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| Main / Sea Devils / Sea Devils S63 Search Forum | |
| Navigation: |< < 1 2 3 34 35 >| | |
| Poster | Message |
| posted: 2026-02-18 12:23:51 (ID: 100197411) Report Abuse | |
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Many congrats from the Exiles, too - and good luck in Elite!
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| Quote Reply Edit | |
| posted: 2026-02-19 13:25:58 (ID: 100197436) Edits found: 1 Report Abuse | |
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I asked an AI to compare our successes in this season with our ELO and this is the result:
Method: League Success (75%) * Win percentage * Playoff progress bonus Wildcard win = +0.03 Divisional win = +0.05 Conference win = +0.08 Bowl appearance = +0.10 Bowl win = +0.15 Cup Success (25%) * Group win % * Playoff progress Quarterfinal = +0.05 Semifinal = +0.08 Final = +0.10 Cup win = +0.15 Success Score = 0.75 × League Score + 0.25 × Cup Score Overperformance = Success Score − Expected Score from ELO Expected Score = ELO / 1400 (So 1000 ELO ≈ 0.71 expectation) Higher number = more success than ELO predicts. - - - SUCCESS VS ELO RANKING 1. Konjarnik HighTowers ELO: 889 Expected: 0.64 League: 1.00 + Bowl Final bonus Cup: 0.00 Success Score: 0.83 Overperformance: +0.19 2. Devon Warriors ELO: 932 Expected: 0.67 League: 0.75 + Wildcard win Cup: 0.00 Success Score: 0.62 Overperformance: -0.05 3. Michipicoten Corsairs ELO: 928 Expected: 0.66 League: 0.75 + Playoffs Cup: 0.67 Success Score: 0.69 Overperformance: +0.03 4. Kraków Conquerors ELO: 850 Expected: 0.61 League: 0.69 + Playoffs Cup: 0.75 Success Score: 0.67 Overperformance: +0.06 5. St Pauli Packers ELO: 897 Expected: 0.64 League: 0.81 + Playoffs Cup: 0.33 Success Score: 0.69 Overperformance: +0.05 6. Wrexham Exiles ELO: 987 Expected: 0.71 League: 0.75 + Wildcard win Cup: 0.00 Success Score: 0.61 Overperformance: -0.10 7. Social Distance Runners ELO: 1191 Expected: 0.85 League: 0.88 + Bowl Final Cup: Final Success Score: 0.92 Overperformance: +0.07 8. Glasgow Tigers ELO: 1154 Expected: 0.82 League: 0.94 + Conference Final Cup: 0.00 Success Score: 0.81 Overperformance: -0.01 9. Hamburg Sea Lions ELO: 1059 Expected: 0.76 League: 0.88 + Conference Final Cup: 0.00 Success Score: 0.78 Overperformance: +0.02 10. Manta Rays ELO: 928 Expected: 0.66 League: 0.81 + Playoffs Cup: 0.67 Success Score: 0.74 Overperformance: +0.08 - - - MID TABLE 11. Yorkshire Sea-Owls ELO: 900 Expected: 0.64 Success: 0.55 Diff: -0.09 12. Northern Storm ELO: 747 Expected: 0.53 Success: 0.56 Diff: +0.03 13. Gaylord Zaleaping ELO: 681 Expected: 0.49 Success: 0.55 Diff: +0.06 - - - UNDERPERFORMERS 14. London Silverbacks ELO: 866 Expected: 0.62 Success: 0.52 Diff: -0.10 15. Seattle Sea-Reapers ELO: 859 Expected: 0.61 Success: 0.57 Diff: -0.04 16. Baltimore Blue Crabs ELO: 572 Expected: 0.41 Success: 0.46 Diff: +0.05 - - - BIGGEST OVERACHIEVERS 1. Konjarnik HighTowers +0.19 2. Manta Rays +0.08 3. Social Distance Runners +0.07 4. Kraków Conquerors +0.06 5. Gaylord Zaleaping +0.06 - - - BIGGEST UNDERACHIEVERS 1. Wrexham Exiles -0.10 2. London Silverbacks -0.10 3. Yorkshire Sea-Owls -0.09 - - - KEY INSIGHT Best team by results: Social Distance Runners Most efficient vs ELO: Konjarnik HighTowers Most "wasted" ELO: Wrexham Exiles Last edited on 2026-02-19 13:27:55 by hmpf22 |
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| Quote Reply Edit | |
| posted: 2026-02-19 13:44:28 (ID: 100197437) Report Abuse | |
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1. Konjarnik HighTowers — +0.19
2. Manta Rays — +0.08 3. Social Distance Runners — +0.07 4. Kraków Conquerors — +0.06 5. Gaylord Zaleaping — +0.06 6. St Pauli Packers — +0.05 7. Baltimore Blue Crabs — +0.05 8. Michipicoten Corsairs — +0.03 9. Northern Storm — +0.03 10. Hamburg Sea Lions — +0.02 11. Black Knights — 0.00 12. Glasgow Tigers — -0.01 13. Rome Torresina — -0.02 14. Seattle Sea-Reapers — -0.04 15. Terrifying Hamsters — -0.04 16. Devon Warriors — -0.05 17. Minnesota Minotaurs — -0.05 18. Rome Centvrions — -0.08 19. Yorkshire Sea-Owls — -0.09 20. London Silverbacks — -0.10 21. Wrexham Exiles — -0.10 22. dERBENT CONVICTS — -0.11 23. Minnesota Silver Foxes — -0.13 24. PATAGONIA RAPTORS — -0.13 25. Cincinnati Bungals — -0.24 26. Downriver Seals — -0.25 27. Fuenlabrada Falcons — -0.30 28. Badalona Cheetahs — -0.34 29. Copenhagen Chargers — -0.35 |
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| Quote Reply Edit | |
| posted: 2026-02-19 17:57:45 (ID: 100197441) Report Abuse | |
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Fascinating ! How will these results differ if the High Towers win the Bowl on Tuesday and how if my team for once takes the Bowl win ?
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| Quote Reply Edit | |
| reply Mark this thread unread | |
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| Main / Sea Devils / Sea Devils S63 | |
