Hello all. I'm going to post a preseason division favorite and overall league grouping (champion, contending for playoff, building for future, avoiding relegation). I'll u p d a t e at the quarter, half, and three quarter marks of the season. In between those I'll also post previews to games of interest and review games of interest.

Division Previews

AC East

LA Chargers

The Chargers came from D1 via Relegation. They did struggle in D1 finishing in the bottom 10 of most stats. They do have a significant rating advantage over their divisional foes. I'm not sure their style or playbook tendencies but they are strong enough to compete for the division title.

Minglewood

The number one passing team team in the league last year and also was top 6 vs run and pass on defense. Most of the season was a one play playbook that started them off 6-2. Then after back to back losses to SF and Turigtians (both becoming conference championship game participants) Minglewood dropped to 6-4. At that point Minglewood began experimenting with their playbook each game on the way to losing 5 of the last 6 games to finish 7-9. This will be a good test to see if they found success with the experimenting and apply it to this season.

I am more interested in how they seem to perform so well with the player and team ratings they have. They will most likely push Chargers some in the division.

Ankh

Patricus took over this team after 4 games had passed last season. They had some bright spots in the middle of the season vs playoff bound teams. They have a decent defense that looked better until they had a 3 game stretch vs Vikings, Turigtians, and St. Pauli. Two of those teams played in the championship game. It will be interesting to see what changes they make how fast they improve. Feel they will finish 3rd in the division.

The 4th team is a bot.

AC North

Badalona Cheetahs

They have arrived via relegation from D1. They seem to be in a bit of the same situation as The Chargers but paying more for it. Both of these former D1 teams have similar player ratings in the low 70's (which makes them competitive here in D2), similar ages, similar struggles in D1, but Badalona has an 8 million dollar player payroll vs Chargers at over 3 million. The positive for Badalona is that the division they landed in has only one other human controlled team. I caution that this other human team has a crafty manager.....

Convicts

This team was taken over after 3 games passed in the regular season and a 0-3 start. Derbent then went 9-4 the rest of the way to get into the playoffs. This manager knows how to gameplan and creates good defenses on a game by game basis. The Derbent Convicts are not going to just roll over and give it away to the Cheetahs. I expect them to put up a good fight up to the end.

Other 2 teams are bots.

AC South

Pizti Beltzak

Arrived via relegation from D1. Like the other relegation teams Pizti will be compete for a top spot. Also like the other teams Pitzi has similar player and team ratings, but unlike the other 2 relegation teams has a younger squad. Pitzi has an average age of 22 while Cheetahs and Chargers are 25ish range. Kind of feel Pizti is built for a long run than the other 2. Which also leads me to believe a bounce back with improved player growth may propel them back to D1 next season.

France 2018

France is the team that came by relegation the year prior. The team has seen the highs and lows and is currently building back to move on higher. France had the number 3 passing offense and finished 8-8 last season. I look to them to compete for the playoffs this season.

Other 2 teams are currently bots.

AC West

There is one clear stronger division in the AC conference and this is it. It has 2 teams returning that made the playoffs and one team that missed it by such a small margin.

Vikings

They finished 14-2 last season and had the #1 rush game and #1 rush defense. If they shore up the pass defense then they are contending to move up to D1 next season for sure. One of the 2 losses last season was to the eventual league champ runner up by 6 points.

Godesberg

At 4-6 last season it looked a little bleak for them to get to the playoffs. Godesberg then rolled off 6 straight wins to make into the playoffs on the final week. The even had a win vs Vikings. With a decent run game and decent defense this team hangs around. The #25 passing game last season is something to improve on for if they fall behind. Looking to the playoffs again this season.

Bath Bucks

The Bucks aren't bad at any one thing but they are also not super great at any one thing either. Last season was a little bit of a roller coaster as they won the first 2 dropped the next 5 games and then won the next 6. A loss to Godesberg on the final game kept them out of the playoffs. It is possible 3 teams from one division could go to the playoffs.

Balaton

The team that was rarely blown out but also never quite distinguished themselves yet. Perhaps my view is skewed since I had higher expectations before the season started compared to how their season played out. They were 6-4 but then lost the last 6 games to finish 6-10. They can run the ball and have a pretty decent defense but the passing game was not enough to get them over. If they figure that out then they have a chance.

