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| Main / Sea Devils / Sea Devils S63 Search Forum | |
| Navigation: |< < 1 2 3 34 35 >| | |
| Poster | Message |
| posted: 2026-02-18 12:23:51 (ID: 100197411) Report Abuse | |
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Many congrats from the Exiles, too - and good luck in Elite!
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| Quote Reply Edit | |
| posted: 2026-02-19 13:25:58 (ID: 100197436) Edits found: 1 Report Abuse | |
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I asked an AI to compare our successes in this season with our ELO and this is the result:
Method: League Success (75%) * Win percentage * Playoff progress bonus Wildcard win = +0.03 Divisional win = +0.05 Conference win = +0.08 Bowl appearance = +0.10 Bowl win = +0.15 Cup Success (25%) * Group win % * Playoff progress Quarterfinal = +0.05 Semifinal = +0.08 Final = +0.10 Cup win = +0.15 Success Score = 0.75 × League Score + 0.25 × Cup Score Overperformance = Success Score − Expected Score from ELO Expected Score = ELO / 1400 (So 1000 ELO ≈ 0.71 expectation) Higher number = more success than ELO predicts. - - - SUCCESS VS ELO RANKING 1. Konjarnik HighTowers ELO: 889 Expected: 0.64 League: 1.00 + Bowl Final bonus Cup: 0.00 Success Score: 0.83 Overperformance: +0.19 2. Devon Warriors ELO: 932 Expected: 0.67 League: 0.75 + Wildcard win Cup: 0.00 Success Score: 0.62 Overperformance: -0.05 3. Michipicoten Corsairs ELO: 928 Expected: 0.66 League: 0.75 + Playoffs Cup: 0.67 Success Score: 0.69 Overperformance: +0.03 4. Kraków Conquerors ELO: 850 Expected: 0.61 League: 0.69 + Playoffs Cup: 0.75 Success Score: 0.67 Overperformance: +0.06 5. St Pauli Packers ELO: 897 Expected: 0.64 League: 0.81 + Playoffs Cup: 0.33 Success Score: 0.69 Overperformance: +0.05 6. Wrexham Exiles ELO: 987 Expected: 0.71 League: 0.75 + Wildcard win Cup: 0.00 Success Score: 0.61 Overperformance: -0.10 7. Social Distance Runners ELO: 1191 Expected: 0.85 League: 0.88 + Bowl Final Cup: Final Success Score: 0.92 Overperformance: +0.07 8. Glasgow Tigers ELO: 1154 Expected: 0.82 League: 0.94 + Conference Final Cup: 0.00 Success Score: 0.81 Overperformance: -0.01 9. Hamburg Sea Lions ELO: 1059 Expected: 0.76 League: 0.88 + Conference Final Cup: 0.00 Success Score: 0.78 Overperformance: +0.02 10. Manta Rays ELO: 928 Expected: 0.66 League: 0.81 + Playoffs Cup: 0.67 Success Score: 0.74 Overperformance: +0.08 - - - MID TABLE 11. Yorkshire Sea-Owls ELO: 900 Expected: 0.64 Success: 0.55 Diff: -0.09 12. Northern Storm ELO: 747 Expected: 0.53 Success: 0.56 Diff: +0.03 13. Gaylord Zaleaping ELO: 681 Expected: 0.49 Success: 0.55 Diff: +0.06 - - - UNDERPERFORMERS 14. London Silverbacks ELO: 866 Expected: 0.62 Success: 0.52 Diff: -0.10 15. Seattle Sea-Reapers ELO: 859 Expected: 0.61 Success: 0.57 Diff: -0.04 16. Baltimore Blue Crabs ELO: 572 Expected: 0.41 Success: 0.46 Diff: +0.05 - - - BIGGEST OVERACHIEVERS 1. Konjarnik HighTowers +0.19 2. Manta Rays +0.08 3. Social Distance Runners +0.07 4. Kraków Conquerors +0.06 5. Gaylord Zaleaping +0.06 - - - BIGGEST UNDERACHIEVERS 1. Wrexham Exiles -0.10 2. London Silverbacks -0.10 3. Yorkshire Sea-Owls -0.09 - - - KEY INSIGHT Best team by results: Social Distance Runners Most efficient vs ELO: Konjarnik HighTowers Most "wasted" ELO: Wrexham Exiles Last edited on 2026-02-19 13:27:55 by hmpf22 |
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| Quote Reply Edit | |
| posted: 2026-02-19 13:44:28 (ID: 100197437) Report Abuse | |
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1. Konjarnik HighTowers — +0.19
