Remaining SOS for Potential NC Playoff Teams

Only 4 teams are completely out of the running: Miami Dolphins, Nuthuggers, Girona Dragons, and the Blackmanes. Everyone else has a chance even if some are slim. I forgot to write it up in the AC section but there are only 4 teams that are completely out of it and that is Turigtians, 49er, Greyhounds, and Viper.

NC East

6-5 Outlaws
Vs. Wolves, Budapest Wolves X2, St. Pauli, Rio 22-33=40% opp. win percentage.

6-5 Torpedos
Vs Devils, St. Pauli X2, Steelers, Budapest Wolves 25-30=45% opp. win percentage.

4-7 Budapest Wolves
VS Turigtians, Outlaws X2, Torpedos, Moors 31-24=54% opp. win percentage.

3-8 St. Pauli
Vs. Rio, Torpedos X2, Outlaws, Nuthuggers 25-30=45% opp. win percentage.

It looks like Outlaws have the edge at a glance. Honestly it is a 2 team race between Torpedos and Outlaws. Torpedos have 2 potential playoff teams left on their schedule while Outlaws have just one in Rio.

Budapest is only 2 games out but their schedule is significantly harder with the Moors on their schedule. The only thing in the favor for Budapest and St. Pauli is that they control their path in that they both face Torpedos and Outlaws for three of their 5 games. St. Pauli needs a lot of help plus they can't lose a single game the rest of the way.


NC North

9-2 Gardians
Vs Divsion, Polar Bears, Steelers 31-24=56% opp. win percentage.

9-2 OTR
Vs Division, Lonestar, 49er 26-29=47% opp. win percentage.

6-5 Rio Atoms
Vs Division, St. Pauli, Outlaws 28-27=51% opp. win percentage

This division has the potential to send three teams to the playoffs. If the playoffs started today Gardians would win the division and OTR would be the first wildcard. When looking at the schedules for Gardians and OTR there is a definite advantage for OTR. The only two games not in common the rest of the way are Steelers/Bears with a 15-7 combined record while OTR faces 49er/Lonestar with a combined 9-13 record. Edge for the division win is on the side of OTR.

Rio has a manageable schedule and they are only 2 games and 14 pd points away from the final wild card spot. Rio needs to win out to safely be in the thick of it. It is conceivable a single loss won't destroy them, but 2 losses most certainly will as Werewolves won't lose 3 of their 5 games....at least I don't think they will. I don't think they are in the division race despite not being mathematically eliminated yet.

NC South

9-2 Pinellas Pikes
Vs Panthers, BPJ, Marines, Dolphins, Steelers 26-29=47% opp. win percentage

7-4 Mulheim Steelers
VS Dolphins, Torpedos, Girona, Gardians, Pikes 27-28= 49% opp. win percentage

The south is a 2 team race as the other teams are both 0-11. Steelers do need some help to overcome a 2 game deficit and a a pd deficit of over 100 compared to the Pikes. It seems very unlikely they overcome as the Pikes have to lose 2 of 5 while Steelers would have to go 5-0 or Pikes would have to lose 3 of the last 5 to give Steelers any margin or error.

It is more likely the Steelers are competing for a wild card spot as they competing with 8-3 Werewolves 131 pd, 7-4 BPJ 101 pd, Rio 6-5 117 pd, and Torpedos 6-5 with a 7 pd while the Steelers themselves have a 77 pd. This means with one more loss than Rio the rest of the way they drop below them as well.

NC West

9-2 Moraira Moors
Vs BPJ, Greyhounds, Blackmanes, Budapest Wolves, Werewolves 20-35= 36% opp. win percentage.

8-3 Werewolves
Vs Nuthuggers, Girona, Baltic, BPJ, Moors 28-27=51% opp. win percentage.

7-4 BPJ

Vs Moors, Pikes, SF, Werewolves, Girona 36-19=65% opp win percentage.

Technically this division has a tight race but I don't think it will be. The Moors ,who have a 1 game lead on Werewolves and 2 game lead on BPJ, have the easiest SOS of any playoff contending team in the league at a mere 36% win rate. The only 2 teams they play with a winning record are the divisional opponents Werewolves and BPJ.

In contrast both Werewolves and BPJ face only 2 teams with losing records. BPJ who has the hardest SOS left at 65% opp. win percentage.

BPJ can only really compete for a wild card spot.

Werewolves have to beat Moors the last game of the year and have the Moors lose one more game (BPJ is the only other likely team to beat Moors). Even though they are only 1 game back they are also over a hundred pd points behind Moors so they need to have a better record.

Playoff Predictions

This is just my list of who I think will win the divisions and be the wildcards. No analysis just lists. If you want to know my thinking it is in the SOS on the previous posts.

AC

Alert Polar Bears
Lonestar
Jackalopes
Devils
Baltic Stars
Mulheim Seahawks

NC

Outlaws
Gardians
OTR
Pikes
Moors
Werewolves

Agreed!

AC Playoff u p d a t e with 4 games to go


Lock or near lock Division Winners

10-2 Jackalopes (current #1 Seed)
8-4 Devils (Current #4 Seed)

Likely Division Winners

8-4 Seahawks (Current #3 Seed by 8 pd)
9-3 Lonestar (Current #2 Seed)

Wild Card contenders:

Big group here by the way!

