Well a good win yesterday for the Aliens over divisional rivals Newhouse Eagles. However, if you have a faint heart don't watch the first 3 1/2 minutes which started with KO return of 53 yards by the Aliens, then a 43 yd Int Ret by the Eagles, then a 70 yd Fumble Ret by the Aliens.

The closest the Eagles got to scoring was a missed FG but there were some scary moments. Midway through the Q4 the Aliens fumbled the ball away, but later came up with an interception only to be held on a 3rd down play and miss a 21 FG.

Now we face a Bot and our two other division rivals in our last 3 games. None of us have clinched the division, a playoff spot or a wild card so there is a lot to play for - and although the Crows have the edge it is still possible for any of us to win the division. However, I have a feeling that only one of the other two will get a playoff spot.

Already at 8-5 we will at least equal our first season total of 9-7 but I'm hoping that we can improve on it. This is a very tight 3-way race.

With their recent victory against the Crows, the Blood Kings are likely to get the sixth and final spot in the playoffs.

It was a long road this season as we ended up transfer listing several key players in a crazy attempt to cut salary and be able to re-sign enough players to field a roster next season.

Who I am going to lay in the playoffs is still a question as seeds 2-4 have not been set yet.

Ham

Let's have a look for the last 3 games:

AC
AC East
Strike Team
Clearly the co-favorite to win the conference and won the division.
They lost the game against the Panthers which has set them back.
They have a quite easy rest schedule, so they probably will go unbeteaten in the last 3 games. The #1 spot in the conference will be decided by the Panthers - Shenkos game. If the Panthers lose, Strike Team will very likely be the #1, otherwise probably #2, because of PD.

Marines
Two wins did give them the 2nd place back. With 2 games behind in the playoff race and a tough last gameday, it looks only mathematical possible to reach the playoffs.

Versailles Knights
The did lose 2 in a row and dropped to 3rd place.
It looks unlikely they will catch the Marines with 2 games behind, even they have 2 BOT games.

Denver Broncos
Went BOT, will relegate.

AC North
Berinsfield Hornets
The Hornets did win the division.
I'm expecting them to play for #3 or #4 spot, the exact spot will be battled out against Army on 2015-07-07.

Florida Gators
They are 2 games behind the #6 spot in the conference.
It looks very unlikely they will get close to that. Assassinas would have to drop all games and they have to win all, since the PD is way in favor of the Assassinas. But 2nd place in the division looks secure.

Spawn City Killers
They are 2 games behind the Gators and 2 games ahead of relegation. Looks like the season is more or less over.

The Spartans
It looks like they will go into a relegation game, which would be a BOT oppponent.

AC South
Muppet Liberation Army
The loss against the Pigs did hurt their chances for #3 spot.
The Hornets game will be crucial for #3. The division is basically won.

Panteras Assassinas
They are on their way for the #6 spot and very likely will make it. They are 2 wins in the lead on 3 remaining games.
They are 2 games behind Army for the division title, so it is very unlikely they can get that now.

srib_bdx
They might win 1 more. Enough to avoid relegation and probably also a relegation game.

HARLEM KINGS
BOT, will relegate.

AC West
Paxtang Black Panthers
They will go for #1 or #2 in the conference.
Crucial game now is against Shenkos on 2015-07-04.
They have all the chances to become #1 in the conference.
If they lose against Shenkos, they might lose the division and will land at #5. It will then all comes down to PD and the BOT game of the Panthers at season final.

Skyzo Shenkos
They will wait for the big game against the Panthers. They have PD advantage against the Panthers now, but the Panthers will play a BOT at season final.
A win against them would give Shenkos eventually the division. Otherwise they are bound for #5.

BOIU
Very save from relegation and no playoff hope. Enjoy the last 3 games.

River City Ice
Went BOT, will relegate.

NC
NC East
Winds of Erytheia
The Winds are 1 game behind the #3 spot in the playoffs and might even get it. They have only 1 crucial game, against Bruisers.
If they win this also, it looks likely the can jump the Crows for #3.
Otherwise they get #4 spot.

