2024-08-22 07:56

Week Zero is closing in, but before I get to those few games igniting the 2024 season of college football, I have to do the final preview of the conference previews.

Southeastern Conference

The SEC got bigger and changed their look for season 2024. Oklahoma and Texas did arrive, a move which would have looked impossible a few seasons ago, because those 2 teams had an ego larger than Texas and more or less full control over the BIG-12. So, why give up that status and becoming one more or less equal member of the toughest conference in FBS?

It's obvious, money. There is a gap between the payout the SEC and also the BIG10 gets and what the BIG-12 and the ACC get. That gap is between 20 and 30 million per team.

The new 12-team-playoff format did on one hand allow other teams to play for a National Championship, which under the old conditions would never have had the chance to do so, on the other hand it will distribute even more money to the SEC and the BIG10 and the others will get less out of that playoff money.

Hence, the gap did even increase, and Texas and Oklahoma did at some point the math and did not see any other option than taking the team to the best paying conference, bringing in their names and tradition, plus their markets. The brand SEC did get bigger by the addition of those 2 teams, and we might see in the near feature some sort of rift between those 2 super-conference (SEC and BIG10) and the rest.

Think paying players, think NIL deals, think of all the money the teams will need to stay competitive and those teams from the super-conferences, especially the SEC teams, will set the gold standard, every other team has to measure themselves with. Most will fail and failing means in this context, they will not land the top prospects, they will not land the top coaches, they will not have the top facilities and will not generate that media attention those gold standard schools will generate. If you are a top player, dreaming of fame and fortune in college and the NFL, which university would you select, if almost every team would take you as addition?

OK, Texas and Oklahoma did join, making it a 16-teams-conference. They did also scrap the divisional approach and went with the one conference approach, which will lead to interesting SEC Championship game matchups.

The top 4 teams to watch will be Georgia, looking for another National Championship run, Texas, having likely a peak season under the latest HC, Ole Miss, being finally in position to play for the SEC Championship game and beyond and there is also Alabama, which has to adjust to a new HC after a very long period of success and dominance with the retiring HC they had. Right behind those teams are a mix of teams, which might have a say or two on those top 4 teams’ ambitions, like Missouri, LSU, Tennessee and Oklahoma. In total, half of the teams will have a big part in the season’s outcome, the rest is in rebuilding, reloading or self-pity mode.

We start with Georgia under Kirby Smart in his 9th seasons. Smart has won already the National Championship twice (2021 and 2022) and aims for another shot with a very loaded team. Biggest asset on offense is the return of their QB, who had already a great season last year and is expected to progress from those results upward. It's his senior season, so he should be motivated to play. The backfield is excellent, the WR corps great and the o-line one of the best. If you are one of the top dogs of the conference you can cherry pick the players, even on the transfer portal. The defense returns just 6 starters, but the talent pool is deep, and everyone expects them to be one of the top units of the FBS. The team plays Clemson on season opener, which will be a top game, the rest of the non-conference games are irrelevant. Inside the conference the team has to face Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss on the road, so IF this team really means business, after those games, we know for sure. There is no reason to believe the team will fall too hard, even if they would drop a game during the season, they are the best bet for a spot in the SEC Championship game and the winner of that will have a 1st round bye in the playoffs for sure.

Next up I take Texas. Steve Sarkisian did take the job at Texas in 2021 after some time as analyst at Alabama and since then had improved the Longhorns every year. They did win the BIG-12 last season as parting gift and are now in the mix for the SEC Championship game. The offense features a returning QB, a regrouped WR squad by transfer portal, some standout RBs (but a bit limited by injuries already) and 4 returning starting linemen. The defense had to get a bigger renovation, but Texas landed some transfers and has also a deep talent pool, so most areas should be covered big time. Only the DBs were last season a bit weak in performance, and they need to address this. The non-conference games are highlighted by a road game against Michigan at week 2. The conference schedule features a quite soft list of teams, with only Georgia, Oklahoma and Texas A&M being critical on 1st glance. Likely the Georgia game will tell the truth regarding their strength, but they still might end up top 2 because of the schedule.

