Week 9 Review

Only looking at 2 games today....

Werewolves 25 BPJ 21

The 10 drives in the first half were pretty boring with 8 of them punts. Budapest had an impressive 15 play 85 yard drive for a td and the Werewolves had a decent drive for a field goal. At halftime the score was 7-3 BPJ.

Three more punts to start the 2nd half before the offenses wake up. The next 5 drives are all scoring drives and over the course of 7 minutes half the points in the game are scored. Werewolves get 2 short field and get field goals and then an 85 yard punt return for a td. While the BPJ's throw touchdown passes of 69 and 80 yards to close the 3rd quarter with a 21-16 lead.

The fourth quarter the Werewolves had 3 drives for field goals while BPJ had 2 drives for punts. If BPJ was watching that game live I'm sure if felt demoralizing to watch the opponent pull to within 2 points then take a 1 point lead and then extend it to a 4 point lead and your offense managing 25 total 4th quarter yards.

Insult to injury is BPJ using MOTY which will put a hit on PC. Perhaps BPJ is looking ahead and saw the next 2 opponents have combined for 1 total win and will use this window to get PC back up. I absolutely understand the reasoning as you were playing the team that was leading the division at the time by 2 games and needing to make a move.

Turigtians 27 Panthers 25

Panthers started off the season with a quick 5-1 record. The last 3 games have all been close games up to the end losing by 8, 1, and now 2 points.

I don't know what else Panthers could have done in the game in all honesty. I mean absolutely no disrespect to Turigitians but this is a game that shows what happens when the ball bounces your way throughout.

The Panthers nearly double Turigtians in all offense categories while holding them to just over 300 total yards offense and only 13 first downs.

Turigtians benefited from:

An 85 yard touchdown pass on the 2nd play from scrimmage.

Panthers drives stalling inside the 5 yard line of TEC 3 times and getting only 2 field goals. One field goal attempt was a miss at 20 yards. That attempt was right before the TEC field goal to close out the game and take the lead.

At least two other panthers drives stalling in the red zone.

An 82 yard punt return for a TD

Converting a long 49 yard field goal for the win.


This is not to say that Turigtians is simply lucky or didn't deserve the victory as they have planned and put in the plays needed. However this win hinged on almost all of these things going their way for the win. If just one thing out of the punt return for a td, long td pass, just one of the 5 drives in the redzone not stalling out, or the missed field goal and they would have lost.

BIG week 10 outcomes!

Oldtown Rooks @ Alert Polar bears. APB missed a 56 yard FG try with 12 seconds left. BIG win for OTR 33-31

Jackalopes @ Deventer Devils. Huge game for king of AC conference pile.
DD had ball 4th and goal @ 6 yd with 6 secs to play and misses a FG? attempt - Jackalopes the win. 33-27

Panthers @ Paladins. Big 27-10 win for Panthers and breaks a 3 game losing streak. Paladin woes continue.

Mulheim Seahawks @ Quack Attack. 26-20 MS wins with 4th qtr come back!

Mulheim Steelers @ Werewolves. Tied entering 4th qtr @ 21. MS rips it in the 4th and wins it 38-28

Come back SF!!! We miss ya buddy!

Week 11 Preview

Thanks to Punch Drunk I can skip the recap!

We have 5 games this week to look at.

7-3 Alert Polar Bears @ 7-3 Mulheim Seahawks

Why it matters

Both of these teams are clinging to division leads. I do mean clinging ever so slightly especially for the Bears who are tied with Lonestar at 7-3 and have an advantage in PD by a single point. For the Seahawks they are one game up on Baltic but I expect Baltic to win this next game so a loss by Seahawks drops them into a tie and as of now there is only 16 points difference between them in terms of PD.

History and this game

They played each other last season with Bears eaking out a 28-26 win with a comeback in the 4th quarter. They met in the divisional round of the playoffs where the Seahawks enacted revenge by hammering the Bears 40-13.

Statistically the Bears have been superior this season relying on a solid defense and airing it out all day every day. Do they know that running the ball is legal? lol. Seahawks are more balanced on offense pass to run. I think for the Seahawks they are going to have to be able to be effective running the ball and keeping the big play in check when on defense to win this game. Honestly that is the formula for beating the Bears (tactically anyway), run and control the clock and keep them from getting the big play. Easier said than done.

Leaning towards the Bears winning but.....remember the playoffs?

8-2 Werewolves @ 9-1 Moors

Why it matters...

This one is simple. Wolves are a game behind the division leading Moors and this is the first of 2 matches between them that will most likely determine the division winner.

History and this game...

The only 2 matches between these two was in season 43 where the Moors easily dispatched the Werewolves.

The Moors don't seem to have any weaknesses as I can attest after getting drubbed by them myself in the last match. Werewolves are also fairly strong across the board. I think the Moors defense will be too much for the Werewolves. This is a good test for them vs Moors and will show where they sit in this 2 team race. I feel it will have to become a significant turnover advantage for the werewolves to come out on top.

6-4 Outlaws @ 8-2 OTR

Why does it matter?

Outlaws are clinging to a division lead as they are tied with Torpedos but have the tie breaker with PD. There is no clear favorite in that division and I think it will be a while before it is determined.

OTR started off hot with that 7-0 start but have lost 2 of the last 3 that included a drubbing at the hands of the Paladins, a loss to the resurgent Rio Atoms (who I think might win out the rest of the way to finish 11-5), and a squeaker of a win against Polar Bears. Looking at the remaining schedules I can absolutely see a 3 way tie at 11-5 with pd being tiebreakers. This division is a mile from being done!