2. Manta Rays — +0.08 3. Social Distance Runners — +0.07 4. Kraków Conquerors — +0.06 5. Gaylord Zaleaping — +0.06 6. St Pauli Packers — +0.05 7. Baltimore Blue Crabs — +0.05 8. Michipicoten Corsairs — +0.03 9. Northern Storm — +0.03 10. Hamburg Sea Lions — +0.02 11. Black Knights — 0.00 12. Glasgow Tigers — -0.01 13. Rome Torresina — -0.02 14. Seattle Sea-Reapers — -0.04 15. Terrifying Hamsters — -0.04 16. Devon Warriors — -0.05 17. Minnesota Minotaurs — -0.05 18. Rome Centvrions — -0.08 19. Yorkshire Sea-Owls — -0.09 20. London Silverbacks — -0.10 21. Wrexham Exiles — -0.10 22. dERBENT CONVICTS — -0.11 23. Minnesota Silver Foxes — -0.13 24. PATAGONIA RAPTORS — -0.13 25. Cincinnati Bungals — -0.24 26. Downriver Seals — -0.25 27. Fuenlabrada Falcons — -0.30 28. Badalona Cheetahs — -0.34 29. Copenhagen Chargers — -0.35 |
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| posted: 2026-02-19 17:57:45 (ID: 100197441) Report Abuse | |
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Fascinating ! How will these results differ if the High Towers win the Bowl on Tuesday and how if my team for once takes the Bowl win ?
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| posted: 2026-02-19 19:27:36 (ID: 100197450) Edits found: 1 Report Abuse | |
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In the comparison of elo to season performance, which cup games are Included?
Last edited on 2026-02-19 19:27:55 by StuartW |
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| Quote Reply Edit | |
| posted: 2026-02-19 19:35:28 (ID: 100197451) Report Abuse | |
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StuartW wrote:
In the comparison of elo to season performance, which cup games are Included? Sea Devils Friendly Cup Please don't ask why you wasted most ELO. The AI couldn't tell me why. 😂 |
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| posted: 2026-02-19 19:41:15 (ID: 100197453) Report Abuse | |
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hmpf22 wrote:
StuartW wrote:
In the comparison of elo to season performance, which cup games are Included? Sea Devils Friendly Cup Please don't ask why you wasted most ELO. The AI couldn't tell me why. 😂 I think my cup performance is the only thing that got me a decent score here. |
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| posted: 2026-02-22 00:22:49 (ID: 100197509) Report Abuse | |
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Being the #4 performer is a big shocker!
Looking forward to keeping the division next season with Butch saying he's reworking his squad. Not looking forward to finding out how many retirees I'll have next season... but they have to retie at some point! Best of luck to everyone and good finances. Grandpa Rurik |
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| posted: 2026-02-22 20:52:16 (ID: 100197514) Report Abuse | |
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gp-Rurik wrote:
Being the #4 performer is a big shocker! Looking forward to keeping the division next season with Butch saying he's reworking his squad. Not looking forward to finding out how many retirees I'll have next season... but they have to retie at some point! Best of luck to everyone and good finances. Grandpa Rurik We massively under performed during the season but then over achieved in the Super Cup playoffs. I have quite a few playbooks now to keep the scouters guessing and im hoping for a easier schedule. Not that they exist in Sea Devil I was gonna entirely rework the roster and i have let some high earning underperformers go. I may sell some higher earners depending how the transfer market and draft goes. |
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| Quote Reply Edit | |
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