2024-08-06 14:40

Over the weekend the info came in, how the money of the antitrust lawsuit settlement between the NCAA and the college players will look like, roughly.

The plan lacks several details, but does also give some insights on the dimension.

The money involved is about 2.78 billion dollar and any division I athlete playing any sport since 2016 is eligible to receive money out of this pool for past damages. The amount a player will get will be determined by a proposed formular, which was not part of the article I did read.

It has to be assumed that this formular will rely heavily on the sex of the player, the sport(s) the player did participate in and the level of importance the player had in that sport. But that's my take on that, because I don't think it will be equally spread over all athletes and some hints for such kind of different amounts of money are given.

For example, it was said, that men from Football or Basketball teams of power conference schools will be eligible for an average of 135 thousand dollars, women of basketball schools on the same level would be eligible for 35 thousand dollars. It is assumed that the highest amount for a single player will be about 1.8 million dollars.

For the future it is stated that school are allowed to pay their athletes directly via NIL deals, up to 22% of the average revenue that power conference schools get from media rights, ticket sales and sponsorships. Estimate is per school between 20 and 22 million dollars when this comes to affect the 1st time and it is expected the figure will grow over time to 33 million in 10 years.

When tuition and other benefits are included, the schools will share close to 50% of the revenue generated and this calculation will consider all athletes as one group.

NIL-deals with 3rd parties will be still allowed for athletes.

And the NCAA will remove the scholarship limits for schools.

That's it so far in short. A tough cookie for the schools and sports. I'm not sure how this will affect the individual athlete, but it can be assumed the rich schools will in some sort of benefit from this more than the others.

What it does not state is, how this will affect smaller schools. It says, 'Division I', so in Football that means FBS and FCS. And it says as examples always 'power conferences' but never how this will affect the others.

Some schools barely get the program running with the money they have. If now 50% of the money goes into the players benefits, how will this affect the teams? If 20-22% has to be PAID directly, that money has to be taken from other outgoing positions, means, coaches, facilities, traveling, supporting staff.

Interesting times, as it seems.

Let's get to the Conferences previews again.

As last group of 5 conference the American Athletic Conference is left. I'm not sure they were really the best conference of the group of 5 last year, but I think this season the money the new teams get from the big move of last season will get into effect, slowly eventually.

They did send only 6 teams to a bowl (out of 14) and got a record of 3-3. The reason for the quite low number of eligible teams was their absolute disastrous record against power 5 schools during the regular season (1-20) and also a not very convincing record against all other conferences (10-12), except the FCS games, which they all won. Here for sure the realignment did hit the level of strength hard, since some of the best schools left (3) for 2023 and the incoming teams (6) were Conference USA teams until then.

So maybe the level of the conference this season is more based on hope and faith, than in facts.

American Athletics

The conference did again have a change for the worse (at least on 1st view) since SMU, the AAC Champion of last year, did leave for the ACC and Indy team Army, a mid-level team at best, did join the conference to keep the conference at a level of 14.

The conference has no divisions, like last year, and the 2 best teams will play for the Conference Championship.

Since the champion of last year did leave the conference, the field for the new champion is quite open. In fact, also because of the massive changes of the past few seasons, the champion of the past 3 seasons was always a different one. Cincinnati in 2021 (won also 2020), Tulane in 2022 and SMU in 2023 won the conference. Two of those are gone.

This season, Memphis is primed to be the top contender, but UTSA, Tulane and South Florida are not far behind. Interesting in this group is, UTSA is one of those CUSA-teams, which was brought in last year. Did not take long for them to rise in strength.

So, let's start with Memphis. Ryan Silverfield is in his 5th season and guided the team to a 10-3 record last year, including a bowl win. That's the best record they had under his reign. He has on offense back his QB as senior, several top WRs and a few liners. With several good incoming transfers, the offense is primed to be in excellent shape. The defense has a new coordinator and returns only 4 starters. This unit will be essential to either get to the level expected (Championship game, FBS playoffs) or not. Transfers are brought in to enhance the unit and to make it better than last year (which was the reason the team did not get to the championship game in 2023). The biggest games the team has this season are Tulane and UTSA, both on the road. And of course, FSU as non-conference game will be a tough one, but the rest is quite easy. They have the best shot for the championship game this season, they better work for that.

Jeff Traylor is in his 5th season with UTSA and won the CUSA back-to-back before the team moved to the AAC. Here the team did record a 9-4 season in their 1st year, including a bowl win. This season they have to get a new QB in the mix, but whoever that will be can rely on a veteran line (4 starters back) and a good backfield. The defense was quite good last year and returns 6 starters, so the foundation is good. The non-conference games are OK, but Texas will be a very likely loss. Inside the conference the team has a quite favorable schedule, so they might sneak into the top 2 by just winning the games they have to play. They avoid Tulane and play Memphis at home, which could not be better, IF the team gets to that level.

