conferences will come down to tiebreaker decisions and right now it looks that way.

Before we go into the details with the conferences, some developments on the coaches situations.

A quite surprising announcement came prior the gameday, when the AD of Florida did say, that HC Billy Napier will stay the coach of the Gators and that he requests patience on the transformation into the right direction. Analysts say, there are 3 factors, which did likely lead to that. The 1st is, he did hire the HC and wants him to have success, so the personal issue. The 2nd is, that a buyout of Napier alone would cost 26 million and the whole staff likely 40+ million, so a financial issue. And the 3rd is, that Napier did invest 70% of the NIL money of Florida in the Freshman and Sophomore class of the team and firing him now might shift the player field dramatically, including star players in development. On top, it means that there is still at least 1 class missing (end experience) to really making a push, so also a player issue.
All summed up, I would say, if next season the results are not having a very positive trajectory, the hot seat will warm up again and much quicker. I'm personally surprised about this, since usually in the past such results did lead to firings, regardless of what, but I can understand the side effects and I always was a friend of the old days, when a coach had time to make a lasting impact over seasons and not to win within 1 to 2 seasons, max.
But on the other hand, did the game and the business change and win-now! is absolute standard. That game of Florida against Texas was a real mess, and when you see THAT game, THAT program, as a high school player, heavily recruited, will that lead you to sign with such a program, trusting on the future development? Or will just the money make the decision? I don't know, but for sure the old days are gone.
I personally will watch the coaches market a bit more closely, whether the development on dead money payments will get some sort of reverse process, to give the school more room to adjust to bust-hirings.

While we speak about bust-hirings, another Florida program is in deep trouble and doesn't know how to get out of that, except paying tens of millions of dollars as dead money. Florida State is now 1-9 and the biggest problem the school has is, they did prolong the HC for 10 seasons, PRIOR the current one, since he won the conference last season with a perfect record (until the bowl, where the team was annihilated, thanks to all the guys who did not want to play, because it was not a semifinal). So, the HC has more or less a buyout in an amount of his whole wage until contract end, which is not an option. It did take the coach 10 games to figure out what to do, and he did fire his coordinators and the WR coach after the gameday. I'm sure that will cool down the mood here. Likely in the offseason we will see some heavy investment by FSU in buying players on NIL deals to turn the ship around.

But there was actually 1 fired HC after the gameday, with Kennesaw State getting rid of their HC Brian Bohannon. Officially the step was announced by the AD as 'stepping down' or 'resigned', but the HC did later state clearly, he had no intention to do that, the program just informed him, that a change will be made. So ... fired. Brian Bohannon did basically BUILD the football program, starting 2015 inside the FCS, won until 2021 3 times the conference and then did guide the team to the transition to FBS, in which the team started playing this season.
Yes, the team is 1-8, which is not great, but axing such a coach after that achievement with an 72-38 record overall is a tough cookie. I understand the business, but man, there has to be a better way to do that.

Let's go to the conference standings after week 11.

American Athletic Conference
Army and Tulane stayed undefeated.
The 1-loss-group does still only have Navy.
Memphis and East Carolina do lurk with 2 losses behind them, not sure they will have any chance to get back into the race.

Atlantic Coast Conference
Another unbeaten team did fall last weekend, so as unbeaten team left is SMU.
Miami did slip to the 1-loss-teams, now BEHIND Clemson.
Pittsburgh lost again and dropped to 2-losses, now sorted BEHIND Louisville. Both have to hope for another loss by the leading teams.

BIG-12 Conference
BYU had a thriller, but prevailed unbeaten as the only team inside the BIg-12.
As 1-loss-team only Colorado did stay alive, because Iowa State did play bad again.
With 2 losses are now Iowa State, Kansas State, Arizona State and West Virginia all in the waiting for some chance to get back into contention.

BIG10 Conference
The BIG10 had a strange development, since the top teams did all win and the teams with a few more losses behind them did all lose, so the contenders list did more or less separate themselves from the hopefuls (which became almost certain non-contenders).
Perfect are still Indiana and Oregon, while with 1 loss behind them are Ohio State and Penn State.
Every other team has 3 losses or more now.

Conference USA
Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State stayed unbeaten.
Sam Houston is 1-loss behind them, while Liberty is crawling behind Sam Houston as 2-loss team.