Lane Kiffin did great at Ole Miss and is now in his 5th season. The team peaked last year with 11 wins, including a bowl win, and has all the tools to do so again. He has a returning QB behind a stellar o-line returning 3 starters and boosted by some transfers, has a deep WR group and as only setback lost their RB to Ohio State, but filled the spot by some additional transfers. The high-flying-offense should be in good shape this season. The defense was retooled last year and got some additional transfers again this season to finally having a good defense. If the unit clicks, the team might get to the Championship game. The non-conference games are on paper 4 wins, period. The rest features LSU on the road, Oklahoma and Georgia at home each, plus several games which are likely in their favor. Kiffin might elevate Ole Miss a bit further this season and they have, if all comes together and they miss the championship by an inch, STILL a very solid path to the playoffs, thanks to the 12 teams participating.

And we have Alabama under new management. I'm not sure how Kalen DeBoer feels right now, but on paper he should be dancing every day. Just 5 seasons ago he was named the HC of Fresno State, a solid group of 5 team, as his 1st FBS HC gig and after 2 seasons there and 2 seasons at Washington he is the HC of one of the most successful football teams of the past 2 decades and in history and earns double-digit millions as wage. Wow. But the task is huge. Nick Saban had transformed Alabama into a well-oiled machine and leaves giant shoes to fill. The offense, DeBoers special interest, will be good and returns a QB, RBs, a standout o-line, but a regrouping WR squad. Alabama has usual a deep talent pool, still the outgoing players (3 starters, 2 of then transferred) will be missed. The defense has a very deep talent pool but might suffer from Sabans departure and some talent loss in the off-season. The non-conference games are highlighted by the Wisconsin game in week 3, the rest are must-wins. The conference games are quite tough with Georgia, Tennessee, LSU, Missouri and Oklahoma as toughest cookies, but for Alabama this was in the past only the stepstones to the championship game and it will be interesting to see, how the new look Alabama team will fair.

Missouri did rise, since Eliah Drinkwitz did take over the helm. He is in his 5th season and the team did peak last year with 11 wins, including a bowl win. The offense has similar preconditions as the other teams above, so a returning QB, a stellar WR, some transfers as RBs and 3 returning starters on the line. The defense on the other hand will be their weakness and with just 5 returning starters the team will have to dive deep into the talent pool and the transfer portal to get better. Their schedule is a joke, really. Non-conference games are 4 must wins, and inside the conference they only have as challenges Alabama and Oklahoma. The team might be limited by their defense, but likely they will get plenty of wins.

Brian Kelly came to LSU in 2022 and the team won 10 games in each of the 2 seasons so far, including bowl wins in both seasons. The team was limited by Alabama’s dominance, but that might be over with their coaching change. LSU has changed the coordinators and that will have likely an impact, even they came from within. The offense lost their QB and their main target at WR, so they need a replacement here. But the talent pool is deep, and we might see the next big QB right from game one. The line will likely be also one of the best. Only RBs are a bit shaky, but with the line it should be productive. On the other hand, is the defense in a transition, but likely will match last season’s performance, which was not that good. It's open, how the team will fair. Non-conference games are likely must-wins, but USC at day 1 might be a challenge. And inside the conference Oklahoma, Alabama, Ole Miss are the top teams they have to play, and it will define the season.

In 2021 did Josh Heupel take over Tennessee and the team did peak in 2022 with 11 wins, including a bowl win. Last year the team took a step backward, mainly because they had a tougher schedule and Florida and Missouri got better. The offense will be led by a QB who did show his skills last year in the bowl against a tough defense, the WRs are almost all back, the RB is believed to have a breakthrough this season and the line will likely be better than last season with a star-transfer from LSU. So, offense side should be good. The defense was not that good last year, but good enough and it will be also in that category this season with a good line, a good LB core and some hope on the talent pool on the backfield. The secondary lost some key players, so they will have to find those starters from within, but I doubt the roster does not feature several players waiting for their chance. In total, the unit will be main reason the team will maybe make it to the playoffs or not. Playing NC State in week 2 highlights the non-conference games and the top teams inside the conference on the schedule are Alabama, Georgia and Oklahoma. I think they will get some more wins, than they might deserve, but that's how the game is.

