2024-08-09 13:34

Right now, the news on college football are quite low, likely because the season starts in about a month and also the Olympics take away the sports focus.

This week I start with the likely weakest former power-5 now to be called power-4 conference, the ....

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE

The ACC is right now in the worst positions of all power-4 conference, because they have still the fight ahead of them, the others did already have (basically that is the BIG-12, which lost several teams and added new ones and is now to be considered quite stable) or did already profit from (the SEC and the BIG10 did gain several high profile teams from different conferences and are now bigger and better than ever) and the anger of several members do rise.

Florida State and Clemson did sue the conference on the long running marketing contracts and the conference did counter-sue the 2 teams. As far as I know, other did not neither join, nor did they state to NOT join. It seems the other teams are waiting on the ruling and then we will eventually see some movement, or not.

The worst case for the teams is, all have to fulfill the marketing contract until 2030 something and THEN those wanting to leave have the chance to leave, if they find conference which would like to add them at that time. That would mean, the teams will fall behind for at least 6 seasons, which is a lot. The worst case for the conference is, in some sort of immediately ruling the marketing contract is cancelled and any team can leave, if they find a new home. That would hurt the brand of the ACC, reduce the number of teams and since the bigger teams would likely leave, would make a new contract with more money harder to get.

Right now, I would bet on the conference regarding the contracts and the teams, which are unsatisfied have to find other ways to eventually getting more money.

The conference did add several teams this season. They got from the PAC-12 Stanford and Cal and from the American Athletic did SMU join to boost the conference to 17 teams.

The highest placed 2 teams will play for the AAC Championship, which was won last year by an up to then perfect Florida State team. FSU was then placed at #5 of the playoff rankings and by that was left out of the playoffs, playing 'only' a highly paid new-years-bowl against Georgia and lost by a mile and more. As much as I can understand the loss of motivation, once the ranking was published and it was clear that a perfect team would NOT play for a national championship, while 2 1-loss teams (Texas and Alabama) did make the cut and played in the semi-finales, as much I'm shaking my head over the lack of commitment inside the bowl game, because that major loss did seemingly prove, that the ACC is a weak conference and the committee had done the right thing.

Well, this season the things do look different, because the 5 highest ranked conference champions will play for a national championship and beside that 7 at-large-spots are available on top. Not really comparable, because the PAC-12 does no longer count, but based on last season’s result, FSU would have played in the playoffs as 5th conference champ. Since the PAC-12 is gone, it's quite likely that the ACC Champ is 99% a lock for a playoff spot.

The usual suspects are in the favorite role in 2024, FSU and Clemson, with FSU a small step in front. Right behind Clemson is a wider field of contenders, which might challenge the 2 top teams, or at least do make their lives tougher. That field include Miami (FL), Louisville, North Carolina State and Virginia Tech. Last year, 11 teams out of 14 went to a bowl (5-6 in record), but this season it's open, whether again only 3 teams will miss a bowl. My guess is it will be more.

Despite a heavy loss of starters is Florida State favored to get back into the championship game. Mike Norvell is in his 5th season in Tallahassee and has improved the team each season, from bottom to championship last year. The finish of the season is debatable, still the name of the program rings high again and did help to give the 8 remaining starters help by a heavy load of transfers, including a well-known former Clemson QB looking for money and a high-profile program to boost his draft stock. Most starters on offense are back on the line, and half of the returning starters are also on the line. Overall, it's expected that the Seminoles will form a strong team. Non-conference games are not as strong as last season but has a road game against Notre Dame. The conference games are quite in their favor, with Clemson at home, not playing NC State, Louisville and VT and only having Miami on the road. This should all help to push the team into the top 2, but I doubt they will stay unbeaten this season.

