2024-07-26 09:53

When I did check for last season’s performance of the next conference, the Mountain West, I was surprised to see, they did less teams to a bowl than the previous previewed Sun Belt (7 vs 12 teams). There are 2 reasons for that.

For the start, the conference has only 12 teams and it's hard to bring in ALL teams with a positive record. It's because of the non-conference games not impossible, but quite tough and no conference managed to do that last season.

But the second reason does weight much more from my point of view. The Mountain West had a much tougher non-conference schedule than the Sun Belt. Most teams did play 2 to 3 power 5 conference teams for such games inside the MWC and many of those games were lost. Likely the money involved is needed for the teams and if they win such games, the effect is much bigger than a win against other, weaker conference teams.

So, I think placing the MWC here at 4th weakest conference is still valid. I still think they are stronger overall than the Sun Belt.

Mountain West Conference

The Mountain West had no changes in the past 2 seasons regarding team addition or departure. Right now, they face a strange threat, which might turn out to become a live saver or some sort of elevator.

With the PAC12 reduced to 2 teams but not willing to be eliminated, the PAC12 is on the hunt for additional teams.
They need 6 to 8 teams minimum.

Getting such from a power 5 conference is quite unlikely so it will be again hunting season inside the group of 5 conferences and the Mountain West is sitting geographically in almost perfect position.

Now the PAC12 and the MWC have signed an agreement to have a scheduling partnership for 2024 (not for 3 seasons I thought they did, right now only 2024) which allows the 2 PAC12 teams to play at least 6 games against MWC teams.

I could imagine that out of such an agreement a deeper partnership might come together, not naming it fusion.

Imagine the PAC12 gets the 12 MWC teams under their contracts and brand and the teams from the MWC, especially the more successful ones from the past, finally get the elevation they were looking for, to become a power 5 conference and teams.

Only that there is only power 4 conferences left and there will be likely never a power 5 brand again. But at least the dream might be there.

The PAC12 contracts and income should be a boost for the MWC teams. But this is all speculation.

It could be, that the PAC12 picks the cherries out of the MWC, like San Diego State, Boise State, Nevada and Colorado State and leaves the rest. I don't know.

My guess is, the conference will change in the next 3 seasons, somehow.

This season they have the same 12 teams as last year and Boise State is expected to repeat. Next in line is UNLV and Fresno State. Several teams are also in the mix, but that would from my point of view depend on whether the mentioned 3 teams do underperform.
The top 2 teams will battle it out for the Mountain West Championship.

Boise State had a quite strange season last year. They started with 2 losses, won some, lost some and were 5-5 when they beat New Mexico at home. AFTER the game, the HC was let go and Spencer Danielson, the DC at that time, was named interims coach for the last 2 remaining games. It seems the program feared a losing season and made that heavy change. Danielsons Broncos did win the next 2 games, won the Championship game and lost in the bowl game, finishing 8-6. After the season the interim tag was removed, and the HC can now work in his 1st full season. The offense is loaded and has several starters back. QB is a risk, the likely starter is a transfer from USC and will either become a star or not. The defense is more a concern and might become their weak spot. But a few key players are back to get the unit in shape. Because of the PAC12 contract the team has only 7 conference games and 5 non-conference games. The non-conference games are mixed and might bring the Broncos some losses. The conference games are almost too easy with only UNLV on the road and no Fresno State and no Air Force included. I think the team will easily get a TOP 2 spot.

With UNLV we might see a rematch of last season’s championship game (against Boise State) under Barry Odom. He is now in his 2nd season and the 1st was really a blast to see. The team did only struggle late in the season and lost 3 in row, including the championship game and the bowl. The 9 wins was the best result since 1984, so expectation will be high in the desert, suddenly. The team lost their starting QB in the transfer portal, but gained two FCS stand-outs. It will be open, who will be the starter and whether that will be enough. The rest is almost intact and consists mostly of returning starter, including the line. The defense got an almost complete overhaul, so it will be interesting to see, whether the new unit will beat the stats of the old unit (which was not very good). If the transfers do work together, they might improve the defense. The schedule consists of many tough games, but also many quite soft ones, so the season will depend on the results in the tougher ones.