And here is the team, which might surprise many teams and fans this season and which I did put in many of the other teams preview as team to watch on the schedule. Oklahoma is the 2nd new team inside the SEC and Brent Venables is in his 3rd season as HC. His 1st season was compared to the past 2 decades so bad (6-7) that I thought he will be fired fast, but last year the team did win 10 and did even win against Texas. Later they lost 2 crucial games, which did send them NOT to the BIG-12-Championship game, but overall, it looked like the turnaround or takeover made progress. Now, new conference, tougher opponents and a tough overall schedule. The offense has a good, if not great, QB, a good squad of WRs and a tough RB, who will hopefully not battle more injuries. But the offense will rise and fall behind a rebuilded o-line, which lost all starters. The Sooners usually have a big line, so there is no reason to believe the line will be bad, but the lack of chemistry might be a problem at the start. The defense returns 6 starters and should be good, but they will face now a much tougher competition. The non-conference games are fine I think, Tulane and Houston shouldn't be too tough as highlights here. But the conference schedule does feature all of the teams I did preview so far, except Georgia. Now that is a task. The team might upset some, all or none of those and will by that rise, fall or sink. It's hard to tell, where the team will land in this scenario. I personally believe, they will surprise some of the teams.

Mike Elko start at Duke was a phenomenon, his 2nd season still good. The Blue Devils fans will never know, where that coach would have taken that program to, since when Texas A&M did call him to become their HC with much more money and a much deeper football tradition, Elko was gone. So, the Aggies have a new HC and expectations couldn't be higher. The team did walk through some rough years with high expectations and results not matching them, so I'm not sure it's clever to do the same again, but for sure Elkos start at Duke does mirror to College Station. As many new HCs, the roster got a makeover with transfers and from the talent pool, plus of course some of the returning starters. They have a QB back from injury, some good WRs and RBs, a line which returns 3 starters. The defense got several transfers to boost the line, the LBs and the DBs, so hard to tell, how this all will come together. The 1st gameday is against Notre Dame and we will see, how that will turn out. The other non-conference games are must wins. The conference schedule is quite weak, featuring only Missouri, LSU and Texas as contenders and all at home! There won't be better preconditions than that to start under a new HC inside the SEC, so hope is, the team will win more than last year (7 games) and will play better over the season. The cherry would be a win against Texas (old rivalry) on last gameday and a high-profile bowl win, if not even a playoff spot.

Hugh Freezes 1st year at Auburn was OK I think, the team won 6 games, went to bowl, but lost that one. Now in his 2nd season the team has to grow. The WRs got some help to increase the quite bad squad performance of last year, the QB is in his 2nd season with the team, plays behind a line with 3 returning starters and the team has also a good RB. The defense has 5 returning starters, but the talent pool was already deep and got even some transfer additions. Weakest point will likely be a brand new secondary. The non-conference games are more or less must-wins, with Cal being the toughest team they have to play. But the schedule feature 5 teams from this preview higher up, so their conference record might be worse than last season. I think the team will become better; it might not just be a big rise in the win column.

Now we get to the last 6 teams in this preview and very likely none of them will have a say in the conference title game. We start with Florida, which still struggles to get back on top. The predecessor to the current HC had 10 wins, 11 wins, 8 wins and then 5 wins when he was fired prior the final game of the regular season. Billy Napier was hired for 2022 away from Louisiana and his results were 6 wins and 5 wins so far. Now in his 3rd season he faces doom. The offense will be quite OK, QB back, RB back, o-line has 3 starters back. The defense got an additional co-coordinator to improve the bad performance of last year and added several transfers and freshmen to get the quality of playing up. Even if that happens, the team plays Miami on day 1 and FSU on the last gameday as highlight on the non-conference schedule, plus 5 likely top teams inside the conference and only LSU is the closest at home. Overall, the team will face a tough season and we don't know, how much improvement is needed to save Napiers job. The program doesn't like losing, so they better start winning.

