2020-11-19 07:19

The 2nd wave of Covid-19 is hitting hard on the college football game schedule.
Right now I'm not sure whether we will see a regular season ending of this season with bowls and the CFP-Final played early next year.

In the last 2 weeks there were 25 games canceled/postponed, including several high profile games.
Sure in general it does not matter which game is not played, but the reality is, if a game like Alabama - LSU is not played the attention is much higher than UTSA - Rice.

On top we have the competition level variations based on single players not allowed to play, most prominent Clemsons star QB not playing against Notre Dame.
Of course it's speculation, but I think the result would have been different, of Lawrence would have been active.

And the numbers of cases are still going up, not down.

There will be hard decisions coming, I guess.

Week 10 recaps:
Central Michigan did win against Ohio 30-27 in the "Return of the MACition" highest profile game, from my point of view. CMU looks like THE favorite, but of course everything can change over time and within those days we have right now. Of course it can happen that CMU will lose their coach if he gets a better option during or after the season. Jim McElwain might not want to stick to the MAC forever, since he once was a SEC HC.
Utah State lost against Nevada 9-34, which gave them a 0-3 start and did lead to the firing of their HC Gary Andersen. It was his 2nd period with the team, his 1st went much better and landed him a Power 5 HC gig. Now he was fired by a MWC team. Next stop likely a coordinator job or even position coach.
BYU won against Boise State 51-17 and is now in top position to crash the playoff party, IF higher ranked teams do fall. I don't think BYU can climb higher on their own success.
Notre Dame ranked at #4 won in double OT against #1 Clemson 47-40. The Tigers were on the road without their starting QB. That's not an excuse, they had chances to win the game, so Notre Dame did play good enough to win here. But that's the change of competition I mentioned.
Florida did upset higher ranked Georgia 44-28. That way is right now Florida leading team to win the SEC East. But still some games to play.
Oregon won against Stanford their season opener 35-14, which does give them an instant boost on the division and on the TOP25 standings.
Indiana won against Michigan 38-21. This leads to 2 different things. The 1st is, that Michigans season is more or less over regarding any championship goals. The 2nd thing is, that Indiana is, I can't believe it, but it is that way, the biggest competition for Ohio State to win the division. Wow.
USC won against Arizona State 28-27. Not really a big win for USC to elevate them to higher ranked spots, but right now they don't deserve it and still, if they win all games the ranked will follow.
Liberty did upset Virginia Tech 38-35. This is quite huge and it won't come better for Liberty than this.
North Carolina won against Duke 56-24. That does at least inside the football world clearly say, which university leads this season inside North Carolina.
Maryland won against Penn State 35-19. Maryland is with their wins here and against Minnesota also a big story this year.
Pittsburgh won against Florida State 41-17. A really bad season for FSU. Not sure the new coach will survive this season.
And Oklahoma State won barely against Kansas State 20-18 on the road.

Canceled/Postponed games were 10 total, Purdue - Wisconsin, Air Force - Army, Tulsa - Navy, UTSA- Rice, Charlotte - Middle Tennessee, Arizona - Utah, Florida International - UTEP, Louisiana Tech - North Texas, Louisville - Virginia and Washington - California.
As you can see, that also includes 1 Big 10 game and 2 PAC 12 teams, which for sure do not re-schedule the games. Those are lost and will be missed to determine the right champion inside their division or conference.

Week 11 recaps:
Iowa did win against Minnesota 35-7. Minnesota was last season one of the big success stories, but they did so far start underperforming, at least regarding fan expectations.
Miami won a close game against Virginia Tech 25-24 on the road. Big win for them to remain in contention.
Indiana did blank Michigan State 24-0 and kept their win streak alive. Now they are ranked at #9. NINE!
Wisconsin destroyed Michigan 49-11 and that season might become the last of the big prophet Jim H. The success of Harbaugh is not really bad in win-loss percentage, but as Michigan the level of success is not measured in that category. It's measured in wins against rivals and championships.
Tulsa won against ranked SMU 28-24. Tulsa looks really strong this season.
Northwestern did beat Purdue 27-20, which does give Northwestern a big boost and Purdue has to re-evaluate their season goal.
Nebraska did beat Penn State 30-23. Penn State now on 0-4, could lead to a coaching change as well.
Ole Miss won against South Carolina 59-42, which did lead to the firing of Gamecocks HC Muschamps. He was never really successful in South Carolina, except his 2nd season with a 9-4 record and 2nd place inside the division. My feeling is, the university would like to be more like Alabama, Georgia or LSU, but the Gamecocks just not have the juice to be such. So they need a good coach now to further build up reputation and success. We will see, who they will hire.

A record 15 games were postponed/canceled.
Alabama - LSU, Texas A&M - Tennessee, Georgia - Missouri, Auburn - Mississippi State, Ohio State - Maryland, Coastal Carolina - Troy, Gardner-Webb - Charlotte, North Texas - UAB, Rice - Louisiana Tech, Memphis - Navy, Pittsburgh - Georgia Tech, Air Force - Wyoming, California - Arizona State, Utah - UCLA and UL Monroe - Arkansas State
So many big games, or at least important games.

If I did get the gossip right, there is a discussion whether to shift the post-season a few weeks, to make up on most of those games.
As far as I know, no decision was made so far, or say it a different way, the schedule remains in the big picture as it is.
The ACC did re-schedule some games, thanks to Miamis Covid-problems, but that does only involve a few teams.
Overall, right now, it seems we will somehow determine division champs/conference championship participants, and then it goes all more or less as before.

What's still open is, what will the conference do, if a team of the conference final has to cancel the game, or both. And what will happen if some teams will have to cancel the bowl games, worst case playoff games?
What a mess.

In week 12, we have so far 11 games cancel or postponed, but it's only Thursday.

#9 Indiana will travel to the horseshoe to battle #3 Ohio State. If Indiana pulls THIS upset, the sky is the limit. But OSU is 20.5 points favorite to win here.
#7 Cincinnati plays UCF. UCF is not as strong as in the past few years, still they have juice and play at home. Cincinnati needs to win this to have at least an outsider-chance to crash the playoff party.
#10 Wisconsin meets #19 Northwestern. Right now it looks like the winner will have basically a major advantage in the division title race.
UCLA @ #11 Oregon is highly anticipated. Chip Kellys old teams vs his new team. This would be more fun if played in LA, since I think the Bruins are not on the level of the Ducks for now and playing on the road will not help.
#14 Oklahoma State @ #18 Oklahoma. The Badlam Series has some juice extra this season. Sooners are in a 5 game winning streak and are favorite to win this. This rivalry usually has some different rules, so this might become a classic.
#20 USC will play on the road Utah. Last season did USC win the game, but Utah won the division.

'Til next time

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