Fresno State is in a tough position this season. Their HC did step down mid-July because of health issues and now Tim Skipper, the former LB coach and assistant HC of the team, was named interims HC. That's a change which might derail the team completely or it will bond them together. The offense is in good shape to become one of the best of the MWC, the defense did struggle a bit last season and it's not clear, in which direction the unit will go. Key players are back, but not many, so the unit has to find its starters and then execute well, if the team wants to play for a title. The schedule is not too hard, so the team should be able to get a bowl bid easily, but I doubt they will leapfrog to top 2 position.

Troy Calhoun is in his 18th season with Air Force and one of the HCs with the longest period on a team active (he is 4th). His record with the Falcons is great, the seasons with a losing record are few (4), those with a bowl are many (13) and you have to expect a tough opponent if you play Air Force every season. Last year the team did start with such a great streak, that the team became ranked and was close to get into the MWC Championship game. But a 4-game losing streak at the end of regular season did push the Falcons out of the top 2 spot. This season the team has just a few returning starters and most of the reloading has to happen on offense, where the whole line and the running game has to be re-staffed. The defense should be much better than the offense with several returning starters. But the mechanics on an academy program are a bit different, so I don't expect the team to fall too deep. Whether they can again win 9+ games as in the last 3 seasons is up to see. Non-conference games are OK, conference games are actually almost as fluffy as they can be, so they might look better than they are.

Jay Norvell is in his 3rd season of rebuilding the Colorado State Rams. He did take the teams from 3 wins to 5 wins and almost to a bowl, but the loss against Hawai’i on last gameday did send the team in an early off-season. All signs do point towards an increase in total wins, since the offense should be in better shape than last year. The defense might be a bit shaken up but should be close to last season’s performance. Their schedule is quite OK, they might squeeze out some wins from the non-conference games and the conference games are also quite soft, if the team will perform as expected. They avoid Boise State and UNLV.

Wyoming lost their HC to retirement and elevated last 4 seasons DC Jay Sawvel to HC. He inherits a team, which was bad and got elevated into a winning team for the past 10 seasons. It never won the championship but came close in 2016 by 3 points. The offense returns 4 starters on the line and the top RB, but the QB will have to settle in as starter. They have seven starters returning on defense so keep the team in the game. Their schedule is quite tough, likely they will get some win, non-conference and in conference, but they face several good teams and the likely best at home. I think the transition to the new coach will have a setback to last season’s result, but likely they will get to a bowl.

Talking about a transition, imagine you got hired as DC and suddenly your new team did award you the interims HC job, when the HC was dismissed because of compliancy issues regarding sexual misconduct of players. The now former HC of Utah State will bring this to court and likely this will be settled outside a court, but that does not change the situation Nate Dreiling is now in, taking over the team in Summer. He was the DC of New Mexico State and has now to guide the team as his 1st HC gig through the season. Roughly 20% of the team did leave in winter and were substituted by transfer players, of which a lot of the offense has to be built around. Good news is the average line of last season returns all starters and will hopefully become a bit better. The defense was bad last year, hence the new coordinator-now-HC, and the team will have to adjust to the changes. It's open how this will happen, and the results will look like. My take is the team will eventually start slow and might grow over the season. Their schedule is quite heavy, but it gets a bit easier late in the season, so maybe they will turn things around at that point, if not already before.

San Diego State was bad last year, and their HC was let go, officially retiring. The team did s e l e c t former Kent State HC Sean Lewis, who left with a 24–31 record, including the 1st bowl win ever in 2019. Last year he was the OC of Colorado and did now decide to take on the Aztecs. The teams did get a major overhaul from the transfer portal, which includes both side of the ball. That is of course a chance to get the team into the direction the HC wants it. The non-conference schedule is quite OK, they might win a few of those, the conference schedule does at least tease so many losses that the team will likely have no bowl game to worry about.

