2024-08-13 11:39

Believe it or not, but in roughly 2 weeks, the 1st few games will be played.

That means I have to post more often the previews or some of them will be part of the weekly previews.

Well, I did not plan to do this on a weekly basis and did not calculate the weeks backward, I did just start and came to the conclusion I have to split this, to avoid gigantic posts.

And it seems I did again boost the lines on each team, which scares me a bit. I have to think about this for next season maybe, because this takes longer and longer and I'm not sure it really helps. Those who are familiar with college football will get a lot of information they might already have and those not familiar will get likely information they don't really need or want.

Regardless, I will continue with the previews as I started them for this season and the next conference is the ...


BIG-12

This season the BIG-12 looks in some way DONE, in the meaning of the conference has all the pieces at the right place, all the changes are made and for the upcoming seasons, the conference seems to be stable.

With the PAC-12-changes still looming, I might be too confident, but in a realistic way, I don't think that anything the PAC-12 will do, will have an impact on the BIG-12.

If the 2 remaining PAC-12-teams would have been interesting for the BIG-12, they would have been part of the package, which left the PAC-12 and went to the BIG-12. So, from this side, DONE.

If the PAC-12 would be more interesting than the BIG-12, why did so many teams leave the conference? I don't think any of the teams inside the BIG-12 can be or will be brought to the almost-defunct-PAC-12. So, from this side also, DONE.

And whichever team might switch to the PAC-12 will likely be from a group of 5 conference and that will not touch the BIG-12.

On the other hand, it seems the SEC and the BIG10 are more or less done with their expansion, so likely no team from the BIG-12 will leave in the next few seasons also. Hence it seems the BIG-12 is likely stable and that means the teams it now has will have to adjust and we will likely see a very open conference regarding the championship race.

With the 2 major dominating teams left to the SEC, Texas and Oklahoma, the conference lost the 2 teams which did cash in the championships in record numbers, since it played the 1st season in 1996. And by far was Oklahoma the team to beat with 14 championships (one shared in 2012) and Texas had 4. The next in line is ironically Baylor with 3 championships (one shared in 2014). The irony is, Baylor was for a very long time a very bad team, so seeing them right now as record holder of all current members is a bit strange.

The conference did gain this season 4 teams, all from the PAC-12, with Colorado returning They left the BIG-12 after the 2010 season. Plus, incoming are Arizona, Arizona State and Utah. That means in total did the conference gain 2 teams compared to last season and does now have 16 teams, which is a number nobody did see, when the conference did drop to 10 after 2010, when Colorado and Nebraska did leave. A season later did they lose Missouri and Texas A&M but compensated it by adding West Virginia and TCU. There were several rumors the conference would try to add teams, but until 2022 it did stay at 10, unable to play a championship game by NCAA rules until 2017. In 2023 the changes came in in massive waves. With BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF joining and Oklahoma and Texas announcing their future departure, the PAC-12 did implode almost entirely, and the BIG-12 did get a big piece of that, too for 2024, while Texas and Oklahoma left for good to the SEC.

Of all those 16 teams, roughly half of them will be contenders or at least close to the contenders. And the funny part for the future is, that some of the teams at the bottom of the conference pre-season-poll, like Texas-Tech and Cincinnati are on top of the recruiting class list. That means, the power of strength might shift in the next few seasons also big time and the fans might see a very open BIG-12 for seasons. How good the teams will be nationally is a different thing, but inside the conference the competition won't be boring.

This season the 2 biggest favorites for the Championship game are incoming Utah and Kansas State. But right behind them will be Oklahoma State, Kansas, Arizona and Iowa State and don't underestimate West Virginia, UCF, Texas Tech, TCU and Colorado. As said the field is wide open and it's very likely that injuries, the scheduling and luck will have a huge impact on the top 2 spots for a championship game matchup. With the playoff format expanded to 12 teams the BIG-12 Champ will be very likely part of the mix, but don't expect too many additional teams inside the playoff field from the BIG-12. Not this season.