Sentinels
They will lose some more games and will probably end up with a losing record, but still on 2nd place. No changes.

Gorillas
A jump to 2nd place is very unlikely with 2 games behind. They are 1 game ahead of a relegation game, so not save here.

93ers
They would need more than 1 win to avaoid direct relegation.
That's very unlikely.

NC North
Adelaide Crows
The Crows loss against Blood Kings did hurt them for the 1st round bye. They might even drop to #4 with their rest schedule.
The division is not won yet, but it looks quite likely they will get that title.
Pigs and Aliens do have a lighter rest schedule, but 1 of both teams would have to dominate the rest of the season, which I don't see.
Still, nothing sealed yet.
If they fall from 1st place, a playoff spot is unlikely.

Las Pezia Pigs
The Upset of the Army did help them keeping their playoff and division title hopes alive. The road game against Aliens at season final will eventuall decide the standings of 3 teams. Only the division champ will probably get a playoff spot.

Torchwood Aliens
The coming BOT game will correct the PD difference and then it will come down to the Crows and Pigs game.
The Crows are a road game, so that will be extra tough.
An upset there would bring them into a nice position.
Overall it looks unlikely both games will be won, which is probably enough for the Crows to seal the division. From schedule point of view, they have the best tools to still win the division, but also the most unlikely.

Newhouse Eagles
Also a nightmare rest schedule, so the team will probably play for a relegation game against one of the BOTs of level 2. No changes.

NC South
Down Under Devils
The Devils are still leading by 3 wins. Playoff spot is secured and the division will be won latest in 2 gamedays.
The #1 spot is very likely, #2 spot could happen.
Crucial game will be on last gameday against the King, probably not for the divsion, but for home advantage though the playoffs.

Blood Kings
The Kings are still 3 wins away for the division crown. They play the Wasserbube and the Devils to determain their playoff fate. They are leading by 1 win at #6 and 100 points in PD.
Still not save, but it looks like they will seal the ticket soon.

Vilbler Wasserbube
They have a rest schedule with tough games and easy games.
At the end. a .500 record will happen.

Paris Roosters
They will probably play for relegation games.

NC West
Harrisburg Fire
Now comes the real test. Games against Devils, Shenkos and Bruisers. I see them win the Bruisers game, the rest will be losses.
This will probably will come down to PDs.
They might end up at #2 to #3, depended on the other teams.

Burnaby Bruisers
Winning the last game against Fire will be the crucial one.
But they better also win the Winds game to be save.
Because PDs will be hard to calculate with the rest schedules.
This might give them the division and even a first round bye in the playoffs. Otherwise the will probably get #5 spot.

Peterborough Pirates
Some easier games are coming, so they will get out of the relegation game mix. But a winning record is impossible now.

Oakland Raiders
BOT team, will relegate.

If the Blood Kings win against the Vilbler Wasserbube tomorrow, they will have locked up the sixth and final playoff spot. The PD lead they have should allow them to survive even if they lose to the DUD's in the last game of the season.

But it will still be a close race and anything can happen!

Ham

Interesting gameday.

Most stunning game:
Blood Kings lose 17:33 to Vilbler Wasserbube.

Also remarkable:
Burnaby Bruisers wins 50:10 Winds of Erytheia

The rest was more or less as expected (at least for me).

Playoff spots:
AC:
AC East Strike Team
(Division won, can win the #1 spot with a win, about 100 PD up front, a loss might drop them even to #3, with a Shenkos win, into the wildcards)
AC North Berinsfield Hornets (Divsion won, can win #1 spot only by winning and a Strike Team loss. A loss might drop them to #3, with a Shenkos win, into the wildcards)

AC West Skyzo Shenkos
(Playoff spot secured, can win the divsion with a win and PD advantage (which is at the moment at +9, which is nothing). The divison win might bring them to #1 to #3 spot in the playoffs, depended on the games of Strike Team and Hornets. PD is better than the PDs of the other teams. A loss or a bigger Panthers win might drop them to #5)

AC South Muppet Liberation Army
(Playoff spot secured, can win the division with a win (against a BOT).)

