2024-08-19 09:37

The PRE-SEASON TOP 25 were published and that means that the press and the coaches did sort the 25 teams on a list each, they think are likely the strongest. Those lists are then accumulated and then sorted based on the results.

There is a lot of hope, fear and guessing on those rankings in pre-season. I did in the past some articles on how important these lists are and how they influence the season. Don't read too much into the rankings I will show you a bit later, but it gives a good overview on how the people think about the teams and conferences and with the expanded playoffs in mind you also get a glimpse of how the people do think teams and conferences will send teams into the mix for the playoffs.

First, the rankings. I will only show you the AP polls, the coaches’ poll is almost identical, with a few teams a spot or two sorted higher or lower, but surprisingly no big abbreviations.

At #1 is listed Georgia, #2 is Ohio State, #3 Oregon and #4 Texas. That's quite interesting, since it does feature 2 teams, which did switch the conference and they did already get on the very top level of their new conferences. Oregon did at least surprise me the most ranked that high, but I did not do the BIG10 preview now (just a few more line on the intro and we will dive into it), so maybe my gut feeling is not good enough. Texas also quite surprising with other SEC teams not in front of them.

But they are coming right behind them, at #5 Alabama, #6 Ole Miss, at #7 surprisingly Notre Dame (which I think is way overrated) and at #8 Penn State. That means of those top 8 teams so far, we have 4 SEC teams, 3 BIG10 and 1 Indy. You see where this is going?

With #9 we have Michigan, #10 Florida State, at #11 Missouri and #12 Utah. Now we have 5 SEC teams in the TOP12, 4 BIG10 teams, 1 Indy, 1 ACC and 1 BIG-12. For the playoffs that's NOT enough, since assuming the conference champs would be out of those groups, we miss the 5th conference champion.

The funny part right now is, NO team of the TOP25 Pre-Season-Polls does fit that bill. We have #13 LSU, #14 Clemson, #15 Tennessee, #16 Oklahoma, #17 Oklahoma State, #18 Kansas State, #19 Miami, #20 Texas A&M, #21 Arizona, #22 Kansas, #23 USC, #24 NC State and #25 is Iowa. No group of 5 team in this list.

Since the list is an accumulation of all the individual lists, there are more teams, which did get points from some people and we find the highest group of 5 team at #28 Boise State followed by #31 Liberty, at #34 Memphis. One of those would be, in case of a championship, inside the playoff list.

Now the fun part, the list will be done after every gameday and there will be of course upsets and expected wins and for sure the list at the end of the season will look different. Why this is done every season is for me a mystery. But it's the process. Usually the miss-conceptions done for pre-season are wiped out after roughly 4-6 weeks. Then the teams did have their wins and more important their losses and the strength of the teams is adjusted in the head of the people. After that the list becomes more stable and reflect the performance until then, combined with a little bit of hope and expectations.

Unfortune, at least for me, is, they do not play the season with their expectations through in their head and then put in the list. They just take what happened and then we have suddenly #3 vs #4 in a conference game and afterward the loser drops a few spots, and the winner rises a bit or nothing.

The TOP list will be much more interesting this season, since the playoff spots are easier to get, so I will keep you updated from time to time.

Let's get to the next conference preview, the ....

BIG10

This season the BIG10 made their biggest change since seasons, adding 4 teams from the PAC-12, UCLA, USC, Oregon and Washington, and did, because of the extension to 18 teams, ditch the division model and changed to a one conference model, most conference did implement so far. That has the benefit, that the BIG10 Championship game won't be the dull game it was the past 12 years, and we can finally have the game between the best 2 teams of the season, regardless of who they are. Side fact is, the last time that ‘other’ division team did claim a title was 2012 with Wisconsin, since then it was always the East division to win the conference, even in 2013 it was still named 'Legend'. And granted, some of the games were close (2015, 2016, 2017), but even those were dull, from my point of view. With the 18 teams the BIG10 is right now the biggest conference in FBS.

The BIG10 is so far done with changes, the only addition I could think of would be Notre Dame, but that is something which is right now impossible and is chatted over since ages.

So, 18 teams and many of those will be in the mix for the BIG10 Championship game and also for a playoff spot.

Last season did Michigan get finally what they were looking for, when they did hire Jim Harbaugh in 2015, a National Championship. Prior to that the team did win the rivalry game against Ohio State, the division and the conference. That highlight season did end the Jim Harbaugh reign in Ann Arbor. On the other division did Iowa somehow win the division, while fielding one of the worst offense the team had in seasons, naturally then losing against Michigan in the Championship game without scoring a single point.

This season we will see a different conference and a different championship game, for sure.

After some readings, it seems Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan and Penn State are in different sorting the top 4 teams expected to play for the 2 spots in the Championship game. But Iowa and USC are close behind and might have a say or two regarding the outcome. Biggest surprise for me was, that Washington, last season PAC-12 champ and National Championship game losing team, is only regarded as mid-level-team, at best.