We start with Utah, being one of the incoming teams from the PAC-12. The team is under guidance of Kyle Whittingham in his 20th season. He did win (almost) everything with the team. In 2008 the team did finish after an unbeaten season #2 in the main polls, but 1 poll did actually name them #1, which made them national champion, even the university did not claim that title. Beside that strange college football typical thing, he won the Mountain West conference once (2008) and the PAC-12 even twice (2021 and 2022). The star QB is back from an injury, which did prevent last season the return to a championship game, and also the receiving squad is back on track. The line will be one of the best of the BIG-12 with 3 returning starters. And the Utah defense was always the heart of the team and will again be very good, with 8 returning starters. The BIG-12 plays only 3 non-conference games and thanks to the transition of the team it does actually feature Baylor, which will not count towards the BIG-12 standings. The other non-conference games are all in Utahs favor. Inside the conference the team does miss Kansas State and Kansas, but has to travel to OSU and Colorado, which might be tough. In total the team is setup to take the BIG-12 by storm, but I doubt an unbeaten season, even they have the tools to do so.

Next in line from my point of view is Kansas State. The team was very close to get back to the championship game last year by losing several games by just a score or less. Chris Klieman is in his 6th season with the team and won the conference in 2022 and has all the tools to do so this year again. The QB did play last season a bit and played well and is destined to become the starter now that last year’s starter did transfer to Ohio State. The only real concern is the line with just 2 starters back. The defense looks solid with 7 starters returning and the team will play a quite easy schedule as non-conference games, including Arizona, which will also not count towards the BIG-12 standings. Inside the conference they do miss Utah and play OSU at home as also Kansas. The team will play for the top 2 spot and the coach did so far never let the team give up, so I expect the team to be a contender, even they might not be as tough as in recent years.

Mike Gundy is in his 20th season with the Oklahoma State Cowboys and almost every season something happens, at least for me, which was not expected. Last year the team did really start bad, 2-2, including a loss against South Alabama. The team did look like they would barely make it to a bowl, if ever. But then the team did win 5 in a row, including the rivalry game against Oklahoma, and made it after a 9-3 regular season to the championship game, got beaten by Texas there and won in the Texas Bowl against Texas A&M. I did not expect such a season. Now the team brings back the most starters of all teams inside the BIG-12, 20 people. No wonder they are in the contender mix. The offense looks great, except maybe the QB, who had a lot of turnovers last year. But with the year experience, this might change. The defense was last season not really good, and the experience hope does fit perfectly on almost the whole unit. The non-conference schedule is tough, including last season’s FCS-Champion, the conference schedule is also quite tough and features almost every contenting team inside the BIG-12, so either they survive this list with a good record and they are true contenders, or they will drown in several losses and will have to settle for a mid-level finish.

Kansas is on a hot phase right now, which nobody did foresee when Lance Leipold was hired 3+ seasons ago. Now in his 4th season with the team, the Jayhawks are coming of their best season since 2007 (in which they did share a division title, but did not go to the championship game and finished with 12 wins) and had 9 wins last year, including a bowl win. They lost their coordinator to Penn State, so it will be open, whether the new guy can get the best out of a potent offense, which only weakness eventually is a line, which has to be reloaded with some transfers and returning players from injury. The defense made good improvements over the past few seasons, and it is open, whether they can improve further. The players are there, but I guess the team will not make big improvements compared to last season here. Whether that will be enough is to be seen. The non-conference schedule is OK, if not even weak, the conference games are compared to other teams also quite easy, so if the team makes just a few steps further, they might end up higher than my predicted 4th place here.

Arizona made a big splash into the coaches’ pool when they hired Brent Brennan away from San Jose State (won the Mountain West twice) and added former Syracuse HC Dino Babers as OC. The team had a major season last year and it seems the program does not want the team to slip back to mid-level to low-level under the new HC. Whether that will happen or not is open, but chances are high the team will perform well with one of the top QB-WR combos and a line bringing back 3 starters on offense. The defense has just 5 returning starters and a new coordinator, so it will depend on how the unit with the starters, backups and transfers will react on the new DC and execute. The good thing for Arizona is, they play Kansas State as non-conference game. The bad news is, they play Utah on the road. Beside that the schedule is quite manageable, so it could be the team will be in the mix for the top 2 spots in November.

Everyone did expect another mid-level to even a low-level season by West Virginia last year, but Neal Brown did coach the team to their best season under his reign so far with 9 wins, including a bowl win. Now in his 6th season he cannot expect to win by surprises, but he might not need to, since the offense will be one of the best inside the BIG-12 with a very good QB back, 4 of 5 WR also back and 3 guys in the line are also returning. The defense needed improvement to last season and the team did hit the portal hard to find new people. It will be interesting to see, how the team will perform, but chances are good team will be challenging all the teams I did preview so far for the top 2 spots. Penn State is the toughest team as non-conference and they play them on day 1, while they avoid Utah in conference plays, but beside that, do play most of the contenders.