Current Holders:
8-4 Alert Polar Bears
7-5 Baltic Stars pd=83

Current Outside Looking in:

7-5 Paladins pd=2
7-5 Quack Attack pd= -17
6-6 Westlake Marines pd= 102
6-6 Panthers pd=87
6-6 SF pd= -15

There are a lot of teams playing each other in the wild card group the last 4 games. So not over for any of them.

If I am the Panthers or Marines I would feel fine with my situation despite being a game out. They have the superior PD which could play a big role here. The Panthers control a lot of it on their own. They face Marines, Baltic, Jackalopes, and Quack attack. Win out and they are in really. Although that means they face one of the tougher schedules. Westlake has Panthers the last game of the season. One of those teams might end up canceling the other out on that last game of the season.

I feel Polar Bears are more or less safe as the first seed.

I also feel those divisional leaders will be the same after the last game of the regular season based on remaining schedules and current performances.

NC Playoff u p d a t e with 4 games to go

Lock or near lock Divisional Winners

11-1 Moors (Current #1 Seed)
10-2 Pikes (Current #2 Seed)

Outside of these 2 it is too close to call another divisional winner.

North= 10-2 Gardians or 9-3 OTR

In the north Gardians have a 1 game lead over OTR after beating them in a tight game last week. Despite that the Gardians have a more difficult schedule as they face 1 team that is likely playing a relegation game whereas the OTR have 2 games against teams likely playing a relegation game. Kind of feel like the Rio Atoms will decide this division as both teams play Rio down the stretch.

East= 7-5 Torpedos and 7-5 Outlaws

This division is a hot mess. lol. Even Budapest Wolves are technically in it. In fact they play the outlaws twice so a sweep of them and they are tied in record and that leaves two other games. I feel fairly confident saying that this division winner will most likely be the only playoff representative from this division. So it is win division or bust.

Wild Card contenders:

Current ones in:

9-3 Werewolves
9-3 OTR

Outside looking in:

8-4 Steelers
7-5 BPJ
7-5 Torpedos
6-6 Rio

Rio is hanging on by a thread as any one more win by Werewolves and OTR combined with a a Rio loss will eliminate them.

Torpedos BPJ are in a similar position but the number is a combination of 3 win/losses.

I kind of think the only one who has a shot to take out one of the current wildcards is the Steelers who don't have the easiest of remaining schedules.

This current teams that are listed as being in the playoffs are most likely who we will see but it is the seeding that has a ways to being decided.

Relegations

Currently the big R for direct relegation are:

0-12 Blackmanes
0-12 Dolphins
1-11 Greyhounds
1-11 49er

Current Little r for relegation game:

1-11 Nuthuggers
3-9 Turigtians
3-9 St. Pauli
3-9 Vipers

In danger of falling into the little r category:

4-8 Girona

The point differential between Nuthuggers and 49er is over a 100 so wins are the only thing that will make a movement....most likely.

Out of this list of teams there are 4 who have won over another team not in this list.

49er beat Paladins early in the season for their lone victory.

Viper beat Devils last week (congrats) but they did use MOTY so future wins will be hard to come by.

Turigtians beat Panthers.

Girona beat Seahawks.



That means 12 of the 16 combined wins by these 9 teams was vs each other.

That being said, which teams play each other on this list will play a part in determining relegation.

Number of times a team on this list faces another one on this list.

49er faces Nuthuggers

Nuthuggers face 49er and St. Pauli

Blackmanes and Dolphins play each other twice

Dolphins play Girona once

Viper and Turigitians play each other twice.

I think I will start watching the relegation battle. Seems pretty tough.

I still think you have a decent chance to make the playoffs. A tough loss last game. In the 4th quarter there was a 3 minute span where you both threw 2 interceptions. The last one hurt the most with you down 16-20 and on the opponent 25yard line. You were absolutely in that game! You get another crack at those Gardians.


You also will play a part in 2 other divisions determine their winners. You honestly have 3 out of 4 games that will play a part in the playoff picture.

Thanks for all trust in my team! Unfortunately I do not share this feeling with you

Games To Watch!

Not enough time to break down games but will point out important ones with implications for the playoffs.

Alert Polar Bears @ Lonestar

A win here by Lonestar gives them a 2 game lead with 3 games to go. Neither team has an easy final 3 but Bears have a slightly easier one. A win by Polar bears brings them to a tie and with the easier schedule can give them an edge. This game could be the determination of the division winner but there are still 3 more games left.

BPJ @ Pikes

While a loss by BPJ doesn't eliminate them officially it would certainly push them way out of the playoff picture.

Jackalopes @ Paladins

Jackalopes are in no danger of losing the division but are only one game ahead in the seeding. Paladins are the next in line for a shot at the wild card and with a loss here they fall that much further back.

Seahawks @ Devils and SF @ Baltic Stars

Devils are in no danger of losing the division but the three other teams in these 2 games are connected. Any combination of wins and losses here can result with Seahawks taking firm control of the division, to Baltic taking the division lead, to Seahawks clinging to a division lead and SF and Baltic one game back. A Seahawk and SF win would put Seahawks in firm control. Unlikely I win but hey...

Panthers @ Quack Attack

A Quack win and it all but seals the Panthers season but a Panther win and pulls the quack that much further back from the pack and the playoff picture.

Steelers @ Torpedos

Both teams are desperate for a win with the Torpdoes tied with Outlaws for the division and the Seahawks still one back of the final wild card spot.