We start with Ohio State, which can at least on paper sigh a bit, since their rival was forced to change the HC and the Buckeyes can eventually get back on top of the BIG10. The past 3 seasons did Michigan win the rivalry, the division and the conference, all because in THE GAME Michigan won 3 in a row, ending a OSU winning streak of 8 seasons. Ryan Day is in his 6th season with the team and after winning the conference in his 1st 2 seasons the results were based on Ohio State standards mixed. On top to 3 times not winning THE GAME, the division (OK, in 2021 a share) and the conference did the team also lose in the last 2 bowls. So, the rival has a new HC with likely some changes and on top did the HC of the Buckeyes try to get the team back into the TOP. The offense got several options on QB, but likely the star QB transfer from Kansas State will try to spread the ball upon one of the best backfields of the nation. The o-line returns 4 starters and will be also top level. The defense returns 9 starters and added a high-profile player on top to field one of the best defenses this season. On paper the team looks primed to get things done, so the non-conference period will be a joke and the conference games do feature more or less the usual mix of competitive and non-competitive teams. Biggest threat this season are likely Oregon and Penn State on the road each, but also Iowa and Michigan at home. Expectations are they will end the season near perfection if not perfect.

A bit surprising for me is Oregon regarded very high this season. The surprise is not that Oregon does field a good team, more that they are ranked ahead of Michigan and Penn State. Dan Lanning is in his 3rd season with the team and had the team last year in the PAC-12 Championship game, losing to Washington by just 3 points. They then won big time against Liberty in an idiotic bowl matchup and finished 12-2. The team did lose their starting QB to the NFL, but gained a QB from Oklahoma, who is expected to start instantly. The Ducks feature also a very good WR group and elite RBs and with the help of a very good o-line featuring 3 returning starters, the offense will be likely explosive. The defense is more concerning, bringing back only 4 starters, but based on all information, the transfers are very good, and the backups will fill the holes also. It will be interesting to see, how they will fair against BIG10 teams day in and day out. The non-conference games are likely a bit more challenging than the OSU schedule, but Boise State is not on that level and Oregon State can only bring in the rivalry hate at home. Oregon misses Penn State as opponent on the conference schedule, but beside that plays most contenders. Ohio State at home will be the breaking point.

Here I get uncertain, but I did stick with talent and skills shown so far. It's hard to believe the reigning national champion would sink like a stone, but the switch from Jim Harbaugh to Sherrone Moore was big time, even the program wanted to avoid it. Sherrone Moore had served as interims coach last season during Harbaughs suspensions, including THE GAME against Ohio State and he did great, win it all and carried the team to the conference finale, where the regular HC did return, and the rest is history. When the seat became vacant, the program did not search for long and promoted the OC to HC. But the roster of Michigan was on a climax anyway, so many starters went off the school and left the team with limited returning starters. The QB, RB, 1st WR, all linemen on offense? Gone. Hence the offense will be rebuilt from inside the talent the team has for sure. How good it will be is open. The defense will likely be much better than the offense with several great incoming transfers and some returning starters with high potential draft caliber. How good the team really will be, will be transparent when they play Texas in week two. If they have trouble playing the other 2 non-conference games, the program will take a deep dive. But all expect a stellar season, which will likely be defined in November at home against Oregon and last gameday on the road against Ohio State. I might give the HC a lot of credit here up front, but he was really impressive last season, so maybe the team can really land in some of the top spots.

The reason why I did not put Penn State at the third place is, that James Franklin has a good team, but he changed all coordinators and especially on offense there are a lot of question marks regarding the level of playing. The QB was OK, but struggled in big games, the WR squad is not the best and only the RBs are among the best. The new OC did spark a tremendous offense at Kansas, so maybe he will do the same here. The defense is likely in much better shape, with several great returning players and the coordinator being the former Indiana HC. They play West Virginia on day 1, which will be interesting, the rest of the non-conference games are cupcake-games. Inside the conference the success depends on the high-profile games against USC in October and Ohio State beginning of November. They avoid most of the high-level contenders, which might help the team to gain some spots higher than they would with a tougher schedule. But keep in mind, Penn State had also often some sort of meltdown during the season, which prevented them often of title hopes.