AC West Paxtang Black Panthers
(Playoff spot secured. Can win the division with a high enough win against the BOT to overcome the -9 PD compared to Shenkos. Winning the division would give them #1 to #3 spot, depended on the Strike Team and Shenkos game. Otherwise the have to play as #5.)

AC South Panteras Assassinas
(Playoff spot secured. Because of the Army-BOT game, the division is out of reach. #6 spot will it be)

NC:
NC South Down Under Devils
(won the division and #1 spot.)
NC West Burnaby Bruisers (Playoff spot secured, can win the division by winning the next game or losing it with less then PD 50, since they play against Fire, which is 100 PD behind. Otherwise they would drop to #5)

NC North Adelaide Crows
(Nothing secured, can win the divsion by winning the next game. A divsion title would land them the #3 spot. A loss combined with a Pigs win would let them drop very likely out of the playoffs, because of PD)

NC East Winds of Erytheia
(Division is won, secured #4 spot)

NC West Harrisburg Fire
(Nothing secured, can win the division with a 51+ PD win over the Brusiers, which would land them the #2 spot. Otherwise a smaller win would secure the #5 spot and a loss might let them drop even to #6. A drop out of the playoffs is very unlikely.)

NC South Blood Kings
(Nothing secured, a win would very likely secure the #6 spot or might even give them #5 spot. A loss combined with a Pigs loss would very likely result also in a #6 spot, a loss and a Pigs win would let them fall out of the playoffs.)

NC North Las Pezia Pigs
(Need a win and a Blood Kings loss would let them get #6 spot, a win and a 104 PD gain against Blood Kings would be needed otherwise, which is very unlikely. So otherwise they will not get into the playoffs.)

NC North Torchwood Aliens
(would need a Blood Kings loss and a win over the Pigs and many many points to get into the playoffs. Mathematical possible, but very unlikely.)

Crucial games:
Adelaide Crows vs. Newhouse Eagles
Should be a win for the Crows.

Burnaby Bruisers vs. Harrisburg Fire
My pick are the Bruisers.
Otherwise a very close win for Fire.

Down Under Devils vs. Blood Kings
There is no reason to expect a letdown by the Devils.
So I pick them to win.
Otherwise a very close win by the Kings.

Florida Gators vs. Berinsfield Hornets
An close Hornets win.

HARLEM KINGS vs. Muppet Liberation Army
BOT bashing. High Army win.

Las Pezia Pigs vs. Torchwood Aliens
My pick is on an Aliens win.
Otherwise a close Pigs win.

Marines vs. Strike Team
I expect a Strike Team win.

Paxtang Black Panthers vs. River City Ice
BOt bashing. High Panthers win.

Skyzo Shenkos vs. BOIU
Quite high Shenkos win, but not in 3-figures dimension.

This would mean:
AC:
AC East Strike Team
AC North Berinsfield Hornets
AC West Paxtang Black Panthers
AC South Muppet Liberation Army
AC West Skyzo Shenkos
AC South Panteras Assassinas

NC:
NC South Down Under Devils
NC West Burnaby Bruisers
NC North Adelaide Crows
NC East Winds of Erytheia
NC West Harrisburg Fire
NC South Blood Kings

A disappointing loss to the Crows and that seems to have wrapped up the division and the only playoff spot available for NC North teams.

I cannot see the Crows losing to the Eagles and so the Pigs v Aliens games is totally meaningless. Yes, both Pigs and Aliens have a mathematical chance but the odds are about the same as winning the lottery - it happens but .....

So we have:
2015-07-14 17:00 Wildcard Playoff
Harrisburg Fire vs. Winds of Erytheia
Interesting matchup.
Fire did win this season and I think they will win again.
The Winds did not really play a convincing season so far.

Las Pezia Pigs vs. Adelaide Crows
Believe it of not, the teams did meet this season 3 times already.
Inside the division did the Crows sweep the Pigs in 2 games, inside the Supercup division did the Pigs win the game.
So, what will happen here?
I'm not picking against a Crows home game here.
It will be close, but I think the Crows are overall the better team.
But an upset is possible.