Matt Campbell does a really solid job at Iowa State and has the team always competing. What his teams lacks most of the time is consistency, which did made more than once the difference between a great season and a good season. In 2020 did the team play for a championship but lost to Oklahoma in the championship game. Since then, the team did made it to a bowl in 2 of 3 seasons, but lost both, the last 2023. But 2024 looks like a cash-in season with almost the complete offense, including 5 starters on the line, returning. And also 9 starters do return on defense, so experience will be big this year. A tough non-conference season start will be a great test, but might cost them wins, while facing many of the already previewed teams, including Utah and KSU, will test their character. IF the team can survive this season as contender, they will be a very tough team. But I have doubts and expect some unexpected losses.

In 2022 did TCU had a great season, but in 2023 the team did fall hard and did not even go to a bowl game. Sonny Dykes is in his 3rd season and the team might skyrocket again, like 2022, or they will again play mid-level at best. Hard to say. Their offense has some good players but lacks a solid offense line on paper. The defense was a mess last year and got a new coordinator and a lot of new blood by the transfer portal. Maybe the missing pieces are there to improve from last season’s bad performance, maybe not. The non-conference games are quite weak, but the SMU game has potential, since it is Dykes former team, and they are expected to be quite good this season. Inside the conference are a lot of contenders on the list, except Kansas State. It will not help, TCU needs to improve on both sides to get back to the top, or they will maybe not even go to bowl again.

Expectations were quite high last season for Joey McGuire and his Texas Tech Raiders. But that 2nd season went off rail already in the first few weeks of the season, when the team lost 3 of 4 games and all with 8 points of less. But the team did also lose several games later, they shouldn't have lost, resulting in a 7-6 season, including a bowl win, but 1 win less than 2022. This season, the HCs 3rd season, the team does not look good, returning only 8 starters, but that includes the QB. The coaching staff did try to compensate with transfers and of course with the talent pool of the recruits of 2022, 2023 and 2024. Especially this off season it seems the Red Raiders did gain from the loss of Texas and Oklahoma and cashed in the best recruiting class ranking of all teams of the BIG-12. Hence, Texas Tech might not play on top this season, but in the next 2 season the results should turn upwards in the win column. The good news is, the non-conference games are quite easy, and the conference schedule is also quite easy. That means, the team might get more wins than their strength might have given them on a tougher schedule. The Red Raiders might surprise us this season.

UCF, University of Central Florida, came last season to the BIG-12 and was the only incoming team, which won 6 games and went to a bowl. They lost that bowl game, but overall, the team had the best start of all those new teams. Gus Malzahn is in his 4th season with the team, and it seems the team is still in adjustment mode. They bring back 9 starters and added several transfers to get the team into the right direction. The offense will be led by a transfer QB, and the rest will be a mix of transfers, starters and backups. The key will be, whether they do fit all well to the system, or not. All expectations are, they do, and the offense will be one of the most productive of the conference. The defense was bad last season and changed the coordinator. The d-line looks solid, the rest is work in progress with a lot of hope that the incoming players will fit, and the new coordinator will make them click. Florida as non-conference game mid-season is a tough one, the rest of the non-conference games should be wins. They play a quite mixed BIG-12 schedule, with Utah as season finale at home. If the team can keep in the race, that game will likely be a do-or-die-type of game.

When Deion Sanders took over Colorado, the chatter was nationwide. He came in as winning coach on FCS level, and many did hope the Buffaloes would just sweep the PAC-12. When the team started 3-0 the eyes did pop open and the team was ranked at #18. But the team lost 2 in a row, won that 4th win a week later and finished the season with 6 losses, 4 of those with a score or less. No wonder season, but a change of culture with a record of 4-8 and as it seems a change in personal. Sanders did hit the portal hard and brought in a lot of players, but many did also leave. It is expected that the offense guided by his son as QB will be one of the most explosive ones in the BIG-12, but nobody is willing to bet on the defense, which got a new coordinator and a lot of new players. Likely the team will be better than last season, but that's not that hard, since the unit was very bad. Non-conference games are mixed, but I think they can win them, the conference games are one of the toughest mixes you can get. The team can make it to a bowl this season, if the new players do fit in.