Dabo Swinney had so far 15 full seasons with Clemson and last year was his worst since 2010 with 9-4. He seems to avoid the portal and stays on the 'old' path to build the team mainly by recruiting and his team is loaded. A returning QB and RB plus 4 of 5 starters on the line should bring stability into the offense mix. But the offense was not the best part of the team last year, so they need to improve. The defense did lose almost every starter, but according to the press the unit will be very strong and will carry the team. Their non-conference games feature as season opener Georgia, the rest will be much weaker. The conference schedule does feature several tougher teams, so overall the team plays a much tougher season than Florida State, so I think the team will likely make it to top 2 but will lose 2 to 3 games.

The next 2 teams are very close, but I go with Miami (FL), since they have in times of transfer portal a better name and will likely land better talents by that. Mario Cristobal is in his 3rd season as HC of the Hurricanes and did bring the team from 5 wins in his 1st season to 7 last year. The team went to a bowl, but lost that one, so overall his 2nd season is widespread named a disappointment. The talent level is pointing upwards, by transfers and recruiting, the hope is of course, that the win total will also increase. The team needs to find a new starter at QB out of a pool of transfers. That guy will have a good WR group to throw to, and a very good line, which brings back 3 starters and is loaded with talent. The defense has a good anchor at the line with 2 good starters back, but the defense backfield lost 4 starters and has to be restaffed entirely. The team faces some tough games, including Florida as non-conference game (which marks the return of the so-called Florida Cup between Miami (FL), Florida and FSU, last played in 2019 and won at that time by Florida) as only threat there, but also in conference games FSU, VT and Louisville. In summery I think the team has the ability to get more wins than last season, but likely not enough to challenge the top 2 teams.

And basically, on the same level is NC State. Dave Doeren is in his 12th season with the team and did bring the team a period of strength and success. Out of those 11 seasons so far did the team have 9 winning season and 9 bowl trips, but only 3 wins there, the last in 2017. NC State was several times close to play for an ACC Championship, but did fall short, most of the time because of the Clemson dominance. Nevertheless was NC State a team many teams did not like to play against the past few seasons, because they never quit and were always close to upset the favorite. Their offense will be likely a good unit, if the transfer QB does deliver. Backfield and line are among the best, the line has even 4 returning starters. The defense was always a tough one here and this season the unit has to find 8 new starters. There are some concerns the incoming transfers and the backups might make the unit a bit weaker than in recent years, but the coordinator is a good one, so likely this will be done until season start or shortly after. Regarding the schedule is Tennessee in week 2 a very tough non-conference game, the rest of those type of games are quite easy. Inside the conference the have beside Clemson one of the easiest schedules of all ACC teams, I think. That means, the team might get some more wins than the others with tough schedule and might land close the top, even their strength might be a bit lower than direct competitors.

Jeff Brohm came in to Louisville last year and guided the team to the ACC Championship game, where they lost the game with 10 points. Not bad for a start. Chances are good the offense will be on the same level as last year, but that will depend on the transfer QB, who has some history with injuries. This might be a big gamble. The defense returns 7 starters and might be better than last season. The non-conference games are OK but features Notre Dame and Kentucky on the road each. Inside the conference they avoid almost every contender beside Miami (FL) and Clemson, so they might leapfrog even NC State.

Virginia Tech does close the field of teams which might reach for the top 2 spots and Brent Pry did turn the team around last season in his 2nd year, especially late in the season with 5 out of 7 games as wins, including a bowl win. Surprisingly the offense returns 11 starters, which should give the team an instant boost. Also 8 starters are back from last year’s defense, so this unit might also improve in a good way. The non-conference part of the schedule is quite weak, they have a good chance to win all 4 games. The rest feature as top teams only Clemson and Miami (FL), so also VT has the chance to finish quite high. Interesting is, that neither VT, Louisville nor NC State do play against each other, so if those 3 teams might end up close in terms of conference wins, the tiebreaker will be based on the results against other teams.