Panteras Assassinas vs. Paxtang Black Panthers
Not to honor the Assassinas results, but the Panthers are a bit better this season. They did meet once this season and the Panthers won 41:0.
I don't think the game will be that one sided, but I'm expecting a Panthers win at home.

Skyzo Shenkos vs. Muppet Liberation Army
This will be interesting. Probably the most interesting game of all wildcard games. Shenkos did not win the division by a few points, but do have a better record than Army. Overall I think both teams do have a chance to win here, but I'm leaning towards the Shenkos for this game.

So I was wrong a loss by the Fire meant that the Pigs v Aliens game was not meaningless but very meaningful for the Pigs. No idea what happened here. From our point of view it was a disaster - although a win for us would not have put us in the playoffs.

Maybe the change of players at OL didn't help as we were sacked more times than Peter Mandelson (a UK joke!), plus we missed two 'sitter' FGs, were picked off at our own 11 for a TD and just generally had a horrible night.

The good news? We kept pace with our first season record of 9-7 so pleased to be consistent and the team as a whole gained experience which is good being relatively young. So we expect better things next season with only one player retiring.

The Army win was for me a bit of a surprise, but that's part of the game.
Now the next round is up.

2015-07-18 17:00 Divisional Playoff
Adelaide Crows vs. Burnaby Bruisers
So far, the Crows have won all gmes against the Bruisers, last game in season 16. Now on the paper this will be an easy win for the Crows, but the Bruisers had some moments this season.
I hope it will be a nice game.
Still, I pick the Crows for one reason: The Bruisers haven't won so far a meaningful playoff game. I think it will be closer than in past years, but they will lose, again.

Harrisburg Fire vs. Down Under Devils
There is not much room for guessing here.
Fire plays one of the hottest teams in the region and will lose here.
They met this season already, Fire did lose 7:62.
An upset would be very surprising.

Muppet Liberation Army vs. Strike Team
This will be interesting. Strike Team is the team to beat in the AC since season 15 but did struggle each year in the conference championship game. Again they are the favorite to win the conference (at least for me) and will have a tough opponent in their first round.
Army did win the wildcard game and will face another challange as underdog.
My pick is, Army will lose in a close game.
Strike Teams should be able field their strength and hold the upset bid off.

Paxtang Black Panthers vs. Berinsfield Hornets
in league games did the Panthers always win those matchups against the Hornets. Twice were the Panthers the final game for the Hornets in the playoffs.
This season, the Hornets are the underdog, again.
I'm not very convinced the Honets will stand a chance here. The Panthers are tough and one of the top teams in the region, while the Hornets schedule looks like a walk in the park compared to the Panthers one, hence the good record.
I pick the Panthers and I'm not expecting a close game.

Even if I had all winners right, the results were a bit surprising.
Crows game was not as close as I thought it would be, the Devils win not as huge as I expected, the Strike Team win huge as in non-expected and the Panthers win was the only results in the same ballpark as I thought it would be.

No we get the next round:

Mid june I did made an early pick for those games:

Well ... here we are.

2015-07-21 17:00 Conference Championship
Adelaide Crows vs. Down Under Devils
The last time the Crows won against the Devils in an official game?
Season 4 by 6 points.
Of cause that's long gone and they did play very few games against each other since then. So, letzt look at the current season.
The devils won by 42 points. Only the small margin against Fire does my guts have doubts regarding the Devils.
Overall it's not enough to pick them not as the winner here.
But I don't think this will be huge win.
Expect a close game.

Paxtang Black Panthers vs. Strike Team
The last time Strike Team did win against the Panthers in an official game?
Season 6, with a huge margin.
Since then, nothing and sometimes they lost by a huge margin.
This season the Panthers won by 3.
Not much and Strike Team has home advantage.
I still pick the Panthers for a simple reason.
Strike Team did so far not win the real tough games.
During the regular season they are a manace to all other teams, but since the became regular playoff members, they did lose at some point.
I think they can do the next step, but my guts are saying they will fall again.Proof me wrong.