Timmy Chang is now in his 3rd season with Hawai'i and he raised the win level from 3 to 5 in his first 2 seasons. The 3rd season is usually the breakthrough season or not. Not many coaches do survive a 'or not' season, but I think Chang is heading into the right direction. His offense should make a leap forward with one of the top QBs returning, his backfield is good, only the line needs improvement, but at least 3 starters are back, so experience does grow. The biggest problem was always the defense, and a new coordinator is hired to fix this. The line is not in good shape and needs work, but LBs and DBs are in good condition. This season the team does not play a 13-game regular season, even they keep playing at week zero. That means they did either on purpose add a bye week or were unable to find an opponent for that 13th game. They play 2 FCS teams as non-conference games, which means, only 1 of those will count for a bowl spot. Their conference schedule is quite tough, and I don't think it's a good thing they face the tough teams at home and most of the mid-level teams on the road. The home field advantage of Hawai'i is huge, but the other way around they might have had a good chance to make a bowl. The way it is now, I think they will eventually stay in the games longer, but I doubt they will crack 6 wins.

San Jose State lost their HC to a better paid job and the team made a small splash by hiring former Navy HC Ken Niumatalolo. In 15 seasons with the Midshipmen, he did see it all, great seasons and bad seasons, but had when he left a good winning record. The situation at SJSU is tough, but he had to deal with tough situation with the academy program also. The difference is of course, the system works different. Unfortune for him, the Spartans are a real rebuild program. The WR-crew is good, but a new QB and an o-line needs to be found. The team will likely not play the option, as Navy did under Niumatalolo. The defense is in complete makeover mode, with just 2 starters back, but they kept the coordinator, so the personal should work good under him. Non-conference schedule is quite fluffy, the conference schedule hard. Overall, the team will likely have a rough season adjusting to the new setup.

New Mexico made the biggest splash in the coaching hires in the off-season. They were able to get former BYU and Virginia HC Bronco Mendenhall, who is well respected and had an excellent record with BYU and did breathe life into one of the worst programs inside the ACC. Now he is with the Lobos and does face another rebuilding / reanimating job. The Lobos were shit since 2016, where they were in a 3-team-tie for the division title (but not went to the championship game) and won a bowl, finishing 9-4. Since then, the team did not win more than 3 games a season. The offense brings back the QB, who did show some signs of progress, but the rest will be more or less new as starter. The defense was bad last year, and the incoming transfers will likely be upgrades by default. The schedule is tough for almost every matchup, so it will depend on how the team will adjust to Mendenhall and how he can unite the squad. They might come up with more wins than I expect, but Mendenhalls 1st season with Virginia had also only 2 wins, so expectation is, adjustments, a few wins and next season the team will fly better.

Nevada is one of the more respected programs in the Mountain West. Jeff Choate was the HC of Montana State and in the past 3 seasons the Co-DC of Texas. He is hired to bring Nevada back to the mid- to top-level it was before it joined the MWC 2012. He faces a total rebuild, which might happen faster than it seems. The team was bad the past few seasons, but eventually the problems were more mentally than physically, at least on offense. Several good players are on the roster, at least on paper, they just have to play together and be guided to success. The defense is a bigger piece of work, but with the portal, this might be improved significantly, especially under a former DC as HC. But the schedule is quite tough and the workload will be high, so I don't expect an instant turnaround.

Last season the MWC took a step back in the level of strength from my point of view. Maybe, with all the additions, they can turn the ship around this or next season. Biggest question will be, how this partnership with the PAC12 will turn out.

And since at some point I have to deal with them, I put the Indies in this preview also. Not many teams are left, since many did decide to join conferences for more stability and a more plannable revenue transmission.