And here comes the 1st newcomer team of the conference with Rhett Lashlees 3rd season SMU. Last year the team did win 11 games, including the AAC Championship game, lost the bowl afterwards and left the AAC on a high note to the ACC. The level of play will be a bit tougher from now on, but the team is in good shape. It returns 14 starters of last season’s roster and has a good group of offense players back to score a lot of points. Only real part of the offense, which needs help, is the o-line, but transfers are destined to fill in. On defense the team had a huge turnaround compared to the 1st season last year and there is no sign the unit will take a dive backwards. The non-conference games are OK from my point of view, with BYU and TCU being the biggest threats. Inside the conference beside FSU and Louisville the 2nd part of the season is very manageable and might cash them in more than enough to get to a good bowl.

Mack Brown is in his 6th season of his 2nd period with North Carolina. He had guided the team to a bowl in every season but won only the 1st one. Last year the team did collapse in the 2nd half of the season by losing 5 of 7 with a 3-game losing streak at the end, including the bowl. The team needs to find a replacement for their star QB and 4 linemen, and of course the team did dig deep in the transfer portal to find the guys. At least they hope they did. The defense looks better and returns 7 starters but needs to improve from last season’s not quite OK performance. Mack Brown is experienced enough to get this done, but we might see again some unexpected losses as in the past few seasons. The schedule is quite soft, non-conference and conference, and the team has all the chances to cash in more wins than last year, if they come together and play as a unit.

As next team I have Georgia Tech. Brent Key became the interims HC of the team in 2022 and after a 4-4 result the full HC for 2023 and the team did have a 7-6 record, including a bowl win. For this season, his 2nd full one, it will be tough for him to get more win. The offense is almost intact, so that is fine. The defense has a new coordinator and just 4 returning starters, so solving last season bad performance will be based on backups and transfers and how the team will respond to the new coordinator. And a good defense will be the key to handle the quite brutal schedule. Non-conference games are highlighted by Notre Dame and Georgia, while the conference games do include FSU, Louisville, North Carolina, VT, Miami (FL) and NC State. THAT's a tough schedule for a mid-level team. Given the fact that the team did more or less overperform the past 2 seasons, they might win more than I think they will, but I doubt it will be much more than last season’s results.

The 1st new former PAC-12 team is California. Justin Wilcox is in his 8th season and his results inside the PAC-12 were mixed. In those 7 seasons the team went to 3 bowls and won just one in 2019. Good news is the team enters the ACC with the best results since 4 seasons (6-7) but has to adapt to the new conference and has to work with a new transfer QB and a new coordinator. The rest of the offense is quite OK still won’t be the best unit of the team. That will be the defense returning 8 starters and will likely play much better than last season’s bad performance. The non-conference games are quite easy, except Auburn. The conference matchups are tough, but not as tough as GTs mix of games, so the team might outperform the Yellow Jackets. I did just put them here, since I doubt the team will adjust that fast and I also expect the Jackets to upset some of the teams.

At Syracuse a new HC is there, Fran Brown. The former DB-coach of Georgia and several other teams has landed his 1st HC gig and could not wish for a bigger challenge. His predecessor had the team always on the edge of becoming a consistent winning team, but was unable to bring in stability. Last season the team finished 5-7 and the HC was axed. The offense will be refurbished, with most starters back on a bad line and a new QB out of the portal. The defense was also shuffled by transfer players, with a hope to change things for the better. Biggest asset of the team will be the schedule, which is quite weak on non-conference and does not feature FSU, Clemson and Louisville. IF the team finds together, they might skyrocket, but that's something which has to be reviewed later.

A big splash in the coaching market was made by Boston College, when they were forced to look for a new guy, once their former HC did decide end of January to become a NFL DC again. Bill O'Brien was selected as new HC late in that offseason, who was formerly the HC of Penn State and the Houston Texans. Last year he severed as OC for New England. For sure will O'Brien re-shuffle the team fast but might be too late to do so this season. The offense has a good mix of returning starters, including the QB and the defense needs a lot of work to overcome the bad performance of last year. They will not play Clemson, but beside that the schedule is quite brutal, so don't be surprised that the team will focus on building the team under the new HC and they might find their most wins late in the season when less tough teams are to be played. Not sure they will go to a bowl, likely not.