Next up, Kentucky, which I just can't get a hand on, whether they are lined up here correctly. Mark Stoops is in his 12th season, and he is very close to have an .500 or better record with the team. A team which didn't had a coach with a winning record since the late 50s. Stoops had one bad season at the start and then managed to get at least 5 wins and if the 2021 season wouldn't be under NCAA investigation and likely vacated wins (10 wins) because of players who got paid for jobs they did not perform, he would be over .500 already. That is a tremendous result for a school, which does focus more on basketball. Every season they perform better than expected. The offense is a bit in rebuilding mode with a transfer QB at the helm and at RB, but the WRs and especially the o-line are packed with returning starters. Even more packed is the defense with 9 returning starters, although the unit was not very good last season. The hope is, experience and a few transfers will help to get the performance up. The non-conference games are quite weak, except the rivalry game against Louisville at season end. Inside the conference the schedule is mixed, but has still 4 top teams to play, so expectations are, the total wins will not increase much, compared to last season, but with Kentucky you never know.

Shane Beamer is in his 4th season with South Carolina and the team did drop to 5 wins last year, after 8 in 2022. A QB from the roster will step in as new starter and a transfer on RB will be the workhorse. Weakest part on the offense is the o-line, which battled injuries last season. The defense switched the schema mid-season and that did help to become a better unit. They added now some transfers to bring the defense on a higher level, but whether that will be a success is open. The rivalry game against Clemson at season end will be tough, the remaining non-conference games are a joke. On the other hand, is the conference schedule quite tough and I doubt the team will actually reach a bowl this season, but you never know. If so, then likely it will be very close.

At Arkansas the HC Sam Pittman is in his 5th season and his overall record is almost equal, but with peak seasons in 2021 (9 wins with a bowl win included) and 2022 (7 wins, also with a bowl win) and low seasons in 2020 (Corona season, 3 wins) and 2023 with 4 wins. That's not the development the program wants to see, of course. The HC has hired former Arkansas HC Bobby Petrino (who was fired in before season 2012, because a relationship with a staff member come to light, which might have had a big influence on why the staff member was hired and how the member was treated) as new OC and hope is high, that Petrino will spark the offense. Beside the WR-squad, more or less all projected starters are transfer players, so everything is possible. If they click the unit might explode with performance, if not or just in parts, the result might not as good as hoped or expected. The defense did improve last year but dropped in performance late in the season. A bunch of transfers was brought in to stabilize the unit. Non-conference games are highlighted by Oklahoma State early in the season, the rest might be must wins, or at least in favor of Arkansas. Inside the conference the team avoids some of top contenders, but still has to face 5 of the top 8 teams in this preview, so don't expect too many wins on top of last season’s results, except the team did find the key to get back together. Some say, Pittman is on a hot seat. Could be.

Mississippi State did drop hard last year. Their HC had died in late 2022 and the program did promote the DC to HC in the off-season. He did last 10 gamedays and an interim HC did lead the team to the end of the season, finishing 5-7. A new HC was hired, Jeff Lebby, former OC of Oklahoma and Ole Miss. The team does return only 2 starters and the roster had some major transitions, incoming and outgoing, so the staff is in a full rebuilding mode. Hope is the offense will get a spark by the capable former OC now HC with a lot of transfers coming in. The defense has those 2 returning starters, but that unit last year was one of the worst, if not THE worst, of the SEC. Means the new coordinator will have to work with the roster and has to find the pieces to improve the unit at least a bit to eventually getting the team back into a bowl. They might be able to cash in 4 wins in the non-conference games, with the toughest team being Arizona State. Crucial will be to squeeze out somewhere those remaining wins and that will be tough. Best bet would be Arkansas, Texas A&M and Florida, all at home. But I would not bet the farm on that.

And again, last in the preview is Vanderbilt. Clark Lea is in his 4th season with the team and even Vanderbilt is a bit different than other SEC schools (team career record is below .500) the program does not except too many losing seasons. The best HC in the past 20 years was bye the way James Franklin (.615), who bolted after 1 OK and 2 good, if not great, seasons, to Penn State. Before him and after him the records of HC are for a long time negative (I found a 2-season winning record streak by a HC who was also hired away after that 2nd season in the mid-70s). The current one had 2 wins last year and that is not enough. So, 4th season, a new OC (coming from New Mexico State with the former NMS HC Kill as analyst on top) was hired to get some live in the bad offense of last year. The QB of NMS transfers also, which should help. But the rest will be for sure a rebuilding / re-shuffling of players to find the right mix. Lea will guide the defense personally now and brought in several transfers to get out of the cellar of the SEC. Virginia Tech at season start might be too much, but the other 3 non-conference games might be in reach for 3 wins. Inside the conference the schedule is tough and very likely too tough to win enough games to get to a bowl game. Looks like another long season for the Commodores.