In 2021 did Baylor win the BIG-12 but went 6-7 a year afterwards and last season 3-9. No wonder Dave Aranda is feeling some pressure. He did change the OC and that guy will have a lot of work to do. A new QB was brought in via portal, the WRs and RBs are returners of that bad offense of last year, but likely the best options for the backfield and the o-line needs a complete reset, since last season it was awful. Sometimes coordinators can do wonders, but I doubt a very fast change here. The defense was also not very good but brings back 7 starters. Main concern is the d-line, which has to be found until season start. The team play Utah as non-conference game and also the Air Force game will be challenging. Inside the conference the team will have a lot of opportunities to show their possible improvements, when they play in almost every game as underdog. There are chatters, that Aranda is on a hot seat. Not sure what he needs to get the confidence of the program back, but I guess a bowl spot would help. THAT will be a tough challenge.

Baylor was the 1st team on this list, which is very likely NOT in the mix for the top 2 seats and from here onward, the teams will get worse and will fight for a bowl spot. Next in line is Arizona State with Kenny Dillingham in his 2nd season. The debut in the desert was 3-9, fueled by a lot of roster changes and a bowl ban self-inflicted prior 2023, because of looming NCAA sanctions caused by recruiting violations in 2020. Now the team has moved from the PAC-12 to the BIG-12 and has to adjust. The OC was switched, the makeover continued and if the team is lucky and the dust of all the incoming and outgoing players is set, the team might end up with a decent offense. As far as I could find, nobody expects a great one, but a solid one. The defense returns just 3 starters and is also bound to be filled up by transfers and backups. Also, the word is here, it will be an upgrade to last season. The non-conference schedule is quite rough, the conference schedule also, so I have problems seeing the team getting enough wins to get to a bowl. But they can prove us all wrong and I think we will see improvements, just not that much.

Something went wrong with BYU last year under Kalani Sitake. He is here since 2016 and had all winning seasons, except 2017. Then they switched to the BIG-12 and the team did dive to 5-7, and worse they did only win 2 games within the conference and had 5 losses in a row at the end of the season. Sure, no longer playing as Indy did result eventually in a tougher schedule, but BYU did not often shy away from tough matchups. Now in the 9th season with Sitake, the team has to get the things upward. The QB battle is still open, the rest of the backfield looks solid, but the line, even with 3 starters back, needs to improve from last season’s performance. The defense missed last season the push you need to win games and was bad against the run and did not produce enough pressure to challenge the opposing QBs. You would expect to get some decent linemen, but right now it seems the team hopes to develop some from the talent it has. Some transfers came in to help the backfield. The non-conference games are a challenge, except the FCS team, and as weak team, of course the conference games will be a challenge almost every gameday. I'm not very confident BYU gets more wins than last season.

Scott Satterfield is in his 2nd season with Cincinnati and so far, the team does not look like the brand he took over. The coach prior to him did win the AAC twice, shortly before he left and did still record 9 wins, in the season he was hired from a better paying team. Then Satterfield came in from Louisville and ran it to the ground last year with 3 wins. He can hope that his makeover of transfers last year and this year will at least boost the wins. Good news is the line returns all starters and some of the transfer are marked as 'talented' on offense. The defense needs more improvement and also here the transfers are regarded well, so maybe the new DC can fix the issues. The non-conference games could provide even 3 wins, if the teams click, the conference games do not feature Utah and Kansas, so the team does not have to play all tough cookies. A bowl might be in the mix, if they can win the non-conference games.

And Houston under new HC Willie Fritz, who made Tulane competitive after 6 seasons, which was a great piece of work. After a total of 8 seasons Fritz was hired to elevate Houston back from the abyss, which will likely take also several seasons. The offense is work in progress with an injured QB and a to-be-rebuilded-o-line. The defense is also a big piece of work with just 2 returning starters and usually in the 1st season the incoming players are not enough to compensate all needed changes. With Oklahoma the team does face a very tough team as non-conference opponent, the rest is likely a win. Inside the conference they miss Utah and OSU, so they won't face all the tougher team, but as weaker team, they will be the underdog in almost every game. Bad luck for them, they face Cincinnati on the road.

The BIG-12 is likely in year one of the rebuild/recharge the conference needed and beside the fact that Oklahoma and Texas did bring in attention, the parity of team strength is now greater than in the past 20+ seasons. I hope the teams will have a great season; national wide it will be likely just the champion who will get a shot at the national championship in the playoffs.

Only 2 conferences left to preview. Next in line will be a big one with the expanded BIG10

'Til next time
Jack6 on BLOCK OF GRANITE

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