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Main / Monarchs / Jacks Ranking of the Monarchs League Search Forum | |
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posted: 2014-06-02 11:26:32 (ID: 100034236) Report Abuse | |
OK, I did promise a different approach regarding rankings and I did some research on the net regarding this.
In the global forum are some discussions running regarding a new ranking system (they suggested to use some elo system or some other systems similar to elo used for ranking big amounts of team/players). I found some college football ranking systems explanations and tried to use some easy ones to get an easy method and an understandable one, too. At the end I was not sure which to use so I fused some ideas I found in one system. A very robust and easy method was found in the Colley-Matrix-Method. It uses a quite elegant method to form a linear equation based on wins and losses and the team’s ratings and by solving that equation you get some nice result. Unfortunately the method is copyright protected and I did find the simple dependency on wins and losses a bit one dimensional. What I did like was the generation of the matrix so I decided to a l t e r the method by some other factors and give it a try. Here is the base idea: Colley did use a simple rating formula he did attribute to the mathematician Laplace. So nothing new here. The formula says that for each team the rating is calculated with R = (1 + #win)/(2+#games). So for each team i R(i) = ( 1 + #win(i) ) / ( 2 + #games (i) ) It looks a bit odd for the beginning, but the main reason to ranks them that way is to avoid hard values as 1 and 0 can be. For example, with that rating-formula a 1-win team has a rating of 2/3 and a 1-loss team has 1/3, instead of the common approach of having #win/#games where that such teams would have a rating of 1 or 0. And a team with no games at all would be undefined in such ranking system, while in Laplace formula it has the value 1/2. The next thing Colley did was to define a new value for the #win. Instead of using #wins as you would use it, he decided to define it as #wins(i) = (#won games - #lost games)/2 + sum of all ratings of played opponents. Looks odd, but it puts the strength of schedule into the #wins(i) part. If you play only cupcake games you might win all games but will also add only a few points from the ratings. If you play tough opponents and lose, you might end up with a few negative points but will add also a lot of points thanks to the strength of the schedule. if you but both formulas together you get the colley matrix which basically says: For each team i (2+#games) * R(i) - (sum of all ratings of opponents R(ij) ) = 1 + (#won games (i) - # lost games (i) ) / 2 with j = 1 to # games (i) What I didn't like was the (#won games - #lost games)/2 term. I does not reflect HOW games where won. That's not Colley's error; his intention was to keep it THAT simple. So I decided to a l t e r the formula. Instead of having (#win games - #lost games) which could be written as a sum of game values (GV) with GV = 1 if won, -1 if lost I decided to recalculate GV to a different formula which has 4 parts. 1. Part: Win Bonus (WB) A team which wins get X points, a team that loses gets -X points Why that? Well, winning should still be awarded, right? But not ONLY winning. So WB = X for the winner and WB = -X for the loser. The value X will be explained a bit later. 2. Part: score difference (SD) Base idea would be just to take score winner - score loser and that's that. But there should be a blowout cap, no need to award big points for driving up the score board, or to beat BOTs big time. To keep that in one formula I decided to use the tangens hyperbolicus, which gets results between -1 and 1. By multiplying the result by Y we get a value the size we need it for the final formula of GV SD = Y * tangh(score difference/blowout barrier) with the score difference for each team always calculated as score team - score opponent 3. Part: score ratio (SR) The score ratio is a bit different to the score difference. By dividing the score difference through the score of the winner you get a nice indicator how well the defence and offense did play. If the losing team did not score the winner gets here a perfect 1, of the winner did win high, but the loser did also score points, the ratio drops below 1. A close game will basically add almost nothing as a result, if many points were scored on both sides or a lot if not many points where scored, but one team did not score anything. By multiplying with Z we get a value the size we need it for the final formula of GV SR = Z * score difference/score winner with the score difference for each team always calculated as score team - score opponent 4. Part: adjusting X Y and Z I started with the following base assumptions. 50% of the GV should by from WB, 25% from SD and 25% of SR. -> X = 50, Y = 25 and Z = 25. Now let’s put it all together. Since I want each GV result between 1 and -1 I define GV = (WB + SR + SD)/(X+Y+Z) Now let's look at my adjustment of the colley matix again: For each team i (2+#games) * R(i) - (sum of all ratings of opponents R(ij) ) = 1 + (sum of GV(ij)) / 2 with j = 1 to # games (i) This results (as also the original colley method) into a linear equation system Ar=b with a build Matrix A from a(kl) = 2 + #games (k) for k=l, a(kl) = a (lk) = -#games k played against l and the vector b build with b(k) = 1 + (sum of GV(kj)) / 2 (with j = 1 to # games (i)) and k = 1 to #teams vector r is the rating vector which can be calculated by r = A^-1b To have a complete rating of all teams in RZA we would have to add the supercup games, all playoff games and the CoC games. Tough work, if the schedule is not available in some kind of download format. I did a calculation for the Monarchs 1.1. which will be final after the Bowl. Any comments are welcome. |
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posted: 2014-06-02 19:28:56 (ID: 100034271) Report Abuse | |
Please ignore my crash-and-burn at the end of the season.