Tulane had for 8 seasons a HC, who did elevate the team from a almost constant losing teams (last conference championship prior that HC 1998, last bowl 2013 and before that 2002) into a regular contender who won the conference 2022 and did play for the title again in 2023. At some point someone did recognize the progress and hired the coach away to a better paid job at Houston and a new coach had to be found. Jon Sumrall was found as former HC of Troy, winning the Sun Belt in 2023 and 2024. He inherits the team, which lost their QB and several other key contributors, so he did hit the portal hard and found several players bound to become starters. The success of the team will be judged on those personal decisions and how good the team will come together under the new coach. Sumrall did good at Troy, so there is no reason to believe he will fail here, but you never know. Non-conference games are filled with 2 tough cookies and 2 not so tough ones, the conference games are quite soft, except the Memphis game on last gameday, which is at home. If the pieces come together fast, this team might get back to the championship game.

Next up, South Florida. The 1st Bulls HC end of the 90s did very well and did establish the team as a tough one. He was fired because of the way he treated players and was never a HC since then. But the following HCs did usually worse and the last one prior the current one did win only 4 games in 3 seasons. Enter Alex Golesh as new HC last season, who did turn the team around in just 1 year, won 7 games including a bowl game and has the team right now in consideration to be a contender. The core offense players, including the QB, RB and 4 liners, are back. The line needs to get better, but hope is, the exp does help to get better results this season. The contention will be likely limited by the defense performance, which was last year bad and with 8 returning starters is this season another hope project. If the team can progress and gets better on this side of the ball, the team will contend, if not, a bowl is likely possible. The schedule overall is quite mixed, with several good teams on the list, but also several weaker ones. They play Tulane and Memphis early in the season and that will show, how the team will play.

Army did join the AAC this season and they might get a good start. Jeff Monken is in his 11th season with the team and managed to win at least 6 games in the past 4 years and in 7 out of 8 seasons also. Last year it was a 6-6 campaign, which included 2 FCS wins, so no bowl possible. This season the team returns the core of their option offense (which did click late in the season last year) and just a small amount of returning defense players. The more challenging schedule will be tougher than last season but still does not include Memphis and Tulane, just UTSA, and as sidenote the Navy game end of the season is valued as non-conference game this season. We might see a similar transition as last year, with a weak start and a great finish. The key will be the defense. If they click early, the team might end with 8+ wins. If not, the team will have a long season.

Rice is guided by Mike Bloomgren since 2018 and last year he had the best season ever on that challenging team with 6 wins and a bowl loss. Sounds not great, but Rice IS a tough job, and the team does move into the right direction. Not many starters back, but the incoming transfers are very good, so likely the team will get better. On defense 8 starters are back and will likely be better than last year. The non-conference games might bring them several wins, the conference schedule is loaded with top teams, but that's normal, if you are not one of the top teams. Still, Tulane, Memphis and UTSA will not help to get wins. I think the team is close to either get again 6 wins or more. Contention is likely not an issue.

East Carolina did have a bad season last year, the worst under HC Mike Houston. Now in his 6th season the team does better rebound fast, otherwise the program might get nervous. A new coordinator and several transfers from power 5 schools as QB are brought in to solve the bad passing game of last season. If that works, the rest looks OK, since they have a RB back, the #1 WR and 4 O-liners. The defense has 6 starters back, including 2 very good men on the line. The non-conference schedule is quite fluffy compared to other AAC teams but features Liberty and Appalachian State. More relevant is, they avoid a lot of contenders inside the conference, so the team has all the chances to bounce back.

Florida Atlantic did hire former Texas HC Tom Herman last year to guide the team back into the top level it was a few seasons ago under Lane Kiffin. The problem is that was in the CUSA and between the coaches was another coach for some seasons to mess things up. The QB situation is not solved, but potentially the team might become better than last year. The rest of the starters on offense will likely be transfers, with some exceptions. The defense has 6 starters back and also several portal additions, so it's believed to be as good as last year, or better. Beside Michigan State are the non-conference games very fluffy and inside the conference the team avoid all top contenders. Since they did lose last season a lot of games, but many in a close way, all signs to point towards a much better record this season.

Eric Morris is in his 2nd season with North Texas and his progress so far was quite good. Several losses were close, if he can convert those to wins, the team would go bowling this season. Last season the offense was great, but several starters are gone, including a line, which has to be reloaded. The defense was strengthened with several portal additions and brings back 5 starters. On this side the team needs to make big progress compared to last year to win more games. Inside the conference will the team play a very tough schedule, so the eventually the wins have to come from the non-conference schedule, which is mixed. Right now, I'm not convinced the team will get a bowl spot.

Navy did miss a bowl spot last season by some very close games. Brian Newberry is in his 2nd season and should correct this. A new coordinator an offense should fix the production issues last year, but the QB situation is not solved and beside those only 5 starters are back. Maybe the defense with 7 returning starters can push the team into the bowl eligible sphere. The non-conference games are mixed, but overall, not in their favor, the conference games do feature a lot of contenders, so it will be close regarding the 6+ wins.