Mid-American Conference
The MAC lost their last unbeaten team and is now wide open.
Miami (OH), Ohio, Bowling Green and Western Michigan all have 1 loss.
With 2 losses behind them are Buffalo and Toledo.

Mountain West Conference
No big changes in the MWC, Boise State and Colorado State are unbeaten, while UNLV did stay as 1-loss team.
Only San Diego State did lose again and dropped to 2-losses, behind San Jose State, also with 2 losses.

Southeastern Conference
The SEC had some do-or-die-games this weekend and right now the field did shrink a bit.
Still, Tennessee, Texas A&M and Texas are leading with 1 loss each, while Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama, Missouri and LSU have 2 losses each and wait for some upset.
The only team, which did drop from the list for now entirely is Vanderbilt.

Sun Belt Conference
Georgia Southern and Marshall are leading the East with 1 loss each.
Behind them are Old Dominion and James Madison.
The West is still led by Louisiana as unbeaten team and there is no 1-loss team left in the division, which gives Louisiana almost for sure the division crown.
They have 3 division games left and need only to win 1 to seal the deal, as far as I can see it (under the assumption the others would win their games, which is unlikely).

That's it for the conferences.

Bowl eligible teams
8 additional teams got the 6th win this weekend, so now 53 teams have already bowl eligibility.

Week 6: Miami, Indiana
Week 7: Army, Pittsburgh, BYU, Iowa State, Oregon, Penn State and Texas
Week 8: Clemson, Duke, SMU, Memphis, Navy, Illinois, Kansas State, UNLV, Washington State, Texas A&M, LSU, Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri, Louisiana and Notre Dame
Week 9: Tulane, Ohio State, Colorado, Sam Houston, Boise State, Alabama, Ole Miss, James Madison
Week 10: Louisville, Syracuse, Texas Tech, Arizona State, Iowa, Minnesota, Western Kentucky, UConn, Toledo, Colorado State, Vanderbilt, Georgia Southern
Week 11: Georgia Tech, TCU, Jacksonville State, Liberty, Ohio, San Jose State, South Carolina, Marshall

78 bowl spots are available.

The BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 11

Sat. Nov 9
#4 Miami @ Georgia Tech
One of the biggest upsets of the weekend.
Miami did look bad, almost the whole game, trailed GT since mid-2nd-quarter and did finally start to catch up in the 4th quarter.
They scored a TD with 6 minutes left, stopped GT after roughly 4 minutes and got the ball back to get that final drive going.
But the star QB of Miami did fumble the ball on a sack on the 2nd play and the Yellow Jackets did recover the ball to secure the win.
Too much ego as it seems.
I did mention an upset would be possible but picked the safe bet. Damn.
#4 Miami 23 @ Georgia Tech 28 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 25-9

#2 Georgia @ #16 Ole Miss
What can I say, the game went almost as expected, only that the Georgia QB did throw only 1 INT, instead of 3.
Biggest bonus for Ole Miss was their defense on the date, because they did really good contain the UGA offense.
Slowly the Rebels did pull away and in 2nd half, the Dawgs were unable to do much.
#2 Georgia 10 @ #16 Ole Miss 28 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 26-9

#11 Alabama @ #14 LSU
This was likely my worst pick of the gameday.
Man, LSU was embarrassing.
The Tigers defense did allow the Alabama QB to run wild and gave up alone on that guy 185 yards on the ground.
He did not even have to pass, just run.
Fine, they could have just answered with a stellar performance on offense, right? No, the QB had 2 INTs, the running game broke barely 100 yards in total.
By default did LSU lose, at home, big time.
#11 Alabama 42 @ #14 LSU 13 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 26-10

And some other interesting games:

Michigan @ #8 Indiana
Indiana was the whole game in control and won this 20:15, which is a big win for that program.
The Wolverine came close to take over the game in the 4th quarter, but Indiana was able to stop Michigan a drive later, kicked a field goal on the drive afterwards and forced a pass heavy attack by Michigan, which Indiana was able to control and stop.
Jacks interesting games Score: 22-14