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kyle-rowdy-busch
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posted: 2014-06-02 21:04:54 (ID: 100034286) Report Abuse |
yeah, i been reading up on the main thread about all the different equations or formulas...Look at where my GN and Dragons and Shenko are..they are close within, but somehow Nogard is jumped way ahead...i must of misread if it figured SC or CoC....have to re-read, sounds complicating.
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ausonny
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posted: 2014-06-02 21:53:42 (ID: 100034293) Report Abuse |
kyle-rowdy-busch wrote:
yeah, i been reading up on the main thread about all the different equations or formulas...Look at where my GN and Dragons and Shenko are..they are close within, but somehow Nogard is jumped way ahead...i must of misread if it figured SC or CoC....have to re-read, sounds complicating. To answer this question, my ratings include all league, supercup and champ of champs going back to season 7, which explains why Nogard is rated higher. One thing I will be interested to see in my own ratings is how much any one season changes the ratings. Looking at this it seems interesting to me. We have to address the same issues and I'm curious how some of the things you are doing will play out. There are a lot of things to like about your approach. I'm looking forward to seeing the results. Good luck, I've had a lot of fun doing this, and I'm sure you are as well. |
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posted: 2014-06-03 05:16:26 (ID: 100034311) Report Abuse | |
Of cause the ranking could span over several seasons, but that was not the main intention.
I think if I would rank the teams over several season, the results would get odd, since teams do rise and fall, fall bot and might even get reactivated. To adjust to that the ranking has to get much more complicated. I still have problems with even ranking level 1 and level 2 since the only connection would be the relegation games. To have a better ranking I would need the would schedule. |
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posted: 2014-06-04 05:35:32 (ID: 100034408) Report Abuse | |
OK; here comes the Final Rating of 1.1 for Season 12, based only on the Monarchs schedule.
Ranking Team Rating Value 1 St. George's Dynamo Patriots 0,669 2 Black Dragons 0,6 3 Skyzo Shenkos 0,564 4 GatorNation 0,524 5 Down Under Devils 0,48 6 Gliwice Lions 0,349 7 Paxtang Black Panthers 0,325 8 Leverkusen Leopards 0,313 9 Strike Team 0,284 10 Berinsfield Hornets 0,253 11 Secret Air Service 0,227 12 Manchester Machine 0,154 13 Panteras Assassinas 0,148 14 Vilbler Wasserbube 0,082 15 Hot Pigs 0,049 16 Wakeville Warriors -0,065 17 Porto Slackers -0,069 18 Winds of Erytheia -0,077 19 Blood Kings -0,092 20 Dijon Cerberus -0,131 21 Benik Cowboys -0,164 22 Adelaide Crows -0,186 23 Spawn City Killers -0,205 24 Dolni Chabry Patriots -0,276 25 Drunken Sailors Borshow -0,288 26 Sedalia Slugs -0,365 27 California Thunder -0,378 28 KickAss -0,392 29 Adendorf Cowboyz -0,435 30 Berlin Bears -0,444 31 New York Impact -0,641 32 Manchester Spartans -0,812 Last edited on 2014-06-04 05:43:35 by jack6 |
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posted: 2014-06-18 06:20:02 (ID: 100036353) Report Abuse | |
I did a calculation which included ALL games of RZA (league, supercup and CoC) and this is the ranking for the monachs region of season 12.