Independent

Right now, only Notre Dame has the name and the level of quality to get a TV contract done worth a major budget. Actually, their contract is roughly on par with the BIG 10 teams and Notre Dame gets on top money from their ACC-contracts, which brings them almost to the level of the SEC teams have 2024 onwards. But their contract with will run out with NBC in 2029 and then the future of the team will be decided. Because they will need at least a similar contract, if not higher, next to stay in the top. If they fail to get that, they will be better off in one of the top conferences, which would likely add them with a happy face. The other Indy teams are bugs compared to those discussions. Only Notre Dame, UConn and UMass are left, and UConn and UMass are more basketball schools in conferences which do not support football. They are looking for sure for a good conference to fit the team in, and UMass decided to join the MAC (which is not a good one), likely to have plannable revenues on the team. Compared to last season it's one team less, since Army did join the American Conference since this season.

Notre Dame has Marcus Freeman as HC in his 3rd season. He did win 9 games and 10 games so far with the team and both bowls in the past 2 seasons. What he did lack was a chance for a playoff spot, which was OK, since the team did lose too many games during the regular season to finish TOP4 and their schedule at all was usually too soft with those many ACC teams involved. Remember the unbeaten ACC Champ Florida State did not make it to the playoffs in 2023. But this season there are 12 spots to fill for the playoffs and that's a group Notre Dame could jump into, if they win all games or almost all games. Last season they were AP ranked at 14 after regular season and also after the bowl, so quite close, and with a win or 2 more, they would have cracked the TOP12 easily. Their offense should be in good shape, even they are rebuilding/reloading their o-line. Notre Dame had since seasons very good liners, so the new starters should get the job done. They landed a good QB on the transfer market. The defense was in good shape last year and returns 5 starters of that unit and has several backups under the DC in his 2nd season. Expectations are, the unit will stay on top, one of the best in the country. Assuming a top team for this season, their schedule looks mostly like a walk in the park. Even the SEC matchup against Texas A&M looks easy, since A&M has a new coach and was bad the past few seasons. Florida State and USC will likely be the toughest opponents, but we will see. Last year the team did basically stumble over Louisville, which did send the team 10+ spots down the AP poll rankings and they did only slowly recover. If the team avoids such an upset, they have all the chances to finish TOP12 (even that does not mean they will get a playoff spot by default). If they get a playoff spot, the real value of the team will be shown by how far they will come against the top teams in the country. Expectations are high in South Bend.

UConn, the University of Connecticut, is in Jim Moras hands since 2022. After an initial 6-7 bowl loss season did the team drop in performance 2023 to 3 wins. The offense needs several new starters because many did leave via portal. The team did add several players, but how they will perform will be open. So, offense is a concern. Mora did switch both coordinators to address the lack of performance of last year. The defense lost their best players also, so this unit will need to find good replacements also here. The good news is the schedule is quite easy and it's not impossible the team will win more games than the 3 they won last year. But to be honest, it will heavily depend on the teams’ progress to bond together under the current conditions. Mora is experienced enough to get this done and then the team will maybe even get back to 6 wins, but if some pieces don't fit or click, they will have a long season.

UMass, University of Massachusetts, is the last team on the Indy list, another homeless team for 2024. In 2025 they will join the MAC and will have a more stable schedule and income. Don Brown is in his 3rd season with the team as FBS team, overall, he is in his 8th. His 1st season as FBS coach was rough, with just 1 win, last year he got the team to 3 wins. The team will aim to win a few more games this season, which would be the best season since 2018. The offense has his QB back and he has potential. Unfortune the star RB did transfer to a power-5 school and leaves a gap. The WRs are fine and in summery the offense will be not the best of the country, for sure. The defense was not good last season and only if the incoming players do provide an upgrade the team will become better. Hard to judge, but likely they will get better, a bit. Why the coordinator did keep his job (while the offense has a new one) is beyond my understanding, the unit was so bad last year, the opponents just had to run to win games. The schedule is a mix of fluffy (2 FCS teams) and tough (Missouri, Liberty, Mississippi State) so it's hard to say, where the team will land at season finale. End of the season does eventually feature the suck-vs-suck-bowl against UConn, which is a rivalry game. Last year the Huskies won and right now I would bet this season this will happen again.

Next week then the American Conference and likely also the PAC12 with those 2 teams.

'Til next time
Jack6 on BLOCK OF GRANITE

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