Let's face it, USC has not won 2 National Championships in the last 2 seasons the team had deserved, based on fans expectations. Lincoln Riley came in from Oklahoma 2022 and the expectations couldn't have been much higher. They were close to win the PAC-12 in 2022, but Utah did deny that big time and last season the team was just not good enough to stay in the competition for a spot in the championship game, went only to a bowl and won at least that game. This season, in Rileys 3rd one, the team has to face a new conference and a lot of more competition. The offense lost their star QB to the NFL and the backups did prove good in the bowl, but whether he can be good all season is to be proven. The rest of the offense is work in progress with plenty of talent. Riley has a good hand with offense usually, so that might be OK. The defense needed an overhaul, and a new DC was hired. A lot of talent also on that side of the ball and the hope is, that the DC, who was a good one at UCLA, will put the unit together for a major improvement. Playing LSU at season start will be a big DAMN eventually and Notre Dame at season finale is also a big task. Inside the conference they avoid Ohio State and Oregon, so maybe they can increase the win total, but I doubt they will leapfrog the top 4 previews teams.

Kirk Ferentz is in his 26th season with Iowa and there is not much you can be angry about his coaching style, except that the teams seem to lack often that final punch. Let's look into this; he won the conference twice (2002 and 2004) and won the division 3 times (2015, 2021 and 2023), had a winning season since 2013, but his team very often is not really a scoring machine and even though that is not needed, if the defense keep the opponent in check, they needed and need to be better, since Michigan and Ohio State did steamroll them any time and any place. Last season was a big downer, even the team did reach the conference championship game, because they had NOTHING on offense. NOTHING. A new coordinator was hired to fix this (again) and he will have to fix the line and find a solid QB. Right now, there are still question marks here. The only thing, which will keep them in the games (again) will be the defense, returning 8 starters. Talent is good, likely the unit will be top level. Non-conference games are fine, but maybe the game against Iowa State will be too tough this season. Inside the conference the team benefits from a very easy schedule, only featuring Ohio State as top team. They might again win more than they deserve, but I doubt a trip to the Championship game.

Nebraska did hire Matt Rhule, the former Baylor and Carolina Panthers HC, last season and he did gain a win, compared to the last season of his predecessor. But that is not enough of course. Now in his 2nd season, the offense has likely a good QB (a freshman) and good backfield and a line which became better and better and returns 3 starters. The defense is expected to be even better than last season, where that unit did keep them in many games. The non-conference games are quite weak, even you never know what Colorado will bring at this rivalry game. And inside the conference the team does avoid also a lot of contenders, so chances are high, the team will rise to bowl eligibility and maybe beyond.

Luke Fickell came to Wisconsin last year and all wanted a big winning season (including me), but the team did struggle a bit, went to a bowl only and lost that, too. Now in his 2nd season, the team has still not really a reliable offense on paper and the defense lacks depth on the d-line. With that units the HC will do his best and I'm sure the team will get better, but we still have to wait for that breakout season, I think. They play Alabama end of September and inside the conference they have Oregon, Penn State, Iowa and USC, so a quite tough setup. Bottom line is, we might see a team, which does improve, but maybe not big time in the win column.

We are at the half of the conference and here I have Rutgers. Greg Schiano is in his 5th season of his 2nd coming with the Knights and had so far last year the best results since he took over again. The team went to a bowl and won to finish 7-6. The team has 6 starters back on offense and defense each and will be in quite good shape. On offense the line will be the best, the QB is a project to be found. The defense is solid and should be on the same level as last year, if not better. The non-conference games are weak, just VT might be a challenge and inside the conference the miss almost every contender and have one of the weakest, if not THE weakest, schedule of all teams. That should help to increase the win column a but, right? Key games will be against Nebraska on the road and Wisconsin at home, all beginning of October.

The big surprise in the preview readings was, that Washington is not put into a higher place than this in almost every preview. Why? Last season they played for a national championship (and lost) but that did cost them their HC (went to Alabama) and most of their starters (many went to the NFL) so Jedd Fisch as new HC, last season the HC of Arizona, has only 2 starters left to play with. Transfers and backups do fill in and have to be united on both sides of the ball. The team faces a major rebuilding, but has some time to find the mojo, with a mixed non-conference schedule, highlighted by the rivalry game against Washington State, and a conference game period featuring the 1st real challenge Beginning of October against Michigan. The remaining games are quite tough, so expectations are, either the team does play excellent and better than expected or they will lose several of the last few games and might even miss a bowl.

Mike Locksley has brought Maryland to a very good level, but this season, his 6th, the offense is in full rebuilding mode. The QB went to the NFL and a new one has to emerge from the list of transfers and backups. The line will be completely new. Only the backfield is good and will help. The defense line looks good, the backfield looks like it needs help. The good news is the non-conference games are almost as easy as you can get them. And inside the conference they avoid Michigan and Ohio State. They will likely get back to a bowl, but how far they will come inside the conference will be likely determined in the games against USC, Iowa and Penn State.

In Minnesota the expectations should be high this season. P.J. Fleck is in his 8th season and had the team winning 4 of those so far. Last season the team went 6-7 including a bowl win, and of that not so good offense are 4 starters in the line back, with the hope that they become better this year. A transfer QB from the FCS is destined to lead the team. On defense 8 starters are back and also here the hope is there, the team becomes better than last mid-level to low-level performance. The DC of last year left the team, so a new guy will have to work with the group to improve the results. Beside North Carolina the non-conference games are a walk in the park, but inside the conference they face many tough teams, but also some of the expected low-level teams. The tools are likely there to get a win more or so, but I doubt a skyrocket transformation to a contender.