Pat Narduzzi is a no-bullshit-HC and in his 10th season with Pittsburgh, usually known as Pitt. Last season was their worst since ever under the coach with 3-9. In 2021 did the team win the conference. That's a fast decline. A lot of returning starters are here on offense, but since it was a bad offense last year, several transfers were also brought in to find the right mix. That included a QB battle ongoing. A new coordinator was also hired. The defense was also not the best unit under the coach last year and the defense front needs more or less a complete makeover. The team will earn some wins in non-conference games, I think, and faces a rough mix of mid-level and top-level teams inside the conference. If the units find back to their form of 2022 or earlier, they will for sure win more games than 2023, but I'm not sure on a bowl spot.

Another deep dive team last year was Wake Forest. The team went 4-8 after several good seasons prior to that (except maybe the 2020 season under COVID). Dave Clawson is in his 11th season and has to rework the roster, fast. The offense was bad last year, and several transfers are brought in to fix this, including several QBs. The defense is good at the line and the linebackers, but the backfield needs help. Like many low-level teams, the schedule is always a challenge. Non-conference might provide 2 to 3 wins this season, if they want to play, and the rest for an eventually bowl spot must come from the conference games, where they miss FSU. With Clawson you never know, but the outlook does not look too good this season.

Right now, I do pity the Duke fans, since they lost one of their best coaches they had (but he had only 2 seasons, so this is only a small sample for such a judgment) to Texas A&M and got Manny Diaz as his replacement. Diaz is the former HC of Miami (FL) and was fired after 3 seasons, because the team did not perform as they wanted. 21-15 is not bad, but his predecessor did win 5 more games in the same period of time and overall does the program of Miami wish for MUCH more. After the HC position did Diaz serve as DC of Penn State and has now the tough job to keep the Blue Devils on the level his 2 predecessors did bring the team to. The roster needs help, the amount of returning starters is quite low. Especially the o-line needs help, and the d-line is not much better. The non-conference schedule is weak, so they might get wins here. The conference period is tough, but they avoid Clemson and Louisville. My prediction is the team will need at least a season to adjust and will not go to a bowl this year. I have doubts regarding the HC, but of course he has all the chances to prove me and all other doubters, including the Duke fans, wrong.

Tony Elliott has a bad position as HC of Virginia. The shootings in 2022 with the canceled games were tough, the 2023 season was also a bad one. In his 3rd season I doubt he is under much pressure, but of course everyone would love to see more wins than 3 (2022 and 2023, each). The good news is offense and defense do signal at least small improvements. The defense does actually return 8 starters and might help to secure more wins. Notre Dame will be too tough, I think, but the rest of the non-conference games are at least not for sure lost on paper already. The conference games are not really in their favor, but do have opportunities, like BC at home. I personally doubt a lot more wins, but it will depend on those improvements.

As last team I have Stanford, the 2nd new team from the PAC-12. Troy Taylor is in his 2nd season and did rework the Cardinals last year, which resulted in a 3-9 record. It will likely depend heavily on the development of the o-line, which did underperform last year. If the QB gets more time and protection, the offense might click very well. The defense, which was really bad last year, brings back 8 starters and the hope is of course that they did grow and become better. TCU and Notre Dame as non-conference games are tough, the conference mix feature tough and weak ones. The goal is a bowl spot, but not many do believe the team will make the transition to the ACC and the rebuilding that fast.

Bottom line is, the ACC will have a hard time to bring in 2 teams into the playoffs and also will not That is my prediction. The champion is save, but beside that I think the conference will do their best to stay out of the top 12 rankings by winning and losing games the favorites shouldn't have won or lost. I think the race inside the conference will be interesting to see.

Next preview then the BIG-12.

'Til next time
Jack6 on BLOCK OF GRANITE

Tags: Block of Granite, News