Rank Value League Name TeamName 1 1,032 Monarchs 1.1 St. George's Dynamo Patriots 2 1,018 Monarchs 1.1 Black Dragons 3 0,967 Monarchs 1.1 Skyzo Shenkos 4 0,914 Monarchs 1.1 GatorNation 5 0,881 Monarchs 1.1 Down Under Devils 6 0,843 Monarchs 1.1 Paxtang Black Panthers 7 0,840 Monarchs 1.1 Leverkusen Leopards 8 0,833 Monarchs 2.1 Muppet Liberation Army 9 0,791 Monarchs 1.1 Gliwice Lions 10 0,784 Monarchs 1.1 Strike Team 11 0,780 Monarchs 1.1 Panteras Assassinas 12 0,734 Monarchs 1.1 Secret Air Service 13 0,726 Monarchs 2.1 Rixdorf Reapers 14 0,708 Monarchs 1.1 Berinsfield Hornets 15 0,692 Monarchs 1.1 Manchester Machine 16 0,671 Monarchs 2.2 Kingston Als 17 0,639 Monarchs 1.1 Vilbler Wasserbube 18 0,635 Monarchs 2.1 Neptunes Bologna 19 0,635 Monarchs 2.1 SG Speed Merchants 20 0,621 Monarchs 2.1 srib|bdx 21 0,618 Monarchs 2.2 Ronneburg Knights 22 0,618 Monarchs 2.1 League of Shadows 23 0,615 Monarchs 2.1 P-Town Red Raiders 24 0,600 Monarchs 2.1 Burnaby Bruisers 25 0,592 Monarchs 2.2 Silesian Steelers 26 0,579 Monarchs 1.1 Porto Slackers 27 0,572 Monarchs 1.1 Winds of Erytheia 28 0,568 Monarchs 1.1 Hot Pigs 29 0,559 Monarchs 1.1 Wakeville Warriors 30 0,554 Monarchs 2.1 Glenwood Cougars 31 0,554 Monarchs 1.1 Dijon Cerberus 32 0,552 Monarchs 2.1 River City Ice 33 0,524 Monarchs 1.1 Blood Kings 34 0,516 Monarchs 2.1 Florida Gators 35 0,499 Monarchs 1.1 Adelaide Crows 36 0,485 Monarchs 2.1 Harrisburg Fire 37 0,480 Monarchs 2.1 Marines 38 0,462 Monarchs 2.2 Newhouse Eagles 39 0,432 Monarchs 1.1 Drunken Sailors Borshow 40 0,422 Monarchs 1.1 Spawn City Killers 41 0,412 Monarchs 1.1 Benik Cowboys 42 0,396 Monarchs 2.2 Angelland Cardinals 43 0,367 Monarchs 3.4 BOIU 44 0,366 Monarchs 1.1 KickAss 45 0,365 Monarchs 2.2 Moscow Broncos 46 0,365 Monarchs 1.1 Sedalia Slugs 47 0,349 Monarchs 1.1 California Thunder 48 0,346 Monarchs 2.1 Cincinnati FlightHawks 49 0,342 Monarchs 2.1 Berlin White Knights 50 0,291 Monarchs 2.2 Tampa Bay 51 0,276 Monarchs 2.1 Black Sails 52 0,264 Monarchs 1.1 Adendorf Cowboyz 53 0,263 Monarchs 1.1 Dolni Chabry Patriots 54 0,258 Monarchs 1.1 Berlin Bears 55 0,226 Monarchs 2.1 Torchwood Aliens 56 0,186 Monarchs 3.4 Marysville 57 0,122 Monarchs 2.1 White Reapers 58 0,114 Monarchs 3.1 Helmstedt Sharks 59 0,101 Monarchs 3.4 Dirty Hallions 60 0,089 Monarchs 3.3 Fenrirs Welpes 61 0,077 Monarchs 3.4 Versailles Knights 62 0,068 Monarchs 3.4 Berlin Black Panthers 63 0,021 Monarchs 3.4 Nordjylland Yellowtigers 64 0,015 Monarchs 3.4 Puerto Rico Pistols 65 0,005 Monarchs 2.1 Arctic Chill 66 -0,040 Monarchs 3.1 Ely Packers 67 -0,051 Monarchs 3.4 Rome Gladiators 68 -0,085 Monarchs 2.1 Gremlin 69 -0,109 Monarchs 3.4 Horns1 70 -0,117 Monarchs 3.4 Lucky Vikings 71 -0,126 Monarchs 3.1 Mingo Miners 72 -0,132 Monarchs 3.2 Gingoog Hunters 73 -0,165 Monarchs 3.1 farroupilha fodas 74 -0,168 Monarchs 2.2 Bridgeston Bastards 75 -0,170 Monarchs 3.1 Columbia Plateau Flood Basalts 76 -0,179 Monarchs 3.4 