NC East

Eagles

This is an automatic division crown for them with 2 teams bot and the other will be. Even if a team does show up it won't be able to make up the ground in time.

NC North

This may be the only other division that can rival the AC West in top to bottom strength. It has a returning playoff team and 2 teams that nearly made the playoffs.

Red Bull

This is a team that I picked to maybe win it all last season. They finished 14-2 and top 6 in all rankings. They are a complete and balanced team. They lost 3 games total. One was to Sakeo who is in their division. The other 2 losses were to St. Pauli who eventually won the championship. With St. Pauli gone they may have jumped into the favorite seat. I'd bet a large sum on them winning the division.

Owls

I kind of feel they had a tough schedule relative to their strength. They had only 5 games vs losing teams. They finishe 9-7 and just outside the playoffs. They had decent offense and a good run defense. If they fix up the pass defense they are solid. I feel they will make the playoffs.

Sakeo

This manager is really good at devising a defense against their opponent. They were ranked 2nd vs the pass and 14th vs the rush. On offense they were 13th in passing and 7th in rushing. They were competitive throughout with even a win vs Red Bull. Playoff bound probably but not quite to pushing far into the playoffs.

Outlaws

They are just a few weeks old but have been active building the roster. We will see how they do before making predictions.




NC South

This division is between the following 2 teams. Cheshire has gained the upper hand while New England remains in financial trouble for several weeks now. The other team just signed on and The Kings haven't messed with the roster much so I'm not sure if they are sticking around. Finally there is a bot in the division to finish it off.

It really is Cheshire's division to lose at this point.

Cheshire

New England


NC West

KC Chiefs

This team should win the division based off its current roster. It seems they are also in financial trouble with an average age of 26. I wouldn't be surprised to see them scale back an get the financials in line and rebuild the roster. If they go fire sale it will open the door for Brookfield.

Brookfield

This manager took over with 6 games left last season and yet was able to go 4-2 in those final games. In that last 6 game stretch they played against Blackmanes (lost to them by 3), lost to Turigtians 16-38 (keeping it that close vs the league champ runner up after just taking over is impressive), and beating Eventual champ St. Pauli 48-23. The win vs St. Pauli was with St. Pauli using relaxed mode. Even so it is impressive. I would not close the door on them making it to the playoffs or even winning the division.

Finished preview. Not going to preview this weeks games yet as I'm not sure how they all stack up yet.

Thanks for the analysis.

It's interesting to get another view of your own team and your rivals (especially if it leaves you in good place ).

Post Review Week 1

Before breaking a few games down (only a few because most were blowouts) here are some random thoughts on various games....

DAMN Pitzi! DAMN! You took NE down by 98 points. That is not a bot team. Obviously NE gutted some of its team to get out of financial trouble but 98 points?

Godesberg got trashed by France. Godesberg made the playoffs and France finished 8-8 last season. France took last year to rebuild and now the gloves are starting to come off!

I picked (in my mind) for Cheshire to win but I thought the defensive minded snakes would keep it closer. Cheshire finished strong last year and is carrying it into this season.

Owls squeaked by Flims old team. Flims must have a pretty good playbook. Also he sold off of pretty much anyone of note on his team. Hope it doesn't play too much a factor in teams playoff chances if they play this team before it goes bot. I wish there was a function that a manager could use that made the team be forced bot so it didn't impact a season if that manager knew they were leaving.

Badalona 30 Minglewood 21

Minglewood had a 21 to 16 lead going into the 4th quarter despite throwing 2 int's up to that point that resulted in Badalona scoring 10 points. In the 4th quarter Badalona scored 14 points and kept Minglewood scoreless. How did Minglewood statistically outperform the Cheetahs and still lose the game? In the 4th quarter Minglewood threw 2 more int's that Badalona turned into touchdowns. In fact Badalona scored 24 of its 30 points off of turnovers. In total Minglewood had 5 int's and a fumble and Badalona had a single fumble. That is crazy!

Balaton 19 Bucks 16 in overtime!

If you like field goals and defense then this is the game for you! Each team had a big play to get a touchdown (Balaton a 21 yard fumble return and Bucks 86 yard pass) and then kicked field goal after field goal.