History and this game

Outlaws have 3 of the 5 games vs OTR since season 43. The last game they played last season was a hell of a game! An OT game that had several pivotal points. You could make a case the Outlaws shot themselves in the foot in that game. With the game tied 20-20 and 31 seconds remaining in the 4th quarter the Outlaws had the ball and ran off 4 plays within the the 33 yard line of OTR. 2 of those plays were in the redzone. All of that without attempting a short field goal? Then in OT the Outlaws threw an interception that cost them.

Neither team has had a particularly difficult schedule with OTR having the 30th SOS and outlaws the 27th so far. The edge statistically has to be with the Outlaws. With a slightly tougher schedule they have the #1 defense. They are top 10 in all defensive categories. #1 vs the pass, #4 vs the run, and #5 vs scoring td's. Even on offense the Outlaws have outperformed OTR. What is going to probably hurt OTR is that they are 31st in defending the pass. It does seem to be stacking up in Outlaw favor but the wildcard in this game is that fact that both of these teams are tied for 3rd in getting turnovers. To add intrigue it is the Outlaws who are turning the ball over more than OTR which gives OTR a chance.

6-4 Panthers @ 7-3 Lonestar

Why does it matter?

Lonestar is literally 1 point in pd behind Bears for the division lead and have lost 2 of 3. Panthers started off 6-1 and had a one game lead over Jackalopes but have since lost 3 of the last 4 and is now 2 games behind Jackalopes. Panthers have got to stop the slide or risk dropping from the 6th seed to a 3 or 4 games out of the playoff picture. In addition the remaining Panther schedule is daunting as they face: Pikes, Jackalopes, Marines, Stars, and Quack attack who all have 5-5 records or higher.

History and this Game

Not a lot of history here as these managers have never faced each other.

This game might be the cure for the Panthers. They have one of the best defenses in the league and they are number 1 in rushing. Lonestar can throw and run but they turn the ball over 1.4 times a game which is double the turnover rate of Panthers. Neither team is prolific at forcing turnovers though. I feel the Panthers are going to play keep away by controlling the ball and hold Lonestar on offense.

7-3 Mulheim Steelers @ 5-5 Westlake Marines


Why does it matter?

Steelers are one game back in their division and need to keep pace. Marines started off 0-4 with a brutal schedule but has gone 5-1 since to put them in range of a playoff spot. There is a log jam for the 2 wildcard spots. 7 teams are 6-4 or 5-5.

I've run out of time to add anymore here. Just pointing out it is a pivotal game.

Perhaps I should retire lol. I couldn't have been more off base on some of these games.

I guess after looking more carefully I wasn't that far off. OTR won because of the turnovers. How does a team have 5 drives in a row end in fumble, int, int, int, int?

Panthers did play well but couldn't overcome an int and a missed field goal.

Definition of recap

1: a concise summary

Remaining SOS Remaining for Potential Playoff Teams

I'm just taking the record of the remaining opponents and compiling them into a quick % win/loss record.

AC East

Alert Polar Bears
Vs Dvision, Jackalopes, and Gardians for a 33-22, 60% opponent win rate.

Lonestar
Vs Division, Quack, and OTR, for a 30-25, 55% opponent win rate.

Paladins
VS Division, Rio, and Jackalopes for a 30-25, 55% opponent win rate.

All three teams have similar schedules left. Uphill climb for Paladins to win division but are still in it.

AC North

Calling it early, Jackalopes win division. I know it isn't mathematical yet but it would take every domino to fall a specific way to not work out like this. He would have to lose 4 of the final 5 games or lose 3 of the final 5 and have a worse PD to not win the division.

Sure he has the Bears and the Paladins left plus the three divisional opponents and not one of those games is a an easy one. It is a 32-23 opponent record. They did squeak past Panthers, lost a close game to Quack, and won by 10 to a now resurgent Westlake.

Not only would he have to lose those 3 or 4 games but he also would need one of those teams to sweep the other 2 since they all play each other at least once.

AC South

Devils will win their division at this point. Turigitians has 3 winnable games but would need to win all 5 and devils lose all 5. Wolves are 5-6 and would need Devils to go 1-4 the rest of the way (or 2-3 and lose big a few times for PD sake) while wolves go 5-0. Looking at their schedules....there is 2 games the Devils are a near lock to win. The wolves would need the Seahawks to beat Devils, have either Torpedos or Turigitans beat them, and then also win again vs Devils. It is unlikely but not impossible. One more loss by Wolves and it is over.

AC West

7-4 Baltic Stars
Vs Division, Werewolves, and Panthers 27-28 49%

7-4 Mulheim Seahawks
Vs Division, Devils, and Turigtians 24-31 44%

5-6 SF 49ers
Vs Division, Vipers, and BPJ 24-31 44%

Seahawks might be better positioned.

Baltic will find out soon if they are in it as the next 4 games are vs Seahawks, SF, Werewolves, and Panthers. The next game vs Seahawks is huge for Baltic.

I'm hanging around like that fruit fly that won't go away. lol. Unlikely for me to make up the ground as I'd have to win out. Not impossible but unlikely.

Will do NC in the next few days. East and North are more complicated and I'm too tired at the moment.

Thanks for all the hard work. sfniner..I enjoy reading your analysis!

You definitely need a rest before talking about NC. This is a wild playoff race.

Great work bro!