San Juan Coquí 77 -0,186 Monarchs 2.1 Bois de Boulogne 78 -0,188 Monarchs 3.3 Denver Evolutions 79 -0,191 Monarchs 3.1 footballr.at Stallions 80 -0,200 Monarchs 3.1 SEC Elite 81 -0,201 Monarchs 3.2 Loopbackers 82 -0,220 Monarchs 2.2 Dreigiau Cymreig 83 -0,222 Monarchs 2.1 Green Monkey's 84 -0,222 Monarchs 3.4 Royals 85 -0,223 Monarchs 2.2 New England Dream 86 -0,223 Monarchs 3.2 Hard Line 87 -0,224 Monarchs 3.1 Portsmouth Spartans 88 -0,229 Monarchs 1.1 Manchester Spartans 89 -0,230 Monarchs 3.3 Biesenthal Titans 90 -0,230 Monarchs 3.1 dark leyends 91 -0,230 Monarchs 3.2 Port Credit Wildcats 92 -0,235 Monarchs 3.4 New York Giants 93 -0,237 Monarchs 2.2 The Reds 94 -0,238 Monarchs 3.4 Olimpic Gozzano 95 -0,240 Monarchs 3.3 La Croix Eagles 96 -0,244 Monarchs 3.1 Nenima Hunters 97 -0,247 Monarchs 1.1 New York Impact 98 -0,248 Monarchs 2.2 redbulls 99 -0,249 Monarchs 3.3 Baltimore Knights 100 -0,251 Monarchs 3.1 BRONX BALLHOG 101 -0,251 Monarchs 3.2 59ers 102 -0,253 Monarchs 3.1 Toretto's 103 -0,259 Monarchs 3.2 Harrington Whitetails 104 -0,267 Monarchs 3.2 Walney Terriers 105 -0,269 Monarchs 3.2 AFC Schwaben 106 -0,269 Monarchs 3.2 Worcester StreetCleaners 107 -0,273 Monarchs 3.2 Kelenna Obi Sharks 108 -0,273 Monarchs 3.3 Pwnage 109 -0,277 Monarchs 3.4 Hamburg Huskies 110 -0,277 Monarchs 3.3 Dragon Knights 111 -0,281 Monarchs 3.3 IndonesiaWarior 112 -0,284 Monarchs 2.1 Gorillas 113 -0,286 Monarchs 3.3 Chicago Dream Team 114 -0,289 Monarchs 3.1 Dragoes 115 -0,289 Monarchs 3.2 Auckland Titans 116 -0,292 Monarchs 3.2 Vaticans 117 -0,294 Monarchs 3.1 Seattle Seahawks 118 -0,296 Monarchs 3.2 New England Patriots 119 -0,297 Monarchs 3.2 Team 3.2.32 120 -0,303 Monarchs 3.1 Knob Noster Apaches 121 -0,308 Monarchs 3.2 Team 3.2.15 122 -0,313 Monarchs 3.3 stars 123 -0,315 Monarchs 3.1 Euro Boyz 124 -0,315 Monarchs 3.2 Heraclea Hades 125 -0,316 Monarchs 3.4 Prospect Knights 126 -0,316 Monarchs 3.3 Terenure Ravens 127 -0,322 Monarchs 3.2 mighty mol fc 128 -0,324 Monarchs 3.1 Cleveland Browns 129 -0,324 Monarchs 2.2 Sydney Flames 130 -0,325 Monarchs 3.4 R.C. Corona Brasov 131 -0,325 Monarchs 3.1 Extremeteam 132 -0,326 Monarchs 3.4 Redhawks 133 -0,326 Monarchs 2.1 BLUE DILIS 134 -0,329 Monarchs 2.2 Cornish Sharks 135 -0,330 Monarchs 3.4 NY Templars 136 -0,330 Monarchs 3.3 Team 3.3.25 137 -0,332 Monarchs 3.3 Los Latinkings 138 -0,333 Monarchs 3.3 Cox Mill Chargers 139 -0,334 Monarchs 3.3 Team 3.3.9 140 -0,336 Monarchs 3.3 Kolbasz 141 -0,337 Monarchs 3.4 Linden Skyhawks 142 -0,337 Monarchs 2.2 The Amphetamines 143 -0,339 Monarchs 3.2 Team 3.2.11 144 -0,340 Monarchs 3.3 Team 3.3.21 145 -0,341 Monarchs 2.1 Northwest Space Pioneers 146 -0,343 Monarchs 3.3 Nuclears 147 -0,345 Monarchs 3.2 Los Bimbos 148 -0,348 Monarchs 3.2 Freiburg Dragons 149 -0,351 Monarchs 3.4 St. Pauli Buccaneers 150 -0,351 Monarchs 3.3 Montan team 151 -0,352 Monarchs 3.3 Team 3.3.18 152 -0,353 Monarchs 3.1 Snapping Turtles 153 -0,354 