The game started with Balaton scoring 3 straight field goals and getting that touchdown from the fumble return to take a 16 point lead. In that first quarter the Bucks threw 3 int's that directly lead to 13 of those 16 points. All three Ints were deep in the Bucks territory. Then for the next three quarters we got 16 combined punts from these teams! The Bucks got the long TD pass and then kicked 3 field goals, one of which was off a Balaton INT.

So 1 quarter it is 16-0 then 3 quarters later it is 16-16. Overtime! Bucks fumble on their 44 and Balaton takes it far enough to kick the game winning field goal.

I feel for the Bucks in this one. They had 363 yards and 20 first downs compared to Balaton having 177 total yards and 9 first downs. One int less and it is a different game.

Games of Interest Week 2

Battle of the Relegation Teams!

The last time the Chargers played the Cheetahs was Season 44 in D2. The Chargers finished that season 15-1 losing in the conf. champ game and the Cheetahs finished 11-5 and lost in the divisional round. The game they played the Chargers won 23-17. This game could go a ways to show who is ahead in making a return to D1.

Bucks @ Owls

Both of these teams finished last season 9-7 and just outside the playoffs so this season they are trying to push through. The Bucks are coming off that heartbreaker vs Balaton and the Owls off a narrow victory vs the rudderless team of Flims. A good early season test for these two similar teams. They both have decent offense and defense units. Neither has yet to show they are elite in one area. Now may be the time to try and separate themselves.

Actually, all the stars aligned for me.

My team got 5 passing TDs with over 50 yards after catch.

All 3 Coyotes turnovers (2 INTs and 1 fumble) were returned for TD.

Obviously, I expected the win. But neither the Coyotes are that bad nor my Pizti Beltzak that good. Both are sure to be confirmed in the coming games.

Uuhhhhhh....so if I take out all three returned td and the the 5 long bombs you still win 46-3. Lol

The number of bots is significantly higher than last season, as such the number of games to preview and analyze has been down. Last week was mostly blowouts. As for this week.....


Week 4 Preview

This week it is inter division games that are on the slate.

Vikings @ Bath Bucks

I have to figure out what "Bath Bucks" is as of yet lol.

Last season the Vikings swept the series 26-16 and 23-0. In fact, last season the Vikings were held to 26 or fewer points 8 times and of those 6 were against divisional opponents. This tells me the divisional games for the AC West are typically contested games.

So far the Vikings cruised past a bot, easily dispatched divisional foe Godesberg with relative ease and scored a td late in the fourth quarter to snatch the win away from another divisional foe the Seahawks. Up next is the Bucks. A win here will easily give the Vikings the leg up to take the division yet again. The Vikings have been and are a running team that plays good defense.

The Bucks are having a tough beginning to the season losing 2 close games and winning a close game. They lost to Godesberg and Seahawks by 3 each and beat Owls by 5. They are a pretty balanced team run/pass and play decent defense on both sides as well.

If Bucks don't figure out a way to slow the running game then it might be a long afternoon for them.

Godesberg @ Seahawks

Keeping this AC West.....

Seahawks have started off strong this season. Beating Bucks by a field goal, destroying Snakes and their tough d, and losing a close game to Vikings. They could just as well be 3-0, but 2-1 is a good start.

Godesberg has had a tough go so far at 1-2. They got torn up by France and Vikings then beat Bucks with a field goal.

This will be another close game between these two teams. The last three games have been 10-6 Godesberg, 22-16 Godeberg, 12-0 Seahawks. The first 2 games I listed were last season where Godesberg swept the Seahawks. They absolutley need to do this again next game or it will be that much tougher to climb back into it. Although Godesberg did rip off 6 wins in a row to close last season to get into the playoffs.

Derbent @ Cheetahs

Both teams are 2-1 and divisional foes and have not faced each other before.

Derbent beat two bots before playing Minglewood last game and got destroyed 16-56. The Cheetahs beat those aforementioned Minglewood team, Flims old team, and lost to fellow relegation team Chargers by 5 points.

Derbent did beat Minglewood last season 13-0 but I believe at that point in the season Minglewood was messing around with playbooks.

This is a game that will show Derbent where they are compared to the divisional favorite.

Week 4 Post

Cheetahs 29 Convicts 9

The Convicts are probably trying to figure out how they could lose a game they had double the yardage, a 2-1 advantage in TOP, and having 32 first downs compared to the opponents 9.