Trent Dilfer is now in his 2nd season with UAB and as expected was the 1st season not much fun. But the team did win 3 out of 4 inside the AAC. The QB is a lock and very good, but the rest needs improvement or new starters. If Dilfer can solve the o-line issues of last year, the team will likely be good on offense. The games were lost last year on defense and that needs to be improved, big time, to become a bowl-eligible team. With only 4 starters back new starters have to be found, but according to some pre-season voting, the roster has several good players. So, if the unit clicks, we might see a surprising rising team. Beside Arkansas as non-conference team, the other games outside the AAC are very manageable. The rest is quite a mix of tough and not so tough games, so we might see enough wins in total to play in a bowl.

Another 2nd season HC is Kevin Wilson with Tulsa. The team won 4 games last year, but several of the losses were close ones, late in the season. The offense has a biggest question mark the o-line with just 1 returning starter, the rest should or could be OK. The defense will be a magical mystery. Just 3 starters back did the HC hit the portal hard and the outcoming mix is almost bound to be better than last year (which was bad), but you never know how much better or if ... non-conference games are mixed, the conference games quite easy, but as such a weak team, most are based on last season results a challenge.

Charlotte had, since it was resurrected in 2013 as football program, just 1 winning season (2019 7-6, including a bowl loss), but that HC did never copy that success and was let go 2022 after a very bad start. The team did finish 3-9 that season and hired a new HC, Biff Poggi, now in his 2nd season. Last year the team finished again 3-9 and the coach did try improving both units by adding transfers. It is expected that the units will improve, how much is anybody’s guess. Their offense was bad last year, so that will need a big step up to get more wins, while their defense does not really need a lot to be competitive. The non-conference games will be challenging, and of course will the conference look down on Charlotte, and they will be the underdog in almost every game. Hard to pick, whether they will really win more games than last year, but it would be an improvement, if the team would just come together and play tougher.

In the past 2 seasons did Stan Draytons Temple team win 3 games, each season. That is by far not enough to stay much longer. So, the team will have to win more, or it will look for a new coach fast. The bad news is, their starting QB did transfer, and the team needs to find a new QB. The backfield is quite loaded, but the o-line has just 2 returning starters and needs improvement. The defense returns in total only 3 starters of a quite bad unit of last season. That means, there is a big chance the new people, backups and transfers, will a l t e r the setup dramatically. The direction of the change will be open. The non-conference games are quite challenging, the conference games mixed and quite average, which means for a bad team, every game will be a challenge.

The conference is still in a regrouping / re-finding / rebuilding phase, but I think many teams are moving into the right direction. How the upcoming changes will impact the conference is open, but I doubt the conference in total will jump much higher. Whether some teams might leave for the PAC12 is also open. Some teams have the chance to actually making the playoffs, but I think 1 to 2 losses will eliminate them.

And as next conference I have the PAC12, which is a tough cookie to tackle right now.

PAC 12

Left by all teams except the 2 smallest ones the conference is not in a good shape. It basically lost their status as power 5 conference and as it seems right now, the conference has only 2 options, disband or add teams. I guess a fusion with another conference as I did hint with the Mountain West preview is also an option, but that is more or less depended on the execution also a disband or some adding.
So far, no news on how the conference will go on, they did in the past few months for sure state they want to add teams, but to do so, they must find willing teams and that offer must be worth it. With the loss of the power 5 status one benefit of the conference of the past is gone, so from my point of view only money is the remaining benefit and I guess that is right now tough to calculate.

This season the conference will not play a championship game. Both teams will play a big amount of Mountain West teams to fill up their schedule.

I start with Oregon State, since I believe they are in a bit better shape. The Beavers lost their HC to Michigan State and the new HC is Trent Bray, the DC of the Beavers in the past 2 seasons. So the idea is, the transition is not that hard, right? Well at least on offense the team will have an almost new look with a new system, new QB, a rebuilding o-line and new WRs. The starting RB did transfer out, but the backups are very good, so this will be likely the anchor to work with. The defense will have to carry the team, with a good unit, which lost just a few starters and has a lot of depth. The schedule features a good mix on challenging teams and mid-level or even low-level teams, which should give the team a good chance to play for a bowl spot. The internal matchup against Wazzu is end of November, if you want the Championship game, and is played in Corvallis, Oregon.

Washington State is in the 4th season of Jake Dickert (his 1st was as interims coach not full, but who is counting ...) and the team did take a step back last year by just winning 5 games. The QB did leave to Miami, so the team will play a new one. The rest looks quite ok, but is also a mix of returners and transfers and most concerning is the o-line, which was not very good last year. The defense was mid-level last year and lost a lot of starters, so this unit will look different, which can be good or bad. The team plays even more games against the Mountain West (6 by the contract + 2 by long-term commitments), so overall the team will have all the chances to win enough games to get into a bowl. But with so many question marks on the roster, it will be interesting to see, how the team will develop over the season. I expect a rough start, even they play a FCS team at 1st.

That's it for the PAC12. I hope the conference get their stuff together, but I fear, the work ahead of them is too big. Most realistic for me is, they will find some sort of agreement with the Mountain West.

Next preview then the ACC.

'Til next time
Jack6 on BLOCK OF GRANITE

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