The Michigan Spartans are in rebuilding mode, after they had to cut their relationship with the predecessor HC, because of sexual harassment accusations. The interim HC did not well, and a new HC was hired, Jonathan Smith, the past few seasons the HC of Oregon State. Smith had major success with the Beavers and hope is, he will do it a similar way with the Spartans. The good news is, Smith did bring with him a very good QB to spark the offense, but the o-line is a rebuilding project, and the backfield comes out of the talent pool. The defense lost some starters in the transfer portal, but still has 6 starters back. Combined the units will be a building mode throughout the season, so fast results won't be at hand, if no surprises happen. The non-conference games are OK, the BC game likely the toughest. The conference games are quite challenging with a lot of contenders on the list, but also a few of the teams I did not preview so far. The biggest asset MSU has this season is, they have a motivated coach and a deep talent pool.

Some developments are just strange, but someone had a reason for this, for sure. UCLA had Chip Kelly as HC the past 6 seasons and he was unable to replicate the success he had with Oregon at UCLA. The team peaked at 9 wins in 2022 and had 8 wins, including a bowl win in 2023. Way after the off season started, he decided to become the OC of Ohio State and left the team, which did invest a lot of money and faith into him the past 6 seasons with a limited option on how to proceed to find a new HC. The program did decide to promote the UCLA RB-coach DeShaun Foster (since 2017) to HC and let him clean up the mess produced by that late coach change and the switch to the BIG10. The offense is quite intact with a returning QB, some returning linemen and a capable backfield, but they have of course a new coordinator and a new HC to work with. The defense is a project with just a few returning players, so it won't be easy to get some wins. Playing LSU will not help, Hawaii on the road is also a lottery and Fresno State at season end is a strange selection for a non-conference game. The conference games list is quite mixed, so they might be able to get some wins here, if the new HC can build the team up. I doubt a bowl spot this season.

Illinois did fall back to 5 wins last season, so Bret Bielema will have work to do in his 4th season with the team. He has a solid offense to work with, since the QB is back, and the line returns 3 starters. They lost their #1 WR but have some capable backups. More concerning is the defense, which lost several key players to the portal and the rest wasn't that good anyway. The DBs were really bad last season, so the hope is, that with experience and some incoming transfers the defense will improve. But don't count on it. Kansas as non-conference game will be the peak here, inside the conference the team has to face Penn State, Michigan and Oregon, so the whole hope of the season to get back to a bowl is based on the rest of the schedule, which will be a lottery.

David Braun came into a bad situation last season at Northwestern and managed to get 8 wins, including a bowl win. Great work, which did earn him the drop of the interims HC tag and made him full HC. In season 2 the team now has to work further but did change the coordinators and has no QB identified. The backfield is fine, but right now the offense looks like a mess. The defense has 7 returning starters, so this will be much better, and the team will have to rely on that unit heavily. In better times, the non-conference schedule would be an easy walk in the park, still those games have to be won before they count. The conference schedule features Ohio State and Michigan, plus Iowa, which might become the low scoring game of the season. I hope the team does get back on track, but right now they look like a team which will a step backwards this season.

Curt Cignetti took over Indiana this offseason. The former James Madison HC did win many games with his former team and will try to implement a better Indiana team in the next few seasons. This year the team does rely heavily on transfers, including several from JMU, and the results will be interesting to see. The whole team gets a new look with those transfers, so hard to predict. The non-conference games are weak, but the conference games are perfectly on the level the team needs to either fall hard or get to a bowl. Except Michigan and Ohio State, they have in every game a chance, if the project transformation is successful. My guess is, growing pains and playing against several maturer teams will limit the results this season.

Ryan Walters is in his 2nd season with Purdue and so far, his results did match my expectations of last season. Their offense should be in better shape this season with QB, RB and 4 linemen returning. The defense has 5 returning starters and several transfers to compensate critical losses. Overall, the expectation is, that the defense minded HC will fix this unit fast and brings in some more wins, this season. But the non-conference games do feature Notre Dame at home and Oregon State on the road, which could lead to several losses. Inside the conference the schedule is mixed and there is room for some wins. But I doubt a massive rise.

The change of the structure will help the BIG10 to become more interesting and relevant and will help to bring more teams into the playoffs. Mid-term I think the BIG10 is well equipped to match the number of teams the SEC will likely bring into the playoffs, but that will depend on how the new teams will get their stuff together.

Only the SEC left for Week Zero, which I might get done until Friday.

'Til next time
Jack6 on BLOCK OF GRANITE

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