This seems to be the trend lately. I have seen (in the games I look at) several instances where statistically one team outperforms the other but the opponent has more big plays. It is the big play/get turnovers game plan vs the control game plan. I can only assume it is a game plan since it is repeated by teams. It seems the teams that are using the big play and getting turnovers off their opponents are coming out ahead more often than not.

What hurt convicts as well was going 2 of 12 on 3rd downs. Yes the Cheetahs also went 1 of 12 but they used big plays to score. To clarify by big play they had a punt return for a td, a 64 yard td pass and a 40 yard td pass. That represents 21 of the 29 points they scored. Despite losing the Convicts have shown growth and that they can compete with the Cheetahs so the division is still wide open.

Bath Bucks 24 Vikings 19

Man this division is tough top to bottom. With this win agains Vikings and Godesberg win over Seahawks everyone is within a game of the lead.

The Vikings had a 19-10 lead going into the 4th quarter. The Bath Bucks had 2 long drives of 11 plays 71 yards and 11 plays of 80 yards that both resulted in touchdowns and ate up about 9 minutes of clock.

Down 19-24 the Vikings got the ball back with with 4:41 left on their own 37 after the BB missed field goal. Vikings drove down to the BB 6 yard line and on the last play with 1 second left passed the ball......and was intercepted by BB! That is an on the edge of the seat of your game!

I am sorry for not posting more frequently.

Week 6 Review

All blowouts with one close game.

Vikings 24 Minglewood 21

I'll ask you to look at these stats and tell me who won, team A or team B

Team A

34 first downs, 574 total yards, 2.6 yards a carry, 66% completion 2 interceptions, 34 minutes of clock control.

Team B

10 first downs, 217 total yards, 2.1 yards a carry, 66% completion 1 interception, 26 minutes of clock control.

You would be correct, team B won the game....wait....what? Yes Team B aka Vikings won this game.

1st Minglewood drive an interception that puts the Vikings on the Minglewood 16 yard line and eventually a touchdown.

Minglewood next possession they drive for a long touchdown and on the kickoff Vikings return it 65 yards to set up a short drive that ends in a field goal.

Minglewood next possession a long drive for a td.

Vikings throw an interception to return the favor and give Minglewood a short field for a td.

Minglewood then has a big playbook error on next drive. On the Viking 28 yard line on 4th down they punt instead of kicking a field goal.

Vikings go for it on 4th and 1 on their own 29 yard line and fail to convert. Minglewood gets a short field and on 4th and 2 on the Vikings 3 yard line fail to convert and turn it over.

In the second half Minglewood is shut out with drives ending in failed 4th down attempt on opponent 34 which lead 41 yard Viking td pass, an interception return for 67 yards by Vikings for a td, a fumble, a punt on 4th down on the Vikings 9 yard line, failed 4th down conversion on Vikings 9 yard line.

Vikings are extremely fortunate to have won this game as they were outplayed most of this game. If Minglewood had field goal instead of punts when close to the goal line they win this no question.

Week 7 Previews

6-0 American Eagles @ 4-2 High Desert Outlaws

Eagles had some good games down the stretch last season and started this season with 4 straight bots to an easy 4-0 start. The last two games against Owls and Convicts aren't super surprising but the way they won is. Scoring 62 against Owls and 47 against Convicts! Owls first 5 games they allowed opponents to score in the 20s and that includes the potent Red Bull. Owls also had beaten Outlaws in a close game. 62? That is a lot against any human team. They followed that up with a thrashing of Convicts. Not only did the Eagles score at will they also only allowed 14 and 17 points to these teams.

Outlaws are a relatively newer team but a highly involved team if you have ever read through the forums. lol. Against the human controlled Ukies they pulled out a close win. I'm not counting out the Outlaws and their 2700 plays in a playbook but Eagles are on a roll. Will be a good test for these upstart managers!

5-1 Cheetahs @ 4-1 Ahnk

Ahnk started off the year with a thrashing from recently relegated Chargers. After that they won the next 4, mostly against bots. The human team they beat was the Convicts in a tight, low scoring game. They are now back to face another relegated team. This more a test for Ahnk to see if they are any better off than week 1.