Monarchs 2.2 Blue Devils 154 -0,359 Monarchs 2.2 Rivne Monarchs 155 -0,360 Monarchs 2.2 Kofa Kings 156 -0,361 Monarchs 3.2 B33R 157 -0,362 Monarchs 2.2 KC Bears 158 -0,363 Monarchs 2.2 Who let the dogs out 159 -0,364 Monarchs 3.1 Los Angeles Gauchos 160 -0,365 Monarchs 3.3 Alcala 161 -0,369 Monarchs 3.3 Soma team 162 -0,371 Monarchs 3.1 Da Bears 163 -0,373 Monarchs 2.2 NJ Dingos 164 -0,379 Monarchs 3.4 Scrappers 165 -0,379 Monarchs 2.2 Style Points 166 -0,382 Monarchs 3.4 GreenBacks 167 -0,383 Monarchs 2.1 Beasts 168 -0,384 Monarchs 3.2 Seahawks 169 -0,388 Monarchs 3.4 djusj 170 -0,388 Monarchs 3.1 Bombers 171 -0,388 Monarchs 3.2 Cai Games Athletics 172 -0,392 Monarchs 3.2 The Quake 173 -0,393 Monarchs 3.1 The Spectres 174 -0,393 Monarchs 3.4 Fen Tigers 175 -0,394 Monarchs 2.2 NOtown RoLLaZ 176 -0,395 Monarchs 3.1 Plymouth Pats 177 -0,395 Monarchs 3.1 Team 3.2.24 178 -0,395 Monarchs 2.1 Buffalo Bandits 179 -0,399 Monarchs 3.4 Gli Sgabali 180 -0,405 Monarchs 3.4 Himmelsburg Devils 181 -0,408 Monarchs 3.4 Atticall All-Stars 182 -0,411 Monarchs 3.3 RJ 183 -0,416 Monarchs 2.1 Hamburg Lost Boys 184 -0,418 Monarchs 3.2 M-P Tomahawks 185 -0,421 Monarchs 3.4 sharks the aaswome 186 -0,423 Monarchs 2.2 Dc United 187 -0,423 Monarchs 3.3 Blackhawks 188 -0,428 Monarchs 3.2 Hampton Crabbers 189 -0,429 Monarchs 3.3 Dresden Braves 190 -0,430 Monarchs 2.2 Monterey Mavericks 191 -0,432 Monarchs 2.2 CNY Bears 192 -0,433 Monarchs 3.2 pirates 193 -0,434 Monarchs 3.3 London Philosophers 194 -0,440 Monarchs 2.1 Paris Blitzers 195 -0,442 Monarchs 2.2 Gladiators 196 -0,443 Monarchs 3.1 Boston Patriots 197 -0,446 Monarchs 3.4 Reading Cowboys 198 -0,448 Monarchs 3.1 Chanacki 199 -0,455 Monarchs 3.2 Redskins 200 -0,462 Monarchs 2.2 Virginia Vipers 201 -0,463 Monarchs 3.1 packers 202 -0,466 Monarchs 3.2 Parker Lumberjacks 203 -0,471 Monarchs 2.2 The Praha Warriors 204 -0,474 Monarchs 3.3 Team 3.3.13 205 -0,476 Monarchs 3.3 The Belgae Titans 206 -0,480 Monarchs 2.1 Grazzano Cowboys 207 -0,480 Monarchs 3.1 Patriots 208 -0,481 Monarchs 3.2 Ravens Poznań 209 -0,482 Monarchs 2.2 Gahanna Golden Lions 210 -0,483 Monarchs 3.2 Team 3.2.21 211 -0,489 Monarchs 3.3 Houston Oilers 212 -0,492 Monarchs 2.1 Footballas United 213 -0,495 Monarchs 3.3 Salt Lake Storm 214 -0,495 Monarchs 3.3 Team 3.3.24 215 -0,496 Monarchs 3.4 Real Amazing 216 -0,498 Monarchs 2.1 Oregon Ducks 217 -0,498 Monarchs 2.2 St.Pete Crusaders 218 -0,510 Monarchs 3.4 Team 3.3.15 219 -0,516 Monarchs 3.1 Backyard Clowns 220 -0,524 Monarchs 3.1 mima 221 -0,539 Monarchs 3.3 Girls Club 222 -0,567 Monarchs 2.2 Pick 6 223 -0,586 Monarchs 3.1 Rochester Knights 224 -0,608 Monarchs 3.2 Saskatoon Storm |
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Stigma
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posted: 2014-06-20 12:03:28 (ID: 100036629) Report Abuse |
Congratulation for the enormous work you did!!
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