The 2 new teams and the new conference format does reshuffle the rhythm of the past decade. The teams will have to adjust to the changes, and some will find the hard reality maybe later in years, when they will have the toughest schedule of the season and others will benefit from weaker schedules. But that was the case also in the past, the pool just got deeper, which likely means, it will get more unlikely to have THAT tough season or THAT easy one. For this season I look forward to a nice competition. The SEC has all the chances to bring into the playoffs between 4 and 6 teams, which will help them to boost their status. The SEC Champ will have a bye week, for sure.

And that's it for the last preview.

Means, I can shift to the real purpose of this blog, the games.

I did think about posting the preview of the SEC and a day later the preview of week zero, but that did not make much sense, so I include it here.

This season week zero is a disappointment. Last year we had 7 games, with some bigger teams in it, like Notre Dame and USC and some interesting teams, like San Diego State and New Mexico State and no FCS teams. It was still not the best week zero, still OK.

This year we have only 4 games and of those 2 have FCS teams in it.

Highlight of week zero is since 2022 (even I did not name it that way the past 2 seasons) the Aer Lingus College Football Classic in Ireland. This seems to be planned also beyond this season, matchups are planned until 2027.

But let's jump into the previews.

The BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 0

Sat. Aug 24
#10 Florida State @ Georgia Tech
This is the Aer Lingus College Football Classic, played in the Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland. Last year with Notre Dame punishing Navy they had a record crowd of 49.000 people in the stadium.
This season we have basically a regular ACC matchup between a projected ACC contender and a team, which would like to get past a mid-level-team status. Georgia Tech had won a game in Ireland already, 2016 against Boston College, which was the 1st under the new marketing name.
But this season the odds are highly against them.
FSU, who never played in Ireland before, is favored by 10.5 points, which is not as much as I did expect.
I doubt the matchup will lead to another record crowd but expect roughly 40.000 to 43.000 seeing an interesting season start, in which FSU can either justify their favorite role, or create the 1st problem of the season.
My expectation is, FSU will win here by double digits.
Seminoles win.

SMU @ Nevada
And here we have a much less open game.
SMU did join the ACC and is at least in the upper mix of the conference contenders. They face a Nevada team, which couldn't get much worse and which will likely end in the lower end of the Mountain West.
No wonder the betting line is SMU -25.0.
Since I do not pick on the line, just on a win, I expect a clear win by SMU here.
Mustangs win.

And the other interesting games are (all remaining):

Montana State @ New Mexico
Another low-level team from the Mountain West, this time playing a FCS team.
The problem here is, Montana State is a very solid FCS team, which reached the playoffs last year and lost only on OT in 2nd round against North Dakota State, who made it to the semis.
Inside the FCS they are pre-season ranked at #4.
No wonder the betting line in this game is actually in favor or the FCS team, surprisingly very high.
Montana State is favored by 11.5 points.
I have doubts on this kind of result.
Mendenhall, the HC of New Mexico, is a good coach and the team plays the season opener at home.
ESPN users expect 68% a Lobos win.
It will likely come down to preparation and motivation. Montana State can absolutely win here, I still do expect a win by New Mexico, in a close game.
Lobos win.

Delaware State @ Hawai'i
On the other hand, we have this matchup, which is likely a joke.
We have an east coast FCS team, which had 1 win last year, flying all over the continent, halfway over the pacific to play ON Hawai'i against a Mountain West team, which will eventually end up mid-level of the conference on season start.
Betting line Hawai'i -40.0.
This might not become such a slaughterhouse, especially if the Rainbows try not to drive up the score, but a clear Hawai'i win is very, very likely.
Rainbow Warriors win.

One of the weakest week zero lineups in recent years, but since this is a bonus anyway and the real season starts next week, don't be too disappointed.

'Til next time
Jack6 on BLOCK OF GRANITE

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