#18 Army @ North Texas
Oh man, North Texas was just unable to play any good offense, had 2 INTs thrown and lost 3:14 against a still unbeaten Army team.
I still don't think Army is a good team, just good enough to win, as it seems.
Jacks interesting games Score: 22-15

#19 Clemson @ Virginia Tech
VT had a better 1st half than Clemson, but did only score once, leading 7:0 to the half.
Then did Clemson turn up the volume and scored 24 unanswered points, until the Hokies realized, they were losing at home.
Well, they scored a TD late, but it was too late to turn the game. Clemson won 24:14 and is right now in best position to get into the championship game, if they win also next week against Pitt.
Jacks interesting games Score: 22-16

And some more funny result of week 11:

- Northern Illinois found their strength again and did win against so far unbeaten inside the conference Western Michigan, 42:28. That does lead right now to a 4-team-tie at the top of the MAC with each team having 1 loss in the conference.
- East Carolina won against Florida Atlantic, 49:14. The win itself is not THAT surprising, but the fact that the team is under interims coaching and since the firing the team has won 2 games in a row now. To be fair, the opponents were prior those games, 2-5 Temple and 2-6 FAU. Likely the former HC would have won those games also. Biggest challenge for the team will be the last 2 games, with North Texas (5-3) and Navy (6-2).
- Cal got their 1st ACC win against Wake Forest on the road, winning 46:36. They still need 1 more in for a bowl spot.
- UCLA did beat Iowa, 20:17. That did cut off Iowa from the contender group inside the BIG10.
- New Mexico won against San Diego State, 21:16. That sends SDSU down the standings with 3 losses in a row.
- Kansas had a high scoring game against Iowa State, but won, 45:36. That did give ISU the 2nd loss in a row and did send them from contenders to hopeful in 2 weeks.
- Virginia upset Pittsburgh, 24:19, on the road. Pittsburgh did look like a Cinderella at the start of the season, but with a struggling QB, the team did fall flat the past 2 games. Virginia needs at least another win to get to a bowl.
- San Jose State won against Oregon State, 24:13. Oregon State in a rough transition phase with their new HC. Lost now 4 in a row.
- South Carolina did beat Vanderbilt, 28:7, on the road and became by that bowl eligible. Tough loss for the Commodores, which can be seen as eliminated from the SEC contention. Their QB did by the way sue the NCAA for his eligibility time as football player. As far as I understood the claim, the NIL policy of the NCAA for redshirts and JUCO players (he did play for a JUCO team for 2 seasons) does violates a law. We will see, what happens out of this. Officially he is a Senior and that would mean, end of the season he is out of the system. I think he seeks 2 more years to play as FCS/FBS player (and earn money on that).
- Air Force won their 1st MWC game against Fresno State, 36:28. But that won't change much for the Falcons, their season will be over soon.

The 2nd committee rankings were published and because of the gameday results, there were changes. Of course.

We are still 3 gamedays away from a clear picture for the conference championship game participants and 4 gamedays away from the final committee rankings, which will set the national playoff seats in stone.

Thanks to the cloak and dagger business inside the SEC, the BIG10 does for now dominate the top ranks. #1 Oregon, #2 Ohio State, #4 Penn State and #5 Indiana. Pending any surprising upset, this will stay almost the same until Ohio State and Indiana will clash in 2 gamedays and then the championship game will sort the rest out. Chances are high, all 4 will make the playoffs, but at least 3 for sure.

The SEC is now led by #3 Texas, #7 Tennessee, #10 Alabama, #11 Ole Miss, #12 Georgia, #15 Texas A&M, #21 South Carolina, #22 LSU and #23 Missouri.
Still a lot of movement is coming and as long as the higher ranked teams do lose, the conference in total will drop and suffer in the final rankings.
At the moment the conference looks OK regarding the amount of teams send to the playoffs, but that could change fast.

The BIG-12 jumped a spot regarding the 1st team in the rankings with #6 BYU, but then comes a long time nothing until #16 Kansas State and #17 Colorado.
None of them will play against each other, so all have the chance to boost their win record and then the top 2 teams in the conference will battle it out. Right now, it looks like the conference will send only 1 team to the playoffs.

Then the teams with only a chance for an at-large-bid are coming, with #8 Notre Dame highest and then the PAC-12 team #18 Washington State, which conference will not play a championship game this season (since they only have 2 teams right now). If Washington State keeps on winning, they MIGHT squeeze in on the last 3 gamedays.

The ACC dropped a bit, when Miami lost their game last gameday. Now they are #9 Miami, followed by #14 SMU, #19 Louisville and #20 Clemson.
Right now, the ACC looks also that way, that they will send only 1 team to the playoffs, but eventually Clemson could make a big jump, if they win against South Carolina end of the season.

The Mountain West dropped in the rankings, now with #13 Boise State, which has consequences, see a bit below.

And the last teams ranked are from the American Athletics, #24 Army and #25 Tulane.

Again, assuming the highest ranked team if each conference would be the champ, we have BIG10 (Oregon), SEC (Texas), BIG-12 (BYU) and ACC (Miami) as the 4 conferences highest ranked and by that with a bye week.
As 5th conference then would be in the Mountain West champ at #13 Boise State, having a seat in the 1st round.

The last 7 seats would be filled with the highest ranked teams, which would be #2 Ohio State, #4 Penn State, #5 Indiana, #7 Tennessee, #8 Notre Dame, #10 Alabama and as last team #11 Ole Miss.

Because #13 Boise State would be in, it would no longer be the top 12 teams (like last week), so #12 Georgia would NOT be in.

Here is the big secret of the rankings so far.
It will all be turned upside down after the championship games AND we might see the 2nd best team of the conference dropping out of the playoff seats, while 3rd or 4th best team of a conference might get into it after that gameday, because that conference game loser will have an additional loss and that might lead to a heavy drop in the rankings.

Also possible is, that if a championship game is filled with a dominating team (in terms of ranking) vs an average or worse team (in terms of ranking) and the average team would win, the conference will suffer in total and might even drop out of the playoffs in total.

That sounds weird, but I have an example.
Assuming in the ACC all teams not named Miami would get some more upsets and things, still Miami, then likely ranked at #7 or so, would play the 2nd team in the standings, maybe Louisville, which lost the game against Kentucky on last gameday, now ranked #21 or so, if even that.
Of course, Miami would be favored by a mile and if they would lose THAT game, they would drop big time.
Whether than Miami or Louisville would be ranked higher after that game is open, but the rank would be #16 or worse.
And the other team below that.
Now assuming Boise State will run the table inside the MWC, they will finish better than #16.
And assuming Tulane or Army will run the table inside the AAC, the winner of the championship game would eventually leapfrog the ACC winner.
And THEN the top 5 conference would be BIG10, SEC, BIG-12, MWC and AAC and the 7 at-large-teams would come from the top 12 spots or likely less.
No ACC anymore in the playoffs.

Sounds constructed, but such upsets did happen in the past and sometimes such a result is only 1 injury away.

I will keep you updated.

The next gameday has some neck breakers in it, depended on the winning team. Here we go. (rankings are AP-rankings)

The BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 12

Sat. Nov 16
#17 Clemson @ Pittsburgh
Last conference game for Clemson and they need to win to keep the hope of getting into the ACC Championship game alive.
Right now, Clemson is ahead of Miami, but they are a conference game behind Clemson. Assuming Miami will win all games and match the record Clemson would have winning in this game here, the tiebreaker would favor Miami, since they won against Louisville, against Clemson did lose.
So far, the theory and what's at stake here.
Pittsburgh did lose 2 in a row and has right now only an outside chance to reach the Championship game, if even that.
Winning would help, for sure.
Clemson is right now favored on the road by 10.0 points, which is a lot.
Not sure it's fair, but you cannot ignore the facts.
Fact 1, Pittsburgh did look bad the past 2 games and lost against competitive teams.
Fact 2, Clemson did play bad against Louisville 2 weeks ago, but did bounce back to win on the road against VT.
Now they face a big challenge against Pitt and either they good Tigers play or the bad ones.
The key will be the Pittsburgh defense. If they play tough, Clemson will have a problem, but if they can't control the Clemson offense and let them run wild, like Pitt did let it happen against SMU, the Panthers will lose.
I'm torn between the home team, which did play a great season until 2 weeks ago and the visiting team, which did not play great in all games, but did show they are one of the top teams inside the ACC.
I'm leaning towards Clemson, just because their talent level is so high.
I hope for a close game and even a Pittsburgh win, since I like underdogs, but I pick ...
Tigers win.

#25 Tulane @ Navy
Both teams are facing tough 2 games the next gamedays.
But this one, might be the one, which will decide the standings.
Tulane is right now unbeaten inside the conference and has the inside road to the AAC Championship game.
Navy has lost a game inside the conference (Rice) and needs the win to stay in the hunt AND to get the direct compare on their side.
There is no other team with 1 loss, so assuming both teams win their last game, the direct compare will be the deciding thing.
Played on the road for Tulane, they are still 6.5-point favorite right now.
And overall, I think that's fair.
I did pick (ESPN pick game) the Bulls to won against Navy last week but failed. Still, that win was not convincing for a championship contender. They won by 3 scores, while Tulane did a bit earlier win by 5 score.
Of course, every game is different and there are reasons for scoring and not scoring, still Tulane did look overall just better, so I expect them to get the game under control early and win this.
Green Wave win.

#6 Tennessee @ #11 Georgia
Oh man, the SEC is so tight this season.
Tennessee did look like toast, when they lost to Arkansas back in the old days in October, but then did 4 in a row, including Alabama. Georgia did look like scratched, when they lost to Alabama and done, when they lost last week against Ole Miss.
Still, there is hope for Georgia, at least a bit.
They are 1 win behind Tennessee and can shove them from the top with a win here. And the other 1-loss teams ahead of them will meet against each other on season finale.
I can't say how the tiebreaker will look like and whether at the end Georgia would still make the SEC Championship game, but I can tell you, losing this game will seal the deal for Georgia NOT to make the championship game.
Tennessee on the other side needs the win to keep that 1 win ahead of many other competing teams and to avoid some strange tiebreaker scenario in which worst case 3 to 5 teams are involved.
Georgia as home team is favored, by 10.0 points.
I personally think, that is a lot for a team, which did play not consistent in the past 4 games.
Their QB did send the ball round like bonbons (9 INTs in the last 4 games) and their defense was unable to stop offenses from scoring. And Tennessee has a quite good one.
Tough to say, who will prevail here.
I'm going with Tennessee, since they did so far play more consistent than Georgia.
I now, it's in Athens, so Georgia fans will be wild and UGA in the house, but Tennessee has the strength to overcome this.
Biggest issue will be the Georgia QB.
If he has a great game, Georgia will win, but since 4 games, he does play average at best.
Volunteers win.

And some other interesting games:

James Madison @ Old Dominion
I have 2 SUN Belt games here.
This here is an eliminator game.
The winner can keep on hoping for some stuff to happen to the teams ahead of them and to get back into the ring.
The loser will be separated by at least 1 loss, more likely 2 losses, to the leaders and can concentrate on getting to a bowl.
JMU is favored by 4.0, which seems OK.
Both teams did play a bit inconsistent, but overall did James Madison look a bit better than Old Dominion.
Dukes win.

South Alabama @ Louisiana
And this is either a crowning game, or a keep-on-hoping-game.
South Alabama is 2 games behind the leading team of Louisiana in the conference.
A win for USA here would close the gap a bit AND would give the team an edge on the tiebreaker, IF Louisiana loses again.
A win by the Cajuns would mean bye-bye for South Alabama and Louisiana would be almost for certain, if not already certain, win the division.
Louisiana is surprisingly only favored by 8.5 points.
I think at home, they will win big.
Ragin' Cajuns win.

San Diego State @ UNLV
And this is no longer that great as it was, when I did s e l e c t it, prior the last gameday.
Still a nice game.
San Diego State needs wins, to get to a bowl.
I think they are out of contention for the MWC with 2 losses, but at 3-6 overall, they still have a chance to get to a bowl.
UNLV has 1 loss and needs the win to NOT being cast to the out-of-competition-group.
Played at home, UNLV is favored by 20.5 points, but that line was beaten that season already by several teams.
I think the Aztecs can win on a good day, but it is unlikely.
Rebels win.

With the upcoming gameday including, 3 gamedays left to sort out the conference championship participants.
The November will stay hot.

'Til next time
Jack6 on BLOCK OF GRANITE